Week 5 Street FA Report

By Nick Andrews

Updated: October 3rd 2018

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Byes: Chicago, Tampa Bay

Add of the Week

Taylor Gabriel, WR – CHI (Owned 24.5%)

Week 4: 7 Rec/ 104 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Car/10 yards

Gabriel was a player I featured two weeks ago but his ownership levels barely rose. After a 30 point PPR performance last week it is unlikely that he will remain this low. Unfortunately, he and the rest of the Bears are on the bye in week 5 after having a huge offensive showing in week 4 but maybe that will keep some from putting in a claim. Gabriel isn’t going to be getting many multi-touchdown games going forward but he has established himself as a clear target that Mitchell Trubisky is looking for in the passing game. If Anthony Miller misses any additional games coming out the bye that just means more targets for Gabriel going forward.

Suggested Bid: $3,000,000 – $5,000,000

RB Add

Mike Davis, RB – SEA (Owned 2.8%)

Week 4: 21 Car/101 yards, 2 TDs, 4 Rec/23 yards

Bill Belichick may get a lot of flak for being ruthless with his deployment of running backs in his offensive game plan but at least when he takes an RB in the first round (Sony Michel) he actually uses him. Pete Carroll took Rashaad Penny in the first but he and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer have sparingly used him, instead favoring Chris Carson and now Mike Davis more. After Davis’ 100-yard game last week Carroll has said that he will remain in the rotation even when Carson returns to the line-up. It is tough to see all of these runners being consistent contributors in a given week but with injuries being a real problem it’s worth a shot to see if Davis has some more decent games ahead of him.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 – $1,000,000

Wendell Smallwood, RB – PHI (Owned 31%)

Week 4: 5 Car/39 yards, 3 Rec/15 yards

Sproles and Clement were out this past week which allowed for Wendell Smallwood to operate as the second option behind Jay Ajayi. He didn’t have a huge stat line but he provided enough that if Ajayi’s own injury flares up mid-game he could be a deep play in some leagues hurting for RBs. At a minimum, if Sproles and/or Clement are held out for games moving forward Smallwood should have some PPR value based on how he was used against the Titans last week. He had more targets than Ajayi in the receiving game despite being on the field for significantly fewer plays.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Add

Keke Coutee, WR – HOU (Owned 48.5%)

Week 4: 11 Rec/109 yards, 2 Car/-2 yards

Keke Coutee was a frequent third-round selection in rookie drafts this offseason but had been invisible due to injury for the first three weeks. He had quite the first showing though as he tied for the most targets in week 4 with fifteen, catching eleven! At 5’10” Coutee is the prototypical slot receiver that will gobble up the underneath targets. With Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins garnering all the attention of defenses deep and on the outside, Coutee will continue to find open areas underneath the coverage and should have a stable target share each week. Maybe not fifteen targets stable but enough that in leagues that start 4+ WR/Flex he might become a starting staple in a week or two. If he wasn’t draft in your league now is the time to grab him and see how he develops. As for trading, while buying after a big week is always a tough thing to do it may be advantageous to get in before he has another couple of solid games and becomes too expensive.

Suggested Bid: $3,000,000 – $6,000,000 or a 2^nd round

TE Add

Geoff Swaim, TE – DAL (Owned 7%)

Week 4: 3 Rec/39 yards, 1 TD

Dallas’ offense is brutal this season outside of Zeke Elliot. Still, like my take on Deonte Thompson last week someone has to catch the ball outside of Cole Beasley. Geoff Swaim has been the second most targeted Dallas receiver (16) through the first month. He also has five times more targets than the rest of the TEs combined so he doesn’t have much coming up behind him to steal targets. Swaim is no Jason Witten and this offense is not going to score as they did two years ago but in a league where week-to-week production at the TE position is limited to a handful of players, it doesn’t hurt to have a team’s clear number one. Especially for teams that had Eifert/Walker lost for the season, you could do worse than Swaim.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 – $1,000,000

Sleeper Add (<10%)

Chester Rogers, WR – IND (Owned 4.6%)

Week 4: 8 Rec/85 yards

Chester Rogers is a name that many have likely cursed as a player that has stolen relevant points from other Colts receivers in past seasons but he could have standalone value, at least for a couple of weeks with T.Y. Hilton injured. At least with having to play on the short week on Thursday Rogers will be the number two receiver for one game which means if you’re in a jam he could be a Hail Mary option for week 5 and any future weeks that T.Y. is inactive. The Colts are a pass first, second, and third down team so there should be plenty of looks from Andrew Luck, especially if they find themselves trailing like they have through much of this season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

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The Unstable Stable

By Nick Andrews

Updated: November 3rd 2016

Dynasty football and redraft football are nothing alike. What do I mean by that? Well, if we think of fantasy football in meteorological terms we can compare redraft to the Weather, a constantly changing natural phenomenon that so-called “experts” seem to predict no better than you and I. It can be summarized perfectly in this tweet by @CommishTalkBlog. Does this sound like a familiar situation to some of your teams?

Now if we look at dynasty, it’s more like the Climate, where it takes time to change but there definitely a change nevertheless. Two years ago everyone was SURE Eddy Lacy was a top 5 running back for years to come. Now he might not even make it to a second contract; even if he does it’s not likely with the Packers. People always talk about players and their values as if it’s something that will remain the same year over year. I’ve been playing long enough to notice a one year wonder when I see one.

**Full disclosure I was once the guy in my draft that took Zac Stacy in the 3^rd round of my 2014 redraft league**

I’ll admit when I make a mistake, Mr. David Johnson I’m sorry, but I would rather invest in something I know IS good versus paying for something that MIGHT BE great. RSO dynasty emphasizes these mistakes even more by having salaries attached to players. If you miss in a redraft you find a new guy next week on the wire. Miss in RSO, oh boy, you could have a very expensive placeholder on your bench for multiple years.

So here we are midway through the 2016 season and we’ve already had some new and old faces push their way into the fantasy limelight. But we need to think about the long term and with a decent class of talent coming in the way of rookies next year who can we expect to hold a grip on their team and who could be this year’s Zac Stacy? I’m going to go through five (5) teams that I think are likely to draft a running back early next year. I’m not going to list the obvious teams (Patriots and Colts) instead focusing on teams with RB situations that seem stable now but could be very different come May next year.

Miami Dolphins – Jay Ajayi

Wait what? Nothing says stability like a guy who gets 200 rushing yards in back to back games right? Remember that before the season started this was the same team that tried to sign away C.J. Anderson from the Broncos before he was brought back. Then they went and drafted Kenyan Drake in the 4^th round and then added a broken Arian Foster because they still weren’t sure of their starting running back. Ajayi had severe knee issues coming into the league and it was a concern about how long of a career he could have (which is why he fell all the way to the 5^th round). He may have hit his max return value right now and if you can sell him for any number of more proven RBs I would be smashing that “accept” button. It would not surprise me if they took an RB before the end of day 2 of the draft in 2017.

Minnesota – Adrian Peterson, Jerrick McKinnon

While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see AP moving on after the end of the season people are ready to move McKinnon right into the starting role for 2017. As someone who both owns and owned McKinnon in RSO, I was high on what he could do as the pass catching threat next to AP. Sadly, he still hasn’t been able to shake off Matt Asiata for the lead role after AP’s injury so what makes you think that he could keep an incoming rookie off the pedestal? The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the league and therefore I could easily see them being one of the first teams to take a running back off the board. Honestly, if they get their hands on any of the top four in the class (Fournette, Chubbs, Cook, or McCaffrey) that’s my early prediction for the 1.01 next year.

Philadelphia Eagles – Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood

Doug Pederson found himself a quarterback in 2016. Many questioned his move up to number two for an unknown project player in Carson Wentz. Nobody is questioning him anymore but what Pederson really thrives with is a smart, shifty running back that can move the ball on the group and through the air. You look at his previous backs and you see shapeshifters like Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and even all the way back to Brian Westbrook. Darren Sproles is the guy closest to those guys right now but he’s 33 years old and not in their long term plan. Smallwood seems more like a special teams player at this point and we can’t rely on Mathews to be healthy year over year. We could see a similar scenario with Mathews as his former running mate Demarco Murray is right now where they draft someone younger (Henry) and groom him behind the veteran before giving him the full load.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Le’Veon Bell

This one is less based on talent and more on circumstances. One of the best running backs in the league, Bell sure does come with his baggage. Suspended each of the last two seasons for substance abuse he is walking a very thin line in what is quickly becoming known as the “No Fun League”. Skeptics will be quick to remind me of the same problems that were clouding Ben Roethlisberger early in his career and he seems to have turned it around nicely under the management of the Rooney family. However, we’ve already seen glimpses of what Bell is expecting to be paid when his contract expires and while some teams may be more lenient to offer a troubled superstar a boatload of cash I don’t see the proud Steelers franchise being bullied into a contract. They did it when they let Mike Wallace walk to the Dolphins. Maybe they double down on their principles and draft an RB that could be leading the Steelers in the 2018 season.

Oakland Raiders – Latavius Murray, DeAndre Washington

Some people might say that this is an obvious choice to be selecting a running back. But those are also likely the same people that said Murray was going to lose the job this year and Washington was going to be the starter by midseason. Well, we’re halfway through the season and save for a couple of games that he was injured Murray has held a strong lead in the depth chart rankings. That is not to say that it will remain the same next year. This year’s class of RBs had an obvious lack of depth behind Elliot, Henry and maybe now Booker. But next year is a whole different ball game and there may also be a couple of free agents (looking at Lacy) that could be available for the right price. If the Raiders are indeed moving to Las Vegas they may be looking to do the same as the Rams did and make a big splash before moving. They already have the young budding QB to WR combo. Jack Del Rio may be looking to add that final piece to his triumvirate.

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Redrafting the 2016 Rookie Draft

By Dave Sanders

Updated: October 9th 2016

As we’re about a quarter of the way into the 2016 season, plenty has changed since our rookie drafts this past summer. Values have changed, injuries have occurred, and roles have been more clearly defined. In hindsight there are many picks that we’re all proud of, but also some that we’re ashamed to look back on. In this piece, I’m going to redraft the first round of a 2016 Rookie Draft assuming that it took place today.

#1.01 Ezekiel Elliott – RB DAL

2016: 94 car – 412 yards – 3TDs; 6 rec – 44 yards

Analysis: The consensus 1.01 pick throughout the off-season, Elliott has largely delivered on the months of hype that surrounded him. He’s produced as the number one running back in Dallas, though he has been unluckily vultured at the goal-line a few times. He’s been less involved in the passing game than I anticipated, but I expect his usage to improve over the next few years.

#1.02 Corey Coleman – WR CLE

2016: 7 rec – 173 yards – 2TDs

Analysis: Coleman, my choice for the 1.02 pick in the off-season, has flashed his immense potential in limited opportunities this season. The Cleveland offense, headed by Hue Jackson, may no longer be a fantasy wasteland as Isaiah Crowell, Terrelle Pyror, and Corey Coleman have emerged this season as viable fantasy options. Missing 4-to-6 weeks with a broken hand is unfortunate, but it doesn’t impact my long-term projection of Coleman.

#1.03 Will Fuller – WR HOU

2016: 19 rec – 323 – 2TDs

Analysis: I’m not afraid to admit that I was dead wrong about Will Fuller. I had him outside of my top 10 and didn’t believe he would be nearly as versatile as he’s proved to be. Not only a deep threat, Fuller is a weapon in all areas of the field. His success is currently being limited by poor QB, but the sky’s the limit if Brock Osweiler improves.

#1.04 Sterling Shepard – WR NYG

2016: 20 rec – 263 – 2TDs

Analysis: Of all the 2016 rookies, I have the most shares of Sterling Shepard. A very polished route runner, I expected Shepard to immediately make an impact especially in PPR leagues. He has not disappointed and appears on a trajectory towards WR2 status for much of his career.

#1.05 Michael Thomas – WR NO

2016: 21 rec – 229 yards – 2TDs

Analysis: Through 4 games, the 6’3″ sure-handed possession receiver has performed well as many expected. His quick emergence, as a WR3/WR4 in 2016, make him an excellent value on a 3 or 4 year RSO rookie contract.

#1.06 Derrick Henry – RB TEN

2016: 27 car – 97 yards; 3 rec – 50 yards

Analysis: After a very impressive preseason, I expected that Derrick Henry would be much more involved in the Tennessee offense than he’s been through four games. Instead, DeMarco Murray has been a true workhouse, leaving little work for the rookie Henry. In a year or two, Henry should take over the starting job in Tennessee and immediately join the RB1 conversation. A true physical specimen with a unique combination of size and speed, Henry is one of the most athletically gifted RB prospects we’ve seen in quite some time. This preseason, he even showed promise catching the ball out of the backfield. If the Henry owner in your league is growing impatient, now’s the time to buy.

#1.07 Laquon Treadwell – WR MIN

2016: n/a

Analysis: Treadwell was widely considered the consensus 1.02 or 1.03 pick in all rookie drafts, but his value has dropped in the first month of the season. He’s been a healthy inactive in several games and has seen very few snaps when he’s actually been active. While the Vikings may want to bring their rookie along slowly, it’s very concerning that he can’t beat out Charles Johnson, Adam Thielen, Jarius Wright, and Cordarrelle Patterson for WR reps. I’m still a believer in his talent, but red flags have been raised.

#1.08 Kenneth Dixon – RB BAL

2016: n/a

Analysis: Dixon’s expected debut in Week 5 has generated a great deal of buzz in the fantasy community as many expect him to quickly overtake Terrance West. As a prospect at the draft, I was very high on Kenneth Dixon…love his speed, athleticism, and pass catching abilities. The knee injury delayed his NFL debut and briefly suppressed his value, but that has now risen likely greater than it was in April and May.

#1.09 Josh Doctson – WR WAS

2016: 2 rec – 66 yards

Analysis: 2016 may end as a lost season for Josh Doctson, but all hope is not lost. Assuming he enters the 2017 season healthy, he will have a great opportunity to earn a significant target share in Washington. DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon are both free agents after 2016 and it seems unlikely both will return.

#1.10 Jordan Howard – RB CHI

2016: 35 car – 178 yards; 9 rec – 77 yards

Analysis: The most interesting aspect of Jordan Howard’s impressive start as a rookie is his usage in the passing game. Largely considered a 2-down back after catching a total of 24 passes in 32 collegiate games, Howard seemed to lack the upside of more versatile backs but clearly that isn’t the case.

#1.11 DeAndre Washington – RB OAK

2016: 23 car – 147 yards; 6 rec – 37 yards

Analysis: Throughout the off-season we kept hearing that the Raiders weren’t 100% sold on Latavius Murray as their workhorse back. DeAndre Washington became a fantasy sleeper soon after the NFL draft. Though only 5’8”, Washington is a physical back that can run between the tackles, make a defender miss in space, and is adequate catching the ball out of the backfield. He may be part of a committee in Oakland long-term, but committees are the new norm in the NFL. Washington is clearly a talent that runs behind one of the best offensive lines in football.

#1.12 Hunter Henry – TE SD

2016: 10 rec – 153 yards – TD

Analysis: Hunter Henry looks like he may turn into what the fantasy community had hoped Ladarius Green would be. Henry has produced in Antonio Gates‘ absence and has become a reliable target for QB Philip Rivers.

Just missed the first round:

Wendell Smallwood – RB PHI

Carson Wentz – QB PHI

Tajae Sharpe – WR TEN

Tyler Boyd – WR CIN

Braxton Miller – WR HOU

Devontae Booker – RB DEN

Malcolm Mitchell – WR NE

CJ Prosise – RB SEA

Paul Perkins – RB NYG

Dwayne Washington – RB DET

Let me know which of your rookie picks you’re most proud of – on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO!

Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999. Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers keeper and dynasty leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each. Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO

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Open the Wallet – Players to Buy

By Dave Sanders

Updated: June 22nd 2016

In dynasty and RSO leagues, I cannot emphasize enough the importance of staying active year round in trade talks. Player values fluctuate more than ever during this time of year. If you’re willing to stomach some risk, there’s an opportunity for profit. When discussing trades, I often hear that owners are afraid making a move and having it backfire in the long term. My strategy is a bit different as I’m unafraid to make an aggressive move if I believe I’m getting more value at the time of the trade. If you accept that you will lose in some trades but believe you will win out more than 50% of the time, be as aggressive as possible. Right or wrong, I do not just consider deals made to be potential wins or losses. I also think this way about trade talks that were close, but never materialized for whatever reason. For example, trades I’ve declined have potential to be wins or losses as well though my roster has remained intact.

In this off-season edition of Open the Wallet, I’ll explain which players I’m actively looking to buy before the 2016 season.

Mark Ingram RB NO – I’ll admit, I wasn’t a fan of him early in his NFL career, but his production the last few years cannot be ignored. In fact, Ingram has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over the past 3 seasons, while increasing his utilization in the passing game each year. In 2015, Ingram caught 50 passes in only 12 games. With an ADP of 44th overall in Dynasty League Football June startup drafts, Ingram is a value with a few years left in the tank.

Ryan Mathews RB PHI / Wendell Smallwood RB PHI – Give me running backs in a Doug Pederson offense. We saw last year that non-elite talents like Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware could be effective in Pederson’s conservative scheme. In Philadelphia, Pederson should continue running a conservative offense, especially while grooming Carson Wentz. The Eagles off-season moves also indicate that they’ll be heavily focused on running the football. They didn’t add any notable WRs in the draft or free agency, leaving the receiver corps very thin. Philadelphia also invested heavily on the offensive line and at tight end this off-season. Mathews was very efficient in 2015, especially early in the season. He should be a borderline RB1 for as long as he can stay healthy. That said, Mathews isn’t the only running back on the team with fantasy value. Wendell Smallwood quietly was a do-it-all workhorse at West Virginia. I’d expect for him to open the season as Ryan Mathews backup with the potential to become the feature back if/when Mathews misses time for an injury.

Danny Woodhead RB SD – Woodhead finished 5th in PPR scoring among RBs last year. As we all know, Melvin Gordon struggled last season but still managed to eat 217 touches. With Gordon returning from microfracture surgery, Woodhead may have an even larger role this season. He still has enough in the tank to be a valuable contributor for title contending teams, especially in PPR or .5 PPR formats.

Keenan Allen WR SD – According to DLF ADP, Keenan Allen is currently being selected just ahead of a group of exciting but unproven wide receivers that includes Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, Donte Moncrief, and DeVante Parker. Allen’s currently going 15th overall, 11th among WRs. He was on pace to put up career numbers in 2015 before lacerating his kidney. Expected to be at full strength for Week 1, Allen is an excellent trade target if you own one of these young and unproven WRs listed above or own an aging wide receiver like Dez Bryant, AJ Green, or Demaryius Thomas and want to cash in while they still have top 20 value. You likely wouldn’t need to toss in more than a second round rookie pick with Treadwell, White, Moncrief, Parker, or Thomas to acquire Allen.

Eric Decker WR Jets – Quietly Eric Decker had a monster year in 2015. Many expected that his productive days would end when he left the Peyton Manning led Denver Broncos, but that hasn’t been the case. In fact, he’s been very productive with bottom-tier talents Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith. While Fitzpatrick’s numbers were solid last year, he was largely aided by his star wide receivers and the Chan Gailey scheme. Pro Football Focus ranked him as just the 25th best QB in 2015.

Tom Brady QB NE – As Matthew Berry coined in 2015, the “Gronk You Tour” may continue into 2016. He’s the perfect number two QB for a contending team as he’ll likely provide elite production for a majority of the season. Let’s not forget that Brady was the 2nd best fantasy QB in 2015. His four-game suspension presents a great buying opportunity as he’s currently 122nd in DLF ADP, 11th among QBs.

Carson Palmer QB ARI – Similar to Brady, Palmer was very good in 2015 – ranking 5th among QBs. I’m hoping the memory of his last game, the 4 interception disaster vs. Carolina in the playoffs, remains in the front of his owners’ minds. Optimistic that he has 1-2 good seasons left, I’d be willing to part with a late round rookie pick to acquire Palmer. That’s likely all it would take as he’s currently being drafted 153rd in DLF ADP, 13th among QBs.

Which of these players are you also targeting in trades? Let me know @DaveSanders_RSO on Twitter!

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