IDP Start/Sit: Week 15

Updated: December 14th 2023

 

Well, congratulations. You are reading this because you have made it to your fantasy football playoffs! Or you are just a degenerate of IDP football and you always want to learn. Both deserve congratulations, one just might get you a trophy yet this year though. Let’s dive in.

Week 14 Recap

DL:

Start: Samson Ebukam (1 solo, 1 assist) 👎 

Sit: Chase Young (1 PD) 👍

LB:

Start: Mykal Walker (1 solo, 2 assists, INT, PD) 👍 – Only 44% snaps. Saved by the INT. They seem to be moving on already due to his liability in pass coverage

Sit: Nicholas Morrow (4 solos, 2 assists, 2 PDs) 👎

DB:

Start: Kyle Hamilton (4 solos, 3 assists, TFL) 👍 – Only 56% of snaps, due to injury

Sit: Jalen Pitre (7 solos, 1 assist) 👎 – Apparently this was Zach Wilson’s coming out party???

Week 14 Starts & Sits

START: Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL44 (ED33)

Greg Rousseau and the Buffalo Bills have a huge matchup for the season and their playoff push this week against the Dallas Cowboys. Rousseau appears to be a strong option for our lineups this week as well as we make our push through the fantasy playoffs. Over the last 5 weeks, Rousseau has had one of his best stretches of the season with an impressive 22.6% win rate (8th best over that time). He has also produced 17 pressures that resulted in a 14.65% pass rush pressure rate. This is ideal as the Cowboys are one of the better teams in pressures allowed at 26% this season (one of the third best), but when they do allow those pressures, it is converting into a sack 14% of the time (one of third worst this season). But with Rousseau’s recent success, we can be confident in his ability to generate some pressure and that is most likely going to be converted into a sack this weekend. We are definitely chasing upside this week with a lower tackle floor from Rousseau, but the big plays are there for the taking this weekend.

SIT: Boye Mafe, Seattle Seahawks, DL35 (ED27)

Boye Mafe has had an opportunity to step up for the Seahawks this season with some key injuries and he has done a very nice job for the Seahawks (and IDP). In fact, he even had a stretch of 7 straight games with a sack! However this week, he draws a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. While they are middle of the pack at 26% pressures allowed, they are only allowing those to be converted into sacks at the third best rate of 8%. And despite Mafe’s wonderful production earlier in the season, his last 5 games we have seen his overall production dip a bit. His pressures show similar to Rousseau for our start with 18 pressures produced, however, it is done so with a very average win rate of 11.1%. This tends to indicate the pressures created are more flukey or due to broken plays and less sustainable. Mafe is a fade for me this weekend.

START: Josey Jewell, Denver Broncos, LB32

Josey Jewell has had a bit of an up-and-down season. He started as the green dot and 100% snap, 3-down linebacker for the Broncos. He got hurt, missed time, and seemingly lost his role to Alex Singleton. He saw reduction in his snaps and even a week 10 “demotion” to a non-starter role. However, his last 4 games since that week 10 have been very pleasing. His tackle production has been fairly average (24 tackles on 216 snaps, 11.1% efficiency), but what is exciting is the utilization as a pass-rusher that was not there to start the season. Over that same span he has 27 pass rush opportunities (24 opportunities in his previous 8 games) and he is making the most of it. He has 8 pressures, 5 hurries, a QB hit, and 2 sacks. This week he gets the Detroit Lions who are averaging 17.7 tackles to the LB position, which is one of the better matchups for LB production and this should help bring his floor up a little bit while providing a path to big-play upside.

SIT: David Mayo, Washington Commanders, LB46

David Mayo is coming back to the lineup, this time due to Jamin Davis’ injury. Mayo is a very plain LB. He comes in, does his job. He is not overly efficient, in fact, his tackle efficiency sits below league average for LB when he is in a starting role at 11.9% tackle efficiency. This is acceptable if you are looking for just a simple tackle floor, but at this point, I want to find players for our lineups that can help us WIN our playoff matchup. Mayo brings no real upside either with his pass-rush. His 2 sack game was more of a fluke than something we want to rely on going forward. He averages less than 3 pass rush attempts a game as a starter and the Los Angeles Rams are an overall negative matchup as well for LB scoring for IDP with only 14.9 tackles average to the position and a bottom third scoring overall. Mayo may help your sandwich this week, but I don’t see him helping your lineup in the playoffs.

START: Vonn Bell, Carolina Panthers, DB55 (S42)

Vonn Bell has been an IDP darling for many years from his time in Cincinatti. 1,000+ snap seasons, 90+ tackle seasons, and plenty of other splash plays to go along with it. His first year in Carolina has been a bit of a disappointment though, the uncertainty of the role alongside Chinn and Woods, as well as injuries. However, he seems to be back into a role he is familiar with as the box safety for a defense. Since coming back in week 10, in his 3 full games, he is playing 41.83% of his snaps in the box alignment. Along that same stretch he has provided 4, 7, and 7 tackle games. Enter the Atlanta Falcons and their 4th highest run rate in the NFL. This run rate and Bell’s alignment set him up for a very nice tackle game, but with the upside comes from Desmond Ridder’s 9 interceptions and 10 fumbles this season already through 13 games. It helps provide a nice boost to Bell’s range of outcomes this week along with his steady floor.

SIT: Trevon Moehrig, Las Vegas Raiders, DB42 (S33)

Trevon Moehrig has had a very nice IDP season this year as he has transitioned into more optimal alignment this season. Over the last two seasons we saw him go from 61 box snaps (out of 1,214), to 210 (out of 906), and this season he already has 266 box snaps. He has seen his best tackle totals already through 13 games as well. So why would we fade Moehrig, it is primarily due to his alignment shifting a bit away from the box recently, as well as a potentially bad matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Of his last 5 games, 4 have seen 15 or fewer box snaps with the peak being 21 and during that same stretch, he is averaging 5.2 tackles per game (that is with a 1 game spike of 10 tackles, too). Then his matchup against the Chargers with Easton Stick at QB, are likely to struggle to move the ball like last week and a short week with the Thursday night game, won’t do the Chargers any favors to keep the offense on the field and Moehrig with enough opportunities to support his production. Moehrig is a great story this season, but he is a fade this week.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

Updated: December 6th 2023

This is it. This is our last push for the playoffs (hopefully you wonderful readers have already locked that up though!). But just in case you need a little help finding some decisions or considerations for your lineups this week, let’s dive into my thoughts for week 14.

Week 13 Recap

DL:

Start: Osa Odighizuwa (3 solos, 3 assists,Qb hit, TFL) 👍

Sit: Denico Autry (3 solos, 1assist, 1 sack, QB hit, FF, PD) 👎

LB:

Start: Jack Campbell (4 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Only on 79% snaps, efficient, talent, but not locked in

Sit: Markquese Bell (4 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jordan Battle (4 solos, 3 assists, TFL, 1 sack, QB hit, PD) 👍

Sit: Richie Grant (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 FF) 👎 – Big play made the day for him this week

Week 14 Starts & Sits

START: Samson Ebukam, Indianapolis Colts, DL38 (ED31)

7-5 for the Colts is a bit of a surprise with some of the injuries that they have had to overcome. What has been a contributing factor to these surprising results? The play of that defensive front is a big part of this. DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye for sure, but Samson Ebukam has been very good for this front. But especially good over his last 3 games. 4 sacks, but has a 16.45% pressure rate, which is 6 points higher than his 10.14% pressure rate for the entire season. Enter the Cincinnati Bengals with a 27% pressure rate allowed this season as well as a 15% sack conversion rate on those pressures. Pair that with the Bengals seemingly more willing to utilize their passing attack with backup Jake Browning under center, this should set up for a favorable matchup and a good volume of opportunities for Ebukam.

SIT: Chase Young, San Francisco 49ers, DL20 (ED18)

It seems like nothing can stop the San Francisco 49ers recently. While the offense looks great, the defense is doing its part, too. And the addition of Chase Young was a very solid move for this team. However, in his 4 games with the 49ers, it has been feast or famine. 2 sacks and 1 tackle are his 4 games total. His 14.19% pressure rate over the time would leave us to believe he is an ideal play against the Seahawks this week and their usually favorable matchup. However, last week they showed a changeup in their offense to mitigate a strong Cowboys pass rush. They went to a very quick passing attack with Geno Smith’s time to throw of 2.31 seconds, which was way down from his season average of 2.76 (which includes this most recent game). The offense was successful, they didn’t surrender a sack, and this doesn’t look great for the 49ers pass-rush. Especially Chase Young, who doesn’t seem to have a tackle floor either.

START: Mykal Walker, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB27

Mykal Walker has been a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers for three whole weeks now. And due to some unfortunate health in the linebacker room, Walker has seen his role continue to increase, as well. Elandon Robert’s most recent groin injury is just the latest news in this ongoing saga. With his increased time in Pittsburgh, we have seen his production rise each week as well (from 3 tackles to 5 to 11 this last week). While his overall numbers are average in terms of efficiency, he is getting a very favorable matchup for LB tackle production in the New England Patriots. Their offensive situation over the last 3 games has netted an average of 20 tackles to the LB position for the Patriots’ opponents. This should be an ideal game for Mykal Walker to deliver above-average efficiency and increased volume due to the injuries, which will lead to a very good week for Mykal.

SIT: Nicholas Morrow, Philadelphia Eagles, LB30

Nicholas Morrow has been involved in another linebacker room that has dealt with a litany of injuries this season. It has even seen Morrow go from a starter to a backup role, and back to the starter again. While no one will argue Morrow’s ability to be on the field, align a defense, and play his role, his IDP production has been one of mediocre value at times throughout his career. This season has shown to be similar with a 9.61% tackle efficiency, almost 4 points lower than the league average and closer to safety tackle efficiency. With a crucial week 14 matchup against their division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, there is little concern as the last 3 weeks, the Cowboys’ opponents have only seen 15.3 tackles for the LB position. The inefficient play, combined with the less-than-favorable matchup, means Morrow is a fade for me.

START: Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens, DB34 (S26)

Kyle Hamilton has seen his IDP production shift a bit this year, as well as his alignment and utilization. Primarily deep safety, slot role, box safety, deep, and back to slot defender. And this has been his primary role now for the last three weeks taking over 40 snaps a week there. While his tackle production has been average at just under 5 a game during this period (that’s with a 1 tackle performance), we have seen him generate 5 pressures, 4 hurries, and a QB hit. He also has 2 PD’s to boot. The Rams matchup this week is less favorable for safeties overall in terms of tackle production, but Hamilton is more of a slot defender or box safety, which aren’t like your traditional safeties. Hamilton has shown a respectable tackle floor but his big-play upside is a great reason for him to deliver this week against the Los Angeles Rams.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB36 (S28)

Jalen Pitre is less than 1 season removed from an outstanding 144-tackle performance. This season has seen him regress to the mean as he is on a 93-tackle pace over a 17-game span. His alignment this year is a bit down from last year as well with 43% of his snaps coming from the sweet spot. Even with his reduction in production, and shifted utilization, Pitre is still a relatively consistent IDP performer. What makes him less-than-ideal this week, is the matchup against the New York Jets. The Jets are providing league-low tackles to their opponents’ safeties at 9.6 per game, with the last 3 games averaging 6.0. That is an extremely small pie to divide up among others, let alone one’s self. Pitre is a pass for me in week 14

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 13

Updated: November 29th 2023

 

Welcome to week 13, our penultimate matchup before the playoffs! Let’s get those lineups ready again as we secure our first-round byes, or our spots in the playoff, or at the very least, play spoiler to those still in it!

Week 12 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr. (2 solos, 2 assists, TFL) 👎

Sit: Shaquil Barrett (3 solos, assist) 👍

LB:

Start: Ivan Pace Jr. (7 solos, 2 assists, sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍

Sit: Frankie Luvu (Solo, assist) 👎

DB:

Start: Jonathan Owens (8 solos, 4 assists, TFL, FR, Def TD) 👍

Sit: Jevon Holland (5 solos, INT, PD, Def TD) 👎

Week 13 Starts & Sits

START: Osa Odighizuwa, Dallas Cowboys, DL60 (DT18)

Osa Odighizuwa, he not only has a fun name to say, but he also has the production to get into our IDP lineups. This is especially true in week 13. Osa has had a great year in terms of his pass rush success. He has a pass-rush pressure rate of 13.65% and he has a pass-rush win rate of 24.25% on the season. These are outstanding numbers, however, they have not resulted fully in the sack numbers you’d expect. I’d expect to see him with close to 5 sacks versus the 3 he has produced year-to-date. Getting a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks should help with that this week. They are allowing pressures on 32% of all dropbacks while 15% of those are being converted into sacks. This is a strong matchup for Odighizuwa to add to his sack total this season.

SIT: Denico Autry, Tennessee Titans, DL40 (ED27)

Denico Autry has had a wonderful season. 8 sacks is a great season for most pass-rushers, but Autry is at that number through 11 games and obviously pushing for more. Autry has been an bit of an over-producer this season though, with those 8 sacks coming on 32 pressures. And as we looked at with Osa, we would expect his sack total to be closer to 5 sacks at this point. His pass-rush production numbers are solid, but not elite either that it would lead me to believe that he is a true outlier with 10.22% pass rush rate and a 15.0% pass rush win rate. This week, Autry gets a less than ideal matchup in the Indianapolis Colts who are allowing only a 23% pressure rate per dropback this season and only 7% of those pressures are converted into sacks. This is a week where Autry likely regresses back to the mean.

START: Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions, LB41

Jack Campbell has been an IDP rookie darling of mine since the draft cycles this off-season. Now, due to an unfortunate injury, he might get the full-time role I was hoping he’d have secured by this point. Either way, Campbell has been quietly delivering a respectable baseline for IDP production. He has 49 tackles at a 12.82% efficiency. This is very average, but for a first year player, that is a good baseline to be achieving already. He has added a handful of splash plays, too. Week 13 is a good matchup as well, heading to New Orleans Jack Campbell is facing a Saints offense that is providing an average of 19.2 tackles per game to the linebacker position. Even at an even split with Derrick Barnes, that is still likely to yield an 8 – 10 tackle floor for them and Campbell is should easily take advantage this week.

SIT: Markquese Bell, Dallas Cowboys, LB36

Markquese Bell has stepped up in his role with the injuries and uncertainty at linebacker this year for the Cowboys. Starting in week 6 we have seen snap percentages of 53%, 73%, 94%, 39%, 85%, and 77%. The numbers have been relatively consistent, but Rashaan Evans has slowly been seeing his integration and snaps increasing as well, even if smaller. But that reduction is coming at the extent of someone else at times, and it seems to be Bell. It also doesn’t help that they already have an established safety group of three as well in Kearse, Wilson, and Malik Hooker that limits Bell’s ability to stay on the field. Pair the snap count concerns with the Seattle Seahawks matchup this weekend in a team that is only yielding 14.7 tackles per game to the linebabcker position, I do not like Bell’s range of outcomes this week.

START: Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32 (S28)

Rookie Jordan Battle is getting his opportunity this season due to injuries, but he has gone ahead and made the most of that. Filling in early two weeks ago and getting his frist fultime starting game, Battle quickly made the most of it with 19 total tackles. He projected as a strong tackling safety during the NFL draft process but has shown he can deliver that on the NFL field. While this is a small sample size, we love the production, but we also love the utilization. 58.26% of his snaps these last two weeks have come from the sweet spot alignments but his box utilization saw a jump from 18 snaps to 31 once after a week of preparing the defense with Battle known as the starter. Again, small sample sizes, but we are at the end of the season and we cannot wait several weeks to figure out some of these new roles and opportunities. But we can react to the information we have seen the teams already do. Battle should be a strong start while he maintains this role.

SIT: Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons, DB25 (S23)

Richie Grants was a defensive back I had a lot of belief in coming into this season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for his third season in the NFL. It has shown not only in his reduction in IDP production, but some of his worst PFF grades, especially is his overall defense and coverage grades. Most concerning though, is the last two weeks he has dipped below 100% snap percentage and this last week it was down to 75%! Up to this point, he has delivered slightly above average tackle efficiency, but if he isn’t producing outlier numbers and his utilization is going to drop, his IDP production becomes concerning on a week-to-week basis. Enter the New York Jets for this week, they are allowing the lowest numbers of tackles to opposing safeties at 9.9 per game.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 10

Updated: November 8th 2023

 

Week 10 is upon, we are halfway through the NFL season and a bit further through our fantasy seasons. Week 9 was a bit of a hit and miss, but we definitely found some values and we have some great values for you here going into week 10 that will hopefully help you make your push into the fantasy playoffs.

Week 9 Recap

DL:

Start: Jadeveon Clowney (2 solos, 1 assist, 2 PD) 👎 – 2 PDs keep this from being a bad week at least

Sit: Jonathan Greenard (2 solos, 3 QB hits) 👍 – Very close to being a big week though!

LB:

Start: Blake Cashman (5 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 

Sit: Kaden Elliss (5 solos, 4 assists, PD) 👎 

DB:

Start: Trent McDuffie (8 solos, 2 assists, FF) 👍

Sit: Trevon Moehrig (5 solos, 1 sack, TFL, QB hit) 👎

Week 9 Starts & Sits

START: Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL61 (DT16)

If you heard any of my offseason chatter, you probably know that Kancey was one of my favorites and I really loved the landing spot in Tampa Bay for him. He got off to a rough start battling injuries. He saw 11 snaps week 1 and then didn’t play again until week 6. But since then, Kancey has 4 straight games of 40+ snaps and just saw 59 in week 9. He is averaging 4 pressures, 2 tackles, 0.5 sacks over that span as well. While these are not “stop-the-presses” type of numbers, what they are is consistent. And this is for a rookie has already missed a quarter of the season. I feel good about his continue prospects with what he has shown in his smaller sample this season. This week he gets to face off against the Tennessee Titans, who are allowing the 2nd most pressures per drop back at 33% this season. It’s not just the pressures, but also the conversions into sacks is 6th worst in the NFL at 17%. This is an ideal pass-rush matchup for the Buccaneers as a unit, but I think we see more growth and more importantly, production, from Calijah Kancey this week.

SIT: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL29 (ED24)

Khalil Mack has shown us some explosive performances already this season. In week 4 he has 6 sacks and week 9 he had 2 sacks. These 8 sacks came against a rookie QB who just kept holding on to the ball in first regular season start, Aidan O’ Connell,  and a QB who is constantly being questioned if he should be a starting QB in Zach Wilson. This accounts for 8 of his 9 sacks and also 18 of his 39 total pressures this season. He is capable of capitalizing in ideal matchups, however, week 10 does not appear to be one of those matchups as the Chargers take on the Detroit Lions. The Lions have the 5th best pressure rate allowed (23%) and 2nd best sack conversion percentage (8%) and have shown a clear desire to run the ball with the 9th highest run percentage and Mack has not been the Mack of his prime and his tackle floor is severely limited to less than 2 tackles per game as well this season.

START: Patrick Queen, Baltimore Ravens, LB15

Telling you to start a top 15 LB rank maybe seems like a silly thing to say, but Patrick Queen has shown that he can deliver an average tackle floor, but what is the real kicker is he has consistent pass-rush utilization. He averages over 7 pass rush attempts a game and has converted 4 of his 64 pass rush attempts into sacks this season. Queen has the clear upside each week with his pass rush ability, but this week, against the Cleveland Browns, we will see his tackle floor and production increase. The Cleveland Browns are the 2nd most friendly team for LBs in terms of tackle production, with an average of 19.3 tackles per games to LBs. And Roquan and Queen are the essential LBs that play nearly every snap, so most of the tackles should be piled up between them.

SIT: Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions, LB32

Alex Anzalone continues to be the lead LB in Detriot even after they spent a first round pick on Jack Campbell. And Jack Campbell seems to be coming on as the LB2 (maybe LB1 of the near future), but even with Anzalone holding down the lead role, he has not been the pinnacle of efficiency. His tackle efficiency on the season is below league average with his 11.6%. This shows too as he has only had 7 or more tackles twice this season. His upside has been relatively limited outside of his week 8 game against Las Vegas where he had 8 pass rush attempts and converted it into 2 sacks. Every other game this year he had less than 5 pass rush attempts and only converted it into 1 sack. Now with his week 10 matchup against the Chargers, we have a less than ideal one as the Chargers are providing the lowest number of tackles per game to LB’s at 13.4 (thank you to PFF’s Jon Macri for this tidbit).

START: Alontae Taylor, New Orleans Saints, UNRANKED

Alontae Taylor has a seen the football plenty this year. He is tied for first among all defenders for total targets faced this season at 66. He hasn’t turned this into earth-shattering numbers, but very stable numbers. He is averaging 4.25 tackles and 1 PD per game. While 5 of his 8 PDs did come in week 3 against the Packers, this highlights the kind of boom upside he can deliver along with a solid tackle floor. It helps that he is playing a lot of his snaps out of the slot defender position to the tune of 391 of his 487 snaps coming from the slot alignment. Then enter the Minnesota Vikings and their 3rd highest passing percentage this year at 65.3% of all their plays being pass plays. And don’t fret that Joshua Dobbs is coming into to town, he took 38 drop backs after coming in for the injured Jaren Hall. With a full week of prep and learning, I think it is safe to say they will still be passing at a higher volume. The safe floor, the volume of opportunities he should see this week, and his ability to show us boom weeks are the reasons we should be getting Alontae Taylor into our lineups this week.

SIT: Keisean Nixon, Green Bay Packers, DB38 (CB8)

Keisean Nixon burst onto the scene last year thanks to his explosive play on special teams and some injuries to the Packers’ secondary. He has done a great job carving out his role as the primary slot defender and delivered IDP relevance as well this year. He has taken 279 of his 364 snaps in the slot alignment and delivered 33 tackles and 3 PDs this season. While this is very viable in our lineups (especially CB required), this week he faces off against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are 11th in percentage of plays that are passing plays, however, the do not like to utilize their slot WRs with regularity. Over the last 3 games, they have only targeted them a combined 7 times. Whereas Nixon, over that same span, has seen 14 targets. If you are going to cut the tackle floor of my IDP in half potentially based on the matchup and utilization, he quickly becomes a concern for me and since the new kickoff role and the limited returns seen this season, I lose confidence in starting them.

 

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 4

Updated: September 27th 2023

 

Here we are. Week 4. Some of us are celebrating our start, others about to panic. Wherever you land in there, let’s take a breath, focus in on week 4, and find some great options for your lineup to get your team heading towards that playoff birth!

Week 3 Recap

DL:

Start: Greg Rousseau (1 sack, 1 solo) 👍

Sit: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (2 solos) 👍

LB:

Start: Alex Anzalone (4 solos, 1 assist) 👎

Sit: Nick Bolton (Injured)

DB:

Start: Dax Hill (1 sack, 6 solos, 1 assist) 👍

Sit: Kyler Dugger (5 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👎

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Za’Darius Smith, Cleveland Browns, DL46 (ED33)

The Cleveland Browns have one of the best defenses to kick off the 2023 season. While Myles Garrett has been on a tear, Smith has been quite productive in his own right, while it has not fully come through on the box score, yet.

He has 9 pressures and 4 QB hits on 73 pass rush snaps. While this has not netted a sack yet, this matchup in week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens. We targeted the Ravens matchup in week 1 for Will Anderson, and for the same reasons, we are doing it again. Lamar has an average time to throw of 2.82 seconds. This matchup along with Smith’s success winning his matchups up front, with a very strong 27.3% win rate in true pass rush sets. This looks like a great week for Za’Darius to notch his first sack of the season.

SIT: Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers, DL25 (ED20)

Gary has done an amazing job coming back from a very serious injury last season and has already shown us what we saw in his limited breakout campaign last season before getting hurt. 4 sacks through his first 3 games, how could we “sit” Gary? Well, in comes the Detroit Lions on Thursday night with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and an offense that appreciates a run/pass balance and focuses on getting the ball out of Goff’s hands (2.56 seconds for his time to throw).

These matchup concerns and a short week for the Packers’ defense could be better and make Gary a bit of a risk to play as a DL2 for me. He is already a limited participant from his own injury, but the potential downgrades across the rest of the defense (Campbell and Jaire) don’t help the overall case either. Gary has the talent to deliver for a lineup still, but I am planning for a bit of down week.

START: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos, LB48

The “King of Tackle Efficiency” has not worn his crown this year while only logging a slightly above-average tackle efficiency of 13.33%. This week, against the Bears, the Broncos linebackers should find a nice bounce-back game as opposing linebackers have had top-10 performances against the Chicago Bears. Also, Josey Jewell is no guarantee for this matchup either experiencing a groin injury that took him out of week 3.

Singleton has a chance to take the lead role this week against a hapless offense and find a way back on top of the tackle efficiency hill… or at the very least, be a strong top 30 LB play for us in week 4 of our IDP seasons!

SIT: Tremaine Edmunds, Chicago Bears, LB20

Tremaine Edmunds has seen some heat this season from Chicago fans since his big contract this off-season and the lack of a good start from either side of the ball for the Bears. Edmunds has been very effective as a tackler, with one of the best seasons in his career, at 16.04% tackle efficiency. So why bench or fade Edmunds this week?

This comes down to the matchup and opportunity. Edmunds saw his snap count dip a bit last week and with no clear injury or understanding at this time from the coach, this is a little concerning. And for the Denver Broncos, opposing LBs have not fared as well for IDP against them. In fact, they are bottom 5 in points given up to LBs. For these reasons, I am passing on Edmunds as an LB2 this week. 

START: Rudy Ford, Green Bay Packers, DB46 (S43)

Last season, Rudy Ford was an afterthought at the start of the 2022 season. But by the end, and going into 2023, Ford was the presumed starter for a solid Packers defense and has found a way to be successful for IDP in this new role.

He has notched 20 tackles on 212 defensive snaps. Along with 2 PBUs Rudy Ford has a decent start to the IDP season. His alignment and usage have been good, but not great as well. Taking 49.05% of his snaps within the sweet spot (DL, Box, Slot) alignments, he has made the most and gets a team in the Detroit Lions, that are top 10 in scoring for opposing teams’ safeties. And with Sam LaPorta off to a hot start and Goff’s tendency to target inside the numbers, Ford is in line for a much better performance than anticipated for week 4.

SIT: Tyrann Mathieu, New Orleans Saints, DB36 (S35)

Tyrann has played an ideal role with strong alignment in the sweet spot at, 57.9% of his snaps. However, he has had mediocre delivery for IDP with this usage. 12 total tackles on 202 snaps, 1 pass break-up, and only 2 pass rush opportunities. The under-performance for the first 3 weeks has me a bit concerned about his ability to deliver in this next matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bucs have been a bottom-half IDP scoring team for opposing safeties and looked to have been a bit exposed against the Eagles in week 3. Getting pressure on Mayfield and getting him out of the pocket has led to less success and shorter drives, which can limit our IDP upside as well.

For this week, I am out on Mathieu and I would be wary for the remainder of the season as well.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 2

Updated: September 13th 2023

Your offensive side of the ball probably felt a little rough in week 1. But IDP as a whole looked great, and the choices from last week’s article weren’t too bad either. The process checked out for us at DL. LB looked OK, would have liked to see a bit more opportunity for Elliss in pass-rush. The Cowboy’s defense as a unit looked great, but with some big plays and a bad Giants offense, Kearse never did a whole lot. On to week 2!

Week 1 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr (4 solos, 2 assist, TFL, sack, 2 QB hits. 19.1 pts) 👍

Sit: Aidan Hutchinson (3 solos, assist, 3 QB hits. 10.5 pts) 👍

LB:

Start: Kaden Elliss (6 solos, 3 assists. 9.8 pts) 👎

Sit: Jamin Davis (4 solos, 2 assists, TFL. 9.5 pts) 👍

DB:

Start: Jayron Kearse (2 solos, 5 assists. 6.3 pts) 👎

Sit: Jeremy Chinn (3 solos, 4 assists. 6.8 pts) 👍

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL38 (Edge28)

Khalil Mack against the Titans is shaping up to be a very plus matchup overall. The Titans offensive live was a mess in week 1 with the third worst pressure rate allowed at 29%. The Titans also threw the ball 62.7% of the time last week despite being in a fairly neutral game script. If those things continue and Mack shows us more of what he did in week 1, a sack+ type of game is definitely in the cards. He generated 6 pressures on 35 pass-rush snaps for a whopping 17.1% pass-rush pressure rate. He did not convert any into a sack and his tackles were limited, but I am excited for a potential big game for him this week.

SIT: Quinnen Williams, New York Jets, DL19 (DT2)

“Blasphemy!”… I know. You might not have a better option than Quinnen and I am not saying you can’t start him. But definitely temper expectations this week, in my opinion. The Cowboys just faced a very strong front in the Giants and the Cowboys seemed to have a plan to get the ball out quickly with Dak at a league-low of 2.11 seconds in his time to throw. Pair that with a game script that is very much in question with the Jets offense and its identity without Aaron Rodgers.

I love Quinnen and his one of the top DL’s in the game today and will likely make a handful of plays, but I would reduce expectations, or if you are fortunate enough to have depth at the position, consider others in a better overall situation this week.

START: Azeez Al-Shaair, Tennessee Titans, LB23

On the other side of the Chargers and Titans matchup, Al-Shaair looks like a great play at LB with a Chargers offense that was efficient and able to run a whopping 76 plays last week but more amazingly, had 40 rush attempts. Kellen Moore seems to have a game plan to run the ball so far and Azeez should be able to do a lot of the work in the middle of that defense making plays. His initial performance of 5 total tackles should be an easy top with the upside of 9-10 tackles, assuming league average tackle efficiency of 12%.

I like Azeez as a high-end LB2 with the strong tackle floor and likely, positive game script for the Chargers offense.

SIT: De’Vondre Campbell, Green Bay Packers, LB16

Campbell and the Packers take on the Falcons in week 2 and what appears to be another year of the Arthur Smith “run the ball at all costs” show. The Falcons ran an impressively low 48 plays in their victory in week 1, some of this was due to short fields, and some of it, is just due to the nature of their gameplan.

Campbell did not play 100% of the snaps either, he was closer to 80%. And 80% of 50 snaps at 12% tackle efficiency, is not a great floor. Even if you boost the floor a bit because of a focus on RB targets, it still leaves us wanting more. So without more certainty around snap counts and a less-than-ideal matchup, I am fading Campbell this week.

START: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB39 (S38)

Jevon Holland already had a great start in week 1 with 13 total tackles. A lot of this has to do with his strong alignment usage with 22 box snaps and 18 slot snaps; that’s 50% of his snaps in ideal alignment. He did this with a strong PFF performance too, 77+ across the board, and peaking at 86.4 for his overall grade. Now he takes a great week 1 performance into New England. With Bill O’ Brien as the new OC, the Patriots showed they aren’t afraid to air it out and against a strong offense in Miami, it is likely we see the Patriots throwing it a lot again. Holland has a good base with his alignment and this matchup looks like it will be a favorable one for the Dolphins secondary.

SIT: Marcus Maye, New Orleans Saints, DB28 (S27)

Marcus Maye generally plays the “deep safety” role and he played 69.8% of his snaps in that role in week 1 against the Titans. Now he takes on the Panthers and a rookie QB with limited weapons and that showed in how the passing attack looked in week 1. Bryce Young only attempted 2 passes beyond 20 yards and 8 passes beyond 10 yards. This means 28 of his attempts were less than yards downfield. The alignment and the matchup are not a favorable one, for a tackle floor or for the opportunity to make splash plays. Maye is not a great play for this week.

More Analysis by Jake