The Watch List: 2018 PAC-12 Preview

By Bob Cowper

Updated: August 8th 2018

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason predictions. During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Favorite: Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona. Back in my Mountain West preview, I shared the following statistics: “Seven of the last eight Heisman awards were won by quarterbacks. Those seven averaged 921 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs in their Heisman winning seasons.” Tate figures to have those totals locked up by Week 8.
Darkhorse Heisman Candidate: Bryce Love, RB, Stanford. Love finished second in the Heisman voting in 2017 (losing to QB Baker Mayfield). Despite nagging injuries forcing him to miss snaps, Love still put up astronomical totals: 2,118 yards, 8.1 yards per carry and 19 TDs. According to Stanford’s media guide, Love is now at 196lbs, hopefully he can put on a few more which could help him better absorb the blows of the position.
Offensive Player of the Year: Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona. If Tate plays all twelve regular season games in 2018, nobody in the PAC-12 will match his production. He’s an easy, but boring, pick for OPOY. Bonus pick… Ross Bowers, QB, Cal. Bowers is the conference’s leading returning passer in terms of yards per game and has two of the conference’s top four returning receivers alongside. Cal won’t be great but Bowers, if he holds off South Carolina transfer Brandon McIlwain, should find success in his second year at the helm.
Defensive Player of the Year: Porter Gustin, LB, USC. I’m going a bit off the beaten path with this one. Gustin is a capable edge rusher who missed most of 2017 with injury. He has 23 tackles for loss and 14 sacks over his career which is solid but not eye-opening. What is eye-opening is his athletic ability; Gustin has potential to be a fast riser up draft boards when fans see him again this season. NFL.com profiled him in a “most freakish athletes” article last season (he returned to the list this offseason). If the measureables quoted are close, we are looking at an athletic profile similar to 5th overall pick Bradley Chubb. If Gustin plays at full health for 13 games he could hit double digit sacks and will be a threat on every snap. He may not be the most valuable player on a dominant Trojan defense but he’ll be the most visible.
Newcomers of the Year: Chip Kelly, UCLA and Herm Edwards, Arizona State. The PAC-12 brought in two brand-name coaches in Kelly and Edwards. Fans of both the NFL and the NCAA will recognize their names so they will inevitably draw eyeballs to their teams’ games. I have much more faith in Kelly who has a 46-7 career record as a college head coach. Herm, on the other hand, last coached in the NCAA before all of his players were born (1987-89 as a defensive backs coach at San Jose State). I’d bet that both teams end with losing records; they’ll be interesting storylines but for the wrong reasons.
Underclassman to Watch: Stephen Carr, RB, USC. As a true freshman, Carr played second-fiddle to Ronald Jones last season but stood out to me on a number of occasions. The game I remember watching him play most was against Stanford. In that game he totaled 137 yards on 12 touches. I went back and watched the highlights and there were three crucial plays, two runs and one catch. He has a big frame at 6000/210 and I think his speed is deceiving because of his upright running style and long gait. Carr has to prove that he can stay healthy because he just had back surgery and also missed time in 2017 with a foot.
Best QB-WR Tandem: Manny Wilkins and N’Keal Harry, Arizona State. Wilkins is embarking on his third season as the Sun Devil starter and looks to continue his upward statistical trend. He threw for 3,270 yards last season which is the highest total for a returning passer in the league. Harry has been starting with Wilkins all along and has a career 140-1,801-13 line to show for it. Harry is one of the highest ranked 2019 receiver prospects so I expect that he’ll continue to make Wilkins look good.
Best RB Corps: Stanford. Stanford and UCLA are the only two PAC-12 teams whose top two returning rushers are running backs. UCLA’s backs, Bolu Olorunfunmi and Soso Jamabo, could be valuable in Kelly’s offense but I need to see it before I put them above Bryce Love and Cameron Scarlett. It’s probably not fair to call Scarlett the Robin to Love’s Batman but they do make a good one-two punch. Scarlett ended up getting 91 carries last season, gaining 389 yards and scoring a whopping 8 TDs. I wonder if head coach David Shaw will manage Love’s snaps to keep him healthier down the homestretch. If he does, Scarlett will be a valuable piece in the Cardinal offense.
Coach on the Hottest Seat: Herm Edwards, Arizona State. Is it too early to put Herm on the hot seat before his first game with the Sun Devils? Arizona State immediately received some blow back after the appointment and then we heard that some of former coach Todd Graham’s staff was staying on at the suggestion of the school’s administration. I presume the thinking was that Edwards is long removed from coaching, especially at the collegiate level, so he might struggle to put together a contemporary staff. If that was a concern of the ASU brass, maybe they should not have hired Edwards in the first place.

Teams to Watch

Oregon (7-6 in 2017)

Oregon has two things going for it in 2018: a top NFL prospect under center and a soft schedule. Sure, promoted offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal loses RB Royce Freeman to the Broncos but the Ducks have not had trouble in recent memory replacing running backs. QB Justin Herbert is a big prospect, pun intended. I will feature him elsewhere in this preview but it goes without saying that he’ll be the key to Oregon’s ascent in 2018. The non-conference schedule is Downy soft: home games against Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State. The Ducks don’t even need to leave Eugene to face Washington or Stanford, their two biggest rivals for the division crown. In their cross-over schedule, Oregon avoided USC this season. It’s all lining up for Cristobal to get to double digit wins and a potential PAC-12 title game.

UCLA (6-7 in 2017)

Former Oregon coach Chip Kelly takes over in Los Angeles this season and he’ll have his work cut out for him. ESPN’s Football Power Index and Phil Steele both agree that UCLA faces the toughest schedule in the nation this season. They have conference cross-over games against the top of the PAC-12 North: Washington, Utah and Oregon. Their non-conference schedule is tough too, hosting Cincinnati and Fresno State with a visit to Oklahoma in between. You’d be less concerned about the schedule if Kelly had an experienced quarterback to run his specialized offense. Unfortunately, Josh Rosen has departed (and wouldn’t have been a great fit anyway) and left behind some uncertainty. There are three options on the table for Kelly and I have no idea which one he’ll go with. Wilton Speight transferred in from Michigan where he continually underwhelmed Wolverine fans like myself. Incumbent Devon Modster had a 152.6 rating in limited action last year when Rosen was hurt. True freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson was a 4-star recruit and the 2nd ranked dual-threat QB in the class according to 247Sports. If I had to guess now, I would predict that Kelly rides with Thompson-Robinson for most of the season after letting either Modster or Speight take the lumps against the Sooners.

Players to Watch

Honorable Mentions

Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona: If you’re playing college fantasy football, look no further than Khalil Tate as your QB1 and 1.01. Tate took over as the starter in October last year and didn’t look back. He completes passes at a higher rate than you would anticipate given his penchant for running the ball (62.0%). Tate is not a high volume passer (just three games with 20+ attempts and just two games with 200+ yards), instead he derives his value on the ground. He rushed for 1,411 yards and 12 TDs last season. I anticipate he’ll get more touches in 2018 and should hit the 1,500 yard and 15 TD marks. Size-wise he’s similar to Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson from the 2017 class. It will be interesting to see Tate’s progression this season and next (I think he’ll need to return for his senior season to prove he can cut it as an NFL-level passer).
Myles Gaskin, RB, Washington: Gaskin was an NFL Draft prospect last Winter before deciding to return to the Huskies for his senior year. In my first 2018 mock, I slotted Gaskin into the 3.02 spot and as RB9. I anticipate the 2018 running back class will be a bit lighter than 2017’s so Gaskin has a shot at moving higher in my rankings. When I wrote about Gaskin during bowl season, I acknowledged that my ranking of him was probably a product of an east coast bias because I just don’t get to see him play that often. It’s hard to argue with Gaskin’s production: three straight 1,300+ yard seasons and 45 career rushing TDs. He definitely deserves more of my attention this season.
Zack Moss, RB, Utah: I have seen Moss described as a “raging bull” and as “the juggernaut” on Twitter. Both are apt. Moss is a compact yet powerful runner at 5010/210. He seeks contact and can bowl over defensive backs. He rushed for 1,173 and 10 TDs last season and added an impressive 29-243 line as a receiver.
Michael Pittman, WR, USC: Pittman was overshadowed last season WRs Deontay Burnett, Tyler Vaughns and Stephen Mitchell. As the fourth option he still managed 23-404-2. Vaughns also returns, so why am I highlighting Pittman? His size. He’s listed at 6040/215 which is tailor made for the NFL. Vaughns is more slight at 6020/185. Pittman was a 4-star recruit himself so he’s no slouch. With over 120 receptions graduated, I expect Pittman to take a big step forward. Something that might go under the radar is his special teams ability which will help him secure an NFL roster spot. He has 13 career tackles and has both blocked and returned punts (including one great trick return for a score).
PAC-12 Tight Ends: A PAC-12 tight end will be drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft in 2019. Book it. Just don’t ask me which one. Stanford’s Kaden Smith, UCLA’s Caleb Wilson and Oregon’s Jacob Breeland all have a shot to land near the top of 2019 tight end rankings (and I’m sure there’s somebody I’m missing too). He’s only a sophomore, and coming off injury, but Washington’s Hunter Bryant is one to keep an eye on too for 2020.
Trey Adams, OT, Washington: Adams missed much of last season due to an ACL injury but when he was fully healthy in 2016 he was an All-PAC-12 performer and earned 2nd-Team All-American honors from the FWAA. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller predicted Adams will be a top ten pick in the 2019 draft; the scout he interviewed compared Adams to Taylor Lewan. Phil Steele’s preview magazine lists him as the 4th best draft eligible tackle in the nation. In order to be drafted that high, Adams will need to prove to scouts that he is fully recovered from his ACL injury.
Cameron Smith, LB, USC: Smith has been a starter and a leader on this unit since he was a true freshman. The Trojan defense will be one of the best in the FBS so I anticipate Smith getting a lot of attention. He’s a high volume tackler, 112 in 2017, who can also cover. He has 10 career pass break-ups and 4 INTs. I expect him to have another successful season that will be capped off with being selected on Day Two of the NFL Draft.
Marvell Tell, S, USC: It was tough deciding whether I should feature Tell or CB Iman Marshall from the USC secondary. I went with Tell since his profile seems to be on the rise. Tell totaled 85 tackles last season along with 3 INTs. He is the top ranked safety prospect by a number of sources, including DraftScout.com and Phil Steele. Jesse Bates, a second round choice by the Bengals in 2017, would be a good size, speed and production comparison. There are no games available to watch of Tell so instead I watched some of Marshall’s film to get an idea of Tell’s playing style. He’s lanky and while he has a respectable amount of tackles, he does not seem to be as aggressive as I would like. It was a very small sample of plays I watched so I’m not making a judgment call, just making a mental note until I see him live this year.

Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

I currently have Justin Herbert as my highest rated quarterback for the 2019 NFL Draft (full disclosure: I have only thoroughly studied about a dozen guys so far and few from the Power 5). Herbert has played eight games in both of his first two seasons at Oregon. In 2016, he took over midseason and ended with 1,936 yards, 19 TDs, 4 INTs and a 63.5% completion percentage. In 2017, Herbert threw less passes but increased his completion percentage to 67.6%; he missed the middle of the season with a broken collarbone. Herbert’s injury concerns date back to high school when he broke his leg as a junior. He does offer a bit on the ground with 344 career rushing yards and 7 TDs. After looking at his stats and injury history it’s tough to justify the placement of Herbert as QB1 but my ranking is more on potential than anything else.

Herbert measures in with elite size at 6060/225 and is projected to run a 4.81 by DraftScout.com. Of the 40 quarterbacks to measure 6050/220 or better and run under a 5.00 at the combine, an incredible 36 were drafted. Seventeen of them were first rounders. Based purely on his size and athleticism, Herbert is as safe a bet as any to be a first rounder.

Luckily, his measureables are borne out on film. When I watch Herbert, I see a quarterback with above average speed and athleticism for his size and position. He throws well on the run compared to others I have watched thus far this offseason. It’s a great trait for somebody who runs the zone read and plays off play-action so often. I noted average arm strength so I would like to see that improve this season. His accuracy is best in the mid-range passing game but is serviceable short and deep as well. Like many QBs at this stage of their career, Herbert needs to work on his footwork and mechanics. He showed me positive field and situational awareness and he utilizes an effective pump fake.

Herbert certainly has a lot to prove in 2018 but if I’m predicting somebody to be the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, it’s Herbert. The reality is that a quarterback will rise up draft boards, despite how strong this year’s defensive line class is. Before we crown him though, let’s see if Herbert stays healthy and continues to improve in the aforementioned key areas. (Film watched: Arizona State 2017, Boise State 2017)

Bryce Love, RB, Stanford

Of all the players I have previewed this offseason, Bryce Love likely has the most recognizable name to casual fans. That acclaim is thanks to Love’s second place Heisman finish in 2017. He totaled 2,118 yards rushing and 19 TDs last season on his way to All-American and PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors. Perhaps most impressive was Love’s yards per carry: 8.1 over 263 carries. If you’re studying Love’s stats and game logs, you will notice that he is not a part of the passing game (just 6 receptions last year). Love’s height is perfect for a running back (5100) but he needs to bulk up in order to be a top NFL prospect at the position. Over the last two seasons, just nine backs were 5090-5100 and weighed between 190-205lbs. Two of them were drafted (former teammate Christian McCaffrey and Miami’s Mark Walton) but they were both just over 200lbs; none of those under 200lbs in that cohort were drafted. As I mentioned above, Love battled nagging injuries last season, perhaps a function of his frame, and missed snaps in multiple games. Nobody can question Love’s toughness however, despite reportedly having a high ankle sprain, he managed to play through and only missed one game.

I saw Love play a number of times in 2017 but I was eager to dive in and watch some film to jog my memory of his strengths and weaknesses. Love’s big play ability jumps off the screen immediately, accentuated by his 4.40 speed. He is a nuanced runner who exhibits numerous skill moves to make defenders miss (i.e. spin move, hurdle and stiff arm). Love also utilizes devastating cutting ability, oftentimes multiple times on the same play, to leave defenders grasping at air. He has very good patience at the line of scrimmage as he squares his shoulder to the line and stutter steps as he identifies which hole to hit. Love runs stronger than you would expect based on measureables. He’s a tough runner who takes a lot of contact. He can get stood up by bigger defenders but he’s sometimes able to spin out of the tackle rather than bowl over the defender. As I alluded to above, Love is not a passing game feature. In the two games I re-watched he had just one catch and it was on a shovel pass. I tenuously have Love down as an average pass blocker. Unfortunately his size means there were multiple plays where he was pushed back into the passer. Just like when he runs the ball, he does not shy away from contact so it’s not a matter of want-to.

I’m probably lower on most when it comes to Love’s real-life and fantasy draft stocks. He’ll probably start the season as a mid-1st rounder for most dynasty rankers but I will probably have him closer to the end of the first. (Film watched: Washington 2017, TCU 2017)

N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State

Harry landed on my radar about a year ago, after his freshman season, when I was doing some devy research and came across his name. I didn’t get a chance to watch him live at all in 2017 but I had filed away his name waiting for the right time to profile him. He has prototypical #1 receiver size at 6040/216 and is projected to run in the 4.50 range (think: AJ Green). He had a successful freshman season in 2016, ending with a 58-659-5 line. In 2017, he improved to 82 receptions, 1,142 yards and 8 TDs. As good as the numbers are and as big as the hype is, I was not as blown away by his tape as I had expected to be.

There’s no doubt that Harry exhibits a few elite skills. First off, he has some of the best body control and sideline awareness of any receiver I have studied in the last two years. He routinely makes toe-tapping sideline catches. Harry also shows great concentration when making contested catches. Even with a defender draped over his shoulders and a hand in his line of sight he is able to find the ball and hang on with his strong hands. He is often physical at the top of his vertical route stem, utilizing his size to gain separation from smaller DBs. Unfortunately, in the two games I watched, Harry did not run a variety of routes; I would say that half of his routes were screens and another chunk were simple curls or comebacks. I do have some concern about his speed – I’m thinking he’s in the 4.55 range – because he looked slower than I anticipated. Although, I must admit he showed good burst on a few individual plays. He’s fine when he gets to top gear but I did not note too many occasions where his speed afforded him a good release off the line. At this point in his career, Harry appears to be a below average blocker. He shows okay form on a number of attempts but there are numerous whiffs and disinterest as well. Despite the negatives that I noticed, Harry has the ability to make you forget all of that with one spectacular play. When watching the UCLA game I was ready to bump him down my rankings until he took over a drive late in the game. On the first play, he makes a great high-pointed hands catch and manages to keep his feet in bounds, all while maintaining control to the ground. On the second play, he takes an outside release into double coverage and makes a great concentration catch. Not too many players in the NFL could have made both catches, let alone in the FBS.

If we were drafting today, Harry would be in the running for the 1.01 for 2018 rookie drafts. As usual a lot will come down to his NFL team’s scheme and depth chart but he has the physical tools to transcend situation. (Film watched: UCLA 2017, Texas Tech 2017)

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch. For top prospects I may add a third game, while for long shots I might only devote the time for one. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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The Watch List: Bowl Game Previews, Part VI

By Bob Cowper

Updated: December 30th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.

Monday, Jan. 1

Outback Bowl, Michigan (8-4) vs. South Carolina (8-4), 12 p.m. (ESPN2)

Michigan: 88th scoring offense, 112th passing offense, 44th rushing offense; 14th scoring defense, 1st passing defense, 21st rushing defense
South Carolina: 99th scoring offense, 79th passing offense, 108th rushing offense; 27th scoring defense, 71st passing defense, 42nd rushing defense

As my readers know, I am a Michigan homer but I’m going to be as impartial here as possible. There is no reason this game should be on New Year’s Day. I guess the NCAA (read as: ESPN) prefer to have some of the biggest games spaced out on Dec 29 and Dec 30 but it’s hard to get excited by this matchup. Both teams are 8-4 and were a combined 1-5 against ranked teams (notably that single win was Michigan over #17 Florida in the first game of the season before we knew how bad Florida was going to be). The teams are also banged up: per Sports-Reference.com’s injury reports, the teams have a combined 22 players injured with varying severity.

Since Gamecocks WR Deebo Samuel has not returned to practice and will not play in the bowl, the most significant injury is likely to Michigan QB Brandon Peters. Peters started the year as the third stringer but was elevated to the starting role on Oct 28 against Rutgers. Wilton Speight got hurt in the team’s fourth game but wasn’t playing well anyway. Wolverines fans like myself got a taste of truly dreadful quarterback play when John O’Korn took over and struggled mightily. Peters has not been great (57.6% completion percentage, 4 TDs and 0 INTs) but he’s a significant improvement over the turnover prone O’Korn. The offense is led by a trio of running backs: Karan Higdon (929 yards, 11 TDs), Chris Evans (661-6) and Ty Isaac (548-2). Not surprisingly, none of the WRs are a factor. The team’s leading receiver is TE Sean McKeon (29-285-3). Keep an eye on FB Khalid Hill near the goal line. Hill only has 34 yards on 17 carries this season but he has three scores and had ten last year. Michigan’s defense is chock-full of NFL talent and they alone should warrant their own full-length piece. The biggest difference makers on that unit are DT Maurice Hurst and DE Rashan Gary. Hurst has 58 tackles, 13 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks; Gary has 55-10.5-4. Gary is the better pro prospect, don’t be surprised if he’s a Top 3 pick in 2018, but the stats belie his skill because of how often he’s double teamed. This Youtube video is a good cut-up of 2016 highlights for a number of 2017’s key defensive players, including LBs Chase Winovich and Mike McCray.

It’s a shame Deebo Samuel won’t be back for the bowl after a broken leg. Reports earlier in the season were that he could return but he has not practiced. Samuel is draft eligible but he should probably return for another year. He has fifteen career touchdowns (7 rushing, 5 receiving, 3 returning) and is an explosive game breaker. Sophomore QB Jake Bentley regressed in 2017 in terms of his rate stats and efficiency. I have not watched much of Bentley so I’m not able to provide much analysis here but I’ll bet that there’s a good chance he doesn’t start 2018 as the starter. TE Hayden Hurst is the team’s best NFL prospect. He had 41 receptions for 518 yards and 2 TDs this year. He has not been a high volume scorer (just 3 career TDs) but he is a good pass catcher and at least an average blocker in my film study. Hurst was my TE2 when I did 2018 rookie positional rankings in November; he’ll probably come in a little lower than that but he’s still a possible rookie pick in many fantasy leagues. LB Skai Moore is a four year contributor who has 346 career tackles, 5 career sacks and 14 career interceptions. Moore is WalterFootball.com’s 12th ranked OLB. His versatility in pass coverage should earn him a Day Two draft pick.

Michigan’s defense, without a doubt, will be the most dominant unit on the field in this one. I’ll make the homer pick and take my Wolverines. Prediction: Michigan

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, #7 Auburn (10-3) vs. #12 Central Florida (12-0), 12:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Auburn: 25th scoring offense, 68th passing offense, 22nd rushing offense; 10th scoring defense, 17th passing defense, 32nd rushing defense
UCF: 1st scoring offense, 7th passing offense, 34th rushing offense; 53rd scoring defense, 111th passing defense, 66th rushing defense

What a game this one is going to be. We all know the story surrounding outgoing UCF head coach Scott Frost so let’s not beat the proverbial dead horse because the spotlight should be on the players.

Auburn had a roller coaster of a season. Heading into SEC play they were 2-1 but with two poor wins and a close loss to #3 Clemson. They made it up to #10 but a loss to LSU bumped them all the way down to #21. From there they worked their way into the playoff picture with wins over #2 Georgia and #1 Alabama (both of whom are playing in the playoff despite their losses to Auburn). A poor showing in the rematch against Georgia sealed their outside-looking-in fate. Throughout the season they were led by two players on offense: QB Jarrett Stidham and RB Kerryon Johnson. I was lukewarm regarding Stidham for most of the year but he won me over against Alabama. I wrote him up that week and compared him favorably to Alex Smith. He’s an efficient and athletic game manager which sounds like an insult but it’s actually high praise (don’t forget that Smith was taken first overall in 2005). Stidham threw just one INT in SEC play but has a mixed bag of results in the year’s biggest games (good games against Georgia and Alabama, bad games against Georgia and Clemson). UCF has a poor passing defense so I expect Stidham to put up big numbers. Kerryon Johnson has battled some injuries this season but he was still very productive in eleven games (1,320 rushing yards, 23 rushing TDs, 23 receptions, 188 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). I did not rank Johnson in my Top 15 for 2018 rookie RBs but his success in November has me re-thinking that: over 700 totals yards and 15 total TDs. As far as non-offensive skill positions go, the Tigers have three NFL talents. At corner, Carlton Davis could land near the end of the first round. According to Pro Football Focus, Davis was the 50th ranked player in “Cover Snaps per Reception” and was average in passer rating against. Still, my preferred draft sources (WalterFootball.com and NFLDraftScout.com) favor him over guys I like more like Josh Jackson or Jaire Alexander. OG Braden Smith will be a second tier option for teams who miss on the elite prospects in a guard-heavy draft. K Daniel Carlson will end up getting drafted before the 6th round by some team desperate to end their kicking woes; he has played in 52 career games and hit on 90 of his 111 attempts (plus a perfect 195-195 record on PATs). In a game destined to come down to who has the ball last, Carlson could be a factor.

The UCF offense is all about QB McKenzie Milton. I have been praising him for a few weeks now because he is one of the purest passers I remember watching in recent memory. His deep ball looks effortless and he’s not afraid to throw it – he can just spin it. Milton played as a freshman in 2016 but exploded in 2017. He threw for 3,795 yards and 35 TDs and completed 69.2% of his passes. The biggest knock on Milton is his size. He’s listed at 5’11” and 177lbs and that might be soaking wet with two sets of shoulder pads on. I don’t think there is any way we talk about Milton as a pro prospect next year so enjoy him now as a fun to watch college QB. WR Tre’Quan Smith is the biggest benefactor of Milton’s prolific passing. He only caught 54 balls but went for 1,082 yards (an outstanding 20.0 yards per reception) and 13 TDs. Per PFF, Smith is fourth in the FBS in “Deep Receiving Catch Rate” by catching 68.4% of his deep attempts. Smith has 50+ receptions in each of his three seasons so who knows maybe another solid 2018 gets him drafted. UCF does not have any high level NFL hopefuls but you should read up on LB Shaquem Griffin. He was the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2016 after finishing with 92 tackles, 20 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. His stats all decreased this year but that doesn’t make him any less fun to watch. Griffin’s left hand was amputated in 1999 and against all odds he is pushing for a shot in the NFL. I envy people like Griffin who can overcome their physical limitations to do great things, I’m not sure I would have the strength to do so myself, and I don’t doubt for a second that he’ll make an impression on NFL scouts.

I’m not a gambler but if I were, I would avoid this one. I’m picking with my heart and not my head here: I love watching UCF and am rooting for them to show the playoff committee that they deserved a chance. Prediction: Central Florida

Citrus Bowl, #17 LSU (9-3) vs. #14 Notre Dame (9-3), 1 p.m. (ABC)

LSU: 72nd scoring offense, 86th passing offense, 30th rushing offense; 16th scoring defense, 20th passing defense, 22nd rushing defense
Notre Dame: 22nd scoring offense, 104th passing offense, 7th rushing offense; 32nd scoring defense, 51st passing defense, 49th rushing defense

LSU has earned some headlines over the last 24 hours as reports have come out that offensive coordinator Matt Canada is leaving the team. Canada’s offense is famous for its pre-snap shifts and movement. Ironically, Canada’s career is famous for its movement too because he can’t stick around anywhere too long (six different schools since 2010); maybe the gimmick just isn’t worth all of the effort and time it must take to learn. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly is always surrounded by rumors too because half the fan base hates him.

LSU was an enigma to me this season. Midway through the year, I was honestly surprised to see that 5-2 LSU was ranked #24. One of those losses was to Troy from the Sun Belt which would seem to be disqualifying. Of the other Power 5 teams in the Top 25, only Stanford (vs San Diego State) has a loss to a Group of 5 team; and that is without a doubt a stronger loss than LSU’s. I guess the committee felt that LSU’s win over then #10 Auburn more than made up for the bad loss (but by that logic Ohio State should have been in over Alabama). LSU has two players who will go at the top of drafts: DE Arden Key in the NFL Draft and RB Derrius Guice in your rookie draft. Guice has been as under the radar as the soon to be 1.02 can. Saquon Barkley has, deservedly, received a ton of attention this season but second tier backs like Ronald Jones and Bryce Love have stolen some of the shine that should be on Guice. He has confirmed that he will play in the Citrus Bowl which is good because I figured he might follow former teammate Leonard Fournette’s lead and skip the bowl. Guice had a solid season but was not as dominant as he was last year when sharing the backfield with Fournette. This year Guice finished with a 1,153-11 line. He’s not a big receiving threat (just 29 career receptions, 15 of which came this year) which could limit his utility at the start of his NFL career. It turns out that my feelings about Guice from August were spot-on: “I’m very interested to see how Guice does without Fournette…in 2017. If he can repeat even 75% of his production from 2016 he’ll be a first round NFL back. What I saw in Guice’s tape was not enough for me to push him to RB1 over Penn State’s Saquon Barkley, but at worst, Guice will be your 1.02 for 2018.” Injuries derailed Arden Key’s season and will cause him to miss the bowl. He still has an elite size and speed combination plus enough production to guarantee he finds the Top 10 in the NFL Draft. WR DJ Chark had 47 touches for 874 total yards and 4 TDs; his production is undraftable but his 6’4″ height could get him a look. CB Donte Jackson is WalterFootball.com’s 3rd ranked corner.

The strength of Notre Dame’s team, stop me if you’ve heard this before, is their offensive line. I would not at all be surprised for Notre Dame to have both the first tackle and the first guard drafted, both likely in the Top 15. T Mike McGlinchey (6’8″ and 315lbs) and G Quentin Nelson (6’5″ and 330lbs) were both first team All-Americans. They pave the way for RB Josh Adams and QB Brandon Wimbush to rack up rushing yards. Adams finished with 1,386 yards and 9 TDs while Wimbush had 766 and 14. I am not a fan of Wimbush because he is such an inaccurate passer but you can’t deny his ability as a runner. I have waffled on Adams throughout the season but I remain concerned about his size at the next level (he’s too tall – click the link for my analysis). In Week 9, I predicted he’d be a 3rd round rookie draft pick and I’ll stand by that now. It’s a shame that Wimbush has struggled to complete passes because WR Equanimeious St. Brown (my vote for the first player to break RSO’s draft software because of the length of this name) has such potential. St. Brown is long and lean (he really needs to add about 10lbs to make it in the NFL) with a good pedigree (4 star recruit, offers from a number of big schools). If he comes out he is going to have to dominate the combine because his production is below average (90-1,437-13 in two seasons as a starter). LB Nyles Morgan considered coming out after his junior year (88 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 4 sacks) but returned to school; unfortunately for Morgan, 2017 probably hurt his stock more than helped it (82-6.5-1). Both WalterFootball.com and NFLDraftScout.com have him as either a 7th rounder or undrafted.

I struggled to pick this one because I’m not a fan of either team. I’ll take LSU because of Guice and the strength of their defense (even without Key). Prediction: LSU

College Football Playoff Semifinal #1, Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual, #3 Georgia (12-1) vs #2 Oklahoma (12-1), 5 p.m. (ESPN)

Georgia: 23rd scoring offense, 111th passing offense, 11th rushing offense; 3rd scoring defense, 2nd passing defense, 12th rushing defense
Oklahoma: 4th scoring offense, 3rd passing offense, 27th rushing offense; 52nd scoring defense, 87th passing defense, 39th rushing defense

And here we are, finally the College Football Playoff, 39 games later. The Georgia vs Oklahoma matchup may lack the familiarity of the Alabama vs Clemson matchup but it will be equally entertaining featuring a great matchup of Oklahoma’s offense against Georgia’s defense. Baker Mayfield is apparently sick but there’s no way that it keeps him off the field.

Oklahoma’s season was momentarily disrupted by their Oct 7 loss to Iowa State but they went on to win eight straight including three wins against teams ranked #8, #10 and #11. Coming into the season, I had serious doubts about whether Baker Mayfield was going to 1) win the Heisman and 2) become a top NFL prospect. Turns out that I was wrong on both accounts. Mayfield has been exceptional this season. Who would have thought it would be possible to improve on his 2016 numbers, but he did. Mayfield finished with 4,340 yards (2nd in FBS), 41 passing TDs (2nd) and completed 71.0% of his passes (1st). His interceptions went down, his yards per attempt went up, and on and on. There just aren’t enough superlatives for what Mayfield accomplished on the field this season, especially considering that he is a former walk-on at Texas Tech. Mayfield does have some “character” question marks but I don’t think any of them are enough to ding his draft stock. I had Mayfield as my QB6 when I ranked potential 2018 rookies but I think he’ll likely be in the QB4 range by moving ahead of Luke Falk and Lamar Jackson. I expect Mayfield to be drafted in the first half of the first round in April; depending on his landing spot he could be a factor in fantasy leagues as a rookie. Mayfield is surrounded by a strong supporting cast composed mostly of underclassmen. That includes sophomore RB Rodney Anderson (960 yards, 11 TDs), freshman RB Trey Sermon (710-5) and freshman WR CeeDee Lamb (40 receptions, 741 yards, 7 TDs). Aside from Mayfield, the best pro prospect is TE Mark Andrews. Andrews is 6’5″ and 254lbs and often plays in the slot to maximize his size advantage over smaller corners and safeties. Andrews is certainly not the most well-rounded TE in the class but he will likely be the first drafted in 2018 rookie drafts for his receiving ability. In my early 2018 mock rookie draft I had Andrews as the 2.10 pick and the first TE off the board. Andrews led the team in receptions (58) and receiving TDs (8) and was second in receiving yards (906). LT Orlando Brown seems to be a polarizing player in mock drafts as I have seen him as high as the 2nd overall pick to the 18th overall pick to all the way down to 59th overall. The Sooners defense is led by DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Okoronkwo has two straight 70+ tackle and 8+ sack seasons. He landed on numerous second team All-American lists and was the Big 12’s Defensive Player of the Year (shared with Malik Jefferson).

Georgia had some quarterback controversy very early in the year when freshman Jake Fromm took over for the injured Jacob Eason in the season opener. Regardless of how well Eason played in 2016 as a freshman, there was no way he was getting the job back from Fromm once he took over. By virtue of their strong rushing game, Fromm is not counted on to throw the ball much (he had six games with fewer than ten completions) but when he does he is efficient. He ended the season with 21 TDs and 5 INTs and had rate stats significantly higher than those of Eason in 2016. The run game is a three-headed monster featuring Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and D’Andre Swift. Chubb led the way with 1,175 yards and 13 TDs; Michel had 948 yards and 13 TDs; Swift had 597 yards and 3 TDs. Neither Chubb nor Michel are pass catchers but Swift did have 15 receptions. Swift is a true freshman and a name to watch for next season after Chubb and Michel leave for the NFL. Both Chubb and Michel were drafted in my 2018 early mock draft (Chubb at 1.03, Michel at 2.06). Chubb has an injury history which may trouble some NFL teams but he’s been mostly healthy since his 2015 knee injury. Swift closed out the SEC Championship game against Auburn and had 94 total yards on 10 touches – look for a similar output here in the bowl because Georgia will need to get the ball out quick to neutralize the pass rush. The Georgia defense is led by two LBs who are bound to be IDP considerations in 2018. The lesser prospect is DE/OLB rusher Lorenzo Carter. Carter had 48 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 3 fumble recoveries this season. I researched him back in Week 4 and guessed he could end up as a first rounder – that may be a little high but he could still get picked on Day Two. Roquan Smith is an elite prospect. He was named SEC Defensive Player of the Year and is a first team All-American. In 2016 he had 95 tackles with no sacks, this year he improved to 113 tackles and 5 sacks. He’s the top draft eligible player at the position and will be a Top 10 draft pick.

I’m taking Oklahoma purely because of Baker Mayfield. If the game is close, he’ll find a way to win it. I worry that Georgia could get an early lead and milk to clock with their run game but if they start slow they’ll struggle to keep up with Mayfield, et al. Prediction: Oklahoma

College Football Playoff Semifinal #2, Allstate Sugar Bowl, #4 Alabama (11-1) vs #1 Clemson (12-1), 8:45 p.m. (ESPN)

Alabama: 12th scoring offense, 83rd passing offense, 10th rushing offense; 1st scoring defense, 7th passing defense, 3rd rushing defense
Clemson: 21st scoring offense, 52nd passing offense, 33rd rushing offense; 2nd scoring defense, 8th passing defense, 13th rushing defense

How often is the third installment of a trilogy the best? Probably never unless you’re a big Return of the Jedi fan. I don’t think this one will have the juice of the last two matchups because we’re missing the star that is Deshaun Watson. Don’t get me wrong it’ll be entertaining but we won’t be seeing this one on ESPN Classic in ten years.

Alabama snuck into the playoff in my opinion. If it were up to me, I would have taken Ohio State because they won their conference and did not have any FCS wins. Sure, Alabama has one less loss but in my mind they also have two less wins. Alabama is full of familiar names so we’ll go through them quickly. QB Jalen Hurts feels like he’s been around for half a decade but he’s just a sophomore. He is a run-first quarterback (he led the team in rush attempts with 137) who really improved as a passer this year. His yards per attempt went up to 9.0 from 7.3 and he threw just one INT (he also only lost one fumble). He didn’t run as much in 2017 as he did in 2016 but he also increased his yards per rush this year. Nick Saban trusts him with the ball in his hands and you can see why. In the preseason, my preferred Crimson Tide RB was Bo Scarborough; he disappointed this year with just 549 yards and 8 TDs. I will be lowering him in my 2018 rookie rankings (assuming he comes out). The best back this year was Damien Harris who is also draft eligible; he leapfrogged Scarborough in my early 2018 positional rankings. Harris ran for 906 yards and 11 TDs but added just 8 receptions. He’ll probably be an early 2nd round rookie pick for me next year. WR Calvin Ridley is still my WR1 despite the fact that many draft analysts disagree with me. Ridley’s production has been hampered by a run-heavy offense so of course we aren’t going to see production like Amari Cooper or Julio Jones. Ridley is a little too light so I would like to see him add about 10lbs in the offseason to approximate Cooper’s size. Ridley has a pedigree that few prospects can match: he was ESPN’s #1 recruit in his class and was the leading receiver for Alabama in three straight seasons in which they contended for the national championship. I’m not scared off by his decreasing production and will keep him as my WR1 until he proves me otherwise. Alabama has a number of defensive prospects including LB Rashaan Evans, S Ronnie Harrison and DT Da’Shawn Hand but the number one guy is DB Minkah Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has played both corner and safety so he offers versatility in both pass coverage and run support. His stats decreased from 2016 (66 tackles vs 55, 6 INTs vs 1) but he was battling a hamstring injury so that could have been the cause. He has four career interception return touchdowns so when he has the ball in his hands he can change a game too. Fitzpatrick is likely to go in the Top 3 in the NFL Draft and will instantly makeover a struggling defense.

I put out my first playoff ranking in Week 7 and had Clemson as the #1 team (I also had Alabama and Georgia, three out of four ain’t bad) and am happy to see them ascend back to the #1 spot after that loss to Syracuse. Like Alabama, the strength of the team lies on defense. There might be fix or six guys from the defense drafted this Spring. DT Christian Wilkins started the season with some preseason hype, played well and increased his stats in 2017 (52 tackles, 5.0 sacks). Wilkins will be a first rounder but challenging him to be the first pick from Clemson will be DE Clelin Ferrell. Ferrell is just a redshirt sophomore but he broke out in 2017 for 62 tackles, 17 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. The defense also has two tackle machines in Kendall Joseph and Dorian O’Daniel. The Clemson offense is similar to that of Alabama in that it features an efficient rush-first quarterback. That quarterback is Kelly Bryant. Bryant managed to play in each game despite an ankle injury and a concussion (he left that loss to Syracuse early due to the concussion). Bryant only threw for 13 TDs but rushed for 11 more. Freshman RB Travis Etienne is a burner who came on early in the season with some big plays to close out blowout wins. He finished strong too: he had six scores over the last four games. Etienne only had double digit carries twice so he’s not a high volume player but his speed means he’s only one missed tackle away from a touchdown. WR Deon Cain (55-659-6) is a top receiver prospect for many analysts but I’m not sold. He does not have elite size or production; I’ll wait and see how he does at the combine but I’m not sure his speed will make up for the other aspects. Cain was suspended for the semi-final and championship games in 2015 after a failed drug test which will factor into his draft evaluation too. WRs Hunter Renfrow and Ray-Ray McCloud are undersized but trustworthy possession receivers.

I’m not sure they deserve to be here based on their resume but the Tide deserve to be here based on their roster. Save for the defensive line, Alabama arguably has better players at every position than Clemson. Roll Tide. Prediction: Alabama

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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