Week 11 Street FA Report

Updated: November 16th 2021

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

D’Onta Foreman, RB – TEN (Owned 21%)

Week 10: 11 Car/30 yards, 2 Rec/48 yards

Much like Atlanta at the beginning of the season, it appears that we were once again bamboozled by a team signing a (perceived) better option at the running back position and assuming they were going to be taking over the backfield. In reality, coaches always trust the in-house option more, at least in the short term as they are more familiar with their capabilities and comprehension of the playbook. D’Onta Foreman has not done much of anything since being drafted in the third round by Houston in 2017 and his Achilles injury in 2018 seemed like the end before the beginning. But he has hung around the league and now has the opportunity in front of him to audition for a bigger role with another team in 2022. Foreman led the Titans in carries in week 10 with eleven (11) and we know that the Titans’ offense centers around a strong runner with a focus on a strong running game. He will never present Derrick Henry’s level of upside but a team that expects to be in or leading most games this season should see a steady floor of touches.

Suggested Bid: $5,500,000

RB Add

Wayne Gallman, RB – ATL (Owned 19%)

Week 10: 15 Car/55 yards, 1 Rec/21 yards

Speaking of Atlanta, the absence of Cordarelle Patterson from much of week 10’s game, coupled with an upcoming week 11 Thursday night game presents the spot start opportunity for Wayne Gallman if Patterson is unable to go. Despite not seeing more than 10 snaps in any previous week, Arthur Smith gave Gallman more opportunities, 43% snap share and 16 touches, than Mike Davis. Davis’ usage was dwarfed by Gallman as he only had four (4) touches. Patterson’s injury will likely not keep him out for long if he did miss Thursday so do not break the bank for Gallman. But he has flex appeal in week 10 and is worth monitoring till we find out more about Patterson.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

WR Add

DeAndre Carter, WR – WAS (Owned 9%)

Week 10: 3 Rec/56 yards, 1 TD

DeAndre Carter made the most of his opportunity with Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown out for week 10’s game. He scored a touchdown for a second consecutive week while playing on 70 percent of the snaps for Washington. Carter’s value is directly tied to the health and availability of those two (2) players above him on the depth chart as either being the lineup has cut his snap rate below 20 percent in five (5) of Washington’s other eight (8) games this season. He is not more than a last-minute WR5/6 option if either is declared out on game day but in very deep leagues Carter is one to monitor.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Jack Stoll, TE – PHI (Owned 1%)

Week 10: 2 Rec/6 yards

The Holiest of Hail Mary options at the tight end position in week 11 but if Dallas Goedert is forced to miss this week’s game for Philadelphia next man up is undrafted rookie Jack Stoll out of Nebraska. The rookie saw 66 percent of the snaps in week 10 and other than fellow rookie DeVonta Smith there is no other target hog in this Philadelphia offense that would command an increase in their target volume. Goedert’s share of 4-6  targets would likely be the same with whoever his replacement is. The team will continue to focus on the running game but who says Stoll is any worse than some of the other options we have had to start at the tight end position this season?

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Patrick Taylor, RB – GB (Owned <1%)

Week 10: 2 Car/7 yards

The fantasy community knows that whether it’s Mike McCarthy or Matt LaFleur the Green Bay coaching staff wants to include multiple running backs in their offense. AJ Dillon looked good with Aaron Jones out of the game and he is likely to continue to see a strong amount of touches over the next couple of weeks. Fellow rookie Kylin Hill is already unavailable due to his own injury which leaves Patrick Taylor as the only other available option for the Packers right now at running back behind Dillon. Taylor is the quintessential sleeper addition being available in virtually every league (<99%) this week. We will see what role he can play as the second option once the coaching staff builds a game plan for this week. He could be a cheap sign now before he shows anything that could increase his value heading into Thanksgiving week.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 1 Street FA Report

Updated: September 6th 2021

Welcome back to another (hopefully) great fantasy season RSO managers! With week one (1) starting Thursday, the 5th year of the Street FA Report is ready to get back to business.  As always, each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Wayne Gallman, RB – ATL (Owned 46%)

The offseason saw the fantasy community debate whether the Falcons were going to sign, draft, or trade for running back to either compete or supplant Mike Davis as their primary rusher. The draft, OTAs, and even training camp and preseason went by without the Falcons doing anything else to address the position. Thus, Davis probably has a strong chance to be a workhorse running back in 2021. However, if you want to hedge that bet the Falcons added Wayne Gallman after roster cutdowns which has reinvigorated the conversation of how much the Falcons believe in Davis. Gallman had several fantasy-relevant games last season in relief of Saquon Barkley for the Giants that if new Head Coach Arthur Smith started to used Gallman more as he familiarized himself with the playbook it would not be a shock to some. If Gallman has a strong presence in week 1 do not be surprised if he is also week 2’s Add of the Week, but for an inflated price.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

 

RB Adds

Carlos Hyde, RB – JAX (Owned 39%)

Congrats to those who doubled down on James Robinson after many had cooled on him with Urban Meyer drafting Clemon running back Travis Etienne in the first round. Robinson finished as the RB7 in PPR last year and should be a safe RB2 once again in 2021. We know that injuries and a change in coaching staff can wreak havoc on a running back’s value though and Meyer brought in his old Ohio State tailback Carlos Hyde to compliment Robinson in the backfield. Hyde has not been the model of health himself, having only played in all 16 games twice in seven (7) seasons. He is only two (2) seasons removed from his only career 1,000 yard rushing season however and he presents a much better option behind Robinson than anything the Jaguars had last year. He would be a deep stash right now in case anything was to happen to Robinson early in the season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Jaret Patterson, RB – WAS (Owned 42%)

Rhamondre Stevenson has been the late-round running back that seems to have everyone’s eye during the preseason but under the radar has been Jaret Patterson in Washington who has received a heavy workload from Ron Rivera and his coaching staff. Though Antonio Gibson took virtually all the first-team snaps when the starters were playing, and J.D. McKissic will continue his role as a favourite to lead the NFL in running back targets again, Patterson seems to be the next man up for either if they were to go down. Ryan Fitzpatrick should make this offense better in 2021 which means there will be plenty of opportunities for scoring chances and long drives for Patterson to continue carving out a role. As for now he seems to be an option for Rivera as a returner on Special Teams but could have value later in the season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

 

WR Adds

Tyrell Williams, WR – DET (Owned 40%)

It was maybe a surprise to some that the Lions, despite their depleted talent at wide receiver, would release veteran Breshad Perriman but they must not have felt his salary brought in the value it deserved. This leaves Tyrell Williams as the stalwart veteran atop the depth chart to begin the season now for new starting quarterback Jared Goff. There are more alluring receivers in Detroit’s arsenal such as rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, but Williams is most likely to produce fantasy points right now. A team’s WR1 is available in over half of leagues and although the Lions are not a fantasy powerhouse, volume is king and Williams should see lots of it to start the season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Josh Reynolds, WR – TEN (Owned 35%)

Frequent readers of the Street FA Report will know my infatuation with Josh Reynolds and how I just cannot quit on the guy. Reynolds was poised to break out after leaving the Rams to join the Titans opposite A.J. Brown but with the team trading for Julio Jones shortly after, his breakout likely hits pause for now. However, neither Brown nor Jones have been the model of healthy over the last two (2) seasons and if lingering injuries were to crop up again Reynolds would be in a prime spot in what should be a highly successful offense in 2021. Sitting on Reynolds might not be a bad idea as the season grows longer and the fatigue and injuries of a longer season start to kick in.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Tyler Kroft, TE – NYJ (Owned 13%)

The Jets finally put to bed the decision on if Chris Herndon was ever going to produce his breakout season at tight end for them when they traded him to Minnesota ahead of cut downs this preseason. This leaves Tyler Kroft as the de facto starter for the newly redesigned Jets team under Robert Saleh. Kroft and second overall selection Zach Wilson had a strong connection in the preseason, connecting for two (2) touchdowns in the second game together. If you are an owner who plays the waivers each week for tight ends Kroft might be one of the more consistent streamers to have this season depending on the success of Wilson and the Jets’ offense.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

 

Sleeper Add <25%

Kendrick Bourne, WR – NE (Owned 18%)

The Patriots spent big in the offseason and with their spending spree the team brought in two (2) under-the-radar receivers to hopefully help with their atrocious passing game in 2020. Nelson Agholor is expected to co-manage the majority of targets along with Jacobi Meyers but the release of Cam Newton leaves Kendrick Bourne as another interesting option for Josh McDaniels around the goal line. In San Francisco, Bourne was notorious for vulturing touchdowns away from other receivers scoring on 10 percent and 16 percent of his receptions in 2018 and 2019. Bill Belichick always has specific uses for specific players and it would not be surprising if both Agholor and Meyers receive double the targets and yardage as Bourne, but had similar if not fewer touchdowns. With Newton no longer available to QB-sneak, it may open the door for Bourne to have niche fantasy in deep receiver leagues.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 8 Street FA Report

Updated: October 27th 2020

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Antonio Brown, WR – TB (Owned 55%)

Week 7: N/A

The week has finally arrived for what is probably the biggest name to ever be featured on the Street FA Report in the four (4) years of this series. Never does a former 6-time 100-catch receiver become available mid-way through an NFL season but because of some well documented off the field issues that is where we find Antonio Brown. To add to the allure of Brown reuniting with Tom Brady is the fact that a lot of Tampa Bay’s receiving core is banged up with injuries, so his return on investment could be massive right out of the gate. Their fantasy playoffs schedule is also a juicy one with Minnesota, Atlanta, and Detroit. Whether you are contending or rebuilding, every manager will be putting in a claim for Brown. Congratulations to whoever has the highest cap space in the other half of leagues where he is available.

Suggested Bid: EVERYTHING

RB Add

Wayne Gallman, RB – NYG (Owned 21%)

Week 7: 10 Car/34 yards, 1 TD, 5 Rec/20 yards

Wayne Gallman’s value is completely at the mercy of whether or not Devonta Freeman is healthy enough to play this week as the Giants’ offense is not strong enough to support multiple running backs in fantasy. If Freeman is out, however, Gallman appears to be in line for much of the backfield touches as he heavily out-snapped and out-touched Dion Lewis once Freeman left in week 7. The Giants do not play till Monday night so it will be difficult to know for sure what Freeman’s availability will be before having to make a decision. In PPR leagues Gallman could be a long shot RB3 since this week’s game against the Buccaneers could lend to a lot of pressured screens and check down plays from Daniel Jones.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

 

JaMycal Hasty, RB – SF (Owned 46%)

Week 7: 9 Car/57 yards, 1 Rec/16 yards

Without a preseason to evaluate undrafted rookies in-game it was always going to be difficult for a player like JaMycal Hasty to see significant playing time right away. His chance is right in front of him now though as the 49ers backfield has been decimated with injuries. We do not know how healthy Jerrick McKinnon is as he was sparingly used last week against the Patriots, by design apparently, and there is talk that Tevin Coleman could return from the IR after week 8. It is not a great matchup this week as the Seahawks have been more prone to the pass than the run but if Hasty has a strong performance this week it could open the door to opportunities for the rest of the season. He is a long shot add at this point.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

 WR Add

Nelson Agholor, WR – LV (Owned 37%)

Week 7: 5 Rec/107 yards, 1 TD

Some players just need to land with a new team that can better utilize their skillset before they can rebound in fantasy. In the last three (3) games Nelson Agholor has caught a touchdown and averaged 17 PPR points per game after being a cast-off in Philadelphia the last couple of years. On the broadcast, they talked about how the Raiders coaching staff saw him and his speed in practice and decided to move him outside after the Eagles used him primarily in the slot. It is paying off as he had long touchdowns in each of the last two games and would have had a third in the Saints game week 2 if not for a penalty calling it back. If his target share could rise to a steadier amount like this past week, Agholor could become a more consistent WR3 the way he has been these last three weeks.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

 TE Add

Harrison Bryant, TE – CLE (Owned 22%)

Week 7: 4 Rec/56 yards, 2 TD

Austin Hooper was scratched late last week after needing emergency appendectomy surgery. Odell Beckham Jr. then left after two offensive plays to what is now a season-ending ACL injury. In their absence the rookie tight end Harrison Bryant saw his most snaps thus far and also played ahead of David Njoku who many thought was going to be a plug-and-play option last week. Bryant had two touchdowns and finished as the TE1 in week 7 meaning that if Hooper was to miss another week he could be a strong streaming option this week. It is also well documented that Head Coach Kevin Stefanski plays two tight ends a lot, fifth-most 1-2 personnel and second-most 2-2 personnel in 2020. Even once Hooper returns with the rumors that Njoku may want a trade, Bryant could see a second-half emergence.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

Sleeper Add

Rashard Higgins, WR – CLE (Owned 8%)

Week 7: 6 Rec/110 yards

For the reasons I listed Harrison Bryant as a player to add to the scouting list this week we should also be watching what the team does with their wide receivers with Odell Beckham Jr. now out of the lineup. Rashard Higgins has been operating as the WR3 much of the past three (3) weeks and Baker Mayfield seemed to finally be able to work the ball around to multiple receivers once Beckham went out. Both he and Donavan Peoples-Jones should operate as the WR2 behind Jarvis Landry. If you can make it to your semi-finals and finals as well, the Browns play both New York teams. Borat would say, “Very Nice” to that.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

2017 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v3.0

Updated: August 23rd 2017

This August update was the hardest mock I have done so far for RSO (including my first 2018 mock which is yet to be published).  It’s easy to fall into the trap of weighting preseason action too heavily so I tried to fight that urge as much as .  I’m sure you will disagree with a number of these picks and I’d like to hear about it @robertfcowper on Twitter.  Please note, I am writing this before the third week of preseason games which is typically when we see the most “realistic” preseason football and you’ll likely be reading it during or after those games.

1.01 – LEONARD FOURNETTE, RB, JAGUARS
1.02 – COREY DAVIS, WR, TITANS
1.03 – CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, RB, PANTHERS

I’ve had Fournette and Davis as my 1.01 and 1.02, in that order, from the beginning and don’t plan to change them now. Fournette’s value may be negatively impacted by QB Blake Bortles if he continues to struggle like he has so far in the preseason and Davis’s injury hurts his immediate value slightly. Neither falls behind McCaffrey for me, but McCaffrey’s solid preseason work pushes him into a close third in my first tier. If you need a RB over WR, I wouldn’t fault you for getting caught up in the CMC hype at 1.02.

1.04 – DALVIN COOK, RB, VIKINGS
1.05 – JOE MIXON, RB, BENGALS

In addition to moving McCaffrey out of this tier, I decided to flip-flop Cook and Mixon. Mixon may end up with the more productive career over time but on RSO we are drafting for more immediate production as rookie contracts are only three or four years long. Cook has an easier route to RB1 touches with Latavius Murray in front of him rather than Mixon who has Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard to battle.

1.06 – ZAY JONES, WR, BILLS

I was high on Zay previously having him at 1.10 but since July his stock has risen due to personnel moves in Buffalo. Sammy Watkins was traded, Jordan Matthews was acquired and Anquan Boldin signed and promptly retired. Ultimately that’s a net positive for Jones. The Bills won’t be great, but neither was East Carolina.

1.07 – OJ HOWARD, TE, BUCS

Howard stays the course here at 1.07. I haven’t seen or heard anything that encourages me to move him up or down yet.  Don’t forget to grab Cameron Brate too because like most rookie TEs he will need time to develop.

1.08 – KAREEM HUNT, RB, CHIEFS
1.09 – D’ONTA FOREMAN, RB, TEXANS

Foreman has had better success so far during the preseason but I think Hunt has a higher ceiling for the near future. Even if Hunt can’t beat out Spencer Ware for the starting role, he will have value in the passing game. Foreman could see short yardage work so a line of 350 yards but 6-7 TDs wouldn’t be surprising. I originally put players like David Njoku and John Ross ahead these two because of their upside but I’m leaning more towards the sure thing as we get closer to the season.

1.10 – MIKE WILLIAMS, WR, CHARGERS

In true dynasty formats, Williams should not fall this far. However, in our RSO format, there’s a good chance you lose out on 20-30% of Williams’ rookie contract due to his current injuries. His ceiling is higher than that of Jones, Howard, Hunt and Foreman but his floor is lower.

2.01 – ALVIN KAMARA, RB, SAINTS

I’ve hated on Kamara a lot. It’s time to move him up my list though. So far this preseason he has just nine carries but they have been very productive. He has a 50 yard TD carry and 96 total yards; even if you remove the long carry, Kamara still averages 5.75 yards per carry on his other carries. He’ll also be a factor in the passing game, which like with Hunt, will allow him to offer some value as a rookie even with limited carries.

2.02 – DAVID NJOKU, TE, BROWNS

The bloom might be off the rose for Njoku. A report from a few weeks ago showed coach Hue Jackson’s frustration at Njoku’s hands. Plus he suffered an ankle injury in Monday’s game against the Giants (too soon as of this writing to know if it’s serious). He’s still an athletic freak with high upside so he’s worth a speculative pick at the top of the second.

2.03 – JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, WR, STEELERS
2.04 – SAMAJE PERINE, RB, REDSKINS

JJSS has just one catch and one carry so far but battled a minor injury to start camp. Perine has 14 carries so far (plus one 29 yard catch). I have not heard any glowing camp reports about either guy so they are basically holding steady despite being on crowded depth charts.

2.05 – MITCHELL TRUBISKY, QB, BEARS
2.06 – PATRICK MAHOMES, QB, CHIEFS
2.07 – DESHAUN WATSON, QB, TEXANS

I’m hedging my bet by putting all three of these quarterbacks together at this point but I truly believe the value in RSO drafts is too good to pass up. To lock up these rising stars for three or four years on a cheap contract is just a huge advantage. Sure, the guy you take has to “hit” but that’s the case with all of these rookies. I am a huge Mahomes fan and am encouraged by his 73% completion percentage and 3 TDs so far but it’s hard to ignore how good Trubisky has looked too and he has a better chance of starting Week 1. Watson will likely win the starting job but I have not been a fan of his so I’d rather take Mahomes and wait.

2.08 – JOHN ROSS, WR, BENGALS
2.09 – EVAN ENGRAM, TE, GIANTS
2.10 – CURTIS SAMUEL, RB, PANTHERS

These three have fallen significantly in my eyes. Ross, no surprise, has been injured. 2.08 might be harsh for Ross but I won’t own any shares of him this season if I have to take him in the first. I’m still worried about Engram’s lack of size and whether he can earn enough snaps at WR behind OBJ, Marshall and Shepard (although recent injuries to those three could linger and open the door). Samuel is supposed to be a “jack of all trades” type but until I see him in action and that the Panther’s offense can support him and CMC, he’ll be a “master of none” for me.

3.01 – TAYWAN TAYLOR, WR, TITANS
3.02 – KENNY GOLLADAY, WR, LIONS
3.03 – COOPER KUPP, WR, RAMS
3.04 – CHRIS GODWIN, WR, BUCS
3.05 – DEDE WESTBROOK, WR, JAGUARS

This group of receivers was tough to sort and I made a number of changes before settling on this. Westbrook and Golladay join the mock based off the success they have had in limited action thus far this preaseason. Westbrook had a single catch for a 42 yard touchdown in his first game and followed that with 6-131. Golladay started strong with a 3-53-2 game against the Colts and fell to just one reception for six yards against the Jets. Westbrook has off-field concerns and is likely a terrible human being but if he can ignite a stagnant Jaguars offense he’ll get some looks. Golladay’s hype train is speeding out of the station with plenty of hangers-on but I’m not ready to push him that high in my rankings after four NFL receptions. The other three receivers were in my original mock: Taylor and Godwin down a few picks and Kupp moved up. I still believe in Taylor who has taken advantage of Corey Davis missing time in camp and in the preseason and has 7 for 97 yards; pushing the QBs higher means Taylor falls to the third through no fault of his own. Kupp has a 8-105-1 line through two games. Sammy Watkins coming to town kills any hope of Kupp being the lead target for Jared Goff but he should beat out Robert Woods, et al by midseason. I’m disappointed so far by Godwin who has caught just three of his six targets. I am still hopeful that all of the attention devoted to Mike Evans, DJax and OJ Howard mean Godwin will have sneaky production.

3.06 – MARLON MACK, RB, COLTS
3.07 – WAYNE GALLMAN, RB, GIANTS

Signing Christine Michael this offseason threw some cold water on my Mack ranking.  Why sign a journeyman like Michael to a crowded backfield after drafting Mack?  Michael ended up getting hurt and is out for the season, but Mack was banged up too and missed the start of the preseason. Frank Gore and Robert Turbin can carry the load to start the season so the Colts might take it slow with Mack. Encouragingly, he did have seven touches for 49 yards in his first game action. I’ve had a man crush on Gallman since I started researching the 2016 Clemson Tigers and I haven’t given it up yet, although I continue to drop Gallman down my mock draft (2.09 to 3.05 to 3.07). I don’t believe in Paul Perkins and I’m not sure the Giants do either since they have more draft capital invested in Gallman than Perkins.

3.08 – JAKE BUTT, TE, BRONCOS
3.09 – DESHONE KIZER, QB, BROWNS

The true value of these two players will come down to when they get on the field. I rank them here with the expectation that they will start a majority of the season for their teams. Butt would have been a first round NFL talent if he wasn’t injured – he’s good value here. This late in your rookie draft, Kizer represents good value too even if he’s just QB28 at the end of the season. I’d rather lock these guys up on cheap long-term contracts now before their value crests in my auction draft (if it’s announced that they will be starting Week 1) or in free agency (if they get on the field a little later).

3.10 – TARIK COHEN, RB, BEARS

Cohen has impressed in this first two weeks of the preseason. His size is worrisome (he’s just 5’6″ and 180lbs) but it hasn’t hindered him yet. Cohen leads rookie RBs in yards (181) and leads the Bears backs in attempts (18). His size will keep him from being a workhorse in the NFL but he will have a role. It’s interesting to note that the Bears invested a higher draft pick in Cohen (4th round) than Jordan Howard (5th), even after Howard’s great rookie season.


Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, ESPN’s First Draft podcast, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

Rookie Undervalued/Overvalued

Updated: July 23rd 2017

One of the great things about fantasy football is the wide range of opinions on rookies coming into the NFL. This week I join fellow RSO writers Nick Andrews and Robert Cowper analyzing a few rookies my compatriots feel the fantasy community is too high on or is not getting the attention they deserve. Be sure to read the other great takes from Nick and Robert on Reality Sports Online.

Undervalued

Nick – Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers

During the draft process, I read a one-on-one interview where Williams explained his 1-year leave from BYU as well as his misdemeanor charge. Needless to say, his actions were something that we all did as 19 and 20-year-old males and should not be held against his skillset. In fact, I think they refocused his passion for playing football. He’s ranked as the 29th rookie on DLF, behind players such as Wayne Gallman and D’Onta Foreman. He fits what Eddie Lacy was during his first two seasons as a physical runner that can dominate inside the red zone. Unlike Lacy, he has the ability to play on passing downs depending on what role Ty Montgomery has as the main passing down back. In a format like RSO where rookies are asked to produce more quickly because of the contract limitations, I have Williams ranked as my 11th player (pushing TEs further down). You can likely get him at a discount and wait until the middle of the second and early third. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger at the start of the second though as I am predicting Williams to be this season’s Jordan Howard of value.

My take:  Solid producer at BYU with average NFL size, bottom tier athleticism, and little passing game production.  Williams displays more power than his size and athleticism dictates and very good running instincts on interior lanes.  Opportunity exists with a wide open depth chart containing only former wide receiver Ty Mongomery and two other running backs drafted later than Williams.  The Packer situation premium is overstated a little at this point though.  Green Bay moved to a more Rodgers-centric passing attack trending downward in rushing attempts the last four seasons  finishing 29th last year.  Williams is going off the board as the 21st player in June MFL rookie drafts.  This is about right for a solid but limited player with a good opportunity to assume a two down role on a high powered Green Bay offense.

Robert – Wayne Gallman, RB, New York Giants

My choice for the player currently being underrated and under drafted is RB Wayne Gallman from the Giants. I became a fan of Gallman’s during Clemson’s championship season last year.  In my National Championship preview, I said that Gallman was a “slasher of a running back who I feel would be at home in a zone-running scheme.” Unfortunately, Gallman didn’t luck out with his destination’s scheme but I still think he can be successful.  Gallman has good size at 6’0″ 215lb but had a disappointing combine which dragged down his real life and fantasy value despite great college production.  He was essentially a three year starter and put up just under 4,000 total yards on 741 touches.  He also stayed healthy and out of the headlines over those three years which is more than you can say about many of the more talented RBs ahead of him. DLF has Gallman ranked as the 22nd best rookie which is actually higher than the 25th that I ranked him.  The surprising part though is his ADP: I had him at 25 in my mock draft but DLF’s ADP has him at 36.0.  The hate has officially gone too far.  That ADP has him behind question marks like Ishmael Zamora, Kenny Golloday and Aaron Jones.  Gallman will start the season on the depth chart behind sophomore Paul Perkins.  Perkins won the job late in the season, ending with four straight double digit carry games.  His production in those games was disappointing though: 62 carries, 271 yards, 2 receptions, 9 yards, 0 TDs.  That’s why the Giants invested a fourth round pick in Gallman, which is actually a higher pick than the fifth rounder used on Perkins in 2016.  To my eye, Perkins is JAG (just a guy) and won’t last as the unquestioned starter in New York.  I’ll be investing in Gallman with the hope that he realizes some value in 2017 and heads into 2018 atop the depth chart.

My take:  Gallman brings virtually identical size and athleticism to Williams but plays with less power and shows more passing game skills.  The Giants are another team with little on the depth chart which is currently fronted by Paul Perkins who did very little to impress last season with his opportunities.  New York provides one of the least friendly running back environments in the league with a bad offensive line and an offense which relies heavily on the short passing game with heavy 3 wide receiver sets resulting in small rushing attempt totals under head coach Ben McAdoo.  The Giants have also routinely used a deep committee under McAdoo which limits the carries for all running backs.  Overall, this is a low-upside player in a low-upside committee situation.  Gallman costs very little at his rookie ADP of 33 and makes for one of the cheaper rookie running gambles with a true opportunity for carries early.

Overvalued

Nick – Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis

I understand the excitement of having a young running back in an offense that has Andrew Luck and has been the hot topic landing spot for any rookie RB the last couple drafts. There are two main problems that I have with acquiring Mack in his current state: lack of draft value and scheme misalignment. Starting with the draft value, before being selected by Indianapolis Mack was ranked in with an ADP in the 30’s. Since then his value has risen to 20th on DLF but has been drafted between 17th and 13th in three of my RSO leagues. Every draft there are players that get pulled up after being selected based on land spot and lose any sleeper value that they had as a late 2nd or 3rd round pick because their acquiring price becomes a high 2nd or maybe even a 1st round pick. I would rather take two or three shots at drafting a valuable RB (such as Jamaal Williams) later in the draft than climbing the board to acquire what was a nice 3rd round pick in March.

The second reason I am avoiding Mack in drafts is that his skillset does not align with how the Colts offense is built right now. Mack was a player that could make big plays when he was able to move downhill and use his elusiveness to make defenders miss. Despite his elusiveness, however, he doesn’t break tackles and only gains minimal yards after contact. This is fine if you play behind Dallas’ or Oakland’s offensive lines that give 3-5 yards before contact. Instead, Mack is playing behind the Colts’ line which is one of the worst in the league and therefore will not be offering consistent holes for Mack to find. Mack also has an awful 54:1 fumble ratio in college that could limit his number of touches and plays until he can be more reliable. Overall I think Mack would be a good pick ONLY IF you can acquire him at the start of the 3rd round, which at this point is highly unlikely. He will become easy enough to acquire 12 months from now when owners are frustrated that he wasn’t able to usurp the ageless wonder, Frank Gore. For these reasons, I’m out.

My take:  Mack displays breakaway speed and plus athleticism at a similar size to Williams and Gallman.   Unfortunately, he also possesses the worst football skills among the group.  He routinely misses rushing lanes forcing runs to the outside.  Mack’s reliance on speed worked against low-level college competition but will find far less success in the NFL against much better athletes.  Mack was not asked to do much pass protection in college.  His small hands combined with atrocious ball security led to an abysmal fumble rate in college.  Mack possesses the widest range of outcomes of any player on this list.  His athletic ability could translate to a dangerous weapon for Indianapolis but his lack of ball security and pass protection skills are the type of deficiencies which lead running backs to short careers in the NFL if they are not corrected early.  An ADP of 19 is on the high side for a player with so many question marks.

Robert – Samaje Perine, RB, Washington Redskins

My choice for the player currently being overrated and over drafted is RB Samaje Perine from Washington. According to DynastyLeagueFootball.com, Perine is the 14th ranked rookie and his rookie ADP is 10.50, meaning he’s a first round pick in most leagues.  Personally, I ranked Perine as my 22nd rookie (10th RB); I did bend to consensus a bit and put him at 15 in my most recent mock draft.  The situation in the Redskins backfield gives me pause.  Last offseason, there were times when we thought Matt Jones, Keith Marshall and Rob Kelley each would start the year as the RB1.  Matt Jones’ struggles with ball security and injuries are well documented but he does have the most draft capital invested in him of all these guys.  A season ending injury was the death blow for 2016 combine workout warrior Keith Marshall but maybe he catches some attention again this training camp, or maybe he gets cut in July, who knows.  “Fat Rob” is probably the least skilled of the bunch but his best ability might be his availability.  None of this is even considering established passing down back Chris Thompson who will likely see about 100 touches of his own.  Given the fact that all of the aforementioned backs are, currently, still on the roster, it makes me hesitant to draft Perine.  I believe Perine is the most talented of the four every-down backs, but at this point they all have some reasonable chance to emerge as the starter so I’m going to stay away.

My take:  It is not surprising that my colleagues selected all running backs for their choices in a deep class at the position.  Each back chosen in this article was taken in the fourth round of the NFL draft but their rookie ADP varies from 33 for Gallman all the way up to 8 for Perine.  Perine is easily my favorite back of the group.  He brings true NFL power back size and incredible strength with nice agility for his mass.  Where pass protection is a weakness for most rookies that limits playing time, Perine’s blocking is a strength.   I have little doubt the former Sooner should receive 15 carries a game by the end of year given the Washington depth chart.  As stated by Robert, though, the coaching staff may feel the need to mix in a variety of players.  The problem for Perine is his 8th overall rookie ADP.  This is an extremely hefty price point for a player who will never be even moderately involved in the passing game and will be heavily touchdown dependent in fantasy.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Slicing ’17 Rookie Class into 12 Tiers

Updated: July 23rd 2017

According to a recent poll on our RSO Twitter feed, about 50% of RSO leagues have not yet conducted their rookie drafts.  As you’re continuing your preparation, I’m here to provide my tiered rankings of the top 50 rookies.  Navigating three to four rounds of a rookie draft isn’t easy.  My tiers are designed to help you know when to buy or sell so you can accumulate the best possible rookie class, at great value!

So let’s begin…

Tier 1

1. Corey Davis WR TEN

While Corey Davis may not be quite the same level of prospect as recent 1.01/1.02 picks Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and Todd Gurley, he’s undoubtedly the best prospect in this class and the only receiver I’m willing to bet will be a true NFL #1.  Putting my money where my mouth is, I already have 3 shares and am aiming for more.

Tier 2

2. Joe Mixon RB CIN
3. Christian McCaffrey RB CAR
4. Leonard Fournette RB JAX

To say you can’t go wrong with picks 2, 3, and 4 would be inaccurate. In a few years, all three will have differing values. But at this point, the margins between each are razor-thin.

Consistent with my general strategy, I’m going to often choose the most talented player regardless of their potential non-talent-related downfalls such as injury history, off-the-field issues, etc. I’ll take Joe Mixon at 2.  He’s the only RB in this class that I believe truly has an elite RB1 ceiling. My rankings 3rd and 4th ranked players differ depending on your scoring system. PPR -> Christian McCaffrey. Standard -> Leonard Fournette.

Tier 3

5. Dalvin Cook RB MIN

While a sub-10th percentile SPARQ score terrifies me, Dalvin Cook‘s college tape tells a different story. I firmly believe that he’s the most talented back on the Minnesota Vikings and it isn’t remotely close. How soon he will earn playing time may be another story. He will need to improve drastically in pass-protection and ball security to earn playing time.

After the 1.05 pick, this draft class falls off a cliff. If you’re slated to pick 6th or later in the first round of a rookie draft this year, I’d advise shopping that pick for help now or 2018/2019 picks.

Tier 4

6. Mike Williams WR LAC

Back injuries are scary. Back injuries are especially scary when learning a NFL playbook for this first time, getting acclimated to a NFL playbook, and completing for playing time among a crowded group of talented receivers. Even if he fully recovers from this injury in time for the season, he’s unlikely to contribute in a meaningful way this season. Still my 1.06, I’d only make that pick if I’ve exhausted every trade possible without coming to an agreement. If Mike Williams struggles for playing time, but appears healthy when on the field, he might be a buy-low target at the trade deadline or during the 2018 off-season

For more info on his injury and the potential need for surgery if the non-surgical route doesn’t work, I’d recommend listening to the AUDIBLE LIVE! Podcast from June 8th as Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel on Twitter) provides great insight.

Tier 5

7. Alvin Kamara RB NO
8. John Ross WR CIN
9. David Njoku TE CLE
10. Evan Engram TE NYG
11. Samaje Perine RB WAS
12. O.J. Howard TE TB
13. Kareem Hunt RB KC

Even if he doesn’t develop as an inside runner, Alvin Kamara will still be a very productive pass-catching back in the NFL. The Saints offense is very RB friendly and neither Adrian Peterson or Mark Ingram are locks for the Saints’ 2018 roster.

Love John Ross‘ talent, but hate the landing spot. Andy Dalton isn’t the ideal QB for him, especially behind a poor offensive line that may force them to focus on getting the ball out of his hands quickly.

My tight end rankings are based on my belief in their long-term upside. Love David Njoku‘s talent and his situation isn’t as bad as many believe, especially with the release of Gary Barnidge. Evan Engram should settle in as a big slot receiver, though classified as a TE, for the Giants once they release he can’t handle the typical blocking duties of an in-line TE.

O.J. Howard likely will end up as the best NFL TE, but I’m worried that his talent as a blocker may limit his fantasy potential.

Samaje Perine doesn’t feel like a 1st rounder to me.  I would do everything possible to trade the 1.11 pick for a random 2018 1st. He was graded by many as a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick dynasty rookie pick, but has catapulted into the 1st round due to his promising landing spot in Washington. Betting on him to the next Jordan Howard is dangerous. Barring that type of breakout, I expect Washington to be in play for signing a free agent or drafting a top RB prospect in 2018.

Rounding out this tier is Kareem Hunt – a running back who dazzled on tape, but disappointed at the NFL combine. Joining a Spencer Ware in the Kansas City backfield, many believe Hunt will overtake Ware for the majority of carries by mid-season. I believe this is far from a lock and would expect Ware to lead KC in carries this year, by a 2:1 ratio.

Tier 6

14. JuJu Smith-Schuster WR PIT
15. Chris Godwin WR TB
16. Carlos Henderson WR DEN
17. James Conner RB PIT
18. Zay Jones WR BUF
19. Curtis Samuel WR CAR

Higher on Carlos Henderson than most, I love his ability after the catch. It’s also worth mentioning that aging receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders aren’t long-term barriers to playing time in Denver.

Tier 7

20. Taywan Taylor WR TEN
21. D’Onte Foreman RB HOU
22. Jeremy McNichols RB TB

Loved Taywan Taylor pre-draft and couldn’t have hoped for a much better landing spot.  Great target in the late 2nd or early 3rd round of your draft.

Tier 8

23. Melvin Mack RB IND
24. Kenny Galladay WR DET
25. ArDarius Stewart WR NYJ
26. Gerald Everett TE LAR
27. Joe Williams RB SF
28. Josh Reynolds WR LAR
29. Chad Williams WR ARI

This group includes several recent ADP risers: Kenny Galladay, ArDarius Stewart, Joe Williams, and Chad Williams. In each of my drafts, I want to land several players from this tier.

Tier 10

30. Jamaal Williams RB GB
31. Aaron Jones RB GB
32. Patrick Mahomes QB KC

In both redraft and dynasty, Ty Montgomery is the back I want in Green Bay though it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Packers drafted 3 running backs. If everything breaks right for either rookie back, Williams and Jones could be featured in one of the NFL’s best offenses. That alone makes them solid values in the 3rd round.

If early rookie drafts are any indication, I’m going to be heavily invested in Patrick Mahomes. While he’ll need to be more consistent to succeed at the next level, I can’t help but drool at his raw ability. His landing spot, under Andy Reid’s tutelage, could not be better. Let’s not forget that Andy Reid used to be criticized during his Eagles days for passing too much.  Mahomes will be put into position to not only succeed, but also develop into a QB1 in fantasy.

Tier 11

33. Cooper Kupp WR LAR
34. Wayne Gallman RB NYG
35. Amara Dorboh WR SEA
36. Deshaun Watson QB HOU
37. Adam Shaheen TE CHI
38. DeShone Kizer QB CLE
39. Mitchell Trubisky QB CHI

Tier 12

40. Ishmael Zamora WR OAK
41. Jonnu Smith TE TEN
42. Josh Malone WR CIN
43. Jehu Chessen WR KC
44. Chad Kelly QB DEN
45. Dede Westbrook WR JAX

Tier 13

46. Shelton Gibson WR PHI
47. Jake Butt TE DEN

48. Elijah McGuire RB NYJ
49. Brian Hill RB ATL
50. Donnel Pumphrey RB PHI


Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999.  Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers dynasty and keeper leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each.  Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO

More Analysis by Dave Sanders