IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

Updated: September 24th 2022

Welcome to week 3! Another fun week of fantasy football, but more fun if you are living that IDP fantasy life! One more week of data, a week to help establish real/true trends, and more film to interpret for our next set of decisions. As always, a reminder of what this article is here for,is to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of their IDP position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a start-able asset for each given week (or maybe more!). The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements. Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

As a quick refresher too, here were week two’s recommendations and how the “advice” went. Happy with my all sits, the Titans defense disappointed for me this week. Expected greater work from the key players in that front 7.
DL:
Start: Jeffery Simmons (1 PD)


Sit: Khalil Mack (.5 sack, 1 solo, 1 assist)


LB:

Start: David Long Jr. (1 solo, 1 assist)

Sit (Sell): Kamu Grugier-Hill (3 solo, 2 assist)

 

DB:
Start: Kyler Gordon (3 solos, 3 assist, 1 PD)

Sit: Jevon Holland (2 solos, 8 return yards)

 

START: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs, DL33

The new look Kansas City Chiefs are looking strong at 2-0 and a large part of this is thanks to the play of their defense as well. And at the core of the front 7 is Chris Jones, delivering strong performances for his team and for IDP fantasy. As such, he is a strong value start at DL33 from Fantasy Pros IDP week 3 rankings. He is checking those preliminary boxes for us in utilization (70%+ snap count through 2 weeks) and showing a top-end PFF pass-rush grade of 90+ as well.

What does this mean for week 3’s matchup? The Chiefs travel to Indianapolis and they struggled against a decent unit last week in the Jaguars and the Colts defense has looked weak so far this year and the Chiefs offense could turn this into a negative game script very quickly. Which means this front 7 can really pin its ears back and get after a very immobile Matt Ryan. Pair this with a Colts offensive line that has been bottom half of the league so far this year with Jones’ 17% pressure rate, we have a very strong path for Jones to continue adding pressure and likely converting a sack or two!

Jones is an easy DL2 this week and a must start in DT required leagues.

SIT: Marcus Davenport, New Orleans Saints, DL23

Marcus Davenport came on strong at the end of 2021 and was really starting to get people to believe in his 1st round draft capital and what he could be for the Saints as a premier edge rusher as Cameron Jordan is reaching the end of his career. However, his start to this season has been rather pedestrian, at best. Davenport has had slightly above average snap counts at around 60% of his snaps but he has delivered little excitement in the pass-rush department with a 6% pressure rate! He would need to be converting almost every pressure at that rate to be delivering consistent IDP value.

With a rough start, week 3 brings in the Carolina Panthers and some would say this would be the salve to what ails Davenport. However, I am predicting a shift in the Panthers focus and getting CMC more involved as he has shown the ability to be involved and gain further confidence in his ability to stay on the field. Along with the fact that many believe Matt Rhule is playing for his job at this point, and CMC sounds like a better bet than Baker Mayfield, in one man’s humble opinion. And if this is the case, Davenport has struggled to deliver in the run game as well this year, leading to just an overall disappointing IDP week.

START: Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers, LB23

Fred Warner has been an IDP stalwart for the last 4 seasons since coming into the league. Now, after two slow weeks to start his 2022 campaign, consensus ranks has him at LB23 this week! The 49ers have run a crazy low number of plays on defense at 53.5 per game over the last two weeks. Those are numbers that just aren’t realistic to last over the entirety of the season. On a 17 game pace, that would leave him almost 100 snaps lower than some of his 16 game seasons in terms of total snaps played. He has had some below average tackle efficiency which can be expected to happen at times, so some positive regression there, with increased overall snaps means stronger numbers are very likely in the future for Warner.

The Broncos have average around 65 snaps per game as an offense as well, so this should be a return to the norm for the 49ers defense and Warner is an asset who has proven year in and year out that he can deliver, just look at this IDP resume:

  • 79+ solo tackles every year
  • 115+ total tackles every year
  • 22+ TFLs over the last 4 years
  • 12 combined FF/FR over the last 4 years

All this to say, if anyone is out on Warner, buy the dip and ride the wave of success that should follow shortly after.

SIT: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins, LB27

Jerome Baker is getting full 100% snap count which is not always easy to find with any LB, so if he is getting that kind of usage, why would we want to be looking at sitting him them? Alignment. Week 1 he spent about 17% of his snaps on the defensive line rushing the passer and in week 2, that jumped way up to 53%. This utilization is a scary trend for Baker and if it continues or stays anywhere near that 50%. This has already shown up in his first two weeks performance with 7 total tackles between both and also only delivered 1 total pressure with all these pass rush attempts. This is a very-low 6% pressure rate and he hasn’t converted anything into further IDP production either.

Now for week 3, we see the Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills and this is not the team a pass rushing LB is going to right their ship. Baker might correct course here soon, but this week is not the one to do. With only 3 sacks allowed in the first two games, that is a big ask for Baker to be the one to come up with it with previous lack of success.

START: Terrell Edmunds, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB34

Terrell Edmunds is easily overshadowed by the other safety in Pittsburgh in Minkah Fitzpatrick. Minkah is out there breaking all logic in how deep safeties have historically produced IDP with crazy tackle numbers giving safe weekly floors with high-level play-making that delivers week winning performances. While all this is happening, Edmunds is quietly delivering success while getting the ideal utilization for a safety. He has gotten 100% of the defensive snaps while also playing 58% of his snaps inside the sweet spot!!!

With a tough divisional matchup in the Cleveland Browns which have been low-scoring games, and you have seen Cleveland continue to rely on their running game. With that consideration, these sweet spot snaps will become even more valuable. Edmunds is a strong DB2 this week and might be a candidate to watch for season-long  value as well.

SIT: Jonathan Owners, Houston Texans, DB26

Jonathan Owners has been a pleasant surprise to start this season. However, I am guessing most people have not played him much this season unless in a super deep league. He has put up an astounding 25 tackles through the first two games as well as a pass defensed. This is super impressive and why wouldn’t we want this in our lineup?!? Because he has played a ludicrous 81 snaps per game so far this year! OK, well, the Texans defense stinks, right? So they will keep getting more snaps, right? Enter the Chicago Bears. They have thrown 28 passes through 2 games this year and run the 2nd least amount of plays in 97 total plays.

Something has to give in this situation, and Jonathan Owens has played solidly with PFF grades around 63 for the season, but if I had to pick a side, I would lean away from the lack of previous production from Owens and the inflated opportunities about to come crashing back down this week against the Bears.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 2

Updated: September 16th 2022

It is week 2 of the NFL season! We now have a full game of “real” NFL football and data points to analyze and help guide our decision-making, but before we jump into this, a friendly reminder of what I am trying to do here. This article aims to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of their IDP position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a startable asset for each given week (or maybe more!). The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements. Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

As a quick refresher too, here were last week’s recommendations:
DL: Start Danielle Hunter. Sit Sam Hubbard
LB: Start Isaiah Simmons. Sit Anthony Walker Jr.
DB: Start Kyler Gordon. Sit (Fade) Jeremey Chinn

START: Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans, DL27

Jeffery Simmons had a standout first week, and generally speaking, you don’t want to chase box scores. However, Simmons supports his outcomes with some strong analytics. There are things that we have talked about needing from your defensive linemen to support the most likely successful outcomes for IDP assets. He meets the most basic foundation with a strong snap count at 87% (52 snaps in week 1) and along with that, strong pass-rush metrics that indicate continued success. His 2 sacks, 6 tackles, and a forced fumble were a strong week 1, but his strong performance should just be the beginning. He posted a pass rush grade of 90+ (via PFF) and an elite 21.4% pass rush win rate!

These indicators show us that he should continue to be a successful IDP contributor. Simmons as a DL27 this week is a crime and should be a candidate for trade target to pursue long-term if you don’t already have him on your roster. Tennessee’s offense looks like a shell of last year’s team, they will lean into this defense and Simmons looks to be the leader of it. Buy in now!

SIT: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL18

The ‘Mack Attack’ is back! Khalil Mack looked like prime Mack and me having him in the ‘Sit’ category probably has you wondering, what the heck am I talking about? Mack posted strong snap counts, a solid pass-rush win rate at 14.2%, and a very good PFF pash-rush grade of 79. So let’s cut to the point. These numbers came from the matchup with a bottom-third-rated offensive line in the Las Vegas Raiders. What I believe I saw was over-inflated production due to that favorable matchup. Mack is a solid contributor and in a much stronger defense than he has played with for the last few years in Chicago, and as such his production week-to-week will fluctuate more significantly. Chasing his high-weeks in managed lineups will be tricky, but a game against Kansas City and an offense with Mahomes that will find a way to slow down this pass rush with a Chiefs offensive line that now boosts itself as one of its strengths.

START: David Long, Tennessee Titans, LB16

David Long is shaping up to be a top 12-15 LB for the remainder of the season. Long showed flashes last season and now he is getting the chance to be the lead guy in Tennessee and it is paying off. He saw the field for 100% of the snaps (60 total in week 1) and he was able to be efficient with the snaps he was given. 8 tackles on 60 snaps equates to a tackle efficiency of 13.3%. This is slightly above average for LBs as it tends to float around 12% which is positive for his season-long productivity. He also had 3 missed tackles in week 1, both concerning as that is a bit high, but also exciting because there are more opportunities to rack up the production. This makes Long a great weekly starter in its own rights, but now combine that with the upside he showed in pass-rush, 5 pressures.

For this week he should see the tackle floor increase, as well as Josh Allen, has consistently funneled targets into the middle of the field in week 1 and we can see those right into the heart of David Long and his efforts making him a top 10 play this week.

SIT (SELL): Kamu Grugier-Hill, Houston Texans, LB4

Kamu Grugier-Hill absolutely balled out for IDP in week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts with an absurd 18 tackles (14 solo! and 4 assisted) along with a pass defensed. He is played as a true 3-down LB with 100% snaps of a ridiculous 92 SNAPS! This was also an, in my opinion, an unsustainable 19.5% tackle efficiency. He is still a very viable LB to play week in and week out, however, the LB4 ranking of Grugier-Hill for week 2 feels like a strong over-correction. 92 snaps is close to a 50% more than what you would expect in an average NFL game for defensive snaps, so paired with reduced snap and unsustainable tackle efficiency, now is the time to sell this belief that he is a top 5 IDP LB, especially in dynasty.

He was also in a very positive matchup against the Colts who focused heavily on the utilization of Jonathan Taylor which was very friendly to the Texans Cover 2 defense and Matt Ryan’s passing attack that focused on shorter to intermediate targets. With a matchup in week 2 against the Broncos, I believe we will see Russell Wilson actually begin to attack downfield versus the dump-off game we saw on Monday.

And the cherry on-top, Kamu is racking up IDP stats, however, his PFF grade leaves a ton to be desired (37.4 overall, ouch!) which for a Texans team that doesn’t seem to be likely competing for a playoff spot would have every reason to pull an underperformer and give a 3rd round rookie LB a chance to prove themself at some point this season too (Christian Harris anyone?). Along with the face that Grugier-Hill is in the final year of his contract too.

All this to say, sell high!

START: Jaquan Brisker, Chicago Bears, DB29

If you haven’t guess the theme here for people we want to have, let’s start with the full-time player for Brisker at 100% of the 68 snaps for the Chicago Bears. But for the secondary, we need those snaps and we need the ideal alignment which is in that “sweet spot” (21 box, 4 slot, 5 DL) for a total of 30 snaps there, for a very strong 44% there.

Now, this didn’t equate to top-tier IDP success with 4 solo tackles, 1 TFL, FR, but he showed to be around the ball consistently. Now looking forward to week 2, the Green Bay Packers will refocus on their run game with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to control the game, coach La Fleur has stated as much. But with more opportunities in the run game, will come more opportunities for people playing at or near the line of scrimmage to make more plays… enter, Brisker! Game script leans heavily towards Brisker getting these chances, making him a clear DB2 for this week.

SIT: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB22

Jevon Holland had a standout rookie year and respectable week 1 for the Dolphins against the Patriots. He was only able to deliver 3 tackles but had the rest of his day propped up by an interception which is a bet I am not willing to place week in and week out. Holland saw the full complement of snaps, 100% of the 57 snaps which is a great baseline to IDP relevance. However, Holland took 45 of those 57 at deep safety which are some of the least valuable IDP aligned snap we can get.

Week 2 Miami has the Ravens coming to town and their pass-to-rush ratio is close to 50% and that was with a depleted and inefficient backfield. If they can find any support with more talent in their backfield from J.K. Dobbins or the recently acquired Kenyan Drake gets more comfortable with the team, you should see even more plays at or around the line of scrimmage in this game, devaluing those deep snaps for IDP. Holland is a talented football player and play-maker, but for IDP, he is someone we might want to find a better DB2 option.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Sit/Start: Week 1

Updated: September 16th 2022

Welcome to my IDP Sit/Start Article for the 2022 NFL season. This article aims to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of the position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a startable asset for each given week. The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements! Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

Let’s get to it now that you know what I am trying to do!

START: Danielle Hunter, Minnesota Vikings, DL19

Danielle Hunter has that injury-prone label hanging over his head after back-to-back years of lost seasons (pectoral muscle in 2021, neck in 2020). This is scaring people off from what I strongly believe Danielle Hunter to be, and that is at tier 1 DL for IDP fantasy football. He meets the prerequisites of having pass rush win rates and pressures per game at elite levels when on the field. Secondly, throughout his career he has consistently seen around 80% of the defensive snaps each game and season and nothing has shown us that they are planning to bring that number down. Combine those points with the fact that Hunter is finally paired with another strong pass-rushing partner in offseason signing, Za’Darius Smith, Hunter has a path for success that should make him an every-week starter with top 8 DL upside for the entire season.

SIT: Sam Hubbard, Cincinnati Bengals, DL16

Sam Hubbard had a career year last season, in terms of sacks with 9 (tied career best), tackles at 62 (tied 2nd best), TFLs at 12 (career high), and QB hits with 17 (career high). These are strong numbers for where Hubbard was drafted last year and his perceived value. However, he did this on his highest snap total ever as well. His overall efficiency saw a drop but he delivered on volume. I am sure this is confusing at first because you are asking yourself, “Doesn’t Jake always say to chase volume for IDP?” And you would be right in every case. Volume is the first key to success for an IDP fantasy asset. The problem is, that volume came in what seemed more of a necessity than a desire. Hubbard and Hendrickson saw the vast majority of snaps as Joseph Ossai went down early last season. Ossai was an early round 3 pick (69th overall) and in the preseason, the Bengals were clearly showing signs of him being a key contributor. Once he went down, the Bengals didn’t have the talent or depth to replace that and just rode Hubbard and Hendrickson. With a full season to recover and prepare, Ossai will see an increased role which means a reduced snap count for Hubbard and Hendrickson. This means if you are looking for that high-end DL2 value, you are hoping he improves efficiency which is the less likely outcome.

START: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals, LB26

Isaiah Simmons has had an interesting path to his current situation as it exists today. He was a top 10 draft pick (8th overall, 2020) but found himself on the wrong end of the snap counts (376, 34%) and given praise coming into the season and the increased utilization in other spots on the field, Simmons is looking like the key piece of this defense that he was (presumably) drafted to be. He spent time working with the safeties this offseason and he was recently named the defensive play-caller (given the green dot) for week 1. This aligns with his increased usage last season (1,005 and 94%) and the departure of other key defensive pieces in Jordan Hicks and Chandler Jones.

Right, wrong, or indifferent on how we got to this point, but we are here, and that place is “Success-town”, population Isaiah Simmons. I am sure there are plenty of people who held on tight to Simmons and always had the belief. Others though were most likely scared off from the low utilization, the lack of responsibility given, and even offseason talks that Jalen Thompson (Cardinals’ safety) would be the defensive play-caller this year. To those people I say, now is the time to get Simmons into your starting lineups! His talent, utilization, and opportunities are going to meet in a perfect storm, giving you a top end LB play this week and probably most of this season.

SIT: Anthony Walker Jr., Cleveland Browns, LB27

Going back-to-back in the FantasyPros rankings after Simmons is Anthony Walker Jr., and even though it is only one spot behind him, I would move Anthony Walker even further down that list. The primary reason for this? He is not even the best LB on his team… he might not even be in the top 2 for some people, and that is the case for me. I have him behind Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Jacob Phillips as LB3. This LB room ambiguity was not well-known in Cleveland due to other conversations in Cleveland (starting QB anyone?). There has been a some waffling on the green dot wearer for week 1 and for the season.

With so many things in the way of Walker succeeding and NFL defenses running almost no 3 LB sets to try and “guarantee” that Walker gets the snaps needed to be relevant, I am not rolling the dice on Walker of all people in that LB room. For me, it is JOK or pass. And I would rather pursue other 3-down LBs on other teams that give a better upside overall.

START: Kyler Gordon, Chicago Bears, Unranked

I am getting super deep on this one, but am a big believer in the slot role in Matt Eberflus led defenses. Kenny Moore has shown with the physical toolsets, the right coaching, and the opportunity a cornerback can be relevant. With Matt Eberflus taking over in Chicago, Kyler’s high draft capital and strong RAS, and him taking the lead on the slot role, all things are pointing up for Kyler Gordon!

Kyler Gordon to me is a player that will see the valuable snaps on the field as he was announced as the starter in the slot position and has taken most of his snaps there in the last two preseason games. The presumed microcosm of all of this, his first snap from the slot starting in preseason week 2, Eberflus blitze Gordon from the slot. In my opinion, that is just the beginning for him. With him taking the bulk (if not all) of his snaps so close to the ball and line of scrimmage, he has what we look for in DBs even but moreso for those leagues that require CBs. Also, historically rookie cornerbacks tend to see a strong number of targets against them that keep the floor and value safe for Kyler as well. He is basically free at this point and I am picking up all the shares of Kyler everywhere I can.

SIT (Fade or Trade): Jeremy Chinn, Carolina Panthers, DB5

So this is tough one to treat as a true “sit”. If you spent the required draft capital to require Chinn, it may be hard to actual have Chinn on your bench come week 1 this season. However, let’s just look at what we can probably more realistically do with Chinn, and that is trade him for a “tier down” at DB and maybe something more in another player or draft capital. But why would you get rid of someone from your roster that is a consensus top 5 DB (redraft and dynasty)?

It breaks down to two key components and one consideration. The first being the fact that Chinn has thrived almost exclusively on his ability to rack up tackles while taking the bulk of his snaps in the “Sweet Spot” (Box, Slot, DL) and his production comes heavily from his tackle production. He has not show big-play tendencies from his first two seasons combined:

  • 2 sacks
  • 2 interceptions
  • 3 fumbles (2 forced, 1 recovered)
  • 10 passes defensed
  • 8 TFLs
  • 10 QB hits

And this preseason he has taken 8 snaps in the “Sweet Spot” and 23 at free safety with new teammate, Xavier Woods, taking the bulk of those valuable snaps while they were both on the field. Knowing the usage looking like this and his past success heavily predicated on tackles (which are more easily achieved from the “Sweet Spot”), getting out on Jeremy Chinn now would be the best chance to maximize his value before it starts to potentially shift. Is this to say that if Chinn’s positional play shifts to a deep safety role he can’t produce? No, we have seen others do this; Justin Simmons and Minkah Fitzpatrick are great examples, but also tend to be the outliers. Chinn is good, but his value might be at his highest it will ever be right now, so now is the time to sell!

More Analysis by Jake