2018 NFL Mock Draft: Part IV, Picks 49-64

By Bob Cowper

Updated: April 11th 2018

Are you starting to suffer from #DraftTwitter mock draft fatigue? Honestly, I am. There are so many mock drafts out there that I’ve actually found myself tuning out and avoiding those tweets, articles, blog posts, etc. Instead, I started to work on my own NFL mock draft. Mocking is a great way to force yourself to do some research and make qualitative decisions about specific players. It’s also the best way to define your own opinions on the players, rather than relying on the #DraftTwitter groupthink.

Here’s the method to my madness… I started out by creating positional rankings and tiers for each position, concentrating on players who could potentially be drafted in the Top 100. Next, I consulted my preferred team needs resource which was a community effort on the r/NFL_Draft subreddit. The spreadsheet collects info about primary and secondary team needs, scheme, draft strategy and character risk tolerance. While it may not be perfect, I think it’s more useful than most similar sites and is far better than I could compile on my own. Next, I referred to Our Lads depth charts which are my favorite (you should also bookmark their glossary). For some teams I also visited Spotrac to get invaluable information about contracts and free agency. To keep track of my picks, I am using the mock draft spreadsheet created by Reddit user Mbrr1214, to which I made a few slight tweaks. Team names are color coded for quick recognition; colored pick numbers correspond to the pick’s original owner.

A few notes before we get started…

This mock draft was compiled predominantly on March 30-31 with some edits in the following days. It will be posted in pieces over the three weeks leading up to the NFL Draft so please keep in mind the dates in which it was first created should there be any breaking news in the interim.
My knowledge of offensive skill players far outpaces that of offensive linemen and defensive players. That’s not to say I haven’t seen the other players play, it’s just that my analysis is more shallow. I covered many of these linemen and defensive players during the season and during my bowl previews but I have admittedly not done a deep study.
I did not include any trades which can obviously turn this mock draft on its head. Personally, I think mock drafts that include trades are a cop-out and a way for the author to skirt around tough decisions. Real GMs may not always have the option of trading out of a pick and must make a decision on whether they go BPA (Best Player Available) or reach to fill a team need. For a mock draft author to say “well, Quenton Nelson is the best player on the board, let’s trade this pick to a team that needs a guard” is missing the point of the exercise.

What Did I Learn?

I’ve done mock drafts before but never a full two rounder with “honorable mentions.” I walked away with a few insights:

More quarterbacks will be drafted than you think and they will be drafted earlier than you hoped.
Solid offensive tackle prospects are becoming less common and, as such, teams will have to reach for them nearly as often as they do for quarterbacks.
If I had to build my own team, I would rarely use a top 75 pick on a running back or wide receiver. Offensive skill players, aside from the quarterbacks, fell much further down my mock than anticipated.

Honorable Mentions

These players did not get selected in my mock but I had originally listed them as potential targets when I started my research. Since I considered them while working on this project, I thought I should share their names as they could be some of the top targets in Rounds 3 and 4. They are ordered by position then by last name – they are not ranked.

Welcome to the 2018 NFL Mock Draft…

#64 – Browns – Kemoko Turay, EDGE, Rutgers

Homer pick alert. With my last pick in my two-round mock, and the first one that you’re reading, I have the Browns taking Kemoko Turay. As a Rutgers season ticket holder, I have been both enticed by and disappointed by Turay. His blocked field goal against Michigan in 2014 remains one of my favorite football moments ever experienced in person at the stadium. The “Kemoko Dragon” performed well at the Senior Bowl and became a darling of one of my favorite draft resources: NDT Scouting. NDT had numerous pieces highlighting Turay around the Senior Bowl but I feel like his name has fizzled a bit as of late. Turay’s career stats are marred by injuries and ineffectiveness but he has raw ability that teams covet. I use the word raw on purpose because he definitely needs some work. His senior season at Rutgers was a pretty good one: 60 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 sacks. Edge rusher is not a position of immediate need for the Browns, but when you five of the first 64 picks, you can afford a luxury pick or two. The depth chart ahead of him is why I would love to see Turay taken by the Browns. He can come in and learn while he bulks up. Given time, I think that Turay will be a starting end in the league.

#63 – Patriots – Kyle Lauletta, QB, Richmond

Rumors are swirling that the Patriots might take a quarterback late in the first round. I think it’s more likely that they take one here at pick #63 (mostly because I doubt they hold onto both of those late first rounders). If the Patriots pull the trigger in the first round, it would be for Mason Rudolph, whereas if they wait until the second I think it would be Kyle Lauletta. Lauletta played at Richmond in the Colonial Athletic Association in the FCS. Lauletta threw for 3,737 yards and 28 TDs last season, adding 4 rushing TDs. Lauletta has a career completion percentage of 63.5% and improved his accuracy each year as the starter. He does throw too many interceptions though, 35 over the last three seasons. My first look at Lauletta came in the lead up to the Senior Bowl when I read Benjamin Solak’s “Contextualized Quarterbacking” piece about the Senior Bowl quarterbacks. He went on to win the MVP award at the Senior Bowl, moving himself up draft boards. I went back and re-read Lauletta’s section and two words confirmed for me that the Patriots would target him: “mechanically pure.” In case you were wondering, the Pats took Jimmy Garoppolo, an FCS quarterback who thew too many interceptions but had a quick release, with pick #62 in 2014.

#62 – Vikings – Braden Smith, G, Auburn

The most immediate need that I identified for the Vikings was their offensive line. I wanted to address the line with both of their first two picks, hopefully ensuring that new QB Kirk Cousins can last for the duration of his fully guaranteed contract. Smith is my highest rated lineman on the board at this point so it was an easy pick. He was an AP All-American in 2017 and starred at the combine. Smith came in as the biggest guard (6’6″ and 315lbs) in the class. He also had the highest vertical jump and came in second in the bench press and broad jump. He’s big enough and athletic enough to hold his own across the line so he could prove to be a valuable addition to the Vikings offense.

#61 – Jaguars – Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado St

I was surprised when the Jaguars let Allen Robinson leave in free agency and then cut Allen Hurns. I figured they would at least hold onto one of them. Instead, they decided to re-sign Marqise Lee and add Donte Moncrief from the Colts. Moncrief is now the highest paid receiver on the team, but they must not be too convinced because they only gave him a one year deal. Michael Gallup has an interesting personal story which I wrote about a few weeks ago. He had numerous Power 5 scholarship offers but his test scores were not good enough so he had to go the JUCO route and then ended up at Colorado State. If he had played at a school like Missouri originally, we could be talking about the top receiver in the class. Some experts still feel that way about Gallup and trust his pedigree over his route to the pros. I like Gallup but he has a few negatives that bump him down for me. Primarily, he lacks elite measureables and is prone to losing focus. There’s a lot to like though so that seems like nit-picking. Gallup plays faster than his 4.51 forty indicates. He is good with the ball in his hands after the catch, utilizing his all-around athletic ability (he earned sixteen varsity letters in high school). I believe Gallup’s play strength is better than advertised which will be a useful trait as he adds weight for the NFL. If Lee continues to ascend as he did in 2017, and Moncrief proves he’s not a bust, the Jaguars could be looking at an under the radar receiving corps this year.

#60 – Steelers – Darius Leonard, LB, South Carolina St

Similarly to the 49ers below, the Steelers brass would not have expected to need to spend draft capital on an inside linebacker if you had asked them a few months ago. Unfortunately, though, that is the reality after Ryan Shazier’s frightening spinal injury. Shazier says he’ll play again but I think it’s safe to say that that will not be any time soon. You’re forgiven if you have never heard of Darius Leonard. Leonard is a fifth year senior from South Carolina State, a 3-7 MEAC side. I had heard the name a few months back but never did any research so I decided to watch one of his 2017 game films and a highlight reel as a quick primer. Against FCS foe NC Central, he often looked like the best player on the field, showing good speed, especially to the sideline. He is effective in coverage and plays a great QB spy because he has the quickness to shadow the passer and then meet him at the edge. Leonard tallied 100+ tackles each of the last two seasons and is an adept pass rusher despite his coverage responsibilities (20 career sacks). Leonard will likely compete with free agent signing Jon Bostic for a starting role. Bostic is on his fifth team in five years so I’d put my money on the rookie.

#59 – 49ers – Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas

The thought of the 49ers drafting a linebacker in the second round of the 2018 draft would have seemed a little crazy eleven months ago. Fast forward though and it’s possible that San Fran needs to plan for a future without MLB Reuben Foster. Foster was arrested twice this offseason and missed six games due to various injuries in 2017. When researching his off-field issues, I also came across a story about him getting sent home from the combine last year which I had forgotten all about. Jefferson would be a good pick for the 49ers because he could fill the MLB slot until Foster returns from an anticipated suspension. Jefferson’s best position, according to Charlie Campbell and Lance Zierlein, may end up being at WLB. The projected starter at that spot for the 49ers is Malcolm Smith who missed all of 2017 with a torn pectoral. Either way, whether it’s in the middle or on the weak side, Jefferson will prove valuable from Day One.

#58 – Falcons – Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech

This feels a little early for Settle because I had at least one other DT ranked above him, however, he fits a more immediate need for the Falcons at NT. The Falcons signed Dontari Poe to a one year deal in 2017 and let him move on to division rival Carolina this offseason. Settle is big at 6’3″ and 329lbs and would be a space eater for the Falcons. Settle is a former 5-star recruit who was ranked by ESPN as the 19th best overall recruit in his class and the second best at the position. In college, he never really “settled” in. He’s a redshirt sophomore so maturity and experience are a concern, as is his low level of production. Settle has just four career sacks, all coming in 2017, and 53 career tackles. The Falcons are a pretty complete team so I think it’s best for them to address a need, even if it may be a bit of a reach.

#57 – Titans – Taven Bryan, DT/DE, Florida

Any time somebody draws comparisons to JJ Watt, you should take note. When researching Bryan, I came across multiple sources running with the comp, including the NFL Research Twitter account. Bryan’s production continued to increase in 2017, when he finished with career highs in snaps, sacks, quarterback hits and hurries. Bryan played as a DT in a 4-3 at Florida and will likely play DE in 3-4 sets with the Titans. I expect the Titans to use multiple sets though so Bryan could move inside when they switch to a 4-3. I also envision Bryan playing inside of the 3-4 on passing downs to give offenses a different look and increase pass rush pressure. Bryan blew away the DT class with his explosiveness and agility at the combine, leading in four drills: vertical jump, broad jump, shuttle and 3-cone.

#56 – Bills – Billy Price, G/C, Ohio State

This is Buffalo’s fourth pick in the first two rounds. Earlier I have them address quarterback, wide receiver and linebacker. With #56, I wanted the Bills to make a value pick for the future. If Billy Price didn’t tear a pectoral muscle at the combine, he would have been a late first round prospect. Price can play at either guard position or center, as he did for the Buckeyes, but I’d expect him to find a home as an NFL center. Sadly, starter Eric Wood was forced to retire after last season due to an injury so the Bills could use a long term solution at the position. They did sign Russell Bodine from Cincinnati last month but it’s just a two year deal with a potential out after 2018. That would be perfect timing to give Price time to recover before becoming the permanent starter in 2019.

#55 – Panthers – Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis

Miller is my favorite player in this draft class. His measureables don’t stand up to others in the class, which is why we find him at #55 and not at the top of the second, but I’m not deterred. Miller’s release is superb and he makes the spectacular catch look routine with excellent body control. In addition to his playmaking ability, Miller has repeatedly impressed me with his toughness and determination. There were times when he willed the Tigers to comeback or to victory, often exhausted or banged up. He has the versatility to line up anywhere and was Pro Football Focus’ sixth ranked slot receiver in 2017. With Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith on the field with him this season, I would anticipate seeing Miller in the slot. In terms of Miller’s long term projection, this fit works well because I doubt that either Smith or Funchess stick around long.

#54 – Chiefs – Josh Sweat, EDGE, Florida State

I was of two minds when considering the Chiefs first pick of the 2018 draft (they traded their first rounder in the deal to land Pat Mahomes last year). My first thought was that the Chiefs should be cautious, opting for a sure thing since they are missing a first rounder. My second thought was that because they were missing that first rounder that they should be more aggressive and make a high risk, high reward pick. My id won out and here we have Josh Sweat. Sweat is a complicated prospect because he has a history of knee injuries that make him a risk. Those injuries though are the only reason that Sweat would be available to the Chiefs at this pick. A player with Sweat’s combine measureables (4.53 40 yard dash at 6’4″ and 251lbs) and production (29 career tackles for loss and 14.5 career sacks) would not normally be available here.

#53 – Bills – Josey Jewell, LB, Iowa

It’s startling how little draft capital the Bills have invested in the linebacker position. Only two of the seven backers currently on the roster were drafted, the rest were all college free agents. Those two who were drafted, Matt Milano and Tanner Vallejo, were fifth and sixth rounders last year. The Bills drafted the position this high twice before in recent memory, in 2013 and 2016, but both Reggie Ragland and Kiko Alonso were traded away. Jewell is the next up in my linebacker rankings and he would be a good fit at MLB in the Bills system. It’s fun reading scouting reports on Jewell and seeing how the author tries to tiptoe around the fact that Jewell is simply unathletic. However, he is quite productive: he recorded 124 or more tackles each of the last three years. In his write up about Jewell, Matt Miller said that “all those hyperbolic cliches like ‘tackling machine’ actually apply to Jewell.” If history is any indication, Jewell may not be long for Buffalo but I’m confident that he would make an impact before his subsequent trade.

#52 – Ravens – Martinas Rankin, T/C, Mississippi State

The Ravens offensive line ranked 18th in 2017 according to Pro Football Focus. Perhaps that should come as a surprise given that the Ravens spend the 28th most, on a per player average, on the offensive line. The team spends even less at center where they rank 29th in spending. Rankin is a versatile lineman who played tackle in college but could end up playing center in the pros. The Bulldogs tried him out at center last Spring but kept him at tackle instead. Drafting a player like Rankin would give the Ravens a lot of flexibility and could help solidify the line both at tackle and center, wherever the immediate need is.

#51 – Lions – James Daniels, C, Iowa

The Lions need a center and James Daniels is a damn good one. Last year’s starting center, Travis Swanson, has signed with the Jets. The Lions did sign G/C Wesley Johnson, ironically from the Jets but he doesn’t really satisfy the team need. Johnson is a former tackle who moved inside for the NFL, he’s not a true center. Neither is guard Graham Glasgow who would project as the starting center for Detroit this year if they don’t address the position. While doing some research on Daniels, I came across this highlight where he owns a BC linebacker and I couldn’t help but watch it a number of times. Daniels came in smaller than some of the other top center prospects but he showed his supreme agility by owning the competition in the shuttle and 3-cone.

#50 – Cowboys – D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland

There’s been a number of rumors that the Cowboys are considering a wide receiver with their first pick, specifically Calvin Ridley I think that would be a mistake, even though Ridley is my highest rated receiver, and sincerely hope they continue to add to their already-strong offensive line instead. I’d much rather see the Cowboys wait, full disclosure that I’m a fan, and grab a receiver at this pick. I have Anthony Miller ranked higher in my rankings at the moment but I think that Moore is the more likely selection for the ‘Boys. Per WalterFootball.com, Moore has met with the Cowboys on multiple occasions. Moore was not on my watch list to start the season but by the end of it he had worked his way into my positional rankings. Moore is quick (4.42 speed) and explosive (first among WRs in the broad jump, second in the vertical) and runs with purpose once he has the ball in his hands. He had awful quarterback play at Maryland so the fact that he performed as well as he did at times is impressive. In my preview of Moore, I called him a “trick play master” which could come in handy when the Cowboys offense becomes predictably run-heavy.

#49 – Colts – Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

I believe there’s zero chance that the Colts head into training camp with just Marlon Mack, Christine Michael, Josh Ferguson, Robert Turbin and Matt Jones competing for running back reps. They are a lock to add a running back in the first few rounds. Mack should be the favorite to come out of that group but I don’t think he’s able to be a bellcow and none of the journeyman inspire confidence. Chubb was pegged as the top back of this class years ago as a freshman but he has since fallen down the rankings due to an ACL injury and sharing the spotlight with Sony Michel. I still prefer Chubb to Michel as a pro prospect but I do admit that Chubb’s running style likely means he’ll serve a shorter career. Chubb had three 1,000+ yard seasons and averaged 6.3 yards per carry over 47 games. His 44 career rushing TDs are fourth most in the SEC since 1956, per Sports-Reference. Chubb is not a receiving back but that’s okay because that’s Mack’s strength. The biggest knock on Chubb is his ACL injury from 2016. I’m not that concerned because he returned and completed two full seasons since then, even if he has lost some of his pop. Having a formidable running back duo will help Andrew Luck get back into form because the team will not have to rely solely on him to move the offense.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: 2018 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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2018 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v2.1

By Bob Cowper

Updated: January 27th 2018

My first 2018 rookie mock draft was published back on Sept 6 and while some things have changed, I am actually quite pleased with how my mock draft held up throughout the season. I followed the same guidelines here as I did back in September. Namely, I used two base assumptions: 1) a standard one QB roster setup and 2) any junior good enough to be considered will declare early (the deadline is Jan 15 so by the time you read this we may already know that some guys are not going into the draft). Players are broken down into tiers and I have noted where they were mocked last time to show their movement from version to version. To view version 1.0, click here. Version 2.0 never saw the light of day as Bryce Love, Damien Harris and Myles Gaskin decided to return to school before publishing (for what it’s worth they were at 1.09, 2.06 and 2.09 respectively). I also compile mock draft information for the /r/DynastyFF sub Reddit which you can view here. Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @robertfcowper.

1.01, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (last: 1.01)

Barkley is in a tier all by himself. He’s a supreme athlete (possibly sub-4.40 speed) with good vision and is a good pass catcher. He’ll be the consensus first pick in just about every fantasy rookie draft and could be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick. Don’t overthink it.

1.02, Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (1.03)

1.03, Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (1.02)

(Note: this was written prior to Nick Chubb’s poor performance in the championship game. In hindsight, I am less confident about placing him at 1.02. One game does not a career make but still he played poorly against a defense full of NFL talent. I will re-visit this in the offseason) I now have Chubb and Guice flipped compared to where I had them to start the season. Heading into the season, Chubb’s 2015 knee injury felt like more of a concern than it does now since he has completed two full seasons since. Their stats this season were similar but Chubb had a slight edge as a rusher (1,320 yards and 15 TDs for Chubb, 1,251 and 11 TDs for Guice). Neither is a receiver like Barkley. Both backs have a career high of 18 receptions in a season – Guice did so in 2017 while Chubb did so as a freshman in 2014. The margin between the two for me is razor thin. I lean towards Chubb since we have a bigger sample size.

1.04, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama (1.04)

1.05, James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State (1.08)

1.06, Ronald Jones, RB, USC (2.07)

I still have Ridley as my WR1 even though 2017 was not a great season (just 59 receptions, 935 yards and 4 TDs prior to the championship game). To my eye, he is just the most skilled WR in the class, regardless of his production. He is very fast (4.35 40 yard dash in the Spring), jumps well enough to out play his 6’1″ height and is a good route runner. Washington is pretty quick himself but he just doesn’t seem as polished as Ridley. It’s hard to argue against Washington’s production but I think he’ll be drafted later than Ridley and won’t be as good of a pro in the long run. Washington is this high though because I think he will make an early impact in the league if he lands on the right team. Jones makes a huge jump from 2.07 to 1.06. I questioned his size to start the year, I thought he was too tall for his weight, but am no longer as concerned because he put on some weight. He’s such a quick and fast runner and was very productive this year (1,550 yards, 19 TDs). If he was a little more “squat” but just as fast and nimble he’d be challenging for the 1.02.

1.07, Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (undrafted)

1.08, Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU (1.07)

Rashaad Penny made a huge impression on me this season. I noticed Penny in August but thought he was more of a returner than a running back. He proved his worth as a rusher (his 2,248 yards led the FBS) but still managed to contribute as a return man (3 return TDs). Penny will probably be an early Day Three draft selection but I think his value as a return man will help him see the field earlier. Bryce Love originally found himself in this tier before deciding to return to school. Conversely to the ascending Penny, Sutton’s stock is falling for me. Sutton has the best size of the top three receivers (6’4, 215lbs) but I have some concerns. In my past research, I found that he mostly beat up on bad defenses; against the best defense he played this year (TCU), he was held to one catch for zero yards. It also bothers me that Sutton was not the leading receiver on his team this year (Trey Quinn had more receptions, yards and touchdowns). Sutton likely saw extra defensive attention but if he’s to be an NFL star, he must be able to dominate even against double coverage in games against lesser defenses. Interesting stat for Sutton, 8 of his 31 career receiving touchdowns came in three games against North Texas. I want to see him at the combine – if he comes in smaller than advertised he could fall out of my first round.

1.09, Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon (1.07)

1.10, Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis (2.02)

2.01, Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (2.06)

2.02, Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (1.05)

This tier features some of my favorite players in the draft in terms of value. I was high on Freeman to start the season before he came out on fire (10 TDs in the first four games). His pace slowed in the middle of the season but he finished strong too with 6 TDs in the games against Arizona and Oregon State. He decided to skip the bowl which was disappointing because I wanted to see him against Boise State’s defense. Despite the positive impression he made on me, I do have him a little lower now because he was jumped by Ronald Jones and Rashaad Penny at the position. Two players who did not skip the end of their seasons are Anthony Miller and Sony Michel. Miller is an absolute gamer who I want on my team. He’s not that big or that fast but he’s just productive. He runs routes well and has possibly the best hands in the class. He could have broken his leg in the AAC Championship game and he would have still finished the overtime. It may be a bit of a reach but I’m willing to take Miller at the end of the first to guarantee I get him. Michel is sometimes overshadowed by Chubb but he’s just as good in his own right. He has two 1,000+ yard seasons to his name and a career 6.1 yards per carry average. He is a better receiver than his 9 receptions in 2017 show. In 2015 and 2016 he had 48 combined. The hype on Michel is growing so you may not be able to get him at 2.01 but let’s not overreact to two nationally televised games. Michel will be a solid pro but I’m not willing to jump him over Chubb. Kirk dropped because I was probably too high on him originally but I still like him. He’s a great return man but so many of his receptions come at the line of scrimmage that I worry his NFL role may be limited.

2.03, Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (2.08)

2.04, Sam Darnold, QB, USC (2.01)

This is where my RSO mock will diverge slightly from a true dynasty mock. I strongly believe that going quarterback early in the second round of your rookie mock is the way to go. The salary paid will be less than $2mil per season which is a fantastic bargain for a starting quarterback, especially considering that most quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft will see game action sometime in the first season. The return on investment here is so high when you “hit” that it’s worth taking a chance on a “miss.” Readers will notice that 1) Rosen has jumped Darnold and 2) I am taking the QBs a little later now. Neither guy had a great season and they both come with some warts so I think this spot feels right. Even if Darnold gets drafted higher, barring some crazy trade that lands him on a good team, I would go with Rosen first as I feel he is more NFL-ready and will realize more value during his four year RSO rookie contract.

2.05, Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame (2.03)

2.06, Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa (undrafted)

2.07, Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State (3.07)

This was a very tough stretch for me to rank. I originally included Myles Gaskin and Damien Harris in this tier but they are now removed as they seek a higher grade next year. St. Brown dropped between mocks because he only had 33 receptions. Like Calvin Ridley, he was the leading receiver on a run-heavy offense. I didn’t count that against Ridley but I do against St. Brown because it’s tough to invest highly in a guy with just 92 career receptions. St. Brown would have dropped further if it weren’t for the decisions of Love and Harris ahead of him. Wadley and Gallup mostly stayed under the radar this season but move up in my rankings even though their per-touch averages decreased. They both significantly increased the number of touches they handled this season and played well in their biggest games. Gallup totaled 21 receptions and 282 yards in three games against Power 5 defenses (Oregon State, Colorado, Alabama); Wadley had 158 total yards versus Ohio State in what was ultimately the death blow for the Buckeyes’ playoff chances.

2.08, Dante Pettis, WR, Washington (2.04)

2.09, Bo Scarborough, RB, Alabama (1.06)

2.10, Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame (undrafted)

Bringing up the rear of the second round are three Power 5 players that I would be willing to take a shot on despite my concerns about their size. Pettis is a dynamo and can change a game with one touch. He had four punt return touchdowns this year and led the FBS in punt return average. He managed to increase his receptions this year but his per-touch averages decreased. He’s 6’1″ but about 195lbs so he’s a little too light. The fact that his former teammate John Ross was such a bust as a first rounder last year probably hurts Pettis even if it’s not fair. Scarborough and Adams were both productive in college but at 6’2″ they might be too tall to play running back effectively in the NFL. The comps in that size are not favorable. The best is Derrick Henry but other than that it’s a lot of no-name players over the last decade.

3.01, Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (undrafted)

If it makes RSO salary cap sense to take a quarterback near the top of the second, it stands to reason you should at the top of the third. Mayfield is currently my QB3 after an incredibly efficient season but I want to watch more tape. Heading into the season I had both Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson and Luke Falk ranked higher. Right now Rudolph would be the only one I consider putting here instead of Mayfield.

3.02, Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State (undrafted)

3.03, Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State (3.01)

3.04, Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina (3.05)

3.05, Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma (2.10)

Let the tight end run begin! I think everybody would agree that this year’s tight end class pales in comparison to last year but when is the right time to take one? I’m having trouble valuing them so I’ll bet others are too. My guess is that once one goes in your RSO draft, two or three will follow shortly after. Gesicki gets the nod as the top prospect because he’s bigger than both Andrews and Hurst and at least as athletic, if not more. Hurst is more of a traditional TE than the other two as he blocks better but he’s also fast enough and a good pass catcher. I had Hurst above Andrews in my early 2018 positional rankings and will stick with my gut. It takes time for tight ends to develop, Evan Engram notwithstanding, so I’ll knock Andrews down a peg because he so rarely lined up as a tight end in college. Lazard isn’t a TE but he’s a big-bodied receiver who I am a fan of. He was a key part of Iowa State’s miracle run (71-941-10). I wish I was able to find him a spot higher because it feels like I’m down on him compared to start the season but that’s not the case.

3.06, Auden Tate, WR, Florida State (undrafted)

3.07, Simmie Cobbs, WR, Indiana (undrafted)

3.08, Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State (3.04)

3.09, Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville, (undrafted)

3.10, Deon Cain, WR, Clemson (1.10)

Similarly to how I ended the second round, I will end the third round with a group of Power 5 players who I will take a flyer on. Tate has elite size, ball skills and body control but has just 65 career receptions. Cobbs also has elite size but he concerns me. He was suspended to start the 2016 season for “not living up to the responsibilities of the program,” and then subsequently suffered a season ending injury in his first game that year. In the summer of 2017 he was arrested at a concert. He didn’t face any discipline so it’s probably nothing but still I would worry about a pattern of negative behavior. Ballage is a bowling ball at 6’3″ and 230lbs. He is an effective receiver but averages just 4.4 yards per carry in his career. His size concerns me too. It’s hard to find a back with receiving stats like he had in 2016, so with a late third, what the heck. I don’t know enough about Jaylen Smith to properly evaluate him yet but our friends at the Dynasty Command Center are very high on him so I’ll trust their analysis. Smith had a crazy 22.9 yards per reception average in 2016 which was unsustainable (in 2017 it was still a solid 16.3). Deon Cain is another player who concerns me off the field. After a failed drug test, Clemson suspended him in 2015 for both of their College Football Playoff games and continued to hold him out through Spring practice. He lead the Tigers in yards (734) and TDs (6) this season but I was hoping for more now that he was out of Mike Williams’ shadow.

Honorable Mentions

4.01, Richie James, WR, Middle Tennessee State (undrafted)

4.02, Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State (undrafted)

4.03, Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State (undrafted)

4.04, Adam Breneman, TE, UMass (undrafted)

4.05, Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn (undrafted)

4.06, Deontay Burnett, WR, USC (undrafted)

4.07, Jalin Moore, RB, Appalachian State (undrafted)

4.08, Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State (undrafted)

4.09, Jaylen Samuels, TE, North Carolina State (undrafted)

4.10, Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville (undrafted)

Guys who I like but couldn’t find space for yet: Ryan Finley, Ito Smith, Jordan Chunn, Cedric Wilson, Antonio Callaway, Troy Fumagali

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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