Evaluating Rushers into 2022
Evaluating running backs is a notoriously difficult task using many basic statistics as running back production relies extensively on many factors outside of the back’s control. The often cited “yards per carry” is one of the single worst NFL statistics in evaluating a player because of these issues. The following takes a deeper dive evaluating rushing performance by more useful criteria.
The Data
I aggregate 2018-2021 data of running backs with at least 100 carries during that timeframe creating a four-year sample of 112 running backs. This gives a big enough sample to matter while keeping the data relevant to the evaluation of current NFL players. This article focuses on three key rushing metrics from Pro Football Reference on a per attempt basis: Yards Before Contact (YBC), Yards After Contact (YAC), and Broken Tackles (BRK) to evaluate a group of running backs heading into 2022.
These metrics all depend on outside factors independent of running back skill to some degree. As examples: offensive line, scheme, situation, and running back role all potentially influence yards before contact; downfield blocking may affect yards after contact; broken tackle rate can be influenced by how quickly second and later defenders get to the ball carrier. With that being said, broken tackle rate is widely considered among the most running back independent measures. The data also suggests it influences yards after contact. An increase in broken tackle rate correlates with an increase in yards after contact as seen in the plot below. Yards before contact, on the other hand, displays minimal to no relationship to yards after contact or broken tackle rate (R2 = 0.00 for both) in the data set.
As always, nothing is absolutely certain. Sometimes we don’t have the available data to properly segregate individual player influences. Ben Linsey makes an anecdotal case for running back influence on yards before contact: “The evidence points toward running backs with plus speed and vision being able to consistently avoid contact despite middling to below-average blocking in front of them.” So, while yards before contact is likely the most team-dependent metric of the three focused in on this article, running back skill also influences it.
The following highlights a number of interesting players heading into the season with ranks of (broken tackles, yards after contact, and yards before contact) from the data sample.
Quality 2nd Year Running Backs to Watch
The hype for Javonte Williams (1 BRK, 33 YAC, 55 YBC) remains strong going into his second season largely due to his ability to break tackles which translated from college. Williams essentially broke the broken tackle metric in this sample as the top-ranked back. He more than doubled the average broken tackle rate and was about 18% higher than the next running back in this metric. The Denver offense should increase scoring opportunities with Russell Wilson at the helm. The main question is how much Williams’ role increases this year. Melvin Gordon (27, 35, 47) is absolutely a quality back but wasn’t a priority free agent for the Broncos and only resigned for a marginal deal after failing to secure a bigger contract elsewhere.
Many people call Najee Harris (13, 39, 98) a plodder due to his sub-4 yards per carry figure from his first year. This is far from the truth. Pittsburgh’s abysmal offensive line led to one of the worst yards before contact numbers in the dataset which distorted his per carry numbers. He’s going to get a ton of touches in this offense (which we care about for fantasy). The offensive line and offense still projects poorly going into the season though.
Elijah Mitchell (44, 15, 57) ranks very similarly to Saquon Barkley (43, 12, 86) and Jonathan Taylor (54, 11, 10) in broken tackles and yards after contact. San Francisco provides an excellent environment to rack up yards before contact also if Mitchell is able to maintain a hold on most of the rushes. The lack of passing game utilization for 49er backs limits fantasy upside.
Many project Breece Hall to immediately assume a true workhorse-type role for the Jets after the New York traded up in the 2nd round to get him. Michael Carter (20, 25, 79) meanwhile performed admirably in a challenging situation last season. He might just be too good to completely take out of a meaningful role in New York.
Rhamondre Stevenson (3, 8, 91) looked borderline unstoppable at times last year plowing through prospective tacklers for New England. Does a path exist for him to take over the main back duties or contribute significantly in the passing game? Incumbent starter Damien Harris (40, 46, 16) ranked as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd highest graded running backs each of the last two seasons. The Patriots possess an impressive duo at running back no matter how the split plays out.
Green Bay Running Backs
Aaron Jones (25, 22, 15) and AJ Dillon (11, 23, 64) also form one of the butter running back duos for any NFL team. They complement each other in ways which allow the Packers to utilize both in optimal situations but are both diverse enough to use alone without giving away the play call. They both make for quality fantasy targets at cost on a Green Bay team without much in the way of proven receiving options.
Josh Jacobs
If one made a list of the most underrated NFL running backs, Josh Jacobs (18, 34, 87) would have to be near the top. He sits among the most technically sound rushers in the league. Jacobs ranks as one of the most evasive workhorse backs in the league over the last few seasons. Only Nick Chubb (6, 1, 39), who I consider the top rusher in the league, compares with Jacobs in terms of making tacklers miss among lead backs as seen in the table below.
Most Forced Missed Tackles on Runs | Since 2019 per Pro Football Focus
Unfortunately for Jacobs, he’s another back stuck behind an awful offensive line the last couple of seasons as evidenced by his 87th ranked yards before carry and probably isn’t getting much better this season. Some situational concerns also exist with a new coaching staff in Las Vegas this year and failure to utilize the 5th year rookie contract option but Jacobs is in a class of his own for Raiders’ running backs.
Concerns for Cam Akers
It’s been a rough start for Cam Akers (106, 56, 65) who I liked coming out of college. A devastating Achilles injury short-circuited his second year before it began (he remarkably made his return in 2021, albeit ineffectually) after flashing at the end of his rookie season. Unfortunately Akers’ body of work leaves a lot to be desired. He hasn’t shown to be particularly good at any rushing aspect so far. Akers ranks among the worst tackle breakers in the data set next to players past their prime and backups.
Bottom-10 in Broken Tackle Rate
We also don’t know how effective he will be as the history of recovery from Achilles injuries is not encouraging, particularly for running backs. The Rams were dead last in running back target rate for Stafford’s first season and the offensive line struggles in run blocking. Akers’ fantasy case really rests on a presumed large rushing workload with touchdown upside for an efficient passing offense.
Cordarrelle Patterson probably won’t Repeat 2021
2021 produced a nice fantasy story for Cordarrelle Patterson (99, 76, 67), the long-time multi-purpose player in his age 30 year. He beat his previous high in receiving yards and destroyed his previous rushing totals. Atlanta cast Patterson as the main rusher primarily due to a lack of viable running back options. The main problem is Patterson just wasn’t very good rushing the ball ranking below average in most categories. This lack of success shouldn’t be a surprise as Patterson specialized as a returner with occasional wide receiver gadget plays on offense during his career. While Patterson should maintain some role on offense with plays in the passing game, it’s difficult imagining the Falcons continuing using him as a significant portion of the run game unless his fellow Atlanta running backs fail miserably again.
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
