FA Expectancy: Kyle Shanahan
Throughout the offseason, I will be preparing a collection of articles that will focus on free agents and trade candidates. The articles will discuss the player in question, and what the move does to their value, as well as what their landing spot means for their new and old teams.
Kyle Shanahan – HC, San Francisco 49ers
I want to take a different approach to my FA Expectancy than I normally do and look at new 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan. More specifically, I want to see what type of coach he is and what his presence brings to the 49ers from an offensive standpoint. I also want to examine what his departure means for several high profile Falcons’ players.
A Team Saviour?
Shanahan began his coordinating career in Houston with the Texans from 2008 till 2010. His two seasons with the Texans he executed a balanced offense with 21 and 29 passing TDs to 16 and 13 rushing TDs respectively. In 2010 Shanahan was hired as the offensive coordinator underneath his recently unretired father, Mike, in Washington. For the first two seasons, they were a terrible offense. Led by Donovan McNabb (2010) and Rex Grossman (2011) they averaged only 18.5 points per game and failed to score 10 rushing TDs in either season. Then in 2012 Washington infamously traded for Robert Griffin III and the offense exploded around him and fellow rookie Alfred Morris. The Shanahan’s did an excellent job of keeping the offense simple and allowed both Griffin and Morris to control the game one the ground. The team finished with 22 rushing TDs (2nd overall) and averaged over 27 points per game, good for 4th overall.
Unfortunately, the offense took a step back in 2013 finishing average to below average in offensive statistics. This was likely due to the injury that Griffin suffered in the playoffs the season before as he became unable to execute the scramble drill that allowed the offense to make big, downfield plays. Both Kyle and his father were fired at the end of the season. Kyle became the offensive coordinator in Cleveland for the 2014 season and while awful in the passing game the team did have success running the ball, ranking 4th with 17 rushing TDs.
In 2015 Shanahan moved to join the newly hired Head Coach Dan Quinn in Atlanta. Quinn was the defensive coordinator of the Legion of Boom Seahawks that went to two Super Bowls and combining him with Shanahan was praised throughout the league. The team went through growing pains in their first season after starting off undefeated through the first month but failed to make the playoffs. Much like their record stated the offense was average with rankings of 21st in scoring, 23rd in passing and 13th in rushing. Then the offense exploded last season finishing top 3 in all three categories on their way to the team’s second Super Bowl appearance. The day after the Super Bowl Shanahan used his success to land the head coaching job in San Francisco, a team that was 27th in scoring in last season.
Having laid out his 8-year career as an offensive coordinator the below graphs show how Shanahan led offenses have done since 2008. For context, I have also listed the QB-WR-RB combo that led each team.
| Kyle Shanahan Offensive Standings | ||||||||||
| YEAR | Team | SCORING | S. RANK | S. AVG | PASSING | P. RANK | P. AVG | RUSHING | R. RANK | R. AVG |
| 2016 | ATL | 33.8 | 1 | 22.8 | 38 | 2T | 24.6 | 20 | 3T | 13.8 |
| 2015 | ATL | 21.2 | 21T | 22.8 | 21 | 23T | 26.3 | 13 | 13T | 11.4 |
| 2014 | CLE | 18.7 | 27 | 22.6 | 12 | 32 | 25.2 | 17 | 4 | 11.9 |
| 2013 | WAS | 20.9 | 23 | 23.4 | 20 | 24 | 25.1 | 14 | 13T | 12.8 |
| 2012 | WAS | 27.3 | 4 | 22.8 | 24 | 13T | 23.7 | 22 | 2 | 12.5 |
| 2011 | WAS | 18 | 26 | 22.2 | 19 | 23 | 23.3 | 8 | 26 | 12.5 |
| 2010 | WAS | 18.9 | 25 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 23.5 | 9 | 24T | 12.5 |
| 2009 | HOU | 24.3 | 10 | 21.5 | 29 | 5T | 22.2 | 13 | 18 | 13.4 |
| 2008 | HOU | 22.9 | 17 | 22 | 21 | 13T | 20.2 | 16 | 11T | 14.9 |
| AVG | 22.9 | 17.1 | 22.5 | 22.8 | 17.4 | 23.8 | 14.7 | 12.7 | 12.9 | |
| Featured Starters | |||
| YEAR | QB | REC | RB |
| 2017 | Brian Hoyer | Pierre Garcon | Carlos Hyde |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | Julio Jones | Devonta Freeman |
| 2015 | Matt Ryan | Julio Jones | Devonta Freeman |
| 2014 | Brian Hoyer | Andrew Hawkins | Terrance West |
| 2013 | Robert Griffin III | Pierre Garcon | Alfred Morris |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | Josh Morgan | Alfred Morris |
| 2011 | Rex Grossman | Jabar Gaffney | Roy Helu |
| 2010 | Donovan McNabb | Santana Moss | Ryan Torain |
| 2009 | Matt Schaub | Andre Johnson | Steve Slaton |
| 2008 | Matt Schaub | Andre Johnson | Steve Slaton |
Suffice to say that other than last year’s juggernaut Falcons and a magical season from a pair of rookies in 2013 his offenses have been pretty pedestrian. Matt Kelley of RotoUnderworld discussed how backward it is to assume that coaches who have had generational talents at a position are somehow going to make mid-tier to mediocre talent into fantasy stars. He even specifically talks about this infatuation with Kyle Shanahan and his Coach Klein-like advantage of motivating and play calling. If you want to listen to his full discuss you can find it here. Be warned that it does include some NSFW language.
What to Expect in San Francisco?
Football wise the 49ers were in complete shambles last season which is reflective in their two wins and 31st overall finish. Shanahan and new first-time General Manager John Lynch brought in veterans Brian Hoyer and Pierre Garcon, both of which Shanahan has worked with in the past, to have some stability in the passing game. I have already looked into the passing game in my Pierre Garcon article and discussed how Hoyer and Garcon can have appeal as low-cost options in 2017. Looking deeper into past seasons my 2017 prediction would be that the offense will fall somewhere between Shanahan’s 2013 Washington team and his 2014 Cleveland Browns. This would suggest that passing TDs would be hard to come by and therefore Garcon will need to rely heavily on collecting targets to hold WR3 value.
As we can see from above other than Matt Ryan the options at QB have been below average at best. This, along with the reputation his father had to turn any athlete with two legs into a 1,000-yard rusher, may be an indication as to why most Shanahan led offenses lean more heavily on the run. For those that are concerned that negative game script will force Shanahan to have to pass more frequently it has shown that even with mediocre teams Shanahan has always stuck with his running game. There is definitely fantasy appeal to having a Shanahan led backfield.
The question now becomes, “Who will be the primary back once the season opens”? They inherited Carlos Hyde who has been a workhorse back when healthy and also drafted Joe Williams in the 4th round. Apparently, Shanahan was adamant that the team take Williams for him to use in his offense. This has many thinking that Williams is the guy to own in San Francisco which has moved his rankings to the mid-second round in rookie drafts believing that his time will come sooner rather than later. But there has been news out of San Francisco that undrafted RB Matt Breida is looking better than Williams in practice and again Matt Kelley (in a separate discussion) mentioned back in May about how he was skeptical about Williams being ahead of Brieda on the depth chart come week 1. Have a listen here if you want the 3-minute conversation (again NSFW). Because of this for 2017 you want to stay the course with Carlos Hyde and try and acquire him from any panicky owners that don’t think he will return his usually RB2 value.
Will Atlanta suffer a Super hangover without Shanahan?
Other than Shanahan leaving the offense stays relatively the same. They still have Julio Jones who is top 3 of everybody’s receiver rankings. They still have Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman who make up one of the best 1-2 backfield combos in the league. And they still have Matt Ryan who is an ascending QB talent in the prime of his career. Regression probably is expected but that’s what happens when you have a record setting offense. Hopefully, not as bad as Cam Newton and Carolina last year but regression is expected nonetheless. Let’s be clear though that it won’t be because of Shanahan leaving. Remember that the team was middle of the road with Shanahan in his first season, statistically so we should expect the team to be somewhere between their mediocre 2015 season and their outstanding 2016 season.
If you are looking to acquire value from this team out of the previously mentioned players I would be trying to acquire Tevin Coleman. Devonta Freeman’s contract ends after this season and depending on what he is asking for it might be more economical if the Falcons let him go and draft another RB to pair with Coleman. This could open up the whole backfield in a strong offense to Coleman making his 2018 stock skyrocket. Worst case scenario Freeman signs a new contract and Coleman is in the same place he is now, a mid RB2 value in PPR leagues.
Make sure to continue to read more Free Agency Expectancy articles throughout the offseason to be prepared for your summer Auctions. Have a player that you want me to evaluate? Send me a message on Twitter @naandrews19.
