The Watch List 2021: Early RB Tiers

Updated: January 14th 2021

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done early rankings but in hindsight those feel counterproductive to my ultimate goal of creating RSO’s rookie rankings that are used in the draft room. Frankly, it’s hard to change a ranking because it feels “locked in” once I put it out into the world. When I would create my early rankings I would always start by grouping the players into themed tiers first, so that’s what I will be sharing in this series. Each tier includes players whose potential and plot line feel similar to me; the sequence of tiers is indicative of a general order of expected draft value. I’ll repeat though: these are not rankings. Within each tier players are sorted alphabetically.

(Note: This article was written between January 7-13. By the time you read this it’s likely that many players will have made official announcements about whether they will enter the NFL Draft, transfer or return to school. Rumors abound about each player’s decision but we’ll know for sure by the time you read this.)

1.01 Contenders

  • Travis Etienne

  • Najee Harris

  • Javonte Williams

Two of the names in this cohort should not surprise you. Both Travis Etienne and Najee Harris would have been 1.01 contenders in the 2020 class if they came out after their junior years; and they did nothing to dispel that potential for 2021. Etienne has been my favorite running back in this class since I first saw him as a true freshman. He has speed to spare and has grown as a player to become a better pass catcher and blocker. Etienne had a good but not great season — his yards per carry was down to 5.4 while his first three seasons were all over 7.2 — but he really showed up as a receiver with 48-588-2. Harris had a fantastic season and likely edges out Etienne in most 1.01 conversations but their final order will come down to their landing spot. Harris is a beast at 6020/230 and yet is nimble on his feet and is a plus pass catcher. He had nearly 1,900 yards from scrimmage and scored 30 TDs this season. Get ready for a vociferous debate all winter long about which is the better back. If one player has a chance at upsetting the proverbial 1.01 applecart, I would say it’s Javonte Williams. He had solid production his first two years as a Tar Heel but exploded onto the national radar with a crazy six-week midseason run in 2020. In those six games, all against ACC opponents, Williams rushed for 754 yards and 11 scores. He has average or better size, speed and pass catching ability. Every season there seems to be one player who catapults themselves into the conversation for the top rookie pick and Williams might have done enough this season that a successful offseason will jump him up fantasy draft boards.  (All of this 1.01 talk is assuming you’re not playing superflex. If you are, please take Trevor Lawrence. If you’re playing in a 1 QB league the value changes so you should go RB or WR, but if I’m being honest, I’d still find it hard to pass on Lawrence and the value he could bring in the RSO format.)

Day Two Targets

  • Kenny Gainwell

  • Kylin Hill

  • Chuba Hubbard

  • Zamir White

If recent history is any indication, Day Two is typically when the running back run happens in the NFL Draft. The guys taken in that range are destined to become the late 1st and early 2nd rounders in your rookie drafts. Like a few other players featured in this article, Kenny Gainwell decided to opt out of the 2020 season and get ready for the NFL Draft. He does so with the confidence that his stellar 2019 season at Memphis will be enough to land among the top handful of prospects at the position. Memphis has had a tremendous run of producing NFL running back talent and it seems that Gainwell may be the best of the bunch. His 2019 highlights and totals are eye popping: 231 carries for 1,459 yards and 13 TDs combined with 51 receptions for 601 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs. Gainwell is an excellent receiver and can accelerate into the secondary in a blink. He should test well which may quiet concerns about him being a one-year wonder. Kylin Hill has been on the cusp of breaking out for awhile now. His production crescendoed in 2019 as a junior when he put up a 1,350-10 season. Hill opted out after an injury in 2020 so we didn’t get to see much of him and will be relying on that 2019 tape to evaluate him. For whatever reason I never studied Kylin Hill closely so I need to fix that ASAP. Chuba Hubbard did play in 2020 and it’s likely that his average performance will cost him in terms of draft capital. Before the season I had predicted that Hubbard, a solid all-round back who can run with nuance, would be in the 1.01 conversation. He’s probably still a first round rookie pick but in terms of NFL value he may be better off returning for another season. Zamir White just can’t catch a break. The kid earned a near-perfect score as a recruit from 247Sports but endured back-to-back ACL tears which delayed the beginning of his college career. He contributed late in the 2019 season and was expected to star in 2020. He led the Bulldogs with 779-11 rushing but the season was off-kilter from the start between covid and a revolving door in the quarterback room. White will be a coveted early down runner at the next level whenever he decides to leave Athens.

Regular Season Risers

  • Michael Carter

  • Khalil Herbert

  • Jaret Patterson

The three backs I slotted here helped their NFL Draft stock immensely with their production in 2020 (ironically they are all also almost the exact same size at 5090/200). They may have started the season as being on the fringe of being draftable but now it’s possible they may have elevated themselves over some of the better-known names below. Let’s not fall too hard for recency bias though, these players will need to prove it throughout the pre-draft process as well. Michael Carter was the second head in the two-headed monster that was UNC’s rushing attack this season. In addition to 1,245-9 on the ground, Carter added 25-267-2 as a receiver (keep in mind that is in just eleven games). At 5080/199 he has a low center of gravity, and thick tree trunk-like legs, that make him a tough tackle. Carter has experience as a kick returner so I can easily see him earning a roster spot on special teams in training camp and then working his way into the offense. Admittedly, I have a blind spot for Khalil Herbert and am including him here based on his 2020 stats (1,183-8) and highlights (a very direct runner with 4.40 top end speed). Until I have a chance to study him further take Herbert’s placement with a grain of salt. The MAC played a six game season in 2020 so you’d think that Jaret Patterson didn’t have much time to wow amateur scouts like myself. You’d be wrong because he made the most of those opportunities. In mid-November he had back-to-back games with 301-4 and 409-8. That’s incredible, regardless of what level you’re playing at. Patterson led the MAC’s second-best running back, his teammate Kevin Marks, by a whopping 331 yards. His success was no fluke either: Patterson has fifteen career games with 100+ rushing yards. Patterson is small-ish, probably smaller than he’s listed, but he finds a way to get it done. A high draft pick and instant fantasy relevance may elude Patterson but I’m not going to bet against a guy who showed he can be a wildly productive high-volume running back.

Riddle-Wrapped Enigmas

  • Journey Brown

  • Jermar Jefferson

  • Trey Sermon

  • Stephen Carr

Journey Brown opted out of the 2020 season, a decision surely motivated by the 2021 NFL Draft. As a sophomore in 2019, Brown excelled down the stretch when he was the lead runner. In those last five games he averaged 118 yards per game and scored 9 TDs. Brown ticks a lot of boxes — ideal measurables at 5110/217, 4.40 speed, sublime contact balance — but he has just one game in his career where he handled 20+ carries and only three with 15+ carries. Brown has talent but I’m wary to project him too high in my rankings. After his 1,380 yard freshman season I assumed we would be talking highly of Jermar Jefferson in 2021 but an injury plagued sophomore season slowed his progress. His 6.5 yards per carry in 2020 was his best yet so maybe I should be feeling more bullish on his future fantasy value. Jefferson is a balanced back who has above average speed, elusiveness, power and balance. I wrote about Trey Sermon heading into the championship game and was looking forward to a big game to cement his rising draft stock. Sadly he got hurt on his first carry of the game and didn’t return. I still think Sermon’s slashing running style will find a home in the NFL. Oh, Stephen Carr. I gushed about this guy way back in 2017 when he was a highly touted true freshman but injuries and ineffectiveness limited his touches in the intervening years. He popped up with two scores in the Trojans’ first two games in 2020 and then had just 24 carries in the last four games. I refuse to give up on him, even if USC has.

Pass Catching Playmakers

  • Max Borghi

  • Deon Jackson

  • Isaih Pacheco

Heading into the 2020 season I was very excited about Max Borghi. I thought he could be the NFL’s next great pass catching back because he has the ability to stretch the defense horizontally before punishing would-be tacklers when he turns upfield. Unfortunately a back injury sidelined him for all but one game so it seems unlikely he makes the jump for 2021. Deon Jackson is my current pick for the out-of-nowhere fantasy relevant rookie running back in 2021. He was an unheralded 3-star recruit back in 2016 and averaged just 4.3 yards per carry in his career on some middling Duke teams. When I watched him for my Week 7 preview, I noted that he is patient but decisive. I saw fantastic skills as a receiver and saw him trusted in pass protection. I’ll be following Jackson closely in the pre-draft process to see if he starts to earn any plaudits from draft pundits. I root hard for my hometown Rutgers Scarlet Knights (although the Michigan Wolverines were my first love) so it’s exciting to finally highlight one of my favorite “choppers.” Isaih [sic] Pacheco has super lateral quickness and deploys a deadly horizontal cut at the line of scrimmage that sets him up for big runs off the edge. He’s a plus receiver and I think he’ll test well athletically. Unfortunately there’s literally zero cut-ups out there for Pacheco so I’m going off memory here and can’t wait for him to receive some well deserved exposure.

Spacey Satellites

  • Javian Hawkins

  • Pooka Williams

Hawkins and Williams are both smaller prospects who are likely to be seen as “space” players at the pro level. Both players feature blazing speed and quickness. Hawkins, listed at 5090/196, runs with a ferociousness that belies his frame. I doubt he himself is convinced he can’t be between-the-tackles runner in the NFL. I watched Hawkins against Miami back in September and was impressed with how he ran against the 17th ranked ‘Canes. Hawkins, whose nickname is Playstation because of his video game-like moves, had a career-high 16 receptions in 2020 and will need to continue to develop as a receiver as that’s likely to be a part of his role in the NFL. Pooka Williams, 5100/170, isn’t afraid of a little contact either but his game is predicated on his impressive ability to stop and change direction on a dime. He’s also an angle buster when he breaks through the second level which makes it even harder for safeties and corners to catch him. Williams played in just four games this season before opting out for family reasons; those four performances were lackluster and didn’t help his draft stock if I’m being honest. He also has a domestic violence arrest in his past so Williams comes with baggage that teams will need to unpack. I think Williams may be best served by returning to Kansas and reminding us once again why we loved watching him.

Undervalued, Underdrafted

  • Keaontay Ingram

  • Brian Robinson

  • Larry Rountree

  • CJ Verdell

The four players in this tier are Power 5 guys who I feel may be undervalued right now, and as such, will be underdrafted when it comes to your 2021 rookie drafts. Keaontay Ingram was a big cog in the Longhorns’ offense in his first two seasons on campus, coming in as a heralded 4-star recruit. Unfortunately, an ankle injury cut his 2020 season short. Ingram runs with a suddenness and forward pad lean that I think will translate to the pros. He also has excellent hands out of the backfield. If Brian Robinson were on any other team than Alabama he’d probably be an All-Conference player and find himself high atop these rankings. I’ve highlighted him a few times on The Watch List, always waiting for his breakout that never quite came. Robinson has great size at 6000/226 and I have previously noted that he runs with vision. I’ll take an educated guess that more than one team will see him as ready-made for the NFL. Perhaps most undervalued on this list is Larry Rountree. He was the main reason that recent iterations of the Mizzou Tigers weren’t even more irrelevant in the SEC. Rountree is trending upward at just the right time: in 2020 he increased his per-touch numbers, and set a career-high for both rushing touchdowns (14) and receptions (15). Rountree may not be a sexy name but to me he looks like the type of back who can stick around. I watched CJ Verdell’s opening match against Stanford this year and was impressed with his brute force running style. His signature play from the game, and the one sure to feature on his NFL Draft coverage, is a bone crunching hit he delivers to two Cardinals at the goal line to force his way in for the points. He caught two balls in that game and I thought he should have been featured more as a receiver (he did have 27 receptions as a frosh). I’m not sure that Verdell has reached his potential yet and that’s saying something for somebody who has two 1,000 yard campaigns under his belt.

Short Yardage Specialists

  • Rakeem Boyd

  • Stevie Scott

  • Master Teague

These three backs were difficult for me to place in my running back hierarchy. It’s not that these guys didn’t catch any passes in college — Boyd and Scott each have a 20+ reception season in their past — it’s that I feel their future role will be limited to a situational runner. They may get drafted above some of the aforementioned players but in terms of fantasy value they will be lacking. Vulturing some touchdowns is nice but touchdowns are difficult to predict and as such I would often lean towards a player with a better chance at reliable touches. Stevie Scott is the biggest of the bunch here (6020/231) but is likely the most limited of the trio. I liked what I saw of Boyd when I did a quick study of him early in the season, however he struggled for much of 2020. I coined a phrase to describe him: a wallop-gallop runner. I didn’t watch the season on which he was featured but he was a star on Last Chance U if you’re interested in seeing some of his back story.  I think Teague has the most natural talent of these later round options and has a chance to transcend a situational role. He has a small-ish sample size and has dealt with a number of serious injuries throughout his career (concussion, Achilles, foot) so I would actually expect him to return to Ohio State for his senior season and hopefully put together a full season.

Small School Sleepers

  • Spencer Brown

  • Brenden Knox

  • Elijah Mitchell

  • Trey Ragas

My “Small School Sleepers” would usually include some solid FCS players to watch, however we largely missed out on an FCS season. Side note: doesn’t it feel like those early season games featuring teams like Central Arkansas and Campbell were played three years ago? 24 of the 26 players featured above are all Power 5 prospects so I figured this was the spot to share some Group of Five love. Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell were mainstays for the Ragin’ Cajuns for the last four years. Ragas accumulated 4,001 career yards from scrimmage and 43 touchdowns; meanwhile Mitchell totaled 3,864 and 46. That’s a hell of a duo. Ragas and Mitchell popped up on The Watch List back in 2018 and 2019 but I have not recently watched them so they deserve some closer attention this offseason. Spencer Brown dazzled as a true freshman but fell out of favor with #DraftTwitter after a lackluster junior season. In a shortened 2020 senior season he put up good totals — 10 TDs, six games with 100+ yards — but I recall that he looked pedestrian for the most part in his showcase game against Miami. I’m not sure that Brown has NFL-level ability when it comes to power, speed or receiving but there’s something to be said for dur-ability and avail-ability. Way back in 2018 and 2019 I had said that Brown could be “a star in the making” and surmised that he could “find a role in the NFL as an early down runner.” I may have missed the mark there but I have a soft spot for Brown and hope he gets a shot in the NFL. Brenden Knox always makes me question my spell checker — that’s two Es and no As please. Knox capitalized on the increased attention at the beginning of the season when most of the Power 5 was still idle, averaging 112 yards per game and scoring nine times in his first six games. I see a back with the jump and the juice to get the edge and the power to move the pile. As a junior with two more years of eligibility we may not see him hit the draft in 2021 but he’s somebody we should study closely when he does.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2021 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com, nflmockdraftdatabase.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List: 2019 Big 12 Season Preview

Updated: July 28th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma.  An Oklahoma quarterback has won the last two Heisman trophies so this was a pretty easy prediction.  Hurts is an efficient quarterback who makes few mistakes.  I’m sure head coach Lincoln Riley will have Hurts playing in a more aggressive fashion this season which will help increase his counting stats.  In order to get serious Heisman consideration, I think Hurts will need to be on pace for 3,500 total yards and 40 TDs and leading his team to the playoff.

Underclassman to Watch: Pooka Williams, RB, Kansas.  Pooka starred as a freshman for the Jayhawks, earning All-Big 12 and Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors. In eleven games, he had over 1,400 yards from scrimmage (161 carries, 33 receptions) and 9 TDs; plus, he handled kick return duties.  His ability to combine hesitation with elite acceleration and long-speed is impressive.  I was also surprised to see how often he broke tackles or bowled over would-be tacklers despite his 5110/170 size.  One thing to keep in mind is that Williams was suspended this offseason during a domestic violence investigation; afterwards, he was subsequently suspended for the season opener.  If Williams can show personal growth off the field and add some girth on it, we’ll be talking about him near the top of the 2021 class.

Newcomer of the Year: Austin Kendall, QB, West Virginia.  There will be a changing of the guard in Morgantown this year.  Out goes QB Will Grier who led the Mountaineers attack the last two years; also leaving is head coach Dana Holgorsen who left for Houston.  Austin Kendall, a grad transfer, leaves Oklahoma to join new West Virginia head coach Neal Brown.  Brown recruited Kendall back when he was an assistant at Kentucky so presumably they already have a relationship.  Brown says the quarterback competition is open but all three preview magazines I consulted predict he’ll win the job.  Kendall ended up behind Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray at OU and escapes another season on the bench in Norman.  In very limited action in 2016 and 2018, Kendall completed 71.8% of his passes and tossed three touchdowns to zero interceptions.  He has two years of eligibility remaining so he’ll have two bites at the apple.

Coaching Carousel: Les “The Mad Hatter” Miles is back in our college football lives as he takes over at Kansas.  Les has a reputation as being a zealous play caller who is unafraid to take chances.  I think his personality can rub some people the wrong way, recently evidenced by some of the push back he’s receiving for the suspension of Pooka Williams.  He said he “stands by” the suspension even though it wasn’t his decision.  I won’t comment on the incident itself, but I have a feeling we’re going to end up with some troublesome sound bite from Miles regarding the situation before long.  Miles has a career coaching record of 142-55 and finished 9-3 in his final full season at LSU.  Kansas has only won nine games total in the last five seasons.  It’s a good hire for the Jayhawks to jump start the program, but I don’t think Miles is the type who can be the long term answer — time will tell.

Players to Watch

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

CeeDee Lamb has been a devy favorite for over two years now since he joined the Sooners as a touted 4-star recruit, eschewing offers of home-state titans Texas and Texas A&M.  I recall seeing Lamb play in his rookie season and thinking he looked a little light but he’s filled out his frame and is now listed at 6020/189.  As a freshman, he recorded 46 receptions for 807 yards and 7 TDs.  He improved in 2018 to 65-1,158-11, despite sharing the spotlight with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown.  In 2019, Lamb should be the unquestioned top target for new quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Before we delve into Lamb’s film, I wanted to share one intangible that came through as I watched.  Lamb is an alpha male.  He has an attitude and a swagger that I would love from my WR1 if I was a teammate or a fan.  I don’t know if it should factor into his evaluation but I felt it was worth mentioning.  This huge block in last year’s Red River Shootout is a example of what I mean.  It’s hard to see in the replay but he looks down at the flattened defender as if to add further insult to injury.

In the two games I watched, Texas and Alabama, Lamb continually made difficult plays along the sideline look routine.  He has superb body control with the instincts to toe-tap just as he’s going out of bounds.  The first play is a catch against Alabama where Lamb traps a back shoulder throw against his chest as he gets his feet in bounds (if I were to nitpick, I would say that Lamb does often body-catch the ball which can be, but hasn’t yet, been a concern).  The second play against Texas Tech looks similar but he makes the catch using his hands this time.

Lamb is a long strider who covers ground quickly when he wants to.  He’s also good at selling route fakes by manipulating his speed or using subtle body feints.  On this deep post he uses his speed and a head fake to gain enough space to make the play.  As usual, he’s able to get his feet in bounds, this time in the back of the end zone.

The two games I watched were lacking in the “oh my gosh did he just do that” department.  (That’s probably a testament to how natural he looks making difficult plays.)  I knew Lamb had a few incredible plays on his resume so I sought out some highlight reels so I could share a few.  These next two plays came against UCLA early in the season.  In the first play, Lamb one-hands the ball while streaking across the field.  In the second play, Lamb nearly makes the play of the decade by plucking the ball with one hand at full extension, sadly his feet come down on the line.

I currently have Lamb ranked as my WR2 behind Jerry Jeudy and ahead of Leviska Shenault.  He is a well-balanced wide receiver prospect who lines up all over the formation and is bound to make a huge impact this season.  Since Lamb has already been productive and shown a penchant for the unbelievable, I think he has a higher floor and a higher ceiling than most of the 2020 class.

 

Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State

When I first started my 2020 NFL Draft preparation back in May, I admittedly did not know much about Tylan Wallace.  I had heard of his name and must have seen him during the Bedlam matchup against Oklahoma but I didn’t remember much.  The receivers below in the Honorable Mentions section may have better name recognition right now than Wallace but I thought it was important to spotlight him here and give him his due.

As a freshman Wallace tallied just seven receptions, but he exploded as a sophomore.  His 2018 line finished at 86-1,491-12, which was enough yardage to finish second in the FBS.  Despite his dominance, Wallace didn’t earn much All-American recognition, perhaps confirming my thought that people are sleeping on him.

Wallace may not have the height of an elite outside receiver (6000) but he certainly has the catch radius.  He has strong hands that allow him to snag the ball away from his body at a full extension.  Combined with his strength, his leaping ability make him a frequent winner in contested situations.  In this first clip, you’ll see him take an inside stem, then extend as he comes across the middle.  He grabs the football in front of the defender before he can make a play on it.

In this clip, you’ll see Wallace make another first down catch at full extension.  The play is unlikely to end up on the evening highlight reels but it was an important play late in a close game and it readily shows how great his hands are.

Wallace also has excellent speed and acceleration.  I originally pegged him at 4.50 speed but he may be even quicker than that in confined space.  He quickly gets out of his breaks and is able to return to top speed immediately.  On this play against Kansas State, Wallace is running an out-and-up route but he slips while making his break.  He quickly gathers himself and bursts upfield, edging out the corner and the incoming safety.  Ultimately, Wallace wins the jump ball in double coverage for a big gain.

Wallace isn’t all hands and speed though, I also noted numerous times where he succeeded as a blocker.  I actually labeled him as a “feisty” blocker because it looks like he relishes the role.  Here’s just one example of the “feisty” blocks I saw from Wallace in my study.

It will be difficult for Wallace to improve on last year’s output but he should come close.  Hopefully he garners the national recognition he deserves because he’s a Top 10 receiver in the class.

Honorable Mentions

Kennedy Brooks, RB, Oklahoma: Brooks was the first of the two Oklahoma running backs I studied this Summer, which was before the recent news about a Title IX investigation. He’s been reinstated to the team but we don’t currently know the details. On the field, I noted that Brooks is an upright and downhill runner. He’s patient, follows his blocks and gets every yard that is available. I didn’t see too many examples in my film study, but I get the impression that he’s average or better in both pass protection and receiving. Brooks is just a redshirt sophomore so it’s unlikely he’ll do enough in a shared role to justify coming out early but he’s still somebody to monitor.

Trey Sermon, RB, Oklahoma: I was pleasantly surprised by Sermon’s film when I studied him earlier this offseason. Sermon runs with a slashing style and is ideal in a zone read offense. Because of his running style I assumed he was smaller than he is, but he’s listed at 6000/224.  In fact, he invites contact and has a great stiff arm. Sermon shows a high football IQ, specifically when it comes to pass protection and blocking for his rushing QB. Forced to decide between he and Brooks, I would take Sermon. Luckily, head coach Lincoln Riley doesn’t have to choose and will run both of them alongside QB Jalen Hurts. I expect another 1,000+ scrimmage yard season with double digit touchdowns, which might be enough to have Sermon declare in January.

Collin Johnson, WR, Texas: I watched Johnson’s film against TCU and was impressed by a number of his traits. He has a long and lean body type (6060/220) which he uses to reach balls others couldn’t. He hand-fights the corner well and ran a variety of routes in the game I saw. I also noted that he has excellent situational awareness: he knows where the marker is, when to fight for extra yardage and when to protect the ball. Johnson was on my 2019 NFL Draft radar before deciding to return for his senior season; part of his decision to return to the Longhorns was that he did not receive a high grade from the NFL. A 1,000 yard season in 2019 will improve his chances to be a Day Two prospect.

Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU: Reagor is an electrifying track star playing wide receiver. He has elite athletic ability which allows him to transcend his presumed role as a receiver with a 5110/195 frame. Reagor easily outleaps DBs and is able to high point the ball. He’s nearly uncoverable 1-on-1 and safeties don’t have the speed to turn and chase when playing Cover 2. I’m hesitant to put Reagor in my top five wide receivers until I’m able to study some game film instead of highlights — as of my writing there were no full clips available yet. Reagor’s upside is immense so keep an eye on him.

Grant Calcaterra, TE, Oklahoma: Calcaterra is the prototype of the new “big-slot” tight end.  He’s listed at 6040/221 and has 4.60 speed.  Per ESPN’s recruiting service, Calcaterra was the fastest TE in his recruiting class, running a 4.64 in 2017.  I haven’t watched him close enough to gauge his blocking ability but from what I’ve seen casually watching Sooners games the last two years he’s really just a receiver.  To check that assumption, I fast forwarded through his tape from Texas last season and saw just a single play where he lined up on the line of scrimmage.  At the end of that game, he made an incredible touchdown catch to seal the victory: contested, over the shoulder and one-handed.  Catches like that are why we need to pay attention to Calcaterra this season.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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