Week 10 Street FA Report

Updated: November 8th 2022

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

 

Add of the Week

Kalif Raymond, WR, DET (Owned 32%)

Week 9: 3 Rec/17 yards

The Lions have been in a number of shootouts this season which means plenty of scoring opportunities. We have yet to receive a definitive timeline on if/when rookie Jameson Williams will be available to play and D.J. Chark has been out since week 4. Meanwhile, Kalif Raymond has played on 85 percent of the Lions’ snaps since week 5 and was having solid, double digit PPR production till last week’s snooze-fest against Green Bay. Expect that the Lions will return to their high scoring ways moving forward and Raymond should continue to produce as an under the radar WR4 while acting as the WR2 for Detroit.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

RB Adds

Jerick McKinnon, RB, KC (Owned 47%)

Week 9: 3 Car/4 yards, 6 Rec/40 yards

Sixty-eight (68) pass attempts is a lot, even for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, which is likely why Jerrick McKinnon saw 62 percent of the snaps in week 9. Still, with two (2) consecutive weeks now of Isaiah Pacheo eating away at Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s carries the more consistent option, especially in PPR leagues, might just be McKinnon week-to-week now. He has worked primarily as the passing down option and for a team that likes to throw the ball as much in the red-zone as any other, if you are starving for running back support in the final month of the fantasy season see if McKinnon is still out there.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

WR Add

DeAndre Carter, WR, LAC (Owned 38%)

Week 9: 5 Rec/53 yards

DeAndre Carter’s value is directly linked to the availability of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to the Chargers. In both of their absence last week Carter put up a season best five (5) receptions and played on over 80 percent of the Chargers’ offensive snaps. If both continue to be out, which could be very likely, Carter offers deep WR4/5 appeal in the meantime.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Cade Otton, TE, TB (Owned 44%)

Week 9: 5 Rec/68 yards, 1 TD

Similar to Isaiah Likely last week there were many managers who may have moved on from Cade Otton when he was not providing much consistency. Frankly, it was looking like another bust performance last week before exploding on the final drive for three (3) receptions and his first career touchdown. Trust has a funny way of building momentum though and we know that Tom Brady looks to those he trusts the most in big moments. While the rest of the receivers were dropping open passes last week, Brady looked for Otton on consistently on the final drive. Could this be building to a fantasy postseason breakout? How much Cameron Brate really factors into the offense if/when he is healthy would be the big concern for Otton the rest of the season.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Phillip Dorsett, WR, HOU (Owned 9%)

Week 9: 3 Rec/69 yards

There is obvious turmoil between the Texans organization and Brandin Cooks which led to him being absent from last week’s game. We have no indication if he will sit out the remainder of the season or not but with Nico Collins also nursing an injury this presents an opportunity for other receivers to see more targets. Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore benefited from these opportunities last week and Dorsett especially could benefit from the “garbage time” points phenomenon as the Texans run through a gauntlet of opponents to end the season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 1 Street FA Report

Updated: September 7th 2019

Football season is back! Once again this year I will be publishing an article each week to recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Preston Williams, WR – MIA (Owned 41%)

The Miami Dolphins have made decisions that suggest they are already looking ahead to the 2020 offseason. Moving on from your best offensive lineman (Laremy Tunsil), their most reliable wide receiver (Kenny Stills), and a solid starting linebacker (Kiko Alonso) a week before the season starts doesn’t really help you win games. While it may be tough to watch the Dolphins this season there is at least one player worth monitoring, rookie UDFA Preston Williams. Williams was tremendous in his final year at Colorado State with a stat line of 98/1345/14. Matt Miller of Bleacher Report suggested that “On the field, Williams has huge – maybe even first round – potential”. Of course, Williams did not go in the first round due to his off field issues but he has looked impressive in training camp and during the preseason. He was sat during the final preseason game which is usually a statement that players are set into the starting lineup. He is nowhere near startable at this point but he definitely needs to be rostered (or practice squaded) in all leagues. With the cast of misfit receivers around him (Devante Parker, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, Allen Hurns) it wouldn’t be surprising to see Williams become the primary option in the passing game for the Miami Dolphins by the quarter mark of the season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 ($450,000 Practice Squad)

RB Adds

Frank Gore, RB – BUF (Owned 45%)

Frank Gore is the “Tom Brady cliché” of running backs. People say that he’s done, goes undervalued and then steals the youth from the young players around him and exceeds his value. With the release of LeSean McCoy, there has been a movement that Devin Singletary will become the next bell cow. Despite this believe Gore is being listed above him on the depth chart and T.J. Yeldon surviving the roster cutdowns which means that he should have a role as the third-down back. Until we actually see real-game action we can’t eliminate all possibilities for touches in this backfield. Gore is just sitting there in half the leagues so why not drop that waiver fodder clogging up the end of your roster and at least see what Gore still has left for 2019.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Dare Ogunbowale, RB – TB (Owned 38%)

The Tampa Bay backfield has been a place that people have been hoping for an incoming rookie to take over the last couple of years. There was a frenzy when Ronald Jones was selected by the team in 2018 but he was a major disappointment and was outplayed by journeyman Peyton Barber. Now in 2019, it seems to be playing out similar to last year with Jones losing out to Barber but with an interesting wrinkle, Dare Ogunbowale being listed as the starting third-down back. The team moved on from their other third-down option, Andre Ellington, which means that it is should be Ogunbowale’s primary role but could he earn more? He looked good as a runner in the preseason, albeit against backups and practice squad guys but you can only play your best against the opponents lined up against you. This scenario may play out similar to another running back that Bruce Arians held back until he couldn’t anymore, David Johnson. Johnson was primarily used as a kick returner and on third downs for the first month behind veteran Chris Johnson. When it became apparent that Johnson could be something Arians gave him a shot and he hasn’t looked back since 2015. Obunbowale is not as talented as Johnson, but competing against Barber and Jones he has a real shot to take more than just the third-down touches as the season moves along. He’s the ideal candidate for practice squads now to wait and see if he can emerge as one of those RBs that seems to come out of nowhere each year in fantasy.

Suggested Bid: $450,000 (Practice Squad)

WR Adds

Damion Willis, WR – CIN (Owned 13%)

The Bengals announced that UDFA Damion Willis will be the starting receiver opposite to Tyler Boyd while A.J. Green is out of the lineup. Despite this, his ownership has barely increased in RSO (13%) which is surprising. Sure the Bengals are not the Chiefs or Saints in terms of high powered offenses but a team’s WR2 should at least rosterable heading into the season. He had a solid third preseason game (3/55/1) as a starter so he should be on the field and used by new head coach Zac Taylor. He’s another prime candidate for practice squads in week 1.

Suggested Bid: $400,000 (Practice Squad)

Phillip Dorsett, WR – NE (Owned 17%)

The Patriots have transitioned from a team that had only one viable fantasy wide receiver (Julian Edelman) to a team filled with a half dozen options of various expectations. An option that might be going under the radar right now is Phillip Dorsett. He seems to have a rapport with Tom Brady and should be the third receiver after Edelman and Josh Gordon he looks for. The beauty of Dorsett’s game is that he possesses the ability to be both a quick screen option like Edelman and be a deep ball threat like Gordon. In the case of either missing time, he has several paths to immediate fantasy relevance. For now, he remains bench depth but with Edelman’s hand holding him out of much of preseason and Josh Gordon frequently being in and out of suspensions, Dorsett is definitely rosterable.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Vernon Davis, TE – WAS (Owned 8%)

Tell me if you’ve heard this report before, Jordan Reed suffers a head injury and is in the concussion protocol? We haven’t heard yet if Reed will be cleared to play in week 1 which means that Vernon Davis has the potential be starting. You are hopefully rostering better option at tight end than Vernon Davis but if you don’t have one of the three auto-starts (Kelce, Ertz, Kittle) Davis could be a player that gets more opportunities to start if Reed gets hurt more throughout the season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (10%)

Jaron Brown, WR – SEA (Owned 9.5%)

Jaron Brown was a surprise cut on Saturday but now that he has been brought back it makes sense from a roster and cap management standpoint. With D.K. Metcalf nursing an injury there are opportunities for Brown to play opposite Tyler Lockett for at least the first couple games of the season. Similarly to why Damion Willis needs to be rostered it just makes sense that Brown should be added to RSO rosters heading into the season as Seattle’s WR2. He may not be anything by this time next week if Metcalf can become healthy but Brown is free right now so why not throw the dart on a receiver tied to Russell Wilson.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 2 Street FA Report

Updated: September 12th 2018

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Phillip Lindsay, RB – DEN (Owned 10.5%)

Week 1: 15 Car/71 yards, 2 Rec/31 yards, 1 TD

All offseason it was thought that Devontae Booker was the only obstacle standing between Royce Freeman and a bell-cow workload. After week 1 however, it was fellow rookie running back Phillip Lindsay who seems to have pushed his way into the backfield rotation. Both he and Freeman had 15 attempts but Lindsay was also targeted 3 times in the passing game, catch two passes and scoring once. Booker also received two targets so it will be interesting to see if all three will be involved in both the rushing and receiving game moving forward. Regardless, it is clear that Lindsay is more than just a dynasty stash moving forward and will continue to have a role within the Broncos’ offense. If an injury was to occur to either Freeman or Booker it may lead to Lindsay being a consistent option.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000 – $5,000,000

RB Add

Darren Sproles, RB – PHI (Owned 15.4%)

Week 1: 5 Car/10 yards, 4 Rec/22 yards

Darren Sproles was an afterthought with fantasy fans expecting Corey Clement to take over the receiving back role after a strong finish to 2017. It appears, however, that Sproles isn’t done just yet as he received 7 targets in the opener last Thursday. Neither Clement nor Jay Ajayi received a single target. With many of Philly’s games likely to be competitive this season, it is fair to assume that Sproles will continue to have value in PPR leagues as an emergency option at RB.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 – $1,500,000

WR Add

Phillip Dorsett, WR – NE (Owned 27%)

Week 1: 7 Rec/66 yards, 1 TD

So Chris Hogan isn’t the only receiver worth owning in New England? Phillip Dorsett led all wideouts with 7 targets (excluding Gronkowski) converting all of them and adding a touchdown. We will see what the Patriots’ game plan is week-to-week but we know when Tom Brady trusts a receiver he is going to get the ball, a lot. Julian Edelman is still suspended for three more games which will give Dorsett three more opportunities to build a rapport with Brady before he returns. Even when Edelman is back it is likely that Dorsett fills the Brandin Cooks role from a year ago as an intermediate option that can take the lid off with his speed when asked. He’s a fringe WR4/5 that can be someone to hold in deeper leagues.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000 – $2,000,000

Ryan Grant, WR – IND (Owned 23.2%)

Week 1: 8 Rec/59 yards

I didn’t realize that I liked Grant as much as I did but after featuring him twice last year and in week 1 leading the Colts with eight receptions he needs to be owned in leagues with 3+ starting receivers. The Colts are still passing more than anyone else (53 attempts) and their running game is still incompetent which means that they are only going to win games by moving the ball through the air. T.Y. Hilton will always garner the number one coverage from the other team which should leave lots of 1-on-1 matchups for Grant. If he can add a touchdown once or twice a month on top of last week’s stat line he’s going to be a starter for most deep leagues on a weekly basis. As of now he a great matchup flex option.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000 – $3,000,000

Geronimo Allison, WR – GB (Owned 39%)

Week 1: 5 Rec/69 yards, 1 TD

Green Bay was in pass mode for most of the second half which may have contributed to Allison receiving eight targets in Sunday night’s game. Still, the biggest question was who was going to be the third receiver in this offense after they kept seven at roster cut downs. The Packers are frequently in the top percentile for running 3WR sets which means that Allison will have more opportunities to see open coverage with defenses primarily focused on Davante Adams, Jimmy Graham, and even Randall Cobb. He’s more of a stash at this point but could be an injury away from a big workload.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 – $1,000,000

TE Add

Jonnu Smith – TE, TEN (Owned 38%)

Week 1: 1 Rec/12 yards

It was a tough week for tight ends as both Greg Olsen and Delaine Walker went down with significant injuries. While Olsen may have a chance to come back at some point this season Walker has already been ruled out for the year which leaves sophomore Jonnu Smith to fill his role in Tennessee. Smith was already a player many fantasy players targeted as the next breakout tight end and with Walker cleared from the depth chart this will likely be the season we see if he can handle the responsibility. The Titans week 1 game was a mess with multiple rain delays and an injury to Marcus Mariota disrupting all momentum so it is difficult to gauge new coordinator Matt LaFleur’s offense. In week 2 hopefully, it will feature Smith as much as it did Walker.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000 – $2,000,000

Sleeper Add (<10%)

Austin Carr, WR – NO (5.4%)

Week 1: 2 Rec/20 yards

An interesting week 1 active roster player, Austin Carr was able to get in on the high scoring game by catching both of his targets. While Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara will always be the primary options for Drew Brees, 29 targets between the two, the Saints only have journeyman Ted Ginn Jr. and rookie Trey’Quan Smith as real threats to Carr as the number two receiver. It may not be an immediate thing but by midseason Carr could become the third option that we thought Willie Snead was going to be last year. If their defense is as bad as it was in week one it means that there should be plenty of opportunities at least due to the positive game script.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 – $1,000,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Maximizing Quarterback Value

Updated: March 17th 2016

The year of the breakout first or second year quarterback is over.  Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr all took positive steps in 2015 that have created a buzz among their fan bases and fantasy owners alike.  Speaking purely in terms of their fantasy value, could the hype make these players overvalued in dynasty football?  We’ll examine further as we explore the 3 steps to maximizing quarterback value.

Step 1: Sell young quarterbacks who broke through in 2015  

QB Jameis Winston

Time to sell as Buccaneers’ QB Jameis    Winston’s stock has never been higher

Immediately upon reading that, you may recoil.  You may be asking yourself, “Why would I want to give up a young QB who appears to be on the track towards becoming useful in fantasy on a week to week basis?”  The answer is simple.  They’re worth more on the trade market than they are on your roster.  2015 was a breakout fantasy year for Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr as many became serviceable plays in the right matchups.  The assumption among many in the fantasy community is that these players will continue on that positive trajectory.  However we’ve seen countless examples of quarterbacks showing promise, yet never quite making it to that tier of elite fantasy quarterbacks.  If we look back just seven months ago, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Tannehill were two of the hottest names in dynasty football.  Both were selected among the top 7 quarterbacks in start-up dynasty mock drafts according to Dynasty League Football’s August 2015 Average Draft Position data.  After having disappointing seasons, neither is drafted among the top 16 quarterbacks in DLF’s Feb 2016 ADP data.  Imagine if Bridgewater and Tannehill owners had a do-over.  Think they wish they’d cashed in on the buzz surrounding these quarterbacks entering the 2015 season?  Of course.  For every exception like Andrew Luck or Cam Newton, there are cautionary tails that failed to launch themselves into the elusive grouping of elite quarterbacks.

Step 2: Buy undervalued veteran quarterbacks outside of the elite tier and focus your most valuable resources towards wide receivers 

These types of quarterbacks are severely undervalued in many Reality Sports Online leagues, yet many were productive in 2015.  According to Fantasy Pros 2015 fantasy points per game datawhich uses settings similar to RSO’s standard scoring, Drew Brees ranked 4th place in points per game, Carson Palmer 6th, Andy Dalton 10th, Kirk Cousins 12th, Eli Manning 14th, Ryan Fitzpatrick 15th, and Philip Rivers 16th.  If the rest of your roster is strong, you certainly can build a championship team by acquiring one or two of these types of quarterbacks each year.  To take full advantage of this strategy, you’ll need to be aggressive in free agency and the trade market since you’ll be targeting these quarterbacks who are often and preferably on short-term deals.  

Instead of investing heavily in quarterbacks, my priority in RSO and standard dynasty leagues alike is to build my team around elite wide receivers.  From year to year, wide receivers hold their value significantly better than running backs.  These are the players that I want to invest in with my long-term contracts and that I value so highly in RSO leagues.  More specifically, I’m placing these long-term contracts on the high-priced elite wide receivers and players of all positions, except quarterback, that I believe in significantly more than the consensus of my opponents.  An example of this would be fantasy players that liked Michael Crabtree‘s potential last season.  Anyone who was smart enough to lock in Crabtree on multi-year contract at an inexpensive salary has profited significantly on Crabtree and will for years to come.  In the coming months, I will release a piece identifying several players that I’m targeting with these long-term contracts in start-up drafts and free agency.  

Brees

Saints’ QB Drew Brees is the perfect type of veteran to target

If we relate this strategy of profitability back to quarterbacks, the buzz around these young quarterbacks is so high that they are going to cost a lofty price in start-up drafts.  The opportunity to profit is minimal, at best.  In established leagues, you only have these quarterbacks for 3-4 years from when they enter the league before you have to franchise tag them or allow them to enter free agency.  How many times during those 3-4 years will they actually be a top 5, difference making quarterback?  Blake Bortles was the only QB1  quarterback ranked in the top 10 in points per game among quarterbacks to play in at least 7 games.  Marcus Mariota placed 17th, Jameis Winston 18th, and Derek Carr 19th.  Mariota, Winston, and Carr could all take another step forward and still not crack the top 10 in points per game, which would make them not even an average fantasy starter.  The price to acquire your preference of Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, or Ryan Fitzpatrick is very low in start-up drafts or even through trades in established leagues.  Make the move for one or two of these quarterbacks and allocate most of your resources elsewhere.

Step 3: Avoid drafting quarterbacks in rookie drafts

Cardinals’ RB David Johnson, taken outside of the 1st round in 2015 rookie drafts, burst onto the scene late in the season

RB David Johnson, taken outside of the 1st Rd    in 2015 drafts, burst onto the scene late in the season

When building a team on Reality Sports Online, I am most concerned with how my players can outperform what they cost for me to acquire them, whether it’s through the draft or free agency.  As we’ve discussed earlier, rookie quarterbacks offer the lowest chance of profitability while they remain on your roster.  Aside from the value they may have in trades, quarterbacks in rookie drafts don’t have the breakout potential and weekly “start-ability” that you can find in running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.  If we take another look at DLF’s August 2015 ADP data, all of these players were taken outside of the top 10 in rookie drafts: David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Tyler Lockett, Devin Funchess, Jeremy Langford, Jay Ajayi, Javorius Allen, Matt Jones, Tevin Coleman, Phillip Dorsett, David Cobb, Jaelen Strong, Maxx Williams, Cameron Artis-Payne, Ty Montgomery, and Zach Zenner.  Thomas Rawls even went undrafted.  Locking players like these in for 3-4 years allows you to profit significantly on these picks as they are much more likely to find ways into your lineups than quarterbacks will.  For example, rookie running backs can quickly become NFL starters and immediately fantasy RB1s: see how David Johnson and Thomas Rawls finished 2015.  Aside from Johnson and Rawls, there are many names in this group that hold more value going into 2016 than their RSO rookie contract would indicate.  In addition to profiting for the next 2 to 3 years, a few of these players may be worthy of the franchise tag for a season or two if their production warrants.  While you may hit on the occasional quarterback that you’re able to trade for profit after a breakout, the smarter strategy is to use your draft picks on other positions which feature a much better likelihood of profitability.


Personal Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999.  Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers keeper and dynasty leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each.

More Analysis by Dave Sanders