IDP Start/Sit: Week 1

Updated: September 7th 2023

Welcome back, folks! It is time to kick off the 2023 NFL and fantasy season and I can’t think of a better way to do it than to talk Start and Sit options for some of our favorite IDPs. For some context for our newer readers, I am reviewing weekly rankings from Jase Abbey over at TheIDPShow.com and looking for players in that 15-40 range that we should have some greater confidence in (Start) or someone whom we have a little more concern about their output this week (Sit). These aren’t hard and fast recommendations, but hopefully, a great way for you to more thoroughly assess your lineups each week and for the season. Let’s get to it.

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans, DL27 (Edge 21)

The talent and draft capital for Will Anderson are undeniable. And the matchup against a strong Baltimore Ravens might not be our normal target for an edge rusher matchup. However, when looking for better values for our edge rushers, we love QBs who like to hold on to the ball and Lamar Jackson is one of the best at that. His time to throw last year was second only to Justin Fields and in his 378 dropbacks, teams converted 27 sacks in those dropbacks (7.14%). In the last two years, that conversion rate is at 7.6%. Now the Ravens are set to run more offensive, and specifically, pass plays, we have a floor of 2.5 – 3 sacks given up for the Ravens.

Who better to capitalize on a QB holding on to the ball too long and moving around the pocket, than an edge rusher with the quickness and lateral agility to bring him down behind the line? While he likely won’t play Maxx Crosby volume snaps, Anderson projects as the leader rusher and should see a healthy number of snaps in a shallower edge room. Great volume play, a strong sack upside, Will Anderson is closer to a high-end edge 1 and DL2 for me this week.

SIT: Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions, DL9 (Edge 9)

I love Aidan Hutchinson’s year 2 growth and have plenty of him in my lineups. However, Patrick Mahomes is one of the least sacked QBs over the last 3 years. In fact only 76 times over 2,110 dropbacks for a sack rate of only 3.6%. The game should have an above-average number of plays ran and still some good opportunity based on plays and snaps, but the sack ceiling should be lowered for this matchup.

Hutchinson showed he can make plays in other aspects of the game last year with 3 interceptions, but also had a limited tackle floor with 39 combined tackles. He will likely have an exciting year 2 in 2023, but his campaign is likely to get off to a rocky start. I view Hutchinson more as a mid-to-low end DL2.

START: Kaden Elliss, Atlanta Falcons, LB46

If you have heard me at any point this offseason, you have likely heard me talk about my excitement for Kaden Elliss. There is the contract this offseason, 3 years and $21.5 million. The familiarity with the defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, who was his former DC for the last few years in New Orleans. The strong pass-rush production in his half-season role when Pete Werner was injured. Wearing the green dot this preseason. Needless to say, I am excited to see what Elliss can do with a full-time role.

Week 1, the Falcons and Elliss take on the Panthers. The Panthers have an average, at best, offensive line and have struggled this preseason. Atlanta has struggled to generate a consistent pass rush the last several years, Elliss could be primed for good volume, even in a lower projected matchup with a nice ceiling play too. This combination makes Elliss a high-end LB3 with an upside for even more.

SIT: Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders, LB28

Jamin Davis’s offseason was a bit of a roller coaster. The ups of becoming the clear LB1 for the Commanders and the potential leader of this defense. Then his subsequent off-the-field issues with his reckless driving case and the potential impact to his 2023 season. His case was recently slated for March 2024 and the NFL generally doesn’t pursue until court cases are resolved.

Now coming into week 1, he gets a matchup against the the Arizona Cardinals with the lowest over/under of the week, 38.5. An implied point total of 16 for the Cardinals doesn’t bode well for the offense staying on the field and the Commanders and Jamin Davis making a lot of plays. He has the talent to deliver an LB2 finish this week, but with a weaker floor this week, I am fading Jamin as a low-end LB3.

START: Jayron Kearse, Dallas Cowboys, DB27 (Safety 27)

Dan Quinn and this Cowboys defense have preferred to run three safeties (Kearse, Donovan Wilson, Malik Hooker) with one of them aligning more closely to the line of scrimmage. Kearse has been an IDP beneficiary and the alignment has helped a ton. He spent 74.11% of his snaps last season in either the DL, Box, or Slot alignments. Now with Wilson potentially out for week 1, Kearse should have a strong hold of the valuable snaps.

The New York Giants matchup projects to yield an above-average amount of opportunities for the Dallas Cowboys defense and with a path with reduced resistance for Kearse with Wilson on the shelf for week 1, Kearse has a likely outcome as a midrange DB2 this week.

SIT: Jeremy Chinn, Carolina Panthers, DB22 (Safety 22)

Jeremy Chinn has been an IDP darling since exploding on the scene is rookie year in 2020. This season though, the final year of his rookie contract, Chinn is in a precarious situation with incumbent safety, Xavier Woods who played over 1,000 snaps the last two season and big free agent signing, Vonn Bell. Bell has played over 1,000 snaps the last three seasons. Woods and Bell project to the be primary safeties while Chinn is likely heavily utilized in the slot defender role. Normally slot usage isn’t a death knell for IDP, however, if it is limited and the only role, that is not ideal. And this is what we saw in Chinn’s utilization this preseason.

Pair this with a poor passing performance opponent in the Atlanta Falcons, Chinn’s potential reduced usage, and the crowded safety room, Chinn doesn’t feel like a safe play for me and I would have him as a low-end DB3.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

Updated: September 24th 2022

Welcome to week 3! Another fun week of fantasy football, but more fun if you are living that IDP fantasy life! One more week of data, a week to help establish real/true trends, and more film to interpret for our next set of decisions. As always, a reminder of what this article is here for,is to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of their IDP position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a start-able asset for each given week (or maybe more!). The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements. Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

As a quick refresher too, here were week two’s recommendations and how the “advice” went. Happy with my all sits, the Titans defense disappointed for me this week. Expected greater work from the key players in that front 7.
DL:
Start: Jeffery Simmons (1 PD)


Sit: Khalil Mack (.5 sack, 1 solo, 1 assist)


LB:

Start: David Long Jr. (1 solo, 1 assist)

Sit (Sell): Kamu Grugier-Hill (3 solo, 2 assist)

 

DB:
Start: Kyler Gordon (3 solos, 3 assist, 1 PD)

Sit: Jevon Holland (2 solos, 8 return yards)

 

START: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs, DL33

The new look Kansas City Chiefs are looking strong at 2-0 and a large part of this is thanks to the play of their defense as well. And at the core of the front 7 is Chris Jones, delivering strong performances for his team and for IDP fantasy. As such, he is a strong value start at DL33 from Fantasy Pros IDP week 3 rankings. He is checking those preliminary boxes for us in utilization (70%+ snap count through 2 weeks) and showing a top-end PFF pass-rush grade of 90+ as well.

What does this mean for week 3’s matchup? The Chiefs travel to Indianapolis and they struggled against a decent unit last week in the Jaguars and the Colts defense has looked weak so far this year and the Chiefs offense could turn this into a negative game script very quickly. Which means this front 7 can really pin its ears back and get after a very immobile Matt Ryan. Pair this with a Colts offensive line that has been bottom half of the league so far this year with Jones’ 17% pressure rate, we have a very strong path for Jones to continue adding pressure and likely converting a sack or two!

Jones is an easy DL2 this week and a must start in DT required leagues.

SIT: Marcus Davenport, New Orleans Saints, DL23

Marcus Davenport came on strong at the end of 2021 and was really starting to get people to believe in his 1st round draft capital and what he could be for the Saints as a premier edge rusher as Cameron Jordan is reaching the end of his career. However, his start to this season has been rather pedestrian, at best. Davenport has had slightly above average snap counts at around 60% of his snaps but he has delivered little excitement in the pass-rush department with a 6% pressure rate! He would need to be converting almost every pressure at that rate to be delivering consistent IDP value.

With a rough start, week 3 brings in the Carolina Panthers and some would say this would be the salve to what ails Davenport. However, I am predicting a shift in the Panthers focus and getting CMC more involved as he has shown the ability to be involved and gain further confidence in his ability to stay on the field. Along with the fact that many believe Matt Rhule is playing for his job at this point, and CMC sounds like a better bet than Baker Mayfield, in one man’s humble opinion. And if this is the case, Davenport has struggled to deliver in the run game as well this year, leading to just an overall disappointing IDP week.

START: Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers, LB23

Fred Warner has been an IDP stalwart for the last 4 seasons since coming into the league. Now, after two slow weeks to start his 2022 campaign, consensus ranks has him at LB23 this week! The 49ers have run a crazy low number of plays on defense at 53.5 per game over the last two weeks. Those are numbers that just aren’t realistic to last over the entirety of the season. On a 17 game pace, that would leave him almost 100 snaps lower than some of his 16 game seasons in terms of total snaps played. He has had some below average tackle efficiency which can be expected to happen at times, so some positive regression there, with increased overall snaps means stronger numbers are very likely in the future for Warner.

The Broncos have average around 65 snaps per game as an offense as well, so this should be a return to the norm for the 49ers defense and Warner is an asset who has proven year in and year out that he can deliver, just look at this IDP resume:

  • 79+ solo tackles every year
  • 115+ total tackles every year
  • 22+ TFLs over the last 4 years
  • 12 combined FF/FR over the last 4 years

All this to say, if anyone is out on Warner, buy the dip and ride the wave of success that should follow shortly after.

SIT: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins, LB27

Jerome Baker is getting full 100% snap count which is not always easy to find with any LB, so if he is getting that kind of usage, why would we want to be looking at sitting him them? Alignment. Week 1 he spent about 17% of his snaps on the defensive line rushing the passer and in week 2, that jumped way up to 53%. This utilization is a scary trend for Baker and if it continues or stays anywhere near that 50%. This has already shown up in his first two weeks performance with 7 total tackles between both and also only delivered 1 total pressure with all these pass rush attempts. This is a very-low 6% pressure rate and he hasn’t converted anything into further IDP production either.

Now for week 3, we see the Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills and this is not the team a pass rushing LB is going to right their ship. Baker might correct course here soon, but this week is not the one to do. With only 3 sacks allowed in the first two games, that is a big ask for Baker to be the one to come up with it with previous lack of success.

START: Terrell Edmunds, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB34

Terrell Edmunds is easily overshadowed by the other safety in Pittsburgh in Minkah Fitzpatrick. Minkah is out there breaking all logic in how deep safeties have historically produced IDP with crazy tackle numbers giving safe weekly floors with high-level play-making that delivers week winning performances. While all this is happening, Edmunds is quietly delivering success while getting the ideal utilization for a safety. He has gotten 100% of the defensive snaps while also playing 58% of his snaps inside the sweet spot!!!

With a tough divisional matchup in the Cleveland Browns which have been low-scoring games, and you have seen Cleveland continue to rely on their running game. With that consideration, these sweet spot snaps will become even more valuable. Edmunds is a strong DB2 this week and might be a candidate to watch for season-long  value as well.

SIT: Jonathan Owners, Houston Texans, DB26

Jonathan Owners has been a pleasant surprise to start this season. However, I am guessing most people have not played him much this season unless in a super deep league. He has put up an astounding 25 tackles through the first two games as well as a pass defensed. This is super impressive and why wouldn’t we want this in our lineup?!? Because he has played a ludicrous 81 snaps per game so far this year! OK, well, the Texans defense stinks, right? So they will keep getting more snaps, right? Enter the Chicago Bears. They have thrown 28 passes through 2 games this year and run the 2nd least amount of plays in 97 total plays.

Something has to give in this situation, and Jonathan Owens has played solidly with PFF grades around 63 for the season, but if I had to pick a side, I would lean away from the lack of previous production from Owens and the inflated opportunities about to come crashing back down this week against the Bears.

More Analysis by Jake

Divisional Weekend Predictions

Updated: July 16th 2017

Well, last week went pretty much as the experts expected with all favorites/home teams prevailing, and only the Giants/Packers game was even close, which is really funny to type since it ended up being the largest margin of victory of any of the games with the Packers winning by 25. I have a feeling this week is going to be much different with significantly closer games save the Texans-Pats game, which is shaping up to be a pre-season warm-up game for New England ahead of the AFC Championship game next week. The RSO Writers have dissected each game again this week below, but in case you are tracking at home, here are the results of each writer’s picks from last week:

  1. Stephen Wendell: 3-1 ML & 3-1 ATS
  2. Matt Papson: 3-1 ML & 2-2 ATS
  3. Kyle English: 3-1 ML & 1-3 ATS
  4. Robert Cowper: 2-2 ML & 1-3 ATS
  5. Matt Goodwin: 4-0 ML & 2-1-1 ATS
  6. Nick Andrews: 3-1 ML & 3-1 ATS
  7. Dave Sanders: 3-1 ML & 3-1 ATS
  8. Bernard Faller: 4-0 ML & 1-2-1 ATS
  9. Luke O’Connell: 3-1 ML & 3-1 ATS

A quick summary of the picks for this week in case you don’t want to read each writer’s analysis…but, just as last week, you should because there are some great nuggets of information down there:

  1. Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (Line ATL -5): ML – 4 SEA & 5 ATL // ATS – 6 SEA & 3 ATL
  2. Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (Line NE -15): ML – 0 HOU & 9 NE // ATS – 1 HOU & 8 NE
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (Line KC -1.5): ML – 4 PIT & 5 KC // ATS – 5 PIT & 4 NE
  4. Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (Line DAL -4.5): ML – GB 7 & DAL 2 // ATS – 8 GB & 1 DAL

#3 Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) @ #2 Atlanta Falcons (11-5) [Line: Atlanta -5]

Stephen Wendell: Matty Ice has had another great year and when clicking, the Falcons’ offense is explosive. Seattle looked as solid as ever last week against the Lions, and one should never discount their winning experience this time of the year. This is a rematch of the 2012 Divisional Round game between these two teams that ended with a game winning FG by Matt Bryant…if you remember, the Falcons came out of the gates strong and lost the lead only to win on the last second kick by Bryant. I think Carroll will have his troops ready early and not let the game get away from them, and ultimately, I think Atlanta’s questionable defense lets them down and the Hawks prevail.  Projected Score: Seahawks 28 – Falcons 24.

Matt Papson: I can’t believe the Seahawks are +5 point underdogs. The NFC isn’t particularly strong this year, and this might be as good an opportunity as Matt Ryan gets in his career to win it all. But, even with the Seahawks traveling across the country, I see them showing up in a big way. I’m expecting Seattle to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for the third time in four years.  Projected Score: Seahawks 31 – Falcons 28.

Kyle English:  Seahawks got the job done at home against the Lions, but face a much tougher test against the Falcons in Atlanta.  The Falcons do a lot of damage through the air, and against the Seahawks banged up secondary they could have plenty of success.  The Seahawks won their regular season match-up back in week 6 at home 26-24, but I think the Falcons get their revenge.  Projected Score: Falcons 31 – Seahawks 24.

Robert Cowper: I know that the Falcons come into this game at 11-5 and with Matt Ryan as a viable MVP candidate but I’m just not buying it.  These two teams, and quarterbacks, matched up after the 2012 season in a similar situation: Seahawks coming off a double-digit Wildcard round win while the Falcons were sitting idle with a bye.  The Falcons got out to a 20-0 lead at halftime only to see the Seahawks storm back but ultimately come up short; the Falcons kicked a FG with 0:08 left to win 30-28.  Wilson was a rookie then and is now an experienced Super Bowl winning QB, he’s left Ryan in the dust and I expect the Seahawks to do the same to the Falcons. Projected Score: Seahawks 23 – Falcons 15.

Matt Goodwin: As I wrote in this article, the way to beat the Seahawks defense these days is to attack them deep. The Lions didn’t take any shots, but I’m sure Kyle Shanahan’s high-powered Falcons offense will be in attack mode from the opening play (assuming that his job interviews were not a distraction-I hate that playoff coaches have to take time away to interview and wish the NFL would regulate a process to fix this). Richard Sherman showed no ability to cover Julio Jones in the first matchup (seven catches for 139 yards and a touchdown on nine targets) and they now have big play receiver Taylor Gabriel to challenge the Seahawks safeties deep. I liked how the Seahawks fed Thomas Rawls against the Lions, all while not using a single read-option play with Russell Wilson. To keep the ball away from the Falcons, the ‘Hawks will have to rely again on the run game, but this time with Wilson as well. They have fared very poorly on the road this season (3-4-1) with their only quality win being over the New England Patriots. Atlanta has just too much on offense (including in the backfield) and enough opportunistic playmakers on defense to rattle the Seahawks offensive line. Projected Score: Falcons 31 – Seahawks 20.

Nick Andrews: One bird is getting kicked out of the nest and it might not be the one you expect. While Seattle looked tremendous in their Wildcard game Matt Ryan and Co. are not the cowardly Lions. If it wasn’t for a questionable no call pass interference in their week 6 game the Falcons could already have one victory over the Seahawks this season. Not having to worry about the 12th man and playing on the fast track should be the right combination for the Falcons to advance to the NFC Championship game as it was in 2012. Projected Score: Falcons 31 – Seahawks 27.

Dave Sanders: The Divisional Round kicks-off with a really intriguing match-up in the Georgia Dome.  Though Seattle’s defense held the Lions without a touchdown last week, I wouldn’t expect that to continue against the Falcons as Atlanta finished the season ranked No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA.  Scoring points shouldn’t be a problem for Atlanta.  Limiting Seattle, without Desmond Trufant, may be an issue. Trufant frequently lined up opposite of Baldwin during their regular season meeting, limiting Baldwin to 31 yards on 4 receptions.  Thomas Rawls regained 2015 form a week ago vs. the Lions, rushing for 161 yards on 27 carries.  If Seattle’s running game can continue to be productive in Atlanta, certainly no easy task, I’d expect the Seahawks to top the Falcons in what could be a thrilling final game in the Georgia Dome. Projected Score: Seahawks 34 – Falcons 31.  

Bernard Faller: Atlanta scored a ridiculous 540 points this season, almost 100 more than 2nd highest scorer New England, led by MVP favorite Matt Ryan. The Falcons run game provides nice balance to the passing game with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Seattle won the first matchup at home 26-24. I expect the Falcons to even the season series in Atlanta against a beat up Seattle team. Projected Score: Falcons 31 – Seahawks 24.

Luke O’Connell: What have we here? Two important facts heading into this game:  Pro Football Focus dropped a scathing last place finish on the Seahawks offensive line, and the performance of the Seahawks defense in the second half of the season showed a markedly better team against the run than the pass as the pass rushing numbers declined, the tackles for loss improved nearly 2 per game:

Screen Shot 2017-01-12 at 12.44.17 PM

This funhouse mirror into Seattle’s defensive prowess starts piling a mound of chips on Matt Ryan’s shoulders.  Carroll’s company should be able to diminish Freeman and Coleman.   The Falcon QB was one missed defensive pass interference call away from beating Seattle in the last contest.  It will be up to him to dig deeper than his last performance against the Seahawks where he threw for three touchdowns, but posted his lowest depth of target all year apart from the Cardinals tilt. RSO Angle:  With everything on the line watch carry/target distribution in the Falcon backfield and target distribution among Seahawk pass catchers.  Paul Richardson may make himself fantasy relevant, or be a highlight-reel hero that you can force another owner to burn salary on.  Projected Score: Falcons 17- Seahawks 13. 

#4 Houston Texans (9-7) @ #1 New England Patriots (14-2) [Line: New England -15]

Stephen Wendell: Really not much to say here. Yes, Houston has a great defense, but they will miss J.J. Watt in this game because it takes a phenomenal defense working at 100% of its potential to stop Mr. Brady and Mr. Belichick in January in Foxboro. Pats win big en route to an AFC Championship showdown with Big Ben and the Steelers for the third time. Projected Score: Patriots 28 – Texans 12.

Matt Papson: Even if the Texans defense is able to keep the Patriots offense in check, I can’t see the Texans moving the ball effectively against the Patriots. I’m rolling with the underdogs in the NFC…but you won’t see me out on a limb in this one, which is the largest spread in a playoff game since 1999 (According to Pro Football Reference). Projected Score: Patriots 28 – Texans 10. 

Kyle English: We all know what happens here.  The Pats blew them out in Week 3 27-0 and nothing has changed since then. Patriots win big! Projected Score: Patriots 31 – Texans 6.

Robert Cowper: This game will be the proverbial train wreck that you can’t look away from.  The spread is huge but may not be big enough.  Picking the Patriots to win is no “prediction” it’s more like a foregone conclusion.  Instead, I’ll make this prediction: Jimmy Garoppolo gets 6+ passing attempts.  I think it will be enough of a blowout to pull Brady and Belichick will want to remind teams like the Cleveland Browns why they should be making trade offers for him. Projected Score: Patriots 38 – Texans 19.

Matt Goodwin: Facing Tom Brady on the road instead of Connor Cook at home. The folks in Vegas may be generous with a 16 point spread in this game because the Texans couldn’t beat the Patriots when Jacoby Brissett was under center. To me, the only interesting sidebar in this game is whether the Patriots get their points in the passing game or the run game. I expect LeGarrette Blount to score at least once, and probably twice and am guessing that Brock Osweiler throws a pick-six in this game as well. Projected Score: Patriots 38 – Texans 16.

Nick Andrews: The first betting line I saw on twitter had this game at Patriots -17. Talk about disrespecting a team that won a playoff game and has been a consistent tenant of the tournament over the last half decade. Okay have I given them enough credit to not come off as snide? Good. Yes, the defense has been one of the best in recent weeks but they don’t have enough pieces to stop everything that Belichick-McDaniels-Brady can throw at them. There will be constant double teams and chips on Clowney and the Pats defense will hold them below average offense to minimal points. The Texans only chance is to be creative with their play calling and aggressive with every opportunity they get over midfield. Projected Score: Patriots 34 – Texans 14.

Dave Sanders: Did anyone enjoy last weekend more than Brock Osweiler?  It was an impressive performance that, frankly, I didn’t see coming.  With that said, one solid outing doesn’t erase a disappointing season that including a benching in favor of Tom Savage.  The Texans are more than two touchdown dogs heading to Foxborough in what should be the ugliest game of the weekend.  If you aren’t able to be locked into EVERY game this weekend, do what you can to make this the game you skip.  From the Patriots side, the only question is at what point will the Patriots rest Tom Brady. Bet on Jimmy Garoppolo handling most of the 4th quarter. Projected Score: Patriots 38 – Texans 17.

Bernard Faller: This might be the largest contrast in quarterback play ever to appear in a divisional playoff game with future Hall of Famer Tom Brady and 2016’s worst QB Brock Osweiler. New England won easily in the first matchup with a 3rd string quarterback shutting out the Texans 27-0. Look for more of the same here. Projected Score: Patriots 31 – Texans 10.

Luke O’Connell: Bill O’Brien has exactly one shot in this game.  He has to rain down wrath upon Brady to an uncivil degree, blitzes and inside pressure, violence to a degree that is uncomfortable to watch.   It is hard conceive of a world in which Brady finishes the game and loses to Brock Osweiler.   Men like Jadaveon Clowney get paid to live in the minds of even great ones like Brady, but short of a nationwide-panic inducing Clowney sighting, this should play out comfortably for Patriot nation.  Projected Score: Patriots 30-Texans 17.

#3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) @ #2 Kansas City Chiefs  [Line: Kansas City -1.5]

Stephen Wendell: I love the three Bs playing together. They look incredible and are certainly built to play in all types of weather. I don’t think they will be as affected by the elements as others have been traveling to Arrowhead, and ultimately, despite the inspired play by the Chiefs this year and the exciting emergence of Tyreek Hill as a TD threat every time he touches the football, I think the Steelers find a way to win a really tough, hard-fought road playoff game. Projected Score: Steelers 24 – Chiefs 21. 

Matt Papson: The Chiefs just seem to find a way to win. The Chiefs home field advantage is one of the most underrated in sports. I expect this game to be very, very close, but I’m rooting for Big Red, so I give the Chiefs the edge. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Steelers blew out the Chiefs, either.  Projected Score: Chiefs 28 – Steelers 27.

Kyle English: The Chiefs were the first ones to face Bell this season in Pittsburgh back in week 4, and the Steelers promptly destroyed the Chiefs 43-14.  Now they will be playing in Arrowhead with that raucous crowd behind their Chiefs.  I think they make a difference…but not enough of one.  The three headed monster of Big Ben, Bell, and Brown are just playing too well right now. Steelers win a close one. Projected Score: Steelers 27 – Dolphins 23. 

Robert Cowper: I went against the Steelers last week and won’t make that mistake again.  I’m a Le’veon Bell owner in two leagues so I should not have been surprised by his output against the Dolphins but I was.  31 touches, 174 yards, 2 TDs.  The Chiefs are #21 in yards allowed per rush and #26 in total rushing yards, both worse than Miami.  It should be another heavy dose of Bell, especially if Roethlisberger is at all hobbled by his injury.  I am looking forward to see how the Chiefs deploy Tyreek Hill after having two weeks to game plan.  He’s a dynamic, multi-faceted player and a potential game breaker on any play (3 rushing TDs, 6 receiving TDs, 2 punt return TDs and 1 kickoff return TD). Projected Score: Steelers 17 – Chiefs 14.

Matt Goodwin: This is a rematch of an early season matchup where the Steelers obliterated the Chiefs at Heinz Field. We as fantasy owners all know the narrative of Ben Roethlisberger’s home vs. road splits and add in an ankle injury and this looks like some potential questionable weather may be sprinkled in. I feel this is a grind it out type game where Kansas City’s solid defense holds Le’Veon Bell in check enough to win this game closely. Projected Score: Chiefs 16 – Steelers 13.

Nick Andrews: Strength on strength in this matchup with a lot of focus being on the Killers B’s of Pittsburgh. But this game is in KC and the narrative of Roethlisberger’s home/road split is well documented. The Chiefs offense has also been more of a threat with the emergence of Tyreek Hill. Expect this one to be a classic AFC smash mouth game. It’ll be cold, it’ll be low(er) scoring and it will likely come down to the wire. Maybe a late turnover decides the game? Projected Score: Chiefs 24 – Steelers 21.

Dave Sanders: You’re fooling yourself if you believe that their Week 4 meeting offers any predictive value this week.  In early October, the Chiefs caught the Steelers at home, coming off an embarrassing 31 point loss to the Eagles led by rookie QB Carson Wentz.  The situation is quite different this time around as Pittsburgh has to travel to Kansas City to take on Andy Reid’s team refresh off a first-round bye.  As we all know by know, Ben Roethlisberger’s home/road splits are alarming to say the least.  While I believe Le’Veon Bell to be the best running back in the league, Pittsburgh will need an above average game from Roethlisberger to pull off the upset at Arrowhead.  Let’s not forget that Kansas City finished the season strong winning 10 of their last 12 games.  At home and led by their strong defense, I believe Kansas City will be able to score points to hold off Pittsburgh. Projected Score: Chiefs 21 – Steelers 17.

Bernard Faller: Pittsburgh absolutely demolished the Chiefs 43-14 in the first game between these two on the strength of five touchdown passes from Ben Roethlisburger. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, this game is in Kansas City. “Big Ben” has been awful on the road in recent years, basically transforming into Blake Bortles away from Heinz Field. Kansas City utilizes the electric Tyreek Hill in a number of ways on special teams and offense. Watch for a big play from him changing the game. Projected Score:  Chiefs 24 – Steelers 21.

Luke O’Connell: This game feels like the moment a fuse is lit on a marginally legal firecracker.   Something is going to explode, the risk is greater than the reward, and when the smoke clears we are going to be left shaking our heads at how it all plays out.   In a just world Big Ben and Tyreek Hill are human beings that deserve a fate far different than the praise and adulation and wealth heaped on NFL stars.  One of the two might be responsible for his team’s victory and the deeper they move in the playoffs the more we have to cringe and stare at the residue on all our hands.  It will probably be the best game of the week, but it needs to be said, if Ray Rice (correctly) is without a job, any man that lays hands on a woman, much less one who is 8 months pregnant, needs to be off our reality and fantasy teams.  RSO Angle:  Ware is a polarizing back, he is just the kind of moveable piece that should intrigue dynasty GMs.  Pitt’s stars are locked and loaded, but Ladarius Green offers worlds of intrigue if he can recover from the concussion. Projected Score: Steelers 28 – Chiefs 14.

#4 Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ #1 Dallas Cowboys  [Line: Dallas -4.5]

Stephen Wendell: Wow what a game this one should be. Dak and Zeke make their playoff debuts after a near flawless rookie season by both players. But Aaron Rodgers is as on point as he has ever been in his career. He seems poised for another Super Bowl run, and I simply don’t see him being denied this week. Dak and Zeke will play well, but their inexperience and the pressure of the moment will rear its ugly head at some point in the game, costing the Cowboys the game. Projected Score: Packers 28 – Cowboys 24.

Matt Papson: The Cowboys, top to bottom, are better than the Packers. Long before the 2016 season, I thought Dak Prescott would be a strong pro Quarterback. This is going to be the first of many playoff games for him. But, I feel obligated to go with the Packers because of one Aaron Charles Rodgers. Projected Score: Packers 35 – Cowboys 31.

Kyle English: The Packers roll into Dallas on a 7 game win streak, but got banged up quite a bit against the Giants last week, particularly Jordy.  Even if he’s able to go, you have to assume at this point he won’t be 100% which is awful news for Packers fans.  The Cowboys already went into Lambeau and won back in week 6 which is not an easy thing to do.  Unless Rodgers has a few more successful Hail Marys up his sleeve, I don’t think the Packers have what it takes to continue their season. Projected Score: Cowboys 31 – Packers 20. 

Robert Cowper: In this space last week, I said that as a Cowboys fan I feared the Packers the most.  After Green Bay’s trouncing of the Giants, I am even more worried.  It’s tough to find stats that back-up what my heart is rooting for.  The Green Bay defense is strongest against the run and weakest against the pass; the Cowboys defense is strongest against the run (gave up the fewest rushing yards in the league) but weaker against the pass.  Both are opposite what you were hoping for as a Cowboys fan.  The Cowboys only hope is if DE David Irving continues to create havoc and force Rodgers out of the pocket consistently.  Projected Score: Packers 29 – Cowboys 28.

Matt Goodwin: I’m very much looking forward to this game. Can Aaron Rodgers remain on fire? Can Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott continue to show they’ve moved beyond their rookie season on the field? There are so many storylines in this game, one I don’t believe Jordy Nelson will be available for. Look for Dallas to continue to pound the ball and run clock to attempt to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands. My gut tells me that Dallas has the better team, but I can’t pick against Rodgers when he’s this hot. Projected Score: Packers 27 – Cowboys 23.

Nick Andrews: To paraphrase Mugatu from Zoolander, “That [Aaron Rodgers] is so hot right now”. I thought that the Giants’ defense would be able to control Rodgers. And they did… for 28 minutes of the first half. Then Rodgers put the team on his back and made play after play before pulling away by the 4th quarter. If the Cowboys are going to succeed where the Giants failed they need to control the clock, run the ball, and not let Aaron Rodgers on the field. Lucky for them they have one of the best running backs in the league and don’t make unnecessary mistakes. But if the game comes down to a final drive and each offense has one opportunity to go down the field and score who do you trust more, the Wonder Kid Dak Prescott or the Bad Bad Man Aaron Rodgers? Projected Score: Cowboys 38 – Packers 35.

Dave Sanders: Let’s all take a moment to appreciate the brilliance of Aaron Rodgers.  The most hardcore of NFL observers have been subjected to far too much mediocre quarterback play throughout the season.  In a league where only have of the teams have competent options, we’re privileged to watch one of the all-time greats each and every week.  Doubt entered the minds of some after a slow start to 2016, but Rodgers has put together a truly special final three months and it doesn’t appear to be ending anytime soon.  Though final injury reports are not out yet, it appears the Packers will be without Jordy Nelson this week.  Expecting another huge performance from Randall Cobb is probably unreasonable, but Green Bay should feel more confident in his reliability as Aaron Rodgers’ defacto No. 2 target.  Expect Dallas to move the ball efficiently on offense against a below-average Packers defense.  Attempting to win the time of possession battle and keep Rodgers off the field, I’d expect Dallas to lean heavily on Zeke to the tune of 30 carries.  Many factors, including home-field, favor Dallas, but I can’t bet against Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs…especially while he’s on this remarkable run. Projected Score: Packers 31 – Cowboys 28.

Bernard Faller: This should be an epic contest. Aaron Rodgers is destroying both good and bad defenses right now in an MVP-type year. Green Bay likely loses star receiver Jordy Nelson in this one, though. I expect many stacked defensive fronts from the Packers in an attempt to limit Cowboys star running back Ezekiel Elliott and force fellow rookie Dak Prescott to win the game. Dallas comes up just short as Rodgers is simply playing too well at this part of the season. Projected Score:  Packers 31 – Cowboys 27.

Luke O’Connell: If Dallas loses this game, much will be made of the pressure, rookies, and walls.  Smarter men than most do a good job of debunking the rookie wall narrative.  There may be something to be made of what the pressure will do in this game.  Dak Prescott and Zeke played in massive college games all year long they have hurdled obstacles in the form of the elite athletes lined up across from them.   In a vacuum it would be hard to bet against their pedigree, their record, and their accomplishments this season.   Sometimes the chalk doesn’t win, however, and Aaron Rodgers seems set to wreak havoc.  RSO Angle:  The value fluctuation in Packer Receivers, and clarity on the proper tier and compensation for Dez Bryant. Projected Score: Packers 34 – Cowboys 31.

ENJOY THE GAMES EVERYONE!

More Analysis by Stephen Wendell

Wildcard Weekend Predictions

Updated: July 16th 2017

Yes, your fantasy season is over, but the NFL playoffs have begun! Whether your team is still alive or failed to make the exclusive 12-team field, the action this weekend should be very entertaining as there as some marquee matchups (Giants traveling to Green Bay) and some head scratchers that should still be entertaining (Oakland at 12-4 traveling to Houston with their 3rd string rookie QB). The RSO Writers have made their predictions for and given a little of each game, which can be found below. Enjoy the games!

A quick summary of the picks in case you don’t want to read each writer’s analysis…but you should because there are some great nuggets of information down there:

  1. Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans (Line HOU -3.5): ML – 4 OAK & 5 HOU // ATS – 5 OAK & 4 HOU
  2. Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (Line SEA -8): ML – 9 SEA & 0 DET // ATS – 5 SEA & 4 DET
  3. Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Line PIT -10): ML – 8 PIT & 1 MIA // ATS – 5 PIT, 2 MIA & 2 PUSH
  4. New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (Line GB -4.5): ML – GB 6 & NYG 3 // ATS – 3 GB & 6 NYG

#5 Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ #4 Houston Texans (9-7) [Line: Houston -3.5]

Stephen Wendell: Well, ready for the pillow fight of all pillow fights? Not sure how to dissect the a mentally damaged Brock Osweiler vs. Connor Cook matchup we are about to witness, but Cook will look to feed off his incredible Bowl Game performances (2014 Rose Bowl and 2015 Cotton Bowl) and use the Raider’s great offensive weapons while Osweiler will look to bounce back from being benched at the end of the season when it mattered most and pull out a playoff win and make a run to justify all the money he is making. I have loved the Raiders all year, and something tells me Connor Cook will do enough for the Raiders to win in what looks to be a very similar game to the first round game in 2012 where a rookie QB T.J Yates led the Texans to a playoff win over another rookie QB, Andy Dalton, who is still searching for that first elusive playoff victory. Projected Score: Raiders 21 – Texans 14.

Matt Papson: I’m probably one of the few people outside of Houston or Oakland looking forward to this matchup. I wish it were Tom Savage squaring off against Connor Cook instead of Brock Osweiler, but I’m excited to see Cook get a chance to play. He’s the first guy in the Super Bowl era to start his first NFL game during the playoffs. I’m rooting for him to succeed, but the Texans have been strong at home. I picked the Raiders to win the AFC before the year started, so it’ll be disappointing to see them get bounced in the wildcard round after such a stellar year for the struggling franchise. Projected Score: Texans 24 – Raiders 20.

Kyle English: This game is going to be dreadful to watch.  As a Hopkins owner in multiple leagues this year, I know Osweiler has been just horrendous in his short time with the Texans.  Meanwhile on the other side, we have Connor Cook making his first career start…in the playoffs…on the road…yikes.  However, Cook has played in big games in his time with MSU so I believe he’ll handle this situation fine.  Should be a low scoring game with struggling offenses and plenty of work for the kickers.  I like Oakland to pull it out and give Cook a 1-0 start to his career. Projected Score: Raiders 16 – Texans 13.

Robert Cowper: A lot of the conversation surrounding this game will be about the quarterback woes.  Specifically, many are talking about how the Raiders are in trouble after losing star QB Derek Carr and possibly losing backup Matt McGloin.  One thing that I believe has gone under the radar is how well the Raiders have managed their backfield trio of Latavius Murray, DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard.  All three had at least 100+ touches during the regular season and essentially alternated throughout the season depending who had the hot hand minus a few missed games (for comparison the only other playoff team to have that depth are the Lions who were forced to due to multiple multi-week injuries).  When Murray isn’t working between the tackles, Washington and Richard can provide a change of pace (averaging 5.4 and 5.9 yards per carry respectively); both Murray and Richard are more than capable receivers, combining for 62 receptions.  Washington had 10+ touches four times while Richard did three times and only one time did one of them do it in consecutive weeks (Washington in Weeks 5-6 while Murray was hurt), illustrating the hot-hand approach.  What I’m trying to say is, as long as Connor Cook can hand the ball off and complete some screen passes, the Raiders will be just fine.  The Texans defense is fine, about middle of the pack in most rushing stats, but it won’t be enough to steal a win.  Projected Score: Raiders 22 – Texans 13.

Matt Goodwin: After watching Brian Hoyer in a home playoff defeat to the Chiefs in the wild card round last year for the Texans, I vowed never to pick the Texans again in a playoff game until they got a serviceable quarterback. Well, Houston spent big in the free agent market on Brock Osweiler, thinking he’d be serviceable and unfortunately, early returns are that they swung and missed and the only reason their big-dollar quarterback is playing right now is because Tom Savage (who frankly wasn’t much better) has a concussion. That said, I don’t like the Raiders situation any more than I like Houston’s. While Connor Cook showed accuracy and the ability to win at Michigan State, he shriveled up like a frightened turtle in some big games. If Derek Carr was healthy, I’d be picking the Raiders and it wouldn’t be close. In the end, even with it being his first game back from an ankle injury, give me Lamar Miller’s rushing, the Texans tough defense against a rookie quarterback, and their 7-1 home record this season in a boring game to watch. Projected Score: Texans 17 – Raiders 13.

Nick Andrews: Before week 16 I would have said that the Raiders were the only question mark still left in the AFC in terms of “Who could upset the Patriots”. Fast forward two weeks and they will be starting a third-string rookie quarterback, on the road, in his first career start. While this by no means is a nod of excellence to the Texans and their lackluster options at quarterback it simply comes down to who I think will play less bad (that is a proper term to use for this matchup). Give me Osweiler and a strong Texans defense. Projected Score: Texans 18 – Raiders 12.

Dave Sanders: Nothing says the start of the postseason quite like Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler.  As the 3rd string QB for much of the year, Cook hasn’t seen the reps of a usual backup quarterback.  He even admitted this week that plays were called last week that he never even practiced.  Expect Oakland to call a very conservative game and lean heavily on their running game, even if Houston loads the box.  On the Houston side, I expect Brock Osweiler’s season-long struggles to continue.  He’ll likely find C.J. Fiedorowicz over the middle of the field about a half-a-dozen times, but will make too many mistakes and kill too many drives.  In what feels like a preseason game, I will take the Raiders. And just think – the winner likely gets to travel to New England next week…Projected Score: Raiders 23 – Texans 10.  

Bernard Faller: This matchup features arguably the worst starting quarterback of 2016 in Houston’s Brock Osweiler and Oakland rookie Connor Cook making his first professional start.  Both teams will rely heavily on the run game and limit quarterback touches offensively.  Houston holds the one big advantage in this game with one of the better defensive units in the NFL, particularly against the pass where the Texans allow only 6.6 YPA (tied for 2nd in the NFL).  Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus make trouble for Cook all day long and the Houston defense forces two big turnovers.  Osweiller finds redemption from a miserable season on the way to a Texan playoff victory.  Projected Score: Texans 21 – Raiders 13.

Luke O’Connell: The Brock Osweiler redemption begins (and ends) here.   He should be able to do just enough against one of the measurably worst quarterback prospects in a while.   Brock has done nothing to assure us he can lead an NFL franchise, but Cook couldn’t even get voted team captain for his Spartans.   Pro Football Reference presents this tail of per game averages for two quarterbacks:

Screen Shot 2017-01-05 at 11.43.22 AM

The helmsmen of these two playoff teams are remarkably similar.   If you guessed that player 1 is Cook, albeit over a markedly smaller sample size, good on you.   The difference is that Houston has a slightly stronger weighted defense according to the smart folks at Football Outsiders.   Injuries can be too much for a team to overcome, and are all witnesses to losing a great young QB like Carr too soon.   Look for the Houston Defense to rally as they have done all year.  RSO angle: Watch the RB rotation for Oakland (Jalen Richard is available in most leagues for a long term contract) and WR/TE targets for Houston. Projected Score: Texans 17 – Raiders 14.

#6 Detroit Lions (9-7) @ #3 Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) [Line: Seattle -8]

Stephen Wendell: It is just too hard to bet against the Seahawks at home ever and especially in January. This team is too experienced and used to the pressure, and while I think Matt Stafford will give everything he has (perhaps even a broken limb), he is going to fall just short in this one. The Seattle defense will be its normal self, but Detroit’s lackluster secondary, especially against tight ends, will be the difference…look for Jimmy Graham to have a big game. Projected Score: Seahawks 24 – Lions 20.

Matt Papson: This will be an interesting game, though I like the Seahawks to win the NFC at this point. I’m not sure I see a path to victory for the Lions, even though I expect Matt Stafford to play his heart out. Projected Score: Seahawks 38 – Lions 24. 

Kyle English: I think this one is going to be closer than most people think.  The Seahawks have a banged up secondary and the Lions are going to toss the ball all over the field.  Having said that, the Seahawks have the 12th man behind them and the Lions have lost 3 straight coming into the playoffs and have 8 straight playoffs losses dating back to 1991.  I don’t think the Lions reverse those trends.  Projected Score: Seahawks 27 – Lions 23.

Robert Cowper: Unlike for the Raiders, the Lions regular season backfield depth won’t mean much against the Seahawks, especially since Theo Riddick is now on IR.  It’s no surprise that the Seahawks defense is stout: #3 in points against and #1 in yards per rushing attempt.  However, they are more vulnerable in the passing game where Earl Thomas is out and they are #15 in yards per passing attempt.  Luckily, for Detroit they have Matt Stafford who doesn’t mind slinging the ball.  Stafford has only thrown for 300+ twice since their Week 10 bye but has still managed to average more than 39 attempts per game in that span.  Wilson hasn’t been as prolific over the same span but has, on average, attempted more passes over the last seven games than the first nine and far more this season than years past.  The Lions defense, per Yahoo Fantasy, allowed on average 1.3 TD from WRs during 2016 which is tied for the second worst in the league; not surprisingly then, they also gave up the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs.  The Las Vegas wisdom has this pegged as a pretty low scoring affair with an over/under set at about 42.5 depending on where you look; my gut tells me this is going to be a shootout, defenses be damned.  Projected Score: Seahawks 33 – Lions 29.

Matt Goodwin: The Lions find themselves limping into the playoffs with three straight losses (albeit to three NFC playoff teams). Going into a place like Seattle and getting a win in those circumstances is tough sledding. Seattle is showing plenty of cracks as well, but should be fired up in a home playoff game with a healthier than any point since the season opener Russell Wilson. While the Seahawks would like to establish their running identity against a suspect Lions defense, they ranked 25th in the league in rushing yards this season, which is a far cry from their Marshawn Lynch led teams. Perhaps the Seahawks were playing possum a bit with a division that was wrapped up fairly early and plan to use Wilson and Thomas Rawls on the read option more, which they were unable to do at all during the season due to injuries to both. If this ends up to be a battle of kickers, Seattle’s Stephen Hauschka has been very shaky on extra points and getting kicks blocked this season. Projected Score: Seahawks 23 – Lions 13.

Nick Andrews: Stick a fork in the NFC North; the Lions have this one in the bag. That’s what many people were saying while sticking their fork in some turkey on Thanksgiving. Well after three straight losses to end the season Fold Field will be empty this January and the Lions will have to go the dreary Pacific Northwest instead. The Seahawks have been up and down this season with questionable performances as of late but with no running game behind Matthew Stafford and Seattle’s defense being rich with playoff experience Russell Wilson just needs to avoid turnovers and they should be able to control this game. Projected Score: Seahawks 24 – Lions 13.

Dave Sanders: Detroit’s surprising season likely comes to an end Saturday.  Losers of three straight, the Lions hopes may hinge on the injured finger of Matthew Stafford as they’ll need him at his best to pull off the upset in Seattle.  From the Seahawks’ perspective, they’ll likely go as far as Russell Wilson can take them.  Their running game has been a disaster all year, with much of the blame falling on their horrid run blocking.  Expect Baldwin and Graham to do just enough to hold off the reeling Lions…Projected Score: Seahawks 27 – Lions 17.

Bernard Faller: Detroit limps into this contest the loser of three straight to finish the year.  Contrary to the Oakland-Houston game, this duel sets up as a pass heavy contest with Russell Wilson and Matt Stafford.  The Seattle offensive line has struggled all season and the Lions have not enjoyed any consistent usage in the run game.  The Seahawks defense will be the difference in this game.  While not the same unit without play making safety Earl Thomas, the defense still contains difference-makers at all levels including Michael Bennett, Bobby Wagner, and Cam Chancellor.  Detroit went to the playoffs by winning close games but not this one as Seattle wins at home.  Projected Score:  Seahawks 23 – Lions 20.

Luke O’Connell: That coach, that stadium, that defense.  It is hard to conceive of a scenario in which a Zach Zenner/Eric Ebron led offense can marshal a victory against the ‘Hawks.  Stafford’s saving grace is that no one expected him to rally for the victories the Lions did have this year.  This one should be light on drama. RSO angle: frustrated Lockett owners may be willing to sell for pennies and if Tate lays a Golden egg he could be had at a reasonable price. Projected Score: Seahawks 24 – Lions 10.

#6 Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) [Line: Pittsburgh -10]

Stephen Wendell: Nobody is quite sure how Miami ended up 10-6, but here they are with a chance to win and advance to a game against their divisional foe New England, a game in which they would probably be close to 14 point underdogs. Matt Moore is certainly one of the better backup QBs in the league, and I think he won’t completely embarrass himself, but the Steelers simply have too much offensive firepower with the killer Bs. Look for the game to perhaps be close in the first half but for the Steelers to pull away in the second half behind big performances by Roethlisberger, Brown and Bell. Projected Score: Steelers 35 – Dolphins 20. 

Matt Papson: I think this is going to be a lot closer than people think. And I think the Dolphins are better off with Matt Moore. The Dolphins aren’t particularly good, but I’m not certain on the Steelers either. Ultimately Ben, Antonio, and Leveon will find a way to advance. Projected Score Steelers 24 – Dolphins 21.

Kyle English: Since coming back from a suspension, Bell has racked up 1268 yards on the ground (good for 5th best for the season) and another 616 receiving yards in all of 12 games.  He’s been an absolute monster and, when combining him with Big Ben and Brown, they are almost impossible to stop.  Add in the fact that if the Dolphins get behind at all, they’ll probably be relying on Matt Moore to throw them back into the game and this one could easily turn into a blowout.  Projected Score: Steelers 38 – Dolphins 17. 

Robert Cowper: Despite beating them already in 2016, the Dolphins are a heavy underdog against the Steelers.  Everybody knows Le’veon Bell’s great, along with Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger, so we won’t spend any time on them but instead let’s look at Jay Ajayi vs the Steelers rush defense.  Ajayi was a surprise this season after being left at home for the Dolphins season opener.  Ultimately he earned 1,272 yards and 8 TDs, despite not getting more than 7 carries until Week 5.  In their early season game against the Steelers, Ajayi rushed for 204 yards and 2 TDs.  Most casual fans would assume the Steelers have a great defense but that is based solely on past reputation.  Aside from points against (#10), you’ll find the Steelers ranked between #12-18 in most defensive statistical categories.  I believe the Dolphins will be able to move the ball again this time and their prospects will rest heavily on how far Ajayi can carry them which should be far enough to keep it close.  I can’t believe I have convinced myself of this but my bold prediction is that this game will come down to a special teams touchdown from the Dolphins (it’s also how they beat the Jets in Week 9).  They are ranked #5 in kick off return average and have two return TDs (one kickoff, one punt).  Meanwhile, the Steelers have struggled on kickoff coverage, ranking #29 in kick off return average and #25 on punts.  Projected Score: Dolphins 18 – Steelers 11.

Matt Goodwin: In spite of Ben Roethlisberger’s success as a two-time Super Bowl winner, he’s never thrown for three touchdowns in a playoff game, and has only eclipsed 300 yards passing in three playoff games, which coincidentally are all losses. With the 18 degree weather in Pittsburgh and the Miami Dolphins 30th ranked run defense according to Pro Football Focus, look for Pittsburgh to run the ball early and often with Le’Veon Bell. Given his success a few weeks ago in the snow in Buffalo and his patience as both a runner and his skills as an elite pass catcher, Bell figures to be the bellcow that propels the Steelers to victory with a little bit of Antonio Brown sprinkled in. Matt Moore has been more than adequate as Ryan Tannehill’s fill-in and Jay Ajayi torched the Steelers for 204 yards and two touchdowns in a week 6 victory (30-15) in a game that the Dolphins dominated time of possession. I see the opposite happening in this game, with Bell running rampant and the Steelers controlling clock. Projected Score: Steelers 20 – Dolphins 10.

Nick Andrews: Unless Pittsburgh uses the same starters as they did against Browns last week it will be hard for the Dolphins defense to keep up with a lethal Steelers offense. The Dolphins defense looked to have come together against the Jets only to be brought back to earth when put up against the ageless Tom Brady. Faced with another elite quarterback, Big Ben should be able to pick his spots with this defense. While they have a solid running game with Jay Ajayi that can open up a big Kenny Stills touchdown at any point but unless they connect on two or three of those big plays Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell will be the only guys on Monday morning’s highlight reel. Projected Score: Steelers 31 – Dolphins 16.

Dave Sanders: Although the Dolphins beat the Steelers 30-15 in Week 6, I don’t give Miami much of a chance of advancing past Sunday’s game.  Without Ryan Tannehill, I’d expect the Dolphins to lean heavily on Jay Ajayi in an effort to control the clock and keep Ben and company on the sidelines.  It’s impossible to ignore Big Ben’s home/road splits at this point.  It’s truly jarring and has reached a point where I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as the only QB on my fantasy roster next season.  In likely Pittsburgh’s lone home game of the post-season season, I’d expect the Steelers’ offense to put this game out of reach by the 3rd quarter.  In DFS, LeVeon Bell’s price can’t be set high enough for me to fade him this week.  Projected Score: Steelers 34 – Dolphins 20.

Bernard Faller: Pittsburgh storms into the playoffs the winners of seven straight to end the regular season.  The Steelers offense focuses on the trinity of Ben Roethlisburger, Antonio Brown, and LeVeon Bell.  Miami also finished the season strong going 8-2 in the final 10 games.    This game also spotlights another backup quarterback in the playoffs, Miami’s Matt Moore.  Miami will attempt to run the ball all game long with sophomore sensation Jay Ajayi against an underrated Pittsburgh defense.  It will not work as Miami won’t keep pace with the Steelers offense.  Pittsburgh is just too talented across the board and triumphs handily.  Projected Score:  Steelers 27 – Dolphins 17.

Luke O’Connell: If this game was in Miami…OBJ and Cruz would be watching.   Also, the very real Ben Roethlisberger splits would make it a fun call to wager on Adam Gase’s sea mammals. However, all the indicators look great for Pittsburgh here.   Antonio Brown and Bell are transcendent players, and the home crowd in a great sports city might be enough to rattle even Matt Moore. RSO angle: Chances are the big names are not moving. Brown, Bell, Ajayi are set pieces.   Devante Parker and Jarvis Landry should be watched.   For GM’s willing to commit, this game might help open up some trade wallets. Projected Score: Steelers Big.

#5 New York Giants (11-5) @ #4 Green Bay Packers (10-6) [Line: Green Bay -4.5]

Stephen Wendell: Certainly the most intriguing playoff game of the weekend. Everyone knows that both of Eli’s Super Bowl titles included trips to Lambeau Field where the Giants took down the Packers as underdogs in both occasions (2007 NFC Title Game and 2011 Divisional Playoff Game). That experience and those good memories in Lambeau will be important, but I don’t think the Giants will do it a third time. Perhaps it is because I was in the stands in Philly and witnessed the start of Rodgers and the Packers six game-winning streak, but I just think that Rodgers is too focused and playing too well to be denied. This is the year Green Bay makes it back to the Super Bowl. Projected Score: Packers 28 – Giants 17.

Matt Papson: Choosing the Giants visiting Lambeau seems crazy as I type it. The packers are hot at the right time. The Giants are a better football team. Projected Score: Giants 27 – Packers 21.

Kyle English: Far and away the toughest game for me to call.  Rodgers completed his “run the table” prophecy and has played remarkable down the stretch.  They’ve even found something that looks at times like a run game to go with it while averaging over 30 PPG in their last 6.  Meanwhile, the Giants have relied quite a bit on their defense and allowed the second lowest PPG this season.  Eli has won a few in Lambeau before, but I think the aerial attack of the Packers gets it done in a close one.  Packers squeak out the W. Projected Score: Packers 24 – Giants 20. 

Robert Cowper: The Packers are a buzz saw.  As a Cowboys fan, I recently had somebody ask me which playoff team I would least like to see in Dallas’s Divisional Round matchup and I did not hesitate: Green Bay.  I’m not sold on Ty Montgomery as an every day RB but he’s good enough that it doesn’t matter.  Not surprisingly it all comes down to A-A-Ron.  Rodgers’ numbers are crazy.  The last INT he threw was on November 13th.  Over the last two weeks against Minnesota and Detroit, he has 647 yards and 8 TDs.  He’s also contributing on the ground to help pick up the slack from the lackluster running backs, rushing for 369 yards (a career high) and 4 TDs this season.  I don’t believe there is any way for the Giants to stop, or even slow, Rodgers even with their Top 10 passing defense.  If the Giants are missing CB Janoris Jenkins and/or DE Jason Pierre-Paul their chances are diminished even further.  Luckily for Eli Manning,  Odell Beckham Jr. et al, the Packers have a Bottom 3 defense in passing yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt, etc.  That will allow them to keep the final score closer than the play on the field will feel.  Projected Score: Packers 29 – Giants 20.

Matt Goodwin: I’m giving the Giants the best chance of the road teams to win this weekend, but with a huge contingency. Eli Manning has to be virtually flawless against a banged-up Green Bay secondary and the Giants questionable run game has to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands. If Eli can establish chemistry with Odell Beckham Jr. and hit some big plays, the Giants could come out victorious. That said, Rodgers is playing in another stratosphere right now and his chemistry with Jordy Nelson (especially in the red zone) is untouchable. Until he blinks, give me Rodgers at home.Projected Score: Packers 24 – Giants 21.

Nick Andrews: Appropriately the best wildcard game is saved till last. No team has been hotter than the Packers over the last six weeks and they benefit from the Lions late season collapse to earn an extra home game. Eli hasn’t had much to worry about in his playoff experiences at Lambeau, he’s won twice there in their last two Super Bowl runs, but he has been a serious hamper to his offense’s effectiveness this season. The team has a tremendous defense but they will need to score more than 20 points to defeat Aaron Rodgers. I still see them getting it done but only if Manning plays better than he did in December. Projected Score: Giants 26 – Packers 24.

Dave Sanders: There’s not much better than watching one of the best quarterbacks ever perform at the top of his game.  Understated throughout his epic run is the way Aaron Rodgers has protected the football, with zero interceptions since November 13th.  Converted running back Ty Montgomery has provided an added dimension that the Packers have lacked since Eddie Lacy’s remarkable 2014 season.  Count me out on the Giants’ bandwagon as I do not believe Eli will be able to put together a 3rd improbable playoff run, especially this late in his career.  Quietly having a very poor year, Eli ranked as ProFootballFocus’ 24th ranked QB as of 12/21.  Though he’s only had 16 interceptions this season, he’s had far more “turnover worthy” plays than most quarterbacks.  In what may be the first of many January wins for this Packers team, I’ll take Green Bay. Projected Score: Packers 31 – Giants 24.

Bernard Faller: This game also showcases two teams playing well going into the postseason.  Green Bay won the last six games on the strength of an offense which scored 30 or more points in each of the last four contests.  New York, on the other, finished 9-2 on the strength of a top-notch defense which has not given up 20 points in any game for seven weeks.  Something must give in this one.  The difference between MVP-candidate Aaron Rodgers and a perpetually mediocre Eli Manning will determine the outcome.  The Giants defense will keep things close but New York has no run game to lean on.  The erratic Manning will make at least one huge mistake which dooms New York.  Projected Score:  Packers 24 – Giants 20.

Luke O’Connell: Despite my aforementioned fandom for the Vikings, this is the game that we must see.  Aaron Rodgers continues his superlative run, Eli carries a playoff legacy into Lambeau with the game’s most exciting player as his wingman.   Winter may weigh heavily on these teams, as the projected temps are in the teens.   Eli suffers in the conditions he will face on several levels.   His game splits in grass/turf, cold/warm, and Lambeau specifically show a quarterback that plays at levels double-digit percentage points below his best, both in his career and this season. Rodgers is more ambiguous statistically in the cold, but the general trend of games this cold has driven scores a few points down and closer together. Look for the game to go under its projected Vegas line.   The narratives this week should encompass all the lines above, but the heart of the story here is how much Eli Manning can still play.   If his past playoff performance resides in that arm, then the Beckham, Cruz, Shepard trinity should be too much for the Packers to contain. RSO angle:   Every single receiver should be on the table for the right price.   Break the bank for Beckham? gamble on an aging Jordy? Devante Adams? Ty Montgomery (WRish)? Projected Score: Giants 24 – Packers 21.

More Analysis by Stephen Wendell