IDP Start/Sit: Week 13

Updated: November 29th 2023

 

Welcome to week 13, our penultimate matchup before the playoffs! Let’s get those lineups ready again as we secure our first-round byes, or our spots in the playoff, or at the very least, play spoiler to those still in it!

Week 12 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr. (2 solos, 2 assists, TFL) 👎

Sit: Shaquil Barrett (3 solos, assist) 👍

LB:

Start: Ivan Pace Jr. (7 solos, 2 assists, sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍

Sit: Frankie Luvu (Solo, assist) 👎

DB:

Start: Jonathan Owens (8 solos, 4 assists, TFL, FR, Def TD) 👍

Sit: Jevon Holland (5 solos, INT, PD, Def TD) 👎

Week 13 Starts & Sits

START: Osa Odighizuwa, Dallas Cowboys, DL60 (DT18)

Osa Odighizuwa, he not only has a fun name to say, but he also has the production to get into our IDP lineups. This is especially true in week 13. Osa has had a great year in terms of his pass rush success. He has a pass-rush pressure rate of 13.65% and he has a pass-rush win rate of 24.25% on the season. These are outstanding numbers, however, they have not resulted fully in the sack numbers you’d expect. I’d expect to see him with close to 5 sacks versus the 3 he has produced year-to-date. Getting a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks should help with that this week. They are allowing pressures on 32% of all dropbacks while 15% of those are being converted into sacks. This is a strong matchup for Odighizuwa to add to his sack total this season.

SIT: Denico Autry, Tennessee Titans, DL40 (ED27)

Denico Autry has had a wonderful season. 8 sacks is a great season for most pass-rushers, but Autry is at that number through 11 games and obviously pushing for more. Autry has been an bit of an over-producer this season though, with those 8 sacks coming on 32 pressures. And as we looked at with Osa, we would expect his sack total to be closer to 5 sacks at this point. His pass-rush production numbers are solid, but not elite either that it would lead me to believe that he is a true outlier with 10.22% pass rush rate and a 15.0% pass rush win rate. This week, Autry gets a less than ideal matchup in the Indianapolis Colts who are allowing only a 23% pressure rate per dropback this season and only 7% of those pressures are converted into sacks. This is a week where Autry likely regresses back to the mean.

START: Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions, LB41

Jack Campbell has been an IDP rookie darling of mine since the draft cycles this off-season. Now, due to an unfortunate injury, he might get the full-time role I was hoping he’d have secured by this point. Either way, Campbell has been quietly delivering a respectable baseline for IDP production. He has 49 tackles at a 12.82% efficiency. This is very average, but for a first year player, that is a good baseline to be achieving already. He has added a handful of splash plays, too. Week 13 is a good matchup as well, heading to New Orleans Jack Campbell is facing a Saints offense that is providing an average of 19.2 tackles per game to the linebacker position. Even at an even split with Derrick Barnes, that is still likely to yield an 8 – 10 tackle floor for them and Campbell is should easily take advantage this week.

SIT: Markquese Bell, Dallas Cowboys, LB36

Markquese Bell has stepped up in his role with the injuries and uncertainty at linebacker this year for the Cowboys. Starting in week 6 we have seen snap percentages of 53%, 73%, 94%, 39%, 85%, and 77%. The numbers have been relatively consistent, but Rashaan Evans has slowly been seeing his integration and snaps increasing as well, even if smaller. But that reduction is coming at the extent of someone else at times, and it seems to be Bell. It also doesn’t help that they already have an established safety group of three as well in Kearse, Wilson, and Malik Hooker that limits Bell’s ability to stay on the field. Pair the snap count concerns with the Seattle Seahawks matchup this weekend in a team that is only yielding 14.7 tackles per game to the linebabcker position, I do not like Bell’s range of outcomes this week.

START: Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32 (S28)

Rookie Jordan Battle is getting his opportunity this season due to injuries, but he has gone ahead and made the most of that. Filling in early two weeks ago and getting his frist fultime starting game, Battle quickly made the most of it with 19 total tackles. He projected as a strong tackling safety during the NFL draft process but has shown he can deliver that on the NFL field. While this is a small sample size, we love the production, but we also love the utilization. 58.26% of his snaps these last two weeks have come from the sweet spot alignments but his box utilization saw a jump from 18 snaps to 31 once after a week of preparing the defense with Battle known as the starter. Again, small sample sizes, but we are at the end of the season and we cannot wait several weeks to figure out some of these new roles and opportunities. But we can react to the information we have seen the teams already do. Battle should be a strong start while he maintains this role.

SIT: Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons, DB25 (S23)

Richie Grants was a defensive back I had a lot of belief in coming into this season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for his third season in the NFL. It has shown not only in his reduction in IDP production, but some of his worst PFF grades, especially is his overall defense and coverage grades. Most concerning though, is the last two weeks he has dipped below 100% snap percentage and this last week it was down to 75%! Up to this point, he has delivered slightly above average tackle efficiency, but if he isn’t producing outlier numbers and his utilization is going to drop, his IDP production becomes concerning on a week-to-week basis. Enter the New York Jets for this week, they are allowing the lowest numbers of tackles to opposing safeties at 9.9 per game.

 

Subscribe to The IDP Show so you don’t miss an episode!

 

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 11

Updated: November 16th 2023

IDP Start/Sit: Week 11

 

Week 10 was not our best outcome of the season with only 2 good picks, but the process looked good for most of them. Variance can be our friend, but this week, it was not. But let’s move forward to week 11 and talk through our lineups as we near playoff time.

Week 10 Recap

DL:

Start: Calijah Kancey (3 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits) 👍 – 2 big plays in the backfield, I like this as a good week.

Sit: Khalil Mack (4 solos, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) 👎 – A borderline game, I took the W on Kancey, I’ll take the L on Mack

LB:

Start: Patrick Queen (6 solos, 3 assists) 👎 – I thought we would see more beyond on just standard tackles this week. I’ll take the L on that.

Sit: Alex Anzalone (4 solos, 5 assists, PD, QB hit) 👎 

DB:

Start: Alontae Taylor (4 solos, 1 assist, TFL, 2 PDs) 👍

Sit: Keisean Nixon (2 solos, 2 assists, PD, 151 return yards) 👎

Week 11 Starts & Sits

START: Kyle Van Noy, Baltimore Ravens, DL42 (ED33)

Kyle Van Noy has done it again, he has found a team, he has found a role, and he is finding a way to deliver IDP value. The Ravens’ defense as a whole has been excellent this year and many are finding success but it is fun to see a veteran role player making such an impact. He has had a nice run over his last three games as well. 12 pressures, 2 sacks, but he has been so close on quite a few, too. Add an additional QB hit and 9 hurries to go along and you can see how he has been not only delivering, but the potential to have more on top of that. He was dealing with a groin injury this week but was a full participant on practice on Wednesday so you can feel confident about his usage this week which over the last 3 weeks has been good as a more of the pass rush specialist, at 36 snaps per game. This does limit his tackle floor and explain his lowered ranking, but when you need to stream that DL spot or are chasing sack upside, Van Noy is our guy this week. His matchup against the Bengals should be a plus matchup overall as well with the Bengals allowing just over 17 pressures per game over their last 3 as well. The Ravens offense has played very well this season and his likely to keep this in a negative game script or at least neutral for the Bengals, meaning more pass rushing opportunities overall. The intersection of Van Noy’s performance and the Bengals looking like a plus matchup make Van Noy a great streaming candidate.

SIT: Montez Sweat, Chicago Bears, DL15 (ED14)

Montez Sweat has had a very good IDP season so far and has done so in a consistent fashion that really shouldn’t warrant a sitting or fading of him in our lineups. 27 pressures on 239 pass rush snaps for a very respectable 12.29% pass rush pressure rate. He has done well to convert those pressures into sacks with 8 on the season already. Additionally, he has delivered an average of 3 tackles a game too as a nice little baseline. So why are we considering fading Sweat? It is a little bit his change of scenery and a lot more his unfavorable matchup against the Detroit Lions. In his 2 games, he has shown a lot less activity in the run defense of the game and has only compiled 2 total tackles. Small sample, I know, but it is still a bit concerning at this point and takes away from the floor he had in Washington. Then, enter the Detroit Lions and their 3rd best pressure rate allowed 2nd best sack conversion percentage. Sweat has shown an ability to deliver and if you don’t have many other options, he is still capable from talent alone to make his week on one big play, but for me, I am lowering my expectations on Montez Sweat this week.

START: Elandon Roberts, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB26

Elandon Roberts seems to be the last man standing in Pittsburgh with Kwon Alexander suffering a significant injury last week, and Holcomb is already on IR, it is Robert’s show to run at this point for the Steelers’ LB room. Roberts is well known as a solid run defender but not so much for his coverage skills, well enter a Cleveland Browns team that already surrenders some of the most tackles per game to their opponents’ linebackers and now has lost their starting QB in Deshaun Watson for the season. And a team without its starting QB is likely to lean into its run game to help “cover up” its lesser QB. To say this is an ideal matchup for Roberts, might be one of the biggest understatements. Roberts should be in all of our lineups this week.

SIT: De’Vondre Campbell, Green Bay Packers, LB27

De’Vondre Campbell, after missing some time earlier this season, has ended up back in the lead role with Quay Walker experiencing his own injury issues. His production was strong in his first week back against Minnesota with 14 tackles and a handful of other plays. However, the last two weeks he has averaged 5.5 tackles, with only 4 of them as the solo variety. And early in this week, he might be moving back into a smaller role with Quary Walker logging a limited practice on Wednesday already and McDuffie showing his viability during the injuries of Campbell and Walker, too. Reduced opportunities aren’t always the end of an LB’s IDP viability, however, the lowered opportunities paired with a matchup against the team allowing the lowest tackles and IDP scoring to their opposing linebackers is not a good thing. And that is what Campbell has in facing off against the Los Angeles Chargers.

START: Kevin Byard, Philadelphia Eagles, DB35 (S27)

Kevin Byard had his chance of scenery this year, just like Montez Sweat, and Byard has done a nice job maintaining his IDP production with the Eagles. His tackle floor has dipped just shy of 1 tackle per game, but he has maintained a great “sweet spot” utilization at 51.7% the last two games. In week 11, Byard gets the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has normally been a QB who doesn’t make many mistakes, however, this year has been a bit different, he already has 13 turnover-worthy plays this season through 9 games, whereas last 3 years he has averaged closer to 20 a season. Byard, who is normally a consistent play-maker, has yet to make that mark this season. And in a matchup with a team that has the 6th highest pass rate, a QB who is making more mistakes than usual, and a defender in Byard who likely has positive regression towards making a splash play to go along with a solid tackle floor, gives me a lot of confidence in firing up Kevin Byard in all my lineups.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB23 (S18)

Jalen Pitre was the IDP darling last season with his other-worldly tackle production. His 2023 production has not matched this at all, but has been viable for our IDP lineups this year. However, last week we saw a shift away from Pitre as a box safety and get his lowest “sweet spot” utilization at 25% and it resulted in his worst tackle performance of the season with 1 solo tackle. Week 11 opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, don’t help Pitre’s overall opportunities with their bottom-third plays run per game at 61 plays. Even with Murray back last week, they still only ran 60 plays. They are not the higher-tempo offense we saw under Kliff Kingsbury. With the potential shift in his alignment and usage and the lowered ceiling of opportunities in fewer plays to defend, I am lower on Pitre’s potential outcomes.

 

Subscribe to The IDP Show so you don’t miss an episode!

 

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 10

Updated: November 8th 2023

 

Week 10 is upon, we are halfway through the NFL season and a bit further through our fantasy seasons. Week 9 was a bit of a hit and miss, but we definitely found some values and we have some great values for you here going into week 10 that will hopefully help you make your push into the fantasy playoffs.

Week 9 Recap

DL:

Start: Jadeveon Clowney (2 solos, 1 assist, 2 PD) 👎 – 2 PDs keep this from being a bad week at least

Sit: Jonathan Greenard (2 solos, 3 QB hits) 👍 – Very close to being a big week though!

LB:

Start: Blake Cashman (5 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 

Sit: Kaden Elliss (5 solos, 4 assists, PD) 👎 

DB:

Start: Trent McDuffie (8 solos, 2 assists, FF) 👍

Sit: Trevon Moehrig (5 solos, 1 sack, TFL, QB hit) 👎

Week 9 Starts & Sits

START: Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL61 (DT16)

If you heard any of my offseason chatter, you probably know that Kancey was one of my favorites and I really loved the landing spot in Tampa Bay for him. He got off to a rough start battling injuries. He saw 11 snaps week 1 and then didn’t play again until week 6. But since then, Kancey has 4 straight games of 40+ snaps and just saw 59 in week 9. He is averaging 4 pressures, 2 tackles, 0.5 sacks over that span as well. While these are not “stop-the-presses” type of numbers, what they are is consistent. And this is for a rookie has already missed a quarter of the season. I feel good about his continue prospects with what he has shown in his smaller sample this season. This week he gets to face off against the Tennessee Titans, who are allowing the 2nd most pressures per drop back at 33% this season. It’s not just the pressures, but also the conversions into sacks is 6th worst in the NFL at 17%. This is an ideal pass-rush matchup for the Buccaneers as a unit, but I think we see more growth and more importantly, production, from Calijah Kancey this week.

SIT: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL29 (ED24)

Khalil Mack has shown us some explosive performances already this season. In week 4 he has 6 sacks and week 9 he had 2 sacks. These 8 sacks came against a rookie QB who just kept holding on to the ball in first regular season start, Aidan O’ Connell,  and a QB who is constantly being questioned if he should be a starting QB in Zach Wilson. This accounts for 8 of his 9 sacks and also 18 of his 39 total pressures this season. He is capable of capitalizing in ideal matchups, however, week 10 does not appear to be one of those matchups as the Chargers take on the Detroit Lions. The Lions have the 5th best pressure rate allowed (23%) and 2nd best sack conversion percentage (8%) and have shown a clear desire to run the ball with the 9th highest run percentage and Mack has not been the Mack of his prime and his tackle floor is severely limited to less than 2 tackles per game as well this season.

START: Patrick Queen, Baltimore Ravens, LB15

Telling you to start a top 15 LB rank maybe seems like a silly thing to say, but Patrick Queen has shown that he can deliver an average tackle floor, but what is the real kicker is he has consistent pass-rush utilization. He averages over 7 pass rush attempts a game and has converted 4 of his 64 pass rush attempts into sacks this season. Queen has the clear upside each week with his pass rush ability, but this week, against the Cleveland Browns, we will see his tackle floor and production increase. The Cleveland Browns are the 2nd most friendly team for LBs in terms of tackle production, with an average of 19.3 tackles per games to LBs. And Roquan and Queen are the essential LBs that play nearly every snap, so most of the tackles should be piled up between them.

SIT: Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions, LB32

Alex Anzalone continues to be the lead LB in Detriot even after they spent a first round pick on Jack Campbell. And Jack Campbell seems to be coming on as the LB2 (maybe LB1 of the near future), but even with Anzalone holding down the lead role, he has not been the pinnacle of efficiency. His tackle efficiency on the season is below league average with his 11.6%. This shows too as he has only had 7 or more tackles twice this season. His upside has been relatively limited outside of his week 8 game against Las Vegas where he had 8 pass rush attempts and converted it into 2 sacks. Every other game this year he had less than 5 pass rush attempts and only converted it into 1 sack. Now with his week 10 matchup against the Chargers, we have a less than ideal one as the Chargers are providing the lowest number of tackles per game to LB’s at 13.4 (thank you to PFF’s Jon Macri for this tidbit).

START: Alontae Taylor, New Orleans Saints, UNRANKED

Alontae Taylor has a seen the football plenty this year. He is tied for first among all defenders for total targets faced this season at 66. He hasn’t turned this into earth-shattering numbers, but very stable numbers. He is averaging 4.25 tackles and 1 PD per game. While 5 of his 8 PDs did come in week 3 against the Packers, this highlights the kind of boom upside he can deliver along with a solid tackle floor. It helps that he is playing a lot of his snaps out of the slot defender position to the tune of 391 of his 487 snaps coming from the slot alignment. Then enter the Minnesota Vikings and their 3rd highest passing percentage this year at 65.3% of all their plays being pass plays. And don’t fret that Joshua Dobbs is coming into to town, he took 38 drop backs after coming in for the injured Jaren Hall. With a full week of prep and learning, I think it is safe to say they will still be passing at a higher volume. The safe floor, the volume of opportunities he should see this week, and his ability to show us boom weeks are the reasons we should be getting Alontae Taylor into our lineups this week.

SIT: Keisean Nixon, Green Bay Packers, DB38 (CB8)

Keisean Nixon burst onto the scene last year thanks to his explosive play on special teams and some injuries to the Packers’ secondary. He has done a great job carving out his role as the primary slot defender and delivered IDP relevance as well this year. He has taken 279 of his 364 snaps in the slot alignment and delivered 33 tackles and 3 PDs this season. While this is very viable in our lineups (especially CB required), this week he faces off against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are 11th in percentage of plays that are passing plays, however, the do not like to utilize their slot WRs with regularity. Over the last 3 games, they have only targeted them a combined 7 times. Whereas Nixon, over that same span, has seen 14 targets. If you are going to cut the tackle floor of my IDP in half potentially based on the matchup and utilization, he quickly becomes a concern for me and since the new kickoff role and the limited returns seen this season, I lose confidence in starting them.

 

Subscribe to The IDP Show so you don’t miss an episode!

 

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 4

Updated: September 27th 2023

 

Here we are. Week 4. Some of us are celebrating our start, others about to panic. Wherever you land in there, let’s take a breath, focus in on week 4, and find some great options for your lineup to get your team heading towards that playoff birth!

Week 3 Recap

DL:

Start: Greg Rousseau (1 sack, 1 solo) 👍

Sit: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (2 solos) 👍

LB:

Start: Alex Anzalone (4 solos, 1 assist) 👎

Sit: Nick Bolton (Injured)

DB:

Start: Dax Hill (1 sack, 6 solos, 1 assist) 👍

Sit: Kyler Dugger (5 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👎

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Za’Darius Smith, Cleveland Browns, DL46 (ED33)

The Cleveland Browns have one of the best defenses to kick off the 2023 season. While Myles Garrett has been on a tear, Smith has been quite productive in his own right, while it has not fully come through on the box score, yet.

He has 9 pressures and 4 QB hits on 73 pass rush snaps. While this has not netted a sack yet, this matchup in week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens. We targeted the Ravens matchup in week 1 for Will Anderson, and for the same reasons, we are doing it again. Lamar has an average time to throw of 2.82 seconds. This matchup along with Smith’s success winning his matchups up front, with a very strong 27.3% win rate in true pass rush sets. This looks like a great week for Za’Darius to notch his first sack of the season.

SIT: Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers, DL25 (ED20)

Gary has done an amazing job coming back from a very serious injury last season and has already shown us what we saw in his limited breakout campaign last season before getting hurt. 4 sacks through his first 3 games, how could we “sit” Gary? Well, in comes the Detroit Lions on Thursday night with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and an offense that appreciates a run/pass balance and focuses on getting the ball out of Goff’s hands (2.56 seconds for his time to throw).

These matchup concerns and a short week for the Packers’ defense could be better and make Gary a bit of a risk to play as a DL2 for me. He is already a limited participant from his own injury, but the potential downgrades across the rest of the defense (Campbell and Jaire) don’t help the overall case either. Gary has the talent to deliver for a lineup still, but I am planning for a bit of down week.

START: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos, LB48

The “King of Tackle Efficiency” has not worn his crown this year while only logging a slightly above-average tackle efficiency of 13.33%. This week, against the Bears, the Broncos linebackers should find a nice bounce-back game as opposing linebackers have had top-10 performances against the Chicago Bears. Also, Josey Jewell is no guarantee for this matchup either experiencing a groin injury that took him out of week 3.

Singleton has a chance to take the lead role this week against a hapless offense and find a way back on top of the tackle efficiency hill… or at the very least, be a strong top 30 LB play for us in week 4 of our IDP seasons!

SIT: Tremaine Edmunds, Chicago Bears, LB20

Tremaine Edmunds has seen some heat this season from Chicago fans since his big contract this off-season and the lack of a good start from either side of the ball for the Bears. Edmunds has been very effective as a tackler, with one of the best seasons in his career, at 16.04% tackle efficiency. So why bench or fade Edmunds this week?

This comes down to the matchup and opportunity. Edmunds saw his snap count dip a bit last week and with no clear injury or understanding at this time from the coach, this is a little concerning. And for the Denver Broncos, opposing LBs have not fared as well for IDP against them. In fact, they are bottom 5 in points given up to LBs. For these reasons, I am passing on Edmunds as an LB2 this week. 

START: Rudy Ford, Green Bay Packers, DB46 (S43)

Last season, Rudy Ford was an afterthought at the start of the 2022 season. But by the end, and going into 2023, Ford was the presumed starter for a solid Packers defense and has found a way to be successful for IDP in this new role.

He has notched 20 tackles on 212 defensive snaps. Along with 2 PBUs Rudy Ford has a decent start to the IDP season. His alignment and usage have been good, but not great as well. Taking 49.05% of his snaps within the sweet spot (DL, Box, Slot) alignments, he has made the most and gets a team in the Detroit Lions, that are top 10 in scoring for opposing teams’ safeties. And with Sam LaPorta off to a hot start and Goff’s tendency to target inside the numbers, Ford is in line for a much better performance than anticipated for week 4.

SIT: Tyrann Mathieu, New Orleans Saints, DB36 (S35)

Tyrann has played an ideal role with strong alignment in the sweet spot at, 57.9% of his snaps. However, he has had mediocre delivery for IDP with this usage. 12 total tackles on 202 snaps, 1 pass break-up, and only 2 pass rush opportunities. The under-performance for the first 3 weeks has me a bit concerned about his ability to deliver in this next matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bucs have been a bottom-half IDP scoring team for opposing safeties and looked to have been a bit exposed against the Eagles in week 3. Getting pressure on Mayfield and getting him out of the pocket has led to less success and shorter drives, which can limit our IDP upside as well.

For this week, I am out on Mathieu and I would be wary for the remainder of the season as well.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 2

Updated: September 13th 2023

Your offensive side of the ball probably felt a little rough in week 1. But IDP as a whole looked great, and the choices from last week’s article weren’t too bad either. The process checked out for us at DL. LB looked OK, would have liked to see a bit more opportunity for Elliss in pass-rush. The Cowboy’s defense as a unit looked great, but with some big plays and a bad Giants offense, Kearse never did a whole lot. On to week 2!

Week 1 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr (4 solos, 2 assist, TFL, sack, 2 QB hits. 19.1 pts) 👍

Sit: Aidan Hutchinson (3 solos, assist, 3 QB hits. 10.5 pts) 👍

LB:

Start: Kaden Elliss (6 solos, 3 assists. 9.8 pts) 👎

Sit: Jamin Davis (4 solos, 2 assists, TFL. 9.5 pts) 👍

DB:

Start: Jayron Kearse (2 solos, 5 assists. 6.3 pts) 👎

Sit: Jeremy Chinn (3 solos, 4 assists. 6.8 pts) 👍

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL38 (Edge28)

Khalil Mack against the Titans is shaping up to be a very plus matchup overall. The Titans offensive live was a mess in week 1 with the third worst pressure rate allowed at 29%. The Titans also threw the ball 62.7% of the time last week despite being in a fairly neutral game script. If those things continue and Mack shows us more of what he did in week 1, a sack+ type of game is definitely in the cards. He generated 6 pressures on 35 pass-rush snaps for a whopping 17.1% pass-rush pressure rate. He did not convert any into a sack and his tackles were limited, but I am excited for a potential big game for him this week.

SIT: Quinnen Williams, New York Jets, DL19 (DT2)

“Blasphemy!”… I know. You might not have a better option than Quinnen and I am not saying you can’t start him. But definitely temper expectations this week, in my opinion. The Cowboys just faced a very strong front in the Giants and the Cowboys seemed to have a plan to get the ball out quickly with Dak at a league-low of 2.11 seconds in his time to throw. Pair that with a game script that is very much in question with the Jets offense and its identity without Aaron Rodgers.

I love Quinnen and his one of the top DL’s in the game today and will likely make a handful of plays, but I would reduce expectations, or if you are fortunate enough to have depth at the position, consider others in a better overall situation this week.

START: Azeez Al-Shaair, Tennessee Titans, LB23

On the other side of the Chargers and Titans matchup, Al-Shaair looks like a great play at LB with a Chargers offense that was efficient and able to run a whopping 76 plays last week but more amazingly, had 40 rush attempts. Kellen Moore seems to have a game plan to run the ball so far and Azeez should be able to do a lot of the work in the middle of that defense making plays. His initial performance of 5 total tackles should be an easy top with the upside of 9-10 tackles, assuming league average tackle efficiency of 12%.

I like Azeez as a high-end LB2 with the strong tackle floor and likely, positive game script for the Chargers offense.

SIT: De’Vondre Campbell, Green Bay Packers, LB16

Campbell and the Packers take on the Falcons in week 2 and what appears to be another year of the Arthur Smith “run the ball at all costs” show. The Falcons ran an impressively low 48 plays in their victory in week 1, some of this was due to short fields, and some of it, is just due to the nature of their gameplan.

Campbell did not play 100% of the snaps either, he was closer to 80%. And 80% of 50 snaps at 12% tackle efficiency, is not a great floor. Even if you boost the floor a bit because of a focus on RB targets, it still leaves us wanting more. So without more certainty around snap counts and a less-than-ideal matchup, I am fading Campbell this week.

START: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB39 (S38)

Jevon Holland already had a great start in week 1 with 13 total tackles. A lot of this has to do with his strong alignment usage with 22 box snaps and 18 slot snaps; that’s 50% of his snaps in ideal alignment. He did this with a strong PFF performance too, 77+ across the board, and peaking at 86.4 for his overall grade. Now he takes a great week 1 performance into New England. With Bill O’ Brien as the new OC, the Patriots showed they aren’t afraid to air it out and against a strong offense in Miami, it is likely we see the Patriots throwing it a lot again. Holland has a good base with his alignment and this matchup looks like it will be a favorable one for the Dolphins secondary.

SIT: Marcus Maye, New Orleans Saints, DB28 (S27)

Marcus Maye generally plays the “deep safety” role and he played 69.8% of his snaps in that role in week 1 against the Titans. Now he takes on the Panthers and a rookie QB with limited weapons and that showed in how the passing attack looked in week 1. Bryce Young only attempted 2 passes beyond 20 yards and 8 passes beyond 10 yards. This means 28 of his attempts were less than yards downfield. The alignment and the matchup are not a favorable one, for a tackle floor or for the opportunity to make splash plays. Maye is not a great play for this week.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 7

Updated: October 19th 2022

Week 7 is upon us and a lot of our season are shaping up to feeling great, trying to find a few more wins, or… hopefully for none of you, starting to think about next year. Regardless of how your doing, I hope you keep coming back and paying attention to the players and the process, this is kind of effort helps you better prepare for the next season at a minimum. Week 6 was rough for me, hopefully it was kinder to you and I right this ship for week 7. So let’s get to it!

DL:
Start: Odafe Oweh (2 solos)


Sit: Von Miller (2 sacks! 4 solos, TFLS, 2 QB hits) – He played his highest snap total this year! Maybe he is going to be a high end play going forward? Or Buffalo is saving him for bigger passing matchups?


LB:

Start: Alex Singleton (19 solos, 2 assists, 2 TFLs, 1 QB hit, PD)

Sit: Zaven Collins (2 sacks! 5 solos, 4 assists, 2 TFLs, 2 QB Hits, 1 PD)

 

DB:
Start: Chuck Clark (6 solos, FR)

Sit: Jalen Ramsey (3 solos, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 QB hit) – His day maybe “saved” with the sack, but the process seemed sound for this one

 

START: Dorance Armstrong, Dallas Cowboys, DL40

  • Snaps are solid, but not perfect. 214 total snaps. 600+ snap pace
  • Very effective with limited snaps, 12.8% pressure rate.
  • 68 pff pass rush grade on the season. Converting 17 pressures into 5 sacks
  • Limited tackle floor so playing for upside (does have a blocked punt too)
  • Very positive matchups not just this week against Detroit, but next week in Chicago as well

SIT: Emmanuel Ogbah, Miami Dolphins, DL23

  • Solid snaps, 259 total. 700+ snap pace.
  • Limited production creating pressure, 6.9% pressure rate this year
  • Converted only one pressure into a sack, limited tackle floor or big play upside
  • Pittsburgh matchup is slightly negative matchup for Miami overall

START: Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears, LB34

  • Perfect utilization, 100% snaps on the season, 397 total, 1,100+ pace
  • Targeted 3+ times each game, nice starter for tackles
  • Patriots 6th most rushing attempts this year, great tackles opportunities
  • Bears allowing 63 plays per game, a step up for Patriots average of 59 for increased opportunities

SIT: Cody Barton, Seattle Seahawks, LB23

  • Snap count has continually dropped over the last three weeks, (62%, 77%, 39%!!)
  • His defensive PFF grades have gone up in the reduced role, looks more effective for an NFL defense on reduced utilization
  • Already has limited upside with only 15 pass rush snaps
  • LAC should be a high snap count game for Seattle, but the limited utilization is not safe at all without an injury

START: DeShon Elliott, Detroit Lions, DB28

  • Detroit’s defense is playing the 6th most snaps this year on a per game basis
  • Playing near the perfect snap count, 100% most games this year
  • With injuries in the Detroit secondary, the last 2 weeks have seen Elliott’s snap alignment shift to a near 50% split into the box
  • 10 solo tackles in each of those last 2 weeks
  • Dallas with Dak back should present plenty of defensive opportunities this week

SIT: Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos, DB25

  • Coming off injury had a nice tackle game (6 total) w/ a PD
  • Produced solid tackles but with a 93 snap game, 6.4% tackle efficiency. Low for a DB
  • 18 and 21 passing attempts for the Jets the last two games. Efficient running the ball. Matchup figures to be neutral most of the game
  • Looked solid off his injury, but 100% snap rate is ideal but still a heavy alignment (60% deep safety)
More Analysis by Jake