Rookie Mock Draft v2.0
It’s been awhile since the halcyon days before the NFL Draft when opinions and rookie mock drafts were full of optimistic caveats like “he would be a perfect fit with the [INSERT YOUR TEAM NAME].” Now that we know everybody’s landing place, it should be much easier to mock draft the rookies, right? At the top, I would say yes but after 1.07 it’s mostly a crap shoot. As I felt before, although they have shifted slightly, there are definite tier breaks and groupings of like players. Below I have ran through a three round rookie mock draft for a typical 10-team RSO league. If your league plays Superflex or 2 QB, you should adjust by moving the QBs up about 10-15 picks each in my opinion. Keep in mind this is a mock draft and not my straight rankings (which you can view and read about here; my God do I wish I had a do-over on some of those already!) so it’s a combination of my own personal preferences plus those of the dynasty “community” to create what I hope is a good approximation of what your league will look like. Along the way, I will offer some thoughts about why I grouped the players the way I did and will offer any details about how my personal rankings differ from the mock draft. Enjoy!
1.01 – Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars
1.02 – Corey Davis, WR, Titans
Many dynasty rankings are starting to converge on the opinion of Davis over Fournette. I have not changed my opinion yet when it comes to RSO leagues. I think both will be fantastic NFL players but you need to keep RSO’s format in mind. Fournette is likely to be fed the rock over and over early in his career until his body breaks down because the Jags lack offensive weapons; meanwhile the state of the Titans offense is less dire and Davis has the luxury of being eased into a starring role alongside QB Marcus Mariota and the RB duo of Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. If I had to guess who would be a better pro in Year 5, I would put my money on Davis. As an RSO owner, that’s not what you’re worrying about though because your rookie contract is either 3 or 4 years long. I think Fournette will realize more immediate value and that is why I still have him as my first overall rookie pick.
1.03 – Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers
1.04 – Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
1.05 – Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
McCaffrey has supplanted Mike Williams in this second tier in my opinion, especially in PPR. The order of the three RBs is a toss-up but I feel McCaffrey is the safest pick of the three so I put him first. I have heard of some dynasty players still considering Cook in the top three picks based on his spectacular tape but I am scared off by his questionable combine; Mixon obviously has character concerns. Admittedly, I decided against Mixon at 1.07 in one of my RSO leagues and instead traded the pick – I wasn’t desperate for a RB and had a second thought about taking on a guaranteed contract for a guy who already comes into the league with a domestic violence issue. In hindsight it might have been the wrong decision but I felt it was what was best for my team. I wouldn’t fault anybody for grabbing one of these RBs at 1.03, ultimately it comes down to personal preference.
1.06 – Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
1.07 – OJ Howard, TE, Bucs
Williams’ and Howard’s value changed for me after the NFL Draft because of their landing spots. Williams has prototypical size to be an NFL WR1 but he joins the Chargers and will have to contend with the chemistry between Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen and fight for targets with the ascendant Tyrell Williams. If Allen gets injured tomorrow, which we know is possible, the narrative can change quickly which is why I have Williams above Howard. Before the NFL Draft, I predicted that the Bucs would take the athletic David Njoku to pair with Mike Evans and create red zone nightmares for their opponents. I had the name of the TE wrong but the logic is still the same: joining the Bucs is far better for Howard’s fantasy potential than if the Browns took him at #12 as was rumored.
1.08 – John Ross, WR, Bengals
1.09 – David Njoku, TE, Browns
1.10 – Zay Jones, WR, Bills
2.01 – JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers
2.02 – Evan Engram, TE, Giants
This tier of pass catchers just edges out the next batch of running backs for me in terms of this RSO mock draft. The NFL is a passing league and a majority of RSO leagues feature PPR scoring so it stands to reason that you should lean towards these guys over the likes of Kareem Hunt, D’Onta Foreman and Samaje Perine who are featured below. Ross paces this group, literally and figuratively, because of his speed and big play ability – he can change a game more so than Jones or Smith-Schuster. Jones thrived in a short passing system in college and should see plenty of short routes with Tyrod Taylor under center in 2017; the fact that the Bills did not extend Sammy Watkins also helps increase Jones’ value. I’m higher on Jones than most and think he will prove to have a very high ceiling from the start. Smith-Schuster peaked in 2015 which is slightly concerning and may start start at WR4 on the depth chart behind some combination of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers (not to mention target stealing RB Le’Veon Bell). Njoku gets the nod over Engram for me because of his bigger size and the likelihood of seeing targets from Day One, albeit from a poorer QB. Engram is basically a WR and was the smallest of the coveted TEs in this class; I fear that he may loose snaps to Will Tye if he is not able to hold his own as a blocker.
2.03 – Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs
2.04 – D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texans
2.05 – Samaje Perine, RB, Redskins
As I mentioned above, none of these guys are prolific pass catchers (Hunt’s 2016 aside, when he had 9 more receptions than the previous three years combined) so they fall a notch in my mock draft. Hunt has the best chance of being that dual-threat RB which is why he tops this tier for me. Plus he was a four year starter at Toledo without any major injury concerns so that is also a plus. The Chiefs offense was in the top half in most offensive categories and with literally zero draft capital invested in Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West, the Chiefs won’t hesitate to make the switch if Ware falters in the least. Meanwhile, Foreman will have to start behind Lamar Miller who still has three years on his deal (but Houston has a potential out after 2017) so his path to starter’s touches may be longer. Perine is an interesting player because he was largely overshadowed by his Sooner backfield partner, Joe Mixon, and he now joins a crowded but talent poor Redskins’ backfield. At various points of the offseason and regular season, it looked like the Redskins feature back would be Matt Jones (who can’t stop fumbling the ball), then 7th round pick Keith Marshall (who got hurt) and then finally Rob Kelley (whose nickname is Fat Rob). If Perine proves to be the steady and reliable back he was in college he will win the job for the dysfunctional Redskins by mid-season.
2.06 – Curtis Samuel, RB/WR, Panthers
2.07 – Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
I grouped these two “gadget” players together because I have concerns about the number of touches they will get early in their career. Samuel proved to be a productive rusher and receiver in college but I’m not convinced he’s good enough at either to stick in the NFL. The sample size on Kamara as a true running back is too small to put any stock into the possibility of him beating out Adrian Peterson or Mark Ingram (if he doesn’t get traded). Kamara only had 210 career carries for the Volunteers which is fewer than most of the aforementioned RBs averaged per season. He is a capable receiver (74 career catches and a 9.2 average) so he will see action on passing downs but his upside is limited by the 6-8 touches I expect each game.
2.08 – Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs
2.09 – Taywan Taylor, WR, Titans
Godwin and Taylor find themselves here at the back of the second round which is a great value in my personal opinion. I actually have Godwin ranked much higher, for the same reasons as OJ Howard, and am ecstatic when I find him later in drafts. Taylor is not well known which can work to your advantage. He put up crazy production the last two years on a mediocre Western Kentucky team (154-3,200-34) and tested reasonably well at the combine (4.50 40 yard dash, best 3-cone drill, sixth best broad jump). As the second WR taken by the Titans he will fly under the radar but grab him now so you hold him when I predict he breaks out in Year Two.
2.10 – Pat Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
3.01 – Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans
I differ from most RSO owners with my opinions on QBs. I feel you should target the best rookies in the middle of the second round so you can take your pick rather than being at the end of the inevitable run on them. My top pick in this class is Mahomes – he has a lot of mechanics work to do but should be the Chiefs starter by 2018. I am not a fan of Watson but he will have the opportunity to start sooner than most other rookies so he’s worth the gamble. Just like in the NFL, if you can find a startable QB and lock him up for years on a cheap deal it is well worth the risk.
3.02 – Marlon Mack, RB, Colts
3.03 – Carlos Henderson, WR, Broncos
3.04 – Jeremy McNichols, RB, Bucs
3.05 – Wayne Gallman, RB, Giants
The value in this next tier relies heavily on the health and production of the veterans ahead of the rookies on the depth chart. Because their talent is a step below the higher ranked rookies, they may not be able to overcome the veterans in training camp and instead will need a “lucky break” to get their chance. Mack will begin behind the ageless Frank Gore but he’s going to break down, and for good, sooner or later. Henderson joins a crowded group of WRs on the Broncos and will need an injury to Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders to crack the starting lineup; he’ll also need to contend with the young projects of Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer. McNichols might have the best shot to ingratiate himself early as Doug Martin is suspended to start the season but reports are that Martin is doing great in OTAs so that puts a dent in McNichols’ prospects after the suspension. I am a Wayne Gallman apologist and think he has a shot to beat out Paul Perkins. Perkins did enough in his 112 carries to at least start the season as the RB1 though. Most people would have Gallman lower but my love for him is too hard to ignore!
3.06 – Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers
3.07 – Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
3.08 – Jake Butt, TE, Broncos
This tier features three players whose pure talent may not warrant the pick but their situation does – in contrast to the tier above. The Packers no longer have Eddie Lacy or James Starks so that only leaves converted receiver Ty Montgomery as the incumbent. Both Williams and Aaron Jones will have ample opportunity to take over the lead role. The same goes for Kupp who is looking at also-rans Robert Woods and Tavon Austin ahead of him on the depth chart; if Kupp can get on the field early and create a connection with QB Jared Goff he could prove to be a huge value. TE Jake Butt’s value took a huge hit after he tore his ACL at the end of the season. Chances are he will be okay to play early in the season and the Broncos will need him as Virgil Green did not show us much last year.
3.09 – Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears
3.10 – Deshone Kizer, QB Browns
The same logic applies here as it does for Mahomes and Watson – grab potential starting QBs in your rookie draft to lock them into cheap long term contracts. Both Trubisky and Kizer join bad teams that could throw them into the fire early. I doubt they have much value in Year One, like Goff last year, but they are worth the stash given the small cap hit if you’re forced to cut them.
