IDP Start/Sit: Week 4
Here we are. Week 4. Some of us are celebrating our start, others about to panic. Wherever you land in there, let’s take a breath, focus in on week 4, and find some great options for your lineup to get your team heading towards that playoff birth!
Week 3 Recap
DL:
Start: Greg Rousseau (1 sack, 1 solo) 👍
Sit: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (2 solos) 👍
LB:
Start: Alex Anzalone (4 solos, 1 assist) 👎
Sit: Nick Bolton (Injured)
DB:
Start: Dax Hill (1 sack, 6 solos, 1 assist) 👍
Sit: Kyler Dugger (5 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👎
Week 1 Starts & Sits
START: Za’Darius Smith, Cleveland Browns, DL46 (ED33)
The Cleveland Browns have one of the best defenses to kick off the 2023 season. While Myles Garrett has been on a tear, Smith has been quite productive in his own right, while it has not fully come through on the box score, yet.
He has 9 pressures and 4 QB hits on 73 pass rush snaps. While this has not netted a sack yet, this matchup in week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens. We targeted the Ravens matchup in week 1 for Will Anderson, and for the same reasons, we are doing it again. Lamar has an average time to throw of 2.82 seconds. This matchup along with Smith’s success winning his matchups up front, with a very strong 27.3% win rate in true pass rush sets. This looks like a great week for Za’Darius to notch his first sack of the season.
SIT: Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers, DL25 (ED20)
Gary has done an amazing job coming back from a very serious injury last season and has already shown us what we saw in his limited breakout campaign last season before getting hurt. 4 sacks through his first 3 games, how could we “sit” Gary? Well, in comes the Detroit Lions on Thursday night with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and an offense that appreciates a run/pass balance and focuses on getting the ball out of Goff’s hands (2.56 seconds for his time to throw).
These matchup concerns and a short week for the Packers’ defense could be better and make Gary a bit of a risk to play as a DL2 for me. He is already a limited participant from his own injury, but the potential downgrades across the rest of the defense (Campbell and Jaire) don’t help the overall case either. Gary has the talent to deliver for a lineup still, but I am planning for a bit of down week.
START: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos, LB48
The “King of Tackle Efficiency” has not worn his crown this year while only logging a slightly above-average tackle efficiency of 13.33%. This week, against the Bears, the Broncos linebackers should find a nice bounce-back game as opposing linebackers have had top-10 performances against the Chicago Bears. Also, Josey Jewell is no guarantee for this matchup either experiencing a groin injury that took him out of week 3.
Singleton has a chance to take the lead role this week against a hapless offense and find a way back on top of the tackle efficiency hill… or at the very least, be a strong top 30 LB play for us in week 4 of our IDP seasons!
SIT: Tremaine Edmunds, Chicago Bears, LB20
Tremaine Edmunds has seen some heat this season from Chicago fans since his big contract this off-season and the lack of a good start from either side of the ball for the Bears. Edmunds has been very effective as a tackler, with one of the best seasons in his career, at 16.04% tackle efficiency. So why bench or fade Edmunds this week?
This comes down to the matchup and opportunity. Edmunds saw his snap count dip a bit last week and with no clear injury or understanding at this time from the coach, this is a little concerning. And for the Denver Broncos, opposing LBs have not fared as well for IDP against them. In fact, they are bottom 5 in points given up to LBs. For these reasons, I am passing on Edmunds as an LB2 this week.
START: Rudy Ford, Green Bay Packers, DB46 (S43)
Last season, Rudy Ford was an afterthought at the start of the 2022 season. But by the end, and going into 2023, Ford was the presumed starter for a solid Packers defense and has found a way to be successful for IDP in this new role.
He has notched 20 tackles on 212 defensive snaps. Along with 2 PBUs Rudy Ford has a decent start to the IDP season. His alignment and usage have been good, but not great as well. Taking 49.05% of his snaps within the sweet spot (DL, Box, Slot) alignments, he has made the most and gets a team in the Detroit Lions, that are top 10 in scoring for opposing teams’ safeties. And with Sam LaPorta off to a hot start and Goff’s tendency to target inside the numbers, Ford is in line for a much better performance than anticipated for week 4.
SIT: Tyrann Mathieu, New Orleans Saints, DB36 (S35)
Tyrann has played an ideal role with strong alignment in the sweet spot at, 57.9% of his snaps. However, he has had mediocre delivery for IDP with this usage. 12 total tackles on 202 snaps, 1 pass break-up, and only 2 pass rush opportunities. The under-performance for the first 3 weeks has me a bit concerned about his ability to deliver in this next matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bucs have been a bottom-half IDP scoring team for opposing safeties and looked to have been a bit exposed against the Eagles in week 3. Getting pressure on Mayfield and getting him out of the pocket has led to less success and shorter drives, which can limit our IDP upside as well.
For this week, I am out on Mathieu and I would be wary for the remainder of the season as well.
