Key Surprises from the 2020 Season

By Bernard Faller

Updated: November 27th 2020

Each year we find unexpected fantasy performances which alter the landscape of fantasy leagues. This week’s article takes a look at a few of the major surprises from the early 2020 fantasy season, highlighted by some rookie performances.

Buffalo Passing Attack

Many thought Josh Allen would be a quality fantasy quarterback in 2020, largely due to his rushing production. Many believed we would see another leap from Allen in his passing effectiveness. I don’t think many in the industry predicted Allen’s massive jump in quarterback play this year. Allen was a bottom-tier passer by most metrics through his first two seasons. He ranked just 25^th in passing yards per attempt, 24^th in QBR, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ QB30 last year. A big leap would have put him in the middle tier of passers. Allen blew those expectations out of the water so far in 2020.

He ranks 8^th in YPA, 6^th in QBR, and is PFF’s QB8. Maybe more surprising is how Buffalo changed the offense. This was a run-first offense in previous years, sitting among the bottom 3^rd in passing attempts last season while ranking 6^th in rushing attempts. Buffalo currently ranks 14^th this season in passes with the 8^th least carries so far. Allen is on pace for a whopping 26% increase in throws. The offense truly runs through the 3^rd year quarterback. We don’t see this massive of a change in offensive philosophy very often with the same head coach and quarterback. Stefon Diggs benefited from Allen’s emergence (and vice versa) ranking second in targets and receiving yardage. He vastly out-produced his RSO salary in most leagues.

Justin Herbert Crushes from the Start

Many of the thoughts from Buffalo may be copied and pasted here. Not much was expected from the Chargers passing game with Tyrod Taylor or rookie Herbert when he eventually would be put in as the starter. Taylor got hurt early, Los Angeles started Herbert, and the Chargers never looked back. Herbert has been a locked-in rock solid QB1 thanks to tremendous deep-ball success and quality play when pressured. Herbert’s success translated to Keenan Allen who, like Diggs, was coming at a sharp discount in RSO leagues due to the questionable quarterback situation. Allen dominated, like usual, this season as the WR3 with usual sticky hands and jaw-dropping separation skills.

Jonathan Taylor Struggles

Jonathan Taylor was widely expected to post huge fantasy numbers this season once Marlon Mack suffered a season-ending injury early and was the rookie RB1 for many analysts coming into the year. The super-athletic running back crushed Big Ten competition putting massive rushing totals. The expected fantasy points have not materialized so far. Taylor struggled mightily, looking timid and missing open rushing lanes routinely. So what happened to the near sure-loc k running back?

Wisconsin largely utilized I-back/fullback formations with power/gap running concepts giving Taylor fairly easy reads for him to utilize his breakaway speed and nifty feet. Early in the year, Indianapolis used much more offset single-back looks and zone rushing schemes forcing Taylor to make reads and manipulate linebackers in a way he simply was not used to. We are so use to thinking of running back as ready to contribute straight out of college but, with Taylor, we see a player who really misses needed preseason reps. A few positive notes going forward for Taylor is that the Colts utilized more I-back runs last week and Taylor consistently shows off his explosiveness when given chances in the passing game. I definitely view him as a buy for any leagues where people are down on him.

The James Robinson Undrafted Rookie Party

On the other end of the spectrum, Robinson is one of the feel-good fantasy stories of the year. It took a lot of bizarre twists for Robinson to see the field. The Jaguars released former first-round pick Leonard Fournette early in the preseason, Ryquell Armstead was lost for the season due to COVID-related complications, while Devine Ozigbo and passing-down specialist Chris Thompson struggled with injuries. The undrafted free agent assumed the RB1 role for Jacksonville week one and stuck ever since. Robinson posted double-digit PPR fantasy points each week, averaged over a 100 scrimmage yards per game and stayed healthy so far. Fantasy players lucky enough to get Robinson early have a RB1 on their roster for waiver wire costs.

Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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FA Expectancy – Kirk Cousins

By Nick Andrews

Updated: June 8th 2018

Our Free Agent (FA) Expectancy series is back! Throughout the offseason, I will be preparing a collection of articles that will focus on free agents and trade candidates. The articles will discuss the player in question, and what the move does to their value, as well as what their landing spot means for their new and old teams.

Kirk Cousins – QB – Minnesota Vikings

It is still shocking almost three months later that Washington refused to try and win back Kirk Cousins and instead traded for an older and some would call inferior quarterback in Alex Smith. This allowed Cousins to sign freely with the Minnesota Vikings after being courted by several other quarterback-needy teams. The 2017 Vikings were a team that despite the impressive play of Case Keenum, people were suggesting they were a QB away from being a Super Bowl favorite. Because of this, the Vikings were willing to pull out all the stops to acquire Cousins’ services. His fully guaranteed 3-year contract is an important feature for RSO owners to consider in their auctions and suggests that he will be one of the top targets in Superflex leagues. So is Kirk Cousins being overvalued or does his resume warrant the rise that he has experienced this offseason?

Since becoming the full-time starter for Washington in 2015, Kirk Cousins has finished as QB8, QB5, and QB6 while averaging 290 standard QB-scoring fantasy points. He also averaged 567 pass attempts over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, Minnesota has averaged 523 pass attempts over the same time and has had QB finishes of QB23, QB23, and QB14 respectively. This should not be a surprise since drafting Adrian Peterson in 2008 the Vikings have been one of the most run-oriented teams. To be fair their QB room has been lacking in talent save for a quick drive-by of Brett Favre in his 40’s. Either way, they were second in the league last season with over 500 rushing attempts which makes it likely that bringing in Cousins should be a sign of the Vikings looking to improve their passing abilities rather than change their offense to a pass-heavy scheme.

Cousins is not Sam Bradford or Case Keenum. His gunslinger mentality means that he is unlikely to be having 70 percent completion seasons. However, for most leagues, all we care about in fantasy is touchdowns and yards. With Cousins’ aggressiveness, along with the receiving talent around him, there is a greater likelihood of big plays in Minnesota looking ahead to 2018.

Effecting the Offense

The Vikings offense uses only a handful of receiving options in the passing game which makes knowing who to target in fantasy much easier. Between Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, and Jerick McKinnon these four receivers earned over 73 percent of the targets and 88 percent of touchdowns in 2017. Expecting things to stay the status quo these four receivers (swapping Dalvin Cook for McKinnon) should yield a similar collective target share in 2018. It will also be likely that Thielen will remain the target leader as Cousins’ previous slot receiver, Jamison Crowder, was his highest targeted option in Washington last season. Therefore, while Diggs receives a lot of the credit for being the name brand choice of Viking WRs if you can acquire Thielen for a reasonable fee he may once again still be an undervalued WR in fantasy.

The other Viking that should be a must acquire is Dalvin Cook. As previously mentioned Jerick McKinnon had almost 70 targets last season but split carries with Latavius Murray after Cook was injured. Cook averaged 4 targets per game while also averaging 18.5 carries which shows that the coaching staff was ready to roll with him right away as their main backfield option. With McKinnon gone the Vikings do not have a consistent receiving back outside of Cook which should only increase his role in the passing game moving forward. Cook’s recovery throughout the offseason will be one to monitor but if he is healthy he has the potential to be a top 5 running back in PPR this season.

Changes in the Capital

It is crazy to realize that Washington is only two years removed from having multiple 1,000-yard receivers (Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson) and a quarterback who almost threw for 5,000 yards. Now, none of these three players are on the team. I guess that’s the ever-changing landscape of the NFL. As previously mentioned Washington did not do any favors in trying to retain Kirk Cousins’ services and as a final one-finger salute they traded for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith before Cousins was even officially off the roster. I have nothing against Alex Smith and think that he has been one of the more underrated quarterbacks since being considered a bust after his early years in San Francisco. However, Washington is acquiring a 34-year-old quarterback who is coming off his one elite statistical season and had a tremendous group of players to support him. In D.C. Smith doesn’t have the same level of talent around him as he did in KC. Jordan Reed is probably his best option and he is closer to being forced into retirement with each snap he plays due to his extensive list of injuries. All in all, Smith will have his work cut out for him to make people believe that he was the reason for his own stats last season.

The team did acquire rookie running back Derrius Guice in the second round who projects to be an early down runner which along with sophomore runner Samaje Perine will give Smith a strong running game behind him. Chris Thompson, who is returning from his own season-ending injury will also help to alleviate pressure by being a safety blanket satellite back. It is unlikely that Smith will have over 4,000 yards again this season but because of his play style, there should be few turnovers to negatively affect the offense. So while good for winning games it doesn’t translate to much fantasy value. Most of Washington’s passing options should be valued as at best bye week fillers until we see if one player can become a focal point of the offense.

Make sure to continue to read more Free Agency Expectancy articles throughout the offseason to be prepared for your summer Auctions. Have a player that you want me to evaluate? Leave me a message on Twitter @NickAndrews_RSO.

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Stock Watch

By Nick Andrews

Updated: October 6th 2016

With three weeks of football to use as a measuring stick trends are immerging and we can start to see who the real fantasy stars for 2016 might be. This is also the ideal time to talk trades since teams that are 0-3 might be ready to sell already and teams that are 3-0 might be more inclined to drop their picks on players for today. I am going to look at players to try and buy, or sell, based on how the community seems to be viewing their value. Players will fall into four categories: buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two seem rather obvious but “Buy High” and “Sell Low” seem counterintuitive. My logic is this, if a player has shown you enough to warrant the price then you should buy now before they are untouchable. Likewise, if a player seems to be trending down but still has brand value to his name it might be time to get something before they become nothing. Alright now that we have the definitions laid out let’s start some trade talks.

BUY LOW, Golden Tate

Goodbye Calvin Johnson, hello…. Marvin Jones? When Megatron left the Motor City people immediately saw this as tremendous value for Golden Tate. Instead, Marvin Jones has dominated the Lions’ share of targets (pun intended) and is coming off of a 200-yard receiving performance in week 3. Still, the Lions have no workhorse in the running game and continue to throw the ball at a considerably high rate (120 attempts in 3 games). With games against Chicago, Washington, Jacksonville and New Orleans still on the schedule, I can see Tate being a great complimentary piece to have for the second half of the season.

BUY LOW, Cole Beasley

Dak Prescott likes to check it down, A LOT! While both he and Tony Romo have used the running game to set up the pass, Romo would often try to push the ball deep downfield to Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams. Instead, Prescott prefers the death by a thousand papercuts approach which has greatly increased Beasley’s role this season. Playing a similar role to Julian Edelman in New England, Beasley looks like a lock to secure 4-7 passes coming across the field and on short curls and screens each game. His floor is much higher than most WR3s, and he’s still underutilized (started in <28% of leagues) in fantasy. He is likely on just a one-year deal in most leagues, but depending on your situation at WR I could see him being available for just a low draft pick or an underperforming WR3.

SELL HIGH, Todd Gurley

I was originally going to write about LeGarette Blount here, but every other site has been writing up a storm about his dropping value once Tom Brady returns in week 5. Instead, I wanted to create some controversy by saying that you should be selling Todd Gurley. Yes, Gurley is considered to be one of the top dynasty assets today, and yes I know there is no concern about injuries or timeshares in Los Angeles. However, with coach Jeff Fisher signing a new three-year extension he appears to be content with putting out a mediocre roster week-after-week and season-after-season. What are the chances that the offense becomes any more effective in the next year or two? Taking into account that the team has games against Carolina, New York Jets and Giants, New England, and Seattle still remaining this season I don’t see his opportunities getting much better in 2016. Many owners likely have Gurley on a low rookie contract for either two or three years which may make it hard for you to swallow moving him. If however you are offered a 2017 1^st and either another upstart RB or a sturdy WR you would likely have to seriously consider it.

SELL HIGH, Jets Skilled Players

After a monster week 2 that saw the Jets have 3 touchdowns from Matt Forte and 100 yards for Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker week 3 saw the team turn the ball over 8(!) times against the Chiefs. Both receivers also came out of the game less than 100% healthy. These Jet players have currently enjoyed strong value and could even be great ancillary pieces on a championship team this year. But with the workload that Forte has earned early this season, I find it hard to believe he will stay healthy come playoff time. Same goes for the oft-injured Marshall who was already questionable coming into the game this past week. Their value will never be higher than it is currently, and you can probably move any of them for a late first or early second in the current market.

BUY HIGH, Mike Evans

Remember back in 2014 when it was debatable whether Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans should be the 1.01 in rookie drafts? A lot has changed in just two years and the values of these two have changed quite a bit. Evans has been stellar this season and has established a real connection with second-year quarterback Jameis Winston. His 17 targets in week 3 are mind blowing, and I don’t really see him slowing down anytime soon. It will cost you at least a first round pick to acquire him, but if you have a chance to acquire him this season he’s going to be great. Two matchups in the playoffs against the Saints make him worth every penny.

BUY HIGH, Stefon Diggs

Laquon who? Stefon Diggs has been a beast for the Vikings the first three weeks of 2016. With concerns about him being a Charles Johnson 2.0, his value was at best lukewarm during the offseason. Currently, he has 47% of the receiving yards in Minnesota’s pass attack. Norv Turner will likely continue to feed his best player. From his fast start to the season there won’t be too much concern about him being a bust, and many of his owners won’t be actively shopping Diggs now. Still, it’s every fantasy player’s duty to at least see what the asking price is, and if it’s reasonable he’s worth it.

SELL LOW, John Brown

Do not be fooled by the last two weeks’ stat line. Brown only played 57% of the team’s snaps and benefited greatly from Palmer throwing 50(!) passes in Buffalo. He then benefited again from a favorable game script that saw the Cardinals down for most of their week 4 game against LA. He still is playing behind Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd and has even seen Jaron Brown take away from his time on the field. With so many mouths to feed (including David Johnson out of the backfield) it will be difficult to rely week to week on Brown. If any team is hurting at their WR I would look to move him their way for any other WR3 at this point.

SELL LOW, Randall Cobb

Jordy is back! Rodgers is moving the ball again, but Cobb is still lacking from what you would expect from a reliable WR2. PPR scores of 13, 9, and 4 are leaving a sour taste in fantasy owner’s mouths. Unless you purchased him recently, one would assume that he’s being paid pretty handsomely. He still has great name value and the offense he plays in offers the opportunity to have solid fantasy weeks. However, if I had the choice between Cobb and other receivers such as Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders or Doug Baldwin I would be moving him without looking back.

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Fantasy Impact Sam Bradford Trade

By Dave Sanders

Updated: October 7th 2016

In a trade that changes the direction of two NFL franchises, the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings agreed to a blockbuster deal on the morning of Saturday, September 3rd. It had been clear for months that Sam Bradford‘s days in Philadelphia were numbered, but there wasn’t a market for him after QB-needy teams made other plans during the 2016 NFL Draft. That all changed when the Vikings promising QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a devastating injury that will cause him to miss at least the 2016 season. Acquiring Bradford keeps Minnesota’s 2016 hopes alive as they fancy themselves a Super Bowl competitor. This move also clears the way for Philadelphia to hand the reigns over to rookie QB Carson Wentz.

With these two teams changing starting quarterbacks, the fantasy values of other skill position players in each offense will be impacted.

Let’s start with the Eagles…

Carson Wentz slots in as my #21 QB in redraft leagues. His ability to extend plays in the pocket and execute read-option plays should make him relevant during his rookie a season as a possible streamer. Long-term, he’s my favorite quarterback of the 2016 class and seems to be way ahead of Rams #1 overall pick Jared Goff.
The Eagles running game, and most importantly Ryan Mathews, should be largely unaffected by this move. I’m very high on Mathews in 2016 as he’s my #12 RB in redraft. He should see plenty of carries behind the 7th best offensive line according to Pro Football Focus.
Jordan Matthews & Dorial Green-Beckham are the only receivers worth considering in fantasy. I’m lower on Matthews than most, but can’t deny that he’ll have plenty of opportunities. DGB could be a contributor as a reserve wide receiver in fantasy that fills in during bye weeks and gives you a chance at a TD every week. After a poor preseason, Nelson Agholor should be left on waivers in all but the deepest of leagues. Contrary to the popular narrative, tight ends actually do not see an increased target share with rookie QBs according to an excellent study by TJ Hernandez. That said, Zach Ertz remains a top 8 TE in 2016.

Moving on to the Vikings…

Sam Bradford joins a Minnesota Vikings team that features better skill position talent than the Eagles. His value receives a slight boost from this trade, but he’s still not a top 20 QB in 2016.
Adrian Peterson‘s value returned to where it was several weeks ago, before the injury to Bridgewater. I’m concerned about his age and lack of involvement on 3rd downs. I’d rather be out one year too early than one year too late so he won’t be on any of my rosters this year. If you’re more optimistic, this trade should benefit Peterson as he would have likely seen many more eight man boxes if Shaun Hill was the QB.
Vikings pass catchers could be a bit more productive with Bradford than they may have even been with Bridgewater. Let’s not forget that Bradford finished 2015 playing his best football in a long time, while Bridgewater has only thrown for 14 passing touchdowns in each of the last two years. In redraft, Stefon Diggs is the only WR worth rostering. He’s my #38 wide receiver. Laquon Treadwell projects to be better in the long run, but it may be some time before he contributes in a meaningful way.

While this trade doesn’t have major fantasy implications, fantasy leagues are often won by the smallest of margins. Garnering a very slight edge in trades and free agent acquisitions repeatedly is how great teams are built and RSO dynasties are formed.

Let me know how you think the Bradford trade will impact the Eagles and Vikings by reaching out to me on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO!

Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999. Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers keeper and dynasty leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each. Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO

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