2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Best Fits – Quarterbacks

By Nick Andrews

Updated: April 19th 2021

The best part about being a dynasty player during the pre-draft offseason is the wishful guessing of where top prospects will go. While not always the case a perfect match between a player’s skills and team’s need/coaching philosophy can solidify their spot as an early first-round selection or present the opportunity for them to shoot up the rankings in the post-draft landscape. We only have to look back to last year’s draft where Clyde Edwards-Helaire was projecting as a mid-first to early second-round selection in most rookie drafts but soared to 1.01-1.02 levels when Kansas City scooped him up with their first pick.

For this article series, we will put our rose-colored glasses on for the top prospects at each position in 2021 to see who could be this year’s CEH. I want to give a big shout-out to Matt Waldman and his yearly Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP) for giving in-depth analysis on all of these players and being a huge influence on this article. I will not be giving any specifics directly from his work but if you want to know more than you could imagine on any given rookie each year, I highly suggest you check out his work here. As well, the average rankings for rookies provided will be coming from Dynasty League Football (DLF) so for the full list of player rankings go check them out.

Not every perfect landing spot I will suggest coincides with an immediate starting spot being open. Rather I am also looking to the future to see where openings may present themselves in the future based on other player’s contracts or overall fit with the team. Time as the understudy to a veteran may be more beneficial long term than just being thrust into the lineup as the immediate answer.

In the first part, we will look at the quarterbacks. For the interest of time-saving, I am going to skip Trevor Lawrence who is 99.9% locked into Jacksonville and therefore would be unlikely to project him anywhere else.

Justin Fields – Ohio State

DLF Ranking – 15th (2nd SuperFlex)

NFL Draft – Top 10 Selection

Best Fit – 1.03, San Francisco 49ers

Justin Fields is the player to watch if you like drama in the draft as there appears to be an open competition between Mac Jones, Trey Lance, and himself for the third (3^rd) quarterback off the board. The 49ers should take Fields as his ability to move around the pocket better than Jones and is more pro-ready than Trey Lance at this point. This would give defences nightmares with their current offensive weapons trying to also account for the running abilities that Fields can bring. The only thing stopping Kyle Shanahan from taking Fields would be his hesitancy for Fields’ mobility to create more ad-lib plays. Following the script and following exactly Shanahan’s guidelines is really what is keeping Jones in the conversation at third overall.

Mac Jones – Alabama

DLF – 29th (14th SF)

NFL Draft – Top 15 Selection

Best Fit – 1.04, Atlanta Falcons

While maybe not the sexiest pick ever, the similarities in Mac Jones and Matt Ryan would be a perfect mentor-to-peer transition for the Falcons. The team still has solid talent around the quarterback position but is stuck as a bottom feeder roster overall. The talk of trading Matt Ryan was also rumored throughout the start of the offseason which likely means that his days in Atlanta are left between one and two more seasons tops. Like the 49ers, I think giving 10-17 games of watching a veteran would do more for Mac Jones to learn the game the right way with Arthur Smith and be able to take the job fully by 2022 than to try and move him directly into a starting role with minimal offseason coaching or lesser talent around him.

Trey Lance – North Dakota State

DLF – 24th (12th SF)

NFL Draft – Top 15 Selection

Best Fit – 1.15, New England Patriots

This move would likely require a trade-up from New England as other teams like Denver, Detroit, and maybe still Carolina or even Minnesota at 12 would take him before New England is on the clock. If they were to get Trey Lance though it would be everything that we saw for the first two (2) games of 2020 with Cam Newton without the collapse from the final 14 games. Though Lance played against lower competition at NDSU, he was calling his own checks and audibles which is a big bonus to learning the Erhardt-Perkins offense that the Patriots use. The old Patriot system left with Tom Brady and if they were to take Trey Lance they would be fully embracing the new-aged mobile pocket NFL.

Davis Mills – Stanford

DLF – 65^th (64^th SF)

NFL Draft – 2^nd/3^rd Round

Best Fit – 2.51, Washington FT / 2.55, Pittsburgh Steelers

A project quarterback, Davis Mills is likely to be a day two selection by a team that has a veteran already but is looking to the future. Both Washington and Pittsburgh will need new starters in 2022 and neither team projects to be able to draft a top prospect in the top 10 next year so why not take a shot at developing a second-round talent. Mills can learn behind Ryan Fitzpatrick or Ben Roethlisberger, who both are more traditional pocket passers now but could move around the pocket and take off as needed in their younger days like Mills. While he might not turn into a top-10 quarterback, Mills could follow in the footsteps of a player like Derek Carr to become a staple QB2 who also came out of day two of the draft.

Kellen Mond – Texas A&M

DLF – 55th (45th SF)

NFL Draft – 3^rd Round

Best Fit – 3.74, Washington FT / 3.87, Pittsburgh Steelers

Whichever team does not get Mills a round earlier between Washington and Pittsburgh I could also see them pivoting and waiting for another round to take Kellen Mond out of Texas A&M. Truthfully, I am not as sold on Mond being anything more than a practice squad/3^rd string option but he would have the ability to again learn behind either veteran. Especially behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was a former seventh-round selection, Mond could learn how best to keep his NFL dream alive longer than many would project him to.

Kyle Trask – Florida

DLF – 46th (19th SF)

NFL Draft – Late 1^st/2^nd Round

Best Fit – 1.28, New Orleans Saints

Before diving more into Kyle Trask and only watching him casually I thought he was going to be a steal for teams that were not in the top 10 already. His last collegiate game left a bitter taste in some mouths but that should not be a reason for him to slip into the second round. The Saints are in cap hell and should be looking for a cheap quarterback option to have over the next four/five years, even with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill on the roster. Michael Thomas can play the Kyle Pitts role of “big man over the middle” and then Micky Loomis can look for a complementary receiver in the mid-rounds to fill out the offense. It always helps to have a superstar running back, Alvin Kamara, who can both run and catch for big plays out of the backfield too.

Zach Wilson, QB – BYU

DLF – 21st (4th SF)

NFL Draft – Top 10 Selection

Best Fit – 1.09, Denver Broncos

Zach Wilson is almost as guaranteed to go second overall to the Jets as Trevor Lawrence is to go first. While he could fit in New York with Robert Saleh and OC Mike LaFleur I think he would develop better in the smaller market and with the better offensively talented Denver Broncos. Wilson has a Baker Mayfield level of swagger that if it works in New York will make him one of the poster-QBs for the NFL. History tells us though that bright lights burn out quicker in New York and a slow start to his career could wreck an otherwise talented player. Wilson is everything that Drew Lock is but better as a quarterback prospect and clearly would be a player that John Elway would race his card up to the podium if he was to be available. Wilson with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, and KJ Hamler would give him all the tools he needs to succeed.

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The Watch List 2021: Early QB Tiers

By Bob Cowper

Updated: November 18th 2020

Throughout the rest of the season I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done early rankings but in hindsight those feel counterproductive to my ultimate goal of creating RSO’s rookie rankings that are used in the draft room. Frankly, it’s hard to change a ranking because it feels “locked in” once I put it out into the world. When I would create my early rankings I would always start by grouping the players into themed tiers first, so that’s what I will be sharing in this series. Each tier includes players whose potential and plot line feel similar to me; the sequence of tiers is indicative of a general order of expected draft value. I’ll repeat though: these are not rankings. Within each tier players are sorted alphabetically.

Future Pro Bowlers

Justin Fields, Ohio State
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

Almost everybody in the football world — NFL front offices, amateur draftniks like myself, fantasy football players — has had their eye on the 2021 NFL Draft for years. The crown jewel of the draft class, and the reason everybody has been talking about this draft for three years, is undoubtedly Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. Between he and Ohio State’s Justin Fields, this quarterback class is top heavy with a sizable tier break between the top two and the field. Lawrence might have been the first overall pick out of high school, let alone after his successful freshman and sophomore seasons. So far in 2020, Lawrence has continued to play at a high level and has been even more efficient than the last two campaigns; his completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD:INT ratio and passer rating have all improved. Lawrence is a once-every-ten-year prospect who mixes supreme size, plus athleticism, and a quiet confidence. He has missed two games to date after testing positive for covid, but we have no reason to believe he won’t fully recover and star once again in the College Football Playoff.

It’s hard to believe, but Justin Fields is off to an even hotter start in 2020 than Lawrence. Through three games, Fields has accounted for more touchdowns (13) than he’s thrown incompletions (11). His college career started out a bit rocky at Georgia before transferring to Ohio State, but it’s clear the move worked out perfectly for Fields. Off the field — pun intended — Justin Fields is a leader who helped ensure the Big Ten played in 2020.

I fully expect Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields to be the top two picks in the 2021 NFL Draft and look forward to cheering them on for years to come.

Surefire First Rounders

Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Zach Wilson, BYU

Prior to the start of the season, Trey Lance was the consensus QB3 in this draft class. Unfortunately for Lance fans like myself, we only got to see him play once this season due to the patchwork nature of the FCS football season. That has opened the door for BYU’s Zach Wilson to be the next off the board.

If you looked up the term “passing efficiency” in the dictionary you’ll see an entry that says: See Lance, Trey. In seventeen games as a starter, Lance has thrown 30 passing TDs to just a single INT. For good measure he’s also added 16 rushing TDs. Two important notes, 1) Lance is playing against a lower level of opponent in the FCS, and 2) he has a small sample size of starts. But, his skill is apparent when you watch the tape. When I recently wrote about Lance I ended by saying, “Lance oozes natural talent, confidence and charisma that has me as excited as I was when studying Patrick Mahomes back in 2017.” Trey Lance still has a lot to prove during the draft process but he’ll be a first rounder and I predict he will climb back up overall rankings once teams start seeing him in person.

Zach Wilson came on strong midseason in 2018 and earned attention from #DraftTwitter. His 2019 season was a bit of a disappointment though, including missing some time to injury. 2020 has been a revelation for Wilson and the undefeated Cougars. When I previewed Wilson heading into Week 1, I quipped that “he has a bit of a ‘je ne sais quoi’ about him.” Wilson keeps plays alive, is a threat to pickup chunk yardage with his legs, and has a knack for making big plays. Like Lance, Wilson hasn’t faced the toughest competition this year but he’s been impressive nonetheless. I think there’s too much mustang in Wilson for him to be a day one NFL starter but his intangibles and raw ability will make him a late first at worst.

Preseason Shortlist Picks

Tanner Morgan, Minnesota
Jamie Newman, Georgia/Wake Forest
Brock Purdy, Iowa State
Kyle Trask, Florida

This next grouping comprises four players who I had high hopes for heading into the 2020 season and whose current draft value is all over the place now. Jamie Newman, a dual threat with great size who in 2019 led Wake Forest to one of its best seasons in recent history, opted out. He’ll need to wow NFL teams at the combine and throughout the predraft process. Perhaps Tanner Morgan should have opted out as well because it’s been a rough start to the season for him and the Gophers. After a strong sophomore season, Morgan was a popular pick for an under the radar pocket passer prospect but I suspect his stock is sliding now. I haven’t had a chance to watch much Brock Purdy this season, but from what I have seen it does not appear that he took the step forward that I hoped for. Purdy and the Cyclones are atop the Big 12 right now so he’ll have two more statement games remaining: one against Texas on Black Friday and again in the Big 12 Championship game.

Of the four prospects in this tier, Kyle Trask has clearly done the most to improve his 2021 draft stock. The Gators are currently the favorites to represent the SEC East in the conference championship. The reason they are in the driver’s seat for the division is that the unflappable Trask led Florida to a resounding 44-28 win over Georgia; Trask threw for a career-best 474 yards and tossed 4 TDs. He leads the NCAA in touchdown passes (28) and has not had fewer than four in a game this season. Against Arkansas last weekend, Trask threw for 6 TDs for the second time this season. His unmatched production this season surely has him in the hunt for the Heisman. I was critical of him in the spring, but after what I’ve seen this season Trask feels like a high floor prospect who has a shot at being a first rounder.

Regular Season Risers

Mac Jones, Alabama
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

The three passers in this cohort are my picks to be the biggest risers when we compare their preseason and postseason draft values. Because of that, I thought it felt appropriate to place their tier here, just after the players we were talking about most in the preseason.

Mac Jones has lit the SEC on fire in his short stint so far as the starter. He’s leading the conference in a number of metrics including yards per attempt and passer rating. Sure, he has better targets than some NFL teams but he delivers them an accurate deep ball. Jones puts good touch on his ball and loves to pump fake (which is a skill I love seeing in college quarterbacks). Jones might also be the rare player who comes in bigger than his listed 6020/214 measurables. He is only a junior, and since this year won’t count against his eligibility, Jones could stay on at Tuscaloosa for another two seasons even with his trend line pointing due north.

Conversely to Jones, Aggies’ QB Kellen Mond is a veteran fourth year starter with 28 career wins. Mond has led A&M to a surprising 5-1 start and a #5 ranking. Unfortunately, the Aggies lost to Alabama earlier in the year so they would need a two-loss implosion from the Tide to win the division. Wins against LSU and Auburn would surely signal who is next-best in the division though. Kellen Mond’s arm, toughness and athleticism always jump off the screen when I watch him so I’m not sure why he isn’t rated higher by draft fans, maybe it’s something I’m not seeing with his mechanics. If there’s a “why the hell was this guy drafted that late” player on this list five years from now, it’ll be Mond.

I just recently wrote about Desmond Ridder and how he looks like “the whole package” to me. Since I published that, all Ridder did was account for four scores in a blowout 55-17 win over East Carolina. Don’t sleep on Desmond Ridder.

Winners with Question Marks

Ian Book, Notre Dame
Shane Buechele, SMU
Sam Ehlinger, Texas
D’Eriq King, Miami

This quartet is my biggest question mark when it comes to draft value. Somebody with the athletic gifts that D’Eriq King possesses could have a meteoric rise to the first round if he finishes strong and impresses at the combine (although I think it’s safe to say at this point that we’re not looking at another Kyler Murray-esque leap to first overall). His combination of deep ball arm, speed and elusiveness is rare but I’m sure teams will question his size and durability.

Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger, former teammates at Texas, are both flat out winners. Buechele found his forever home at SMU where he currently owns a 17-5 record as the starter. He currently leads the FBS in a number of passing stat categories. Buechele is a leader and has helped rehab the image of a school that’s long been associated with past transgressions. Ehlinger’s record of 28-15 isn’t as impressive but he’s led the Longhorns to so many victories by sheer force of will. I’ve never watched Ehlinger and thought “wow, he’s a great passer” but I have thought “wow, I’d love to have that guy on my team.”

Admittedly, I have been a debbie downer when it comes to Ian Book through the years. I haven’t quite come around on him as a pro prospect — I always feel like I’m waiting for a mistake — but I cannot argue with his performance in this upside down season. College football is better when Notre Dame is in the playoff hunt and we have Book to thank for that (along with Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah of course).

I’ve casually watched these four play in — and win — a lot of college football games. I will need to give them their due film study in the offseason to see if they have the skills to push into Day Two territory.

Transfers Forging a New Path

KJ Costello, Mississippi State
Feleipe Franks, Arkansas
Brandon Peters, Illinois

These three players are each starting for a different Power 5 squad than they started their career with. I’m always interested in closely watching big-name transfer quarterbacks to see how the change of scenery impacts their chance at stardom.

In the case of Brandon Peters, he’s probably wishing he had stayed at Michigan. The Wolverines are off to an awful start and a good portion of the blame rests on new signal caller Joe Milton who is not yet ready for prime time. That could have been Peters’ job if he had stayed. I’ve been a fan of Peters since I saw him live in his first game action in Ann Arbor and still think he has an outside shot at making an NFL roster. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen much of Peters yet this season because of a positive covid test.

Both KJ Costello and Feleipe Franks have caught my attention at different points this year. In his first game for Mississippi State, Costello completed 36 of 60 passes for 623 yards and 5 TDs. Things have gone down hill for Costello since then though: he has just one more touchdown pass to eight interceptions and missed the last game with a head injury. Costello has a prior history of concussions so that is a bit concerning. Feleipe Franks started the season with a middling outing against Georgia in the season opener but has been on a tear since (with the team going 3-3 in those six). In those six contests against some of the SEC’s best, Franks has 15 touchdowns and just one pick; he’s also adding important yards on the ground too.

All three of these guys were highly rated 4-star recruits with NFL size and above average physical traits. Some NFL team is bound to give them a shot as a late rounder as a project quarterback.

Riddle Wrapped Enigmas

Adrian Martinez, Nebraska
McKenzie Milton, UCF
Kenny Pickett, Pitt

If we were choosing up teams for a Thanksgiving day pickup game, the three guys on this list would be in the running for an early pick. Martinez has a ton of natural talent but has never put it together in Scott Frost’s offense. In fact, as I was working on this article, Martinez was sidelined in favor of Luke McCaffrey. If the Martinez era is officially over in Lincoln, I hope we see Martinez transfer somewhere else for one last hurrah. Speaking of Scott Frost, McKenzie Milton was his prolific quarterback during that magical undefeated 2017 season at UCF. Milton suffered a catastrophic leg injury in 2018 and is hoping to return to the field before he ends his college career. Between the injury and his small frame, it’s unlikely Milton gets any NFL Draft love but I’ll be rooting for him to complete his comeback. Kenny Pickett has a cult-like following and I’m one of those fans. He hasn’t truly shown us NFL-worthy traits but he’s a fun guy to watch and has been solid for Pitt. Pickett has a swagger and confidence that comes through whenever I see him play.

These three players may never see a regular season snap in the NFL but I’ll bet we see some preseason highlights from them whenever they attempt to make the jump to the pros.

Small School Sleepers

Zerrick Cooper, Jacksonville State
Aqeel Glass, Alabama A&M
Levi Lewis, Lousiana-Lafayette
Zac Thomas, Appalachian State

The four guys in this final tier should be priority free agents if not a seventh round flyer. If given the chance they just might be able to make an NFL roster. Although it would take some crazy dominoes to fall for them to be fantasy relevant any time soon, I think you should still file their names away.

Heading into 2019, I identified Zerrick Cooper as my pick to win the Walter Payton Award, the FCS equivalent of the Heisman. Cooper wasn’t named an award finalist but he did throw for over 3,400 yards and scored 34 total touchdowns. Against Florida State earlier this season, Jacksonville State held a lead at halftime and scared Seminoles fans half to death; Cooper completed 22 of 30 passes for 232 yards in the game, adding a score on the ground. Cooper has good size at 6030/225 and is a transfer from Clemson.

Unfortunately we did not get to see Aqeel Glass at all this season since the SWAC moved their season to the spring. I highlighted Glass a few months ago and chose him as my top small school quarterback sleeper (Cooper would be a close second). He’s tall (6050) with good pocket mobility. He was near the top of the FCS in key passing stats in 2019 and I’d expect the same in 2020 if he takes the field.

Levi Lewis and Zach Thomas are bound to be compared to each other. They are two of the Sun Belt’s best-ever quarterbacks. They will both end their careers with over 6,000 passing yards and 60 total touchdowns. Lewis and Thomas are both undersized dual threat quarterbacks who are comfortable outside of the pocket and can keep plays alive. Lewis is a lefty which is interesting because there are so few of them at the NFL level. Of the two, I would guess that Thomas has the better pro portfolio. A December 4th matchup will be fun to watch and could have Sun Belt Championship implications.

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
Film: 2021 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com, nflmockdraftdatabase.com
NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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The Watch List 2021: Week 5 Preview

By Bob Cowper

Updated: October 3rd 2020

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will preview the prospects you should be watching each week so you know who will be fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

The 2020 college football season started in earnest last week with the SEC kicking off and things are only looking up for draft fans as the rest of the college football world returns soon. Until then, we’re “stuck” with the SEC for our premier matchups. The centerpiece game of Week 5 is without a doubt the matchup between #7 Auburn and #4 Georgia at 7:30pm on ESPN. Neither team looked convincing in their opening victories so this will be an important game for one of them to get back on track with a statement win. I touched on a number of players from those two squads last week (I see you Seth Williams) so for this preview I am instead going to direct your attention to two Top 10 talents who will be playing earlier in the day. At 12:00pm you should be watching TE Kyle Pitts and Florida face off against the South Carolina Gamecocks. Then at 3:30pm turn to ESPN+ for your only chance at seeing NDSU’s Trey Lance this year. Want to learn more about these two? You should…

Kyle Pitts, WR, Florida

Nobody did more for their professional prospects in Week 4 than Florida TE Kyle Pitts. He seemed even more dominant than his 8-170-4 stat line would dictate if that’s even possible. Regular readers will remember that I profiled Pitts in the Spring and predicted he would be a “hot NFL Draft commodity.” Frankly, I thought that would take more than just a single game but here we are. #DraftTwitter is abuzz with “Pitts as TE1” talk and I’m here for it.

So what was it about his outing against Ole Miss that has fans looking forward to his matchup against South Carolina this week? Let’s take a closer look thanks to this perfect tweet from the SEC Network that has a short video including each of Pitts four scores.

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1309956964403810304?s=20

If you were trying to cherry pick a season-long highlight package that showcased all of Pitts strengths you couldn’t do better than the above video. On the first play you see how Pitts can be deployed as if he is going to block before sneaking out into the flat for an easy score. (Pitts being a serviceable and willing blocker obviously helps with this feint.) On the second score he fights with the press corner off the line of scrimmage and then again at the top of his stem. He maybe pushes off a bit but spins off the defender and locates the well-placed ball and makes the catch as he falls past the goal line. Neither defender had a chance to make a play on the ball, just a perfect connection between quarterback and receiver. On the third touchdown Pitts shows us his speed and separation as he beats his defender down the seam. Like in the second play, he adjusts well to the ball that is under thrown. He lands a stiff arm that knocks the tackler off of him because of his longer reach. Then it’s off to the races, and none of the three DBs gets within five yards of him. Finally, Pitts showed us that he can be a weapon in the red zone. He’s lined up just off the line of scrimmage, runs a middle route against double coverage and beats both defenders in the air. At 6060/240, Pitts can win just about any jump ball.

Pitts literally put on a clinic against Ole Miss and I’m so glad I was tuned in and will certainly be watching again this week against South Carolina. If we were drafting today, I have no doubt that Kyle Pitts would be the top tight end selected and surely in the top half of the first round. Hopefully this Gator keeps chomping all the way throughout the season.

Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

In a year full of strange seasons, perhaps none is stranger than that of the North Dakota State Bison. The FCS, as a collective, is not playing football this fall, however some of its teams were permitted by their conference to create their own schedule. Some of those teams, like Central Arkansas and Houston Baptist, have benefited from the situation because their early games surely had more viewers than in a usual year. NDSU has just a single game on their schedule and it comes this week against the aforementioned Central Arkansas. Thankfully for draft fans the game is scheduled to be broadcast on ESPN+ giving us a chance to see superstar quarterback Trey Lance in action once more before he inevitably starts his NFL Draft preparation. To his credit, Lance is apparently going to play in the game and says his focus is on the game and not his future. If he returns to campus next year it’ll be a big surprise.

Lance leapt into the national conversation about halfway through his redshirt freshman season, his first as the starter. He accounted for 11 total TDs through the campaign’s first three games and kept up an impressive pace all season long. He ended with 2,786 passing yards, 28 passing TDs and ZERO interceptions; he also added an even 1,100 yards and 14 TDs on the ground. Lance had a record-setting season and led the Bison to a perfect 16-0 record. The list of his 2019 accomplishments on his athletic department bio has twenty-two bullet points. In case the stats weren’t enough to convince you, take a look at these highlights:

Just secure a top 10 pick so you can draft Trey Lance and prosper @Vikings pic.twitter.com/ZDgD5UZElk

— Tyler Carmer (@SkolNative) September 30, 2020

On the field, Lance is a multi-faceted force for defenses to gameplan against. Size-wise he’s listed at 6040/226 and DraftScout.com predicts he’ll run in the 4.60 range (think: Ryan Tannehill). When I wrote about Lance back in May, I gushed about his arm talent saying that “Lance has the ability to uncork the ball with placement.” Outside the pocket, he keeps his eyes downfield and throws very well on the move. When running Lance looks more like an upright running back than a scrambling QB. He’s not afraid to initiate contact and is a high effort player who will sacrifice his body for a first down. (That’s admirable but he’ll need to make sure he keeps himself healthy and avoids big hits.) I can’t wait to study Lance further and get to know him better as a prospect because he could be special. I have not seen that much of Lance yet, none of us really have given he’ll essentially come out as a one-year starter, so take this next sentence with the requisite grain of salt: Lance oozes natural talent, confidence and charisma that has me as excited as I was when studying Patrick Mahomes back in 2017.

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
Film: 2021 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

More Analysis by Bob Cowper