My first 2018 rookie mock draft was published back on Sept 6 and while some things have changed, I am actually quite pleased with how my mock draft held up throughout the season. I followed the same guidelines here as I did back in September. Namely, I used two base assumptions: 1) a standard one QB roster setup and 2) any junior good enough to be considered will declare early (the deadline is Jan 15 so by the time you read this we may already know that some guys are not going into the draft). Players are broken down into tiers and I have noted where they were mocked last time to show their movement from version to version. To view version 1.0, click here. Version 2.0 never saw the light of day as Bryce Love, Damien Harris and Myles Gaskin decided to return to school before publishing (for what it’s worth they were at 1.09, 2.06 and 2.09 respectively). I also compile mock draft information for the /r/DynastyFF sub Reddit which you can view here. Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @robertfcowper.
1.01, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (last: 1.01)
Barkley is in a tier all by himself. He’s a supreme athlete (possibly sub-4.40 speed) with good vision and is a good pass catcher. He’ll be the consensus first pick in just about every fantasy rookie draft and could be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick. Don’t overthink it.
1.02, Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (1.03)
1.03, Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (1.02)
(Note: this was written prior to Nick Chubb’s poor performance in the championship game. In hindsight, I am less confident about placing him at 1.02. One game does not a career make but still he played poorly against a defense full of NFL talent. I will re-visit this in the offseason) I now have Chubb and Guice flipped compared to where I had them to start the season. Heading into the season, Chubb’s 2015 knee injury felt like more of a concern than it does now since he has completed two full seasons since. Their stats this season were similar but Chubb had a slight edge as a rusher (1,320 yards and 15 TDs for Chubb, 1,251 and 11 TDs for Guice). Neither is a receiver like Barkley. Both backs have a career high of 18 receptions in a season – Guice did so in 2017 while Chubb did so as a freshman in 2014. The margin between the two for me is razor thin. I lean towards Chubb since we have a bigger sample size.
1.04, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama (1.04)
1.05, James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State (1.08)
1.06, Ronald Jones, RB, USC (2.07)
I still have Ridley as my WR1 even though 2017 was not a great season (just 59 receptions, 935 yards and 4 TDs prior to the championship game). To my eye, he is just the most skilled WR in the class, regardless of his production. He is very fast (4.35 40 yard dash in the Spring), jumps well enough to out play his 6’1″ height and is a good route runner. Washington is pretty quick himself but he just doesn’t seem as polished as Ridley. It’s hard to argue against Washington’s production but I think he’ll be drafted later than Ridley and won’t be as good of a pro in the long run. Washington is this high though because I think he will make an early impact in the league if he lands on the right team. Jones makes a huge jump from 2.07 to 1.06. I questioned his size to start the year, I thought he was too tall for his weight, but am no longer as concerned because he put on some weight. He’s such a quick and fast runner and was very productive this year (1,550 yards, 19 TDs). If he was a little more “squat” but just as fast and nimble he’d be challenging for the 1.02.
1.07, Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (undrafted)
1.08, Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU (1.07)
Rashaad Penny made a huge impression on me this season. I noticed Penny in August but thought he was more of a returner than a running back. He proved his worth as a rusher (his 2,248 yards led the FBS) but still managed to contribute as a return man (3 return TDs). Penny will probably be an early Day Three draft selection but I think his value as a return man will help him see the field earlier. Bryce Love originally found himself in this tier before deciding to return to school. Conversely to the ascending Penny, Sutton’s stock is falling for me. Sutton has the best size of the top three receivers (6’4, 215lbs) but I have some concerns. In my past research, I found that he mostly beat up on bad defenses; against the best defense he played this year (TCU), he was held to one catch for zero yards. It also bothers me that Sutton was not the leading receiver on his team this year (Trey Quinn had more receptions, yards and touchdowns). Sutton likely saw extra defensive attention but if he’s to be an NFL star, he must be able to dominate even against double coverage in games against lesser defenses. Interesting stat for Sutton, 8 of his 31 career receiving touchdowns came in three games against North Texas. I want to see him at the combine – if he comes in smaller than advertised he could fall out of my first round.
1.09, Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon (1.07)
1.10, Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis (2.02)
2.01, Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (2.06)
2.02, Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (1.05)
This tier features some of my favorite players in the draft in terms of value. I was high on Freeman to start the season before he came out on fire (10 TDs in the first four games). His pace slowed in the middle of the season but he finished strong too with 6 TDs in the games against Arizona and Oregon State. He decided to skip the bowl which was disappointing because I wanted to see him against Boise State’s defense. Despite the positive impression he made on me, I do have him a little lower now because he was jumped by Ronald Jones and Rashaad Penny at the position. Two players who did not skip the end of their seasons are Anthony Miller and Sony Michel. Miller is an absolute gamer who I want on my team. He’s not that big or that fast but he’s just productive. He runs routes well and has possibly the best hands in the class. He could have broken his leg in the AAC Championship game and he would have still finished the overtime. It may be a bit of a reach but I’m willing to take Miller at the end of the first to guarantee I get him. Michel is sometimes overshadowed by Chubb but he’s just as good in his own right. He has two 1,000+ yard seasons to his name and a career 6.1 yards per carry average. He is a better receiver than his 9 receptions in 2017 show. In 2015 and 2016 he had 48 combined. The hype on Michel is growing so you may not be able to get him at 2.01 but let’s not overreact to two nationally televised games. Michel will be a solid pro but I’m not willing to jump him over Chubb. Kirk dropped because I was probably too high on him originally but I still like him. He’s a great return man but so many of his receptions come at the line of scrimmage that I worry his NFL role may be limited.
2.03, Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (2.08)
2.04, Sam Darnold, QB, USC (2.01)
This is where my RSO mock will diverge slightly from a true dynasty mock. I strongly believe that going quarterback early in the second round of your rookie mock is the way to go. The salary paid will be less than $2mil per season which is a fantastic bargain for a starting quarterback, especially considering that most quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft will see game action sometime in the first season. The return on investment here is so high when you “hit” that it’s worth taking a chance on a “miss.” Readers will notice that 1) Rosen has jumped Darnold and 2) I am taking the QBs a little later now. Neither guy had a great season and they both come with some warts so I think this spot feels right. Even if Darnold gets drafted higher, barring some crazy trade that lands him on a good team, I would go with Rosen first as I feel he is more NFL-ready and will realize more value during his four year RSO rookie contract.
2.05, Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame (2.03)
2.06, Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa (undrafted)
2.07, Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State (3.07)
This was a very tough stretch for me to rank. I originally included Myles Gaskin and Damien Harris in this tier but they are now removed as they seek a higher grade next year. St. Brown dropped between mocks because he only had 33 receptions. Like Calvin Ridley, he was the leading receiver on a run-heavy offense. I didn’t count that against Ridley but I do against St. Brown because it’s tough to invest highly in a guy with just 92 career receptions. St. Brown would have dropped further if it weren’t for the decisions of Love and Harris ahead of him. Wadley and Gallup mostly stayed under the radar this season but move up in my rankings even though their per-touch averages decreased. They both significantly increased the number of touches they handled this season and played well in their biggest games. Gallup totaled 21 receptions and 282 yards in three games against Power 5 defenses (Oregon State, Colorado, Alabama); Wadley had 158 total yards versus Ohio State in what was ultimately the death blow for the Buckeyes’ playoff chances.
2.08, Dante Pettis, WR, Washington (2.04)
2.09, Bo Scarborough, RB, Alabama (1.06)
2.10, Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame (undrafted)
Bringing up the rear of the second round are three Power 5 players that I would be willing to take a shot on despite my concerns about their size. Pettis is a dynamo and can change a game with one touch. He had four punt return touchdowns this year and led the FBS in punt return average. He managed to increase his receptions this year but his per-touch averages decreased. He’s 6’1″ but about 195lbs so he’s a little too light. The fact that his former teammate John Ross was such a bust as a first rounder last year probably hurts Pettis even if it’s not fair. Scarborough and Adams were both productive in college but at 6’2″ they might be too tall to play running back effectively in the NFL. The comps in that size are not favorable. The best is Derrick Henry but other than that it’s a lot of no-name players over the last decade.
3.01, Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (undrafted)
If it makes RSO salary cap sense to take a quarterback near the top of the second, it stands to reason you should at the top of the third. Mayfield is currently my QB3 after an incredibly efficient season but I want to watch more tape. Heading into the season I had both Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson and Luke Falk ranked higher. Right now Rudolph would be the only one I consider putting here instead of Mayfield.
3.02, Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State (undrafted)
3.03, Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State (3.01)
3.04, Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina (3.05)
3.05, Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma (2.10)
Let the tight end run begin! I think everybody would agree that this year’s tight end class pales in comparison to last year but when is the right time to take one? I’m having trouble valuing them so I’ll bet others are too. My guess is that once one goes in your RSO draft, two or three will follow shortly after. Gesicki gets the nod as the top prospect because he’s bigger than both Andrews and Hurst and at least as athletic, if not more. Hurst is more of a traditional TE than the other two as he blocks better but he’s also fast enough and a good pass catcher. I had Hurst above Andrews in my early 2018 positional rankings and will stick with my gut. It takes time for tight ends to develop, Evan Engram notwithstanding, so I’ll knock Andrews down a peg because he so rarely lined up as a tight end in college. Lazard isn’t a TE but he’s a big-bodied receiver who I am a fan of. He was a key part of Iowa State’s miracle run (71-941-10). I wish I was able to find him a spot higher because it feels like I’m down on him compared to start the season but that’s not the case.
3.06, Auden Tate, WR, Florida State (undrafted)
3.07, Simmie Cobbs, WR, Indiana (undrafted)
3.08, Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State (3.04)
3.09, Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville, (undrafted)
3.10, Deon Cain, WR, Clemson (1.10)
Similarly to how I ended the second round, I will end the third round with a group of Power 5 players who I will take a flyer on. Tate has elite size, ball skills and body control but has just 65 career receptions. Cobbs also has elite size but he concerns me. He was suspended to start the 2016 season for “not living up to the responsibilities of the program,” and then subsequently suffered a season ending injury in his first game that year. In the summer of 2017 he was arrested at a concert. He didn’t face any discipline so it’s probably nothing but still I would worry about a pattern of negative behavior. Ballage is a bowling ball at 6’3″ and 230lbs. He is an effective receiver but averages just 4.4 yards per carry in his career. His size concerns me too. It’s hard to find a back with receiving stats like he had in 2016, so with a late third, what the heck. I don’t know enough about Jaylen Smith to properly evaluate him yet but our friends at the Dynasty Command Center are very high on him so I’ll trust their analysis. Smith had a crazy 22.9 yards per reception average in 2016 which was unsustainable (in 2017 it was still a solid 16.3). Deon Cain is another player who concerns me off the field. After a failed drug test, Clemson suspended him in 2015 for both of their College Football Playoff games and continued to hold him out through Spring practice. He lead the Tigers in yards (734) and TDs (6) this season but I was hoping for more now that he was out of Mike Williams’ shadow.
Honorable Mentions
4.01, Richie James, WR, Middle Tennessee State (undrafted)
4.02, Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State (undrafted)
4.03, Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State (undrafted)
4.04, Adam Breneman, TE, UMass (undrafted)
4.05, Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn (undrafted)
4.06, Deontay Burnett, WR, USC (undrafted)
4.07, Jalin Moore, RB, Appalachian State (undrafted)
4.08, Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State (undrafted)
4.09, Jaylen Samuels, TE, North Carolina State (undrafted)
4.10, Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville (undrafted)
Guys who I like but couldn’t find space for yet: Ryan Finley, Ito Smith, Jordan Chunn, Cedric Wilson, Antonio Callaway, Troy Fumagali
Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
- Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
