Week 13 Street FA Report

Updated: November 29th 2022

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Zay Jones, WR, JAX (Owned 61%)

Week 12: 11 Rec/145 yards

Zay Jones has had at least five (5) receptions in each of the last three (3) games but his ownership is still not at the levels it should be in a deep roster format like RSO. Trevor Lawerence is slowly building towards the prospect he was projected to be and with a rising tide comes high seas for his pass catchers. Jones should be rostered near the 90th percentile and likely could be a regular flex starter for the remaining month of fantasy. If he is still available in your league, roster him.

Suggested Bid: $8,500,000

RB Adds

Tevin Coleman/Jordan Mason, RB, SF (Owned 9%/10%)

Week 12: N/A , 5 Car/25 yards

Death, taxes, and the San Francisco 49ers having running back injury concerns. Both Christian McCaffery and Elijah Mitchell missed snaps last week dealing with injuries with Mitchell’s season likely over with a diagnosis of 6-8 weeks for his recovery. Tevin Coleman had a big game in week 5 before being pushed to the inactives with the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey. Jordan Mason, because of his ability to play special teams, has been active the last few weeks and could also be in line for some touches moving forward. In games where McCaffrey is active I would want to have Mason over Coleman for this reason but if McCaffrey was to be inactive for any game expect Coleman to be the primary option with Mason as the complement.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

WR Add

Richie James, WR, NYG (Owned 12%)

Week 12: 5 Rec/41 yards, 1 TD

It is never a safe bet that a Giants’ wide receiver will be productive in a given week but Richie James saw his highest target count since Week 2 (6) and had an increase in snaps with Wan’Dale Robinson out. He also scored a touchdown at the end of the fourth quarter to push his scoring streak to two (2) consecutive games. The Giants have four (4) of their next five (5) games against Washington, Minnesota, and Indianapolis and are expected to be competitive throughout, providing ample opportunities for Daniel Jones to find the endzone once again.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Daniel Bellinger, TE, NYG (Owned 39%)

Week 12: N/A

Speaking of Daniel Jones pass catchers, Daniel Bellinger is expected to return in week 13 after missing four (4) games with a terrible eye injury. Before his injury though, Bellinger was having a great breakout as a low-end TE1 averaging four (4) receptions over his previous four (4) complete games. He also played on 94 percent of the snaps in Week 6, his last full game, and so he should be expected to pick up where he left off. If you are missing a tight end down the stretch Bellinger should be one of the better options currently available.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Byron Pringle, WR, CHI (Owned 10%)

Week 12: 2 Rec/12 yards, 1 TD

There were a lot of expectations for Darnell Mooney going into this season but with his season prematurely ending last week it now opens a large void of targets for the Bears’ passing game. One player who was acquired this offseason but was forgotten by most due to injury was Byron Pringle. Pringle could be the player who benefits most from Mooney’s injury and a late season breakout candidate. A lot will depend on when Justin Fields can return as neither Trevor Siemian nor Nathan Peterman inspire much confidence to start multiple Bears’ wide receivers so as we learn more about Fields’ availability consider Pringle as a roster stash for the playoffs.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 4 Street FA Report

Updated: September 27th 2022

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

 

Add of the Week

Zay Jones, WR, JAX (Owned 33%)

Week 3: 10 Rec/85 yards, 1 TD

Is Jacksonville good now? A thorough beating of Super Bowl contending LA Chargers may suggest that simply adding by subtracting Urban Meyer really has the Jaguars trending more towards where we hoped year two of the Trevor Lawrence experience would be. As Lawrence’s tide raises all ships, so too should Jay Jones’ ownership be much higher than one-third of leagues. Jones is averaging eight (8) targets and six (6) catches per game thus far and is tied for WR24 in PPR scoring. Simply put, Jones is putting up consistent WR2 production with a WR3 floor and he should not only be rostered but also started in most leagues going forward.

Suggested Bid: $5,000,000 – $8,000,000

 

RB Adds

Samaje Perine, RB, CIN (Owned 39%)

Week 3: 9 Car/47 yards, 2 Rec/14 yards, 1 TD

Every week a starting running back gets nicked up and then the questions about their availability and usage swirls for a couple weeks following. In week 3 Joe Mixon missed time with an ankle injury and the Bengals have a short week to turn around for Thursday Night Football. Mixon is expected to be “okay” but it’s always a smart plan to add the injured running backs’ backup a week early just in case. Samaje Perine has been the clear #2 behind Mixon and would see a full workload in his absence. Watch the news regarding Mixon this week.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

 

WR Add

Josh Reynolds, WR, DET (Owned 15%)

Week 3: 6 Rec/96 yards

Every year I seem to find at least one week where I am allowed to recommend my favorite underdog wide receiver, Josh Reynolds. With Amon-Ra St. Brown coming on the scene last year and the Lions signing DJ Chark, I was not sure if the streak would continue. But Reynolds saw additional action last week due to St. Brown’s injury and made the most of it with six (6) receptions. St. Brown’s injury is not expected to be long but his immediate status is in question which leaves a window of a few weeks that Reynolds could be a low-ranking flex play. The Lions are surprisingly one of the most consistent scoring offenses in the league so both targets and scoring opportunities are readily available for Reynolds if called upon.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

 

TE Add

Daniel Bellinger, TE, NYG (Owned 26.5%)

Week 3: 4 Rec/40 yards

I love the prospect of Jelani Woods but do not chase the tight end who scores two (2) touchdowns on just 16 snaps. Instead, look to add Daniel Bellinger who continued to look good in the first month of his rookie campaign and who saw five (5) targets on Monday Night Football. The other Giants’ tight ends are being used sparingly through the first three (3) games and even less in the passing game. With Sterling Shepard out for the season will the coaching staff move more to include Kenny Golladay in the 3WR sets they have been running or will they look to use more I-Formation giving Bellinger more route participation? Based on Golladay’s usage over the first three (3) weeks I would think that Bellinger, or our sleeper add, have a better shot at seeing an increase in targets than Golladay.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

 

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Richie James, WR, NYG (Owned 18%)

Week 3: 4 Rec/36 yards

Sterling Shepard went down on the last play of the game with a freak knee injury that has been confirmed as season-ending. In his absence the expected new WR1 in New York might just be Richie James who has been a surprise thus far in terms of his production. James has far and away been the second most targeted receiver behind Shepard so his production floor should increase from this point on. The Giants are still a limited offense so there are many WR2s in other offenses I would prioritize over James but any team’s first option at receiver needs to be rostered in more than 20 percent of leagues. James will have several spot starts in the flex as we head into bye weeks this season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 9 Street FA Report

Updated: November 3rd 2021

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Jeremy McNichols/Adrian Peterson, RB – TEN (Owned 36.5%/42%)

The surprising loss of Derrick Henry leaves many contenders scrambling for a replacement running back for the back half of the season. No player can truly replace Henry and the floor of fantasy production that he brings each week, however. The best managers can do is try to secure one of his two supposed replacements, Jeremy McNichols and recently signed veteran Adrian Peterson. Before last week I would say that it would unfathomable for a team to lean heavily on a running back who has not been in their system right out of the gate but the Eagles just gave two (2) touchdowns to Jordan Howard, more on him later, so anything goes. Peterson is fresh legs to a team that does like to feature the run so if he is still available he is worth a stash to find out what role he can play for the remainder of the season. Expect Jeremy McNichols to be the primary option in the immediate future and at worst he should be splitting carries with Peterson and receiving most of third/passing down work. He was already assuming that role with Henry in the lineup with 21 receptions through seven (7) weeks.

Suggested Bid: $6,000,000 or 70% of remaining cap space

RB Adds

Jordan Howard, RB – PHI (Owned 14%)

Week 8: 12 Car/57 yards, 2 TDs

I probably should have seen this coming last week but I figured there was no way that Howard was going to be featured as much as he was in week 8 after not being active for any previous games this season. Luckily the Eagles blew out the Lions enough that there was enough to go around with last week’s recommendation of Boston Scott, who also had two (2) touchdowns, but it was still concerning to see Howard involved as much as he was around the goal line. In games where the Eagles are not as dominant, it could be feast-or-famine for who gets the scoring opportunities. As he has in past seasons, Howard could be a weekly Hail Mary option for those who play in standard-scoring leagues where touchdowns are king.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Derrick Gore, RB – KC (Owned 1%)

Week 8: 11 Car/48 yards, 1 TD

Derrick Gore got his first chance to have a serious role in Kansas City’s backfield on Monday night and he took full advantage averaging 4.4 yards/carry and scoring a touchdown. Expectations should be tempered as he only played on 16 snaps in week 8 compared to Darrel Williams’ 52 but touching the ball on 68 percent of your snaps is a good sign that if the coaching staff puts him in the game he is going to be used. He would need at least another game or two of similar production before being considered a flex starter but depth is important at the position regardless of your team’s current state. Spend moderately to see if his role grows into something more over the next few weeks.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

TE Add

Albert Okwuegbunam, TE – DEN (Owned 21%)

Week 8: 3 Rec/34 yards

Noah Fant has been diagnosed with COVID-19 which puts his Week 9 availability in jeopardy. This opens the door for second-year tight end Albert Okwuegbunam to see an increased role in Denver’s offense. Albert O played 49 percent of the snaps in his first week back from the IR and with taking Fant’s role potentially for a week or two his snaps would get closer to Fant’s 80-90 percent range. Many managers work in a rotation of tight ends each week anyways so if you need a player who would have minimal competition at the position, Albert O is a sleeper to see back-end TE1 numbers for the next two (2) weeks.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Bid (<25%)

Zay Jones, WR – LV (Owned 3.5%)

Week 8: BYE

It is terrible news coming out of Las Vegas about Henry Ruggs, and aside from football right now there are more complicated things going on in his current situation to be available for the Raiders anytime soon. The team will have to move on though and the offense will miss the deep threat speed he had. Derek Carr looks for taking deep shots throughout the game with Nelson Agholor benefiting last year and Ruggs in the early part of this season. In Ruggs’ absence, Zay Jones may be an under-the-radar add this week based on his skill set and how his role might be seen in this offense. We also do not know the status of how Darren Waller’s injury has healed over the bye week so it could be Hunter Renfrew and the rest of the field to make up the difference. Stash Jones in case the coaching staff sees him as one of the benefactors of Ruggs being out of the lineup.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Mid Preseason Report

Updated: August 30th 2017

There have been 33 preseason games played which have given us a nice preview of what the 2017 season could be. Several players have already flashed potential while others are starting to make owners very nervous. Here is a list of players that have caught my eye (for good or bad) and what I think it means for their regular season.

↑ 2nd Round Rookie Risers

Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams have been impressive while running with their first team offenses in their first two games. Both have shown they can burst through the middle as well as make plays in the passing game. Hopefully, their usage hasn’t been a mirage due to other players (Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram for New Orleans and Ty Montgomery for Green Bay) not being in the lineup. Regardless, both are in high scoring offenses that should benefit their specific skill set, Kamara through the passing game and Williams with frequent goal line carries. Depending on where they were selected in your rookie draft it might be worth it to inquire what their costs would be now. After the usual crew (Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey, Mixon) these two RBs might have the highest floor for 2017.

↑ McCaffrey the Real 1.01?

It was an interesting quandary as to who should be chosen with the first pick in rookie drafts. Early in the offseason, it was Dalvin Cook but a poor combine dropped him from the pole position. Leonard Fournette was then the next man up and he along with Corey Davis have been the most consistent 1.01 in drafts May through July.  But now that the pads are on and the tackles are real it might have been a steal to get Christian McCaffrey at 1.03 or 1.04. He looks like he will fit perfectly with the Panthers play style and we haven’t even seen how defenses will react to read plays with Cam Newton under center. I expect Jonathan Stewart to have a role but this could be an even better complementary backfield than Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill was in Cincinnati. With his skills in the passing game, McCaffrey looks like an easy candidate for 60-70 targets and should be pushing 1,000 total yards. In PPR leagues that’s more than what I would want out of my 1.01 selection.

↓ LeGarrette Blount

LeGarrette Blount is the most Patriots system player. No other player could go from 18 touchdowns with one team to a potential cut candidate with a different team. With reports suggesting that Blount is slightly overweight and has shown that he might not be a good fit for Doug Pederson’s stretch and shotgun run game it really wouldn’t be a surprise to see him not on the roster week 1. Even if he does stay with the Eagles it will be difficult to expect a consistent weekly total. His value will solely be on whether or not he scores a touchdown in a given week. Unless you play in standard leagues Blount is a player that will likely have Matt Asiata-like value.

↑ Corey Clement

With the news of Blount and maybe even Wendell Smallwood not being roster locks for the Eagles, it makes sense to try and find who the next man up will be. Darren Sproles will always be the satellite back and will be more featured on passing plays. That leaves Corey Clement, the UDFA rookie out of Wisconsin as an interesting option for deeper leagues. He looked good running against a strong Bills defense (4.2 yards/carry and a TD) last week. While he’s unlikely to be used day 1 this may be a Rob Kelley like situation where by midseason he’s pushing for the most touches of the more traditional RBs. He is worth monitoring for now and if either Blount or Smallwood don’t make the roster he might be worth adding.

 

↓ All Indianapolis Colts

I’m tired of this “will he, won’t he” game that the Colts have been playing with Andrew Luck and his shoulder injury. At some point, his lack of presence in practice and in preseason games suggests that he is not healthy and will be missing some games. How many is anybody’s guess at this point but it’s hard to trust any Colts players with the possibility of Scott Tolzien running the offense. T.Y. Hilton is the only player that should hold some consistency week-to-week but even he takes a mild hit. If you haven’t already sold Dante Moncrief I’m not sure what you’re waiting for. His touchdown dependency is a scary thing to bet on and without Luck in 8 games the last two seasons the offense has only averaged 17.5 points a game (Tolzien’s only game they scored 7 points!). Even with a rumor that Brock Osweiler may be on the Colts radar for a trade that shouldn’t get people excited about what the Colts will have going on this season.

↑ Zay Jones

Sometimes a player’s situation just trumps all the previous biases you have against him and you go from avoiding to actively seeking to acquire. Jordan Howard was that player for me last year and Zay Jones looks like he will be my 2017 choice. Sammy Watkins is gone, so is Anquan Boldin, and Jordan Matthews is JAG (Just A Guy) material. A player who is no stranger to being the first option in his offense, he had 158!! receptions last season at East Carolina, Jones is the definition of a possession receiver who just also happens to have 4.45 speed. While I’m less optimistic about long term value because of the history of the Bills and their run first offensive scheme, Jones should be one of the most targeted rookies in 2017.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

2017 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v3.0

Updated: August 23rd 2017

This August update was the hardest mock I have done so far for RSO (including my first 2018 mock which is yet to be published).  It’s easy to fall into the trap of weighting preseason action too heavily so I tried to fight that urge as much as .  I’m sure you will disagree with a number of these picks and I’d like to hear about it @robertfcowper on Twitter.  Please note, I am writing this before the third week of preseason games which is typically when we see the most “realistic” preseason football and you’ll likely be reading it during or after those games.

1.01 – LEONARD FOURNETTE, RB, JAGUARS
1.02 – COREY DAVIS, WR, TITANS
1.03 – CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, RB, PANTHERS

I’ve had Fournette and Davis as my 1.01 and 1.02, in that order, from the beginning and don’t plan to change them now. Fournette’s value may be negatively impacted by QB Blake Bortles if he continues to struggle like he has so far in the preseason and Davis’s injury hurts his immediate value slightly. Neither falls behind McCaffrey for me, but McCaffrey’s solid preseason work pushes him into a close third in my first tier. If you need a RB over WR, I wouldn’t fault you for getting caught up in the CMC hype at 1.02.

1.04 – DALVIN COOK, RB, VIKINGS
1.05 – JOE MIXON, RB, BENGALS

In addition to moving McCaffrey out of this tier, I decided to flip-flop Cook and Mixon. Mixon may end up with the more productive career over time but on RSO we are drafting for more immediate production as rookie contracts are only three or four years long. Cook has an easier route to RB1 touches with Latavius Murray in front of him rather than Mixon who has Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard to battle.

1.06 – ZAY JONES, WR, BILLS

I was high on Zay previously having him at 1.10 but since July his stock has risen due to personnel moves in Buffalo. Sammy Watkins was traded, Jordan Matthews was acquired and Anquan Boldin signed and promptly retired. Ultimately that’s a net positive for Jones. The Bills won’t be great, but neither was East Carolina.

1.07 – OJ HOWARD, TE, BUCS

Howard stays the course here at 1.07. I haven’t seen or heard anything that encourages me to move him up or down yet.  Don’t forget to grab Cameron Brate too because like most rookie TEs he will need time to develop.

1.08 – KAREEM HUNT, RB, CHIEFS
1.09 – D’ONTA FOREMAN, RB, TEXANS

Foreman has had better success so far during the preseason but I think Hunt has a higher ceiling for the near future. Even if Hunt can’t beat out Spencer Ware for the starting role, he will have value in the passing game. Foreman could see short yardage work so a line of 350 yards but 6-7 TDs wouldn’t be surprising. I originally put players like David Njoku and John Ross ahead these two because of their upside but I’m leaning more towards the sure thing as we get closer to the season.

1.10 – MIKE WILLIAMS, WR, CHARGERS

In true dynasty formats, Williams should not fall this far. However, in our RSO format, there’s a good chance you lose out on 20-30% of Williams’ rookie contract due to his current injuries. His ceiling is higher than that of Jones, Howard, Hunt and Foreman but his floor is lower.

2.01 – ALVIN KAMARA, RB, SAINTS

I’ve hated on Kamara a lot. It’s time to move him up my list though. So far this preseason he has just nine carries but they have been very productive. He has a 50 yard TD carry and 96 total yards; even if you remove the long carry, Kamara still averages 5.75 yards per carry on his other carries. He’ll also be a factor in the passing game, which like with Hunt, will allow him to offer some value as a rookie even with limited carries.

2.02 – DAVID NJOKU, TE, BROWNS

The bloom might be off the rose for Njoku. A report from a few weeks ago showed coach Hue Jackson’s frustration at Njoku’s hands. Plus he suffered an ankle injury in Monday’s game against the Giants (too soon as of this writing to know if it’s serious). He’s still an athletic freak with high upside so he’s worth a speculative pick at the top of the second.

2.03 – JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, WR, STEELERS
2.04 – SAMAJE PERINE, RB, REDSKINS

JJSS has just one catch and one carry so far but battled a minor injury to start camp. Perine has 14 carries so far (plus one 29 yard catch). I have not heard any glowing camp reports about either guy so they are basically holding steady despite being on crowded depth charts.

2.05 – MITCHELL TRUBISKY, QB, BEARS
2.06 – PATRICK MAHOMES, QB, CHIEFS
2.07 – DESHAUN WATSON, QB, TEXANS

I’m hedging my bet by putting all three of these quarterbacks together at this point but I truly believe the value in RSO drafts is too good to pass up. To lock up these rising stars for three or four years on a cheap contract is just a huge advantage. Sure, the guy you take has to “hit” but that’s the case with all of these rookies. I am a huge Mahomes fan and am encouraged by his 73% completion percentage and 3 TDs so far but it’s hard to ignore how good Trubisky has looked too and he has a better chance of starting Week 1. Watson will likely win the starting job but I have not been a fan of his so I’d rather take Mahomes and wait.

2.08 – JOHN ROSS, WR, BENGALS
2.09 – EVAN ENGRAM, TE, GIANTS
2.10 – CURTIS SAMUEL, RB, PANTHERS

These three have fallen significantly in my eyes. Ross, no surprise, has been injured. 2.08 might be harsh for Ross but I won’t own any shares of him this season if I have to take him in the first. I’m still worried about Engram’s lack of size and whether he can earn enough snaps at WR behind OBJ, Marshall and Shepard (although recent injuries to those three could linger and open the door). Samuel is supposed to be a “jack of all trades” type but until I see him in action and that the Panther’s offense can support him and CMC, he’ll be a “master of none” for me.

3.01 – TAYWAN TAYLOR, WR, TITANS
3.02 – KENNY GOLLADAY, WR, LIONS
3.03 – COOPER KUPP, WR, RAMS
3.04 – CHRIS GODWIN, WR, BUCS
3.05 – DEDE WESTBROOK, WR, JAGUARS

This group of receivers was tough to sort and I made a number of changes before settling on this. Westbrook and Golladay join the mock based off the success they have had in limited action thus far this preaseason. Westbrook had a single catch for a 42 yard touchdown in his first game and followed that with 6-131. Golladay started strong with a 3-53-2 game against the Colts and fell to just one reception for six yards against the Jets. Westbrook has off-field concerns and is likely a terrible human being but if he can ignite a stagnant Jaguars offense he’ll get some looks. Golladay’s hype train is speeding out of the station with plenty of hangers-on but I’m not ready to push him that high in my rankings after four NFL receptions. The other three receivers were in my original mock: Taylor and Godwin down a few picks and Kupp moved up. I still believe in Taylor who has taken advantage of Corey Davis missing time in camp and in the preseason and has 7 for 97 yards; pushing the QBs higher means Taylor falls to the third through no fault of his own. Kupp has a 8-105-1 line through two games. Sammy Watkins coming to town kills any hope of Kupp being the lead target for Jared Goff but he should beat out Robert Woods, et al by midseason. I’m disappointed so far by Godwin who has caught just three of his six targets. I am still hopeful that all of the attention devoted to Mike Evans, DJax and OJ Howard mean Godwin will have sneaky production.

3.06 – MARLON MACK, RB, COLTS
3.07 – WAYNE GALLMAN, RB, GIANTS

Signing Christine Michael this offseason threw some cold water on my Mack ranking.  Why sign a journeyman like Michael to a crowded backfield after drafting Mack?  Michael ended up getting hurt and is out for the season, but Mack was banged up too and missed the start of the preseason. Frank Gore and Robert Turbin can carry the load to start the season so the Colts might take it slow with Mack. Encouragingly, he did have seven touches for 49 yards in his first game action. I’ve had a man crush on Gallman since I started researching the 2016 Clemson Tigers and I haven’t given it up yet, although I continue to drop Gallman down my mock draft (2.09 to 3.05 to 3.07). I don’t believe in Paul Perkins and I’m not sure the Giants do either since they have more draft capital invested in Gallman than Perkins.

3.08 – JAKE BUTT, TE, BRONCOS
3.09 – DESHONE KIZER, QB, BROWNS

The true value of these two players will come down to when they get on the field. I rank them here with the expectation that they will start a majority of the season for their teams. Butt would have been a first round NFL talent if he wasn’t injured – he’s good value here. This late in your rookie draft, Kizer represents good value too even if he’s just QB28 at the end of the season. I’d rather lock these guys up on cheap long-term contracts now before their value crests in my auction draft (if it’s announced that they will be starting Week 1) or in free agency (if they get on the field a little later).

3.10 – TARIK COHEN, RB, BEARS

Cohen has impressed in this first two weeks of the preseason. His size is worrisome (he’s just 5’6″ and 180lbs) but it hasn’t hindered him yet. Cohen leads rookie RBs in yards (181) and leads the Bears backs in attempts (18). His size will keep him from being a workhorse in the NFL but he will have a role. It’s interesting to note that the Bears invested a higher draft pick in Cohen (4th round) than Jordan Howard (5th), even after Howard’s great rookie season.


Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, ESPN’s First Draft podcast, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

Slicing ’17 Rookie Class into 12 Tiers

Updated: July 23rd 2017

According to a recent poll on our RSO Twitter feed, about 50% of RSO leagues have not yet conducted their rookie drafts.  As you’re continuing your preparation, I’m here to provide my tiered rankings of the top 50 rookies.  Navigating three to four rounds of a rookie draft isn’t easy.  My tiers are designed to help you know when to buy or sell so you can accumulate the best possible rookie class, at great value!

So let’s begin…

Tier 1

1. Corey Davis WR TEN

While Corey Davis may not be quite the same level of prospect as recent 1.01/1.02 picks Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and Todd Gurley, he’s undoubtedly the best prospect in this class and the only receiver I’m willing to bet will be a true NFL #1.  Putting my money where my mouth is, I already have 3 shares and am aiming for more.

Tier 2

2. Joe Mixon RB CIN
3. Christian McCaffrey RB CAR
4. Leonard Fournette RB JAX

To say you can’t go wrong with picks 2, 3, and 4 would be inaccurate. In a few years, all three will have differing values. But at this point, the margins between each are razor-thin.

Consistent with my general strategy, I’m going to often choose the most talented player regardless of their potential non-talent-related downfalls such as injury history, off-the-field issues, etc. I’ll take Joe Mixon at 2.  He’s the only RB in this class that I believe truly has an elite RB1 ceiling. My rankings 3rd and 4th ranked players differ depending on your scoring system. PPR -> Christian McCaffrey. Standard -> Leonard Fournette.

Tier 3

5. Dalvin Cook RB MIN

While a sub-10th percentile SPARQ score terrifies me, Dalvin Cook‘s college tape tells a different story. I firmly believe that he’s the most talented back on the Minnesota Vikings and it isn’t remotely close. How soon he will earn playing time may be another story. He will need to improve drastically in pass-protection and ball security to earn playing time.

After the 1.05 pick, this draft class falls off a cliff. If you’re slated to pick 6th or later in the first round of a rookie draft this year, I’d advise shopping that pick for help now or 2018/2019 picks.

Tier 4

6. Mike Williams WR LAC

Back injuries are scary. Back injuries are especially scary when learning a NFL playbook for this first time, getting acclimated to a NFL playbook, and completing for playing time among a crowded group of talented receivers. Even if he fully recovers from this injury in time for the season, he’s unlikely to contribute in a meaningful way this season. Still my 1.06, I’d only make that pick if I’ve exhausted every trade possible without coming to an agreement. If Mike Williams struggles for playing time, but appears healthy when on the field, he might be a buy-low target at the trade deadline or during the 2018 off-season

For more info on his injury and the potential need for surgery if the non-surgical route doesn’t work, I’d recommend listening to the AUDIBLE LIVE! Podcast from June 8th as Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel on Twitter) provides great insight.

Tier 5

7. Alvin Kamara RB NO
8. John Ross WR CIN
9. David Njoku TE CLE
10. Evan Engram TE NYG
11. Samaje Perine RB WAS
12. O.J. Howard TE TB
13. Kareem Hunt RB KC

Even if he doesn’t develop as an inside runner, Alvin Kamara will still be a very productive pass-catching back in the NFL. The Saints offense is very RB friendly and neither Adrian Peterson or Mark Ingram are locks for the Saints’ 2018 roster.

Love John Ross‘ talent, but hate the landing spot. Andy Dalton isn’t the ideal QB for him, especially behind a poor offensive line that may force them to focus on getting the ball out of his hands quickly.

My tight end rankings are based on my belief in their long-term upside. Love David Njoku‘s talent and his situation isn’t as bad as many believe, especially with the release of Gary Barnidge. Evan Engram should settle in as a big slot receiver, though classified as a TE, for the Giants once they release he can’t handle the typical blocking duties of an in-line TE.

O.J. Howard likely will end up as the best NFL TE, but I’m worried that his talent as a blocker may limit his fantasy potential.

Samaje Perine doesn’t feel like a 1st rounder to me.  I would do everything possible to trade the 1.11 pick for a random 2018 1st. He was graded by many as a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick dynasty rookie pick, but has catapulted into the 1st round due to his promising landing spot in Washington. Betting on him to the next Jordan Howard is dangerous. Barring that type of breakout, I expect Washington to be in play for signing a free agent or drafting a top RB prospect in 2018.

Rounding out this tier is Kareem Hunt – a running back who dazzled on tape, but disappointed at the NFL combine. Joining a Spencer Ware in the Kansas City backfield, many believe Hunt will overtake Ware for the majority of carries by mid-season. I believe this is far from a lock and would expect Ware to lead KC in carries this year, by a 2:1 ratio.

Tier 6

14. JuJu Smith-Schuster WR PIT
15. Chris Godwin WR TB
16. Carlos Henderson WR DEN
17. James Conner RB PIT
18. Zay Jones WR BUF
19. Curtis Samuel WR CAR

Higher on Carlos Henderson than most, I love his ability after the catch. It’s also worth mentioning that aging receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders aren’t long-term barriers to playing time in Denver.

Tier 7

20. Taywan Taylor WR TEN
21. D’Onte Foreman RB HOU
22. Jeremy McNichols RB TB

Loved Taywan Taylor pre-draft and couldn’t have hoped for a much better landing spot.  Great target in the late 2nd or early 3rd round of your draft.

Tier 8

23. Melvin Mack RB IND
24. Kenny Galladay WR DET
25. ArDarius Stewart WR NYJ
26. Gerald Everett TE LAR
27. Joe Williams RB SF
28. Josh Reynolds WR LAR
29. Chad Williams WR ARI

This group includes several recent ADP risers: Kenny Galladay, ArDarius Stewart, Joe Williams, and Chad Williams. In each of my drafts, I want to land several players from this tier.

Tier 10

30. Jamaal Williams RB GB
31. Aaron Jones RB GB
32. Patrick Mahomes QB KC

In both redraft and dynasty, Ty Montgomery is the back I want in Green Bay though it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Packers drafted 3 running backs. If everything breaks right for either rookie back, Williams and Jones could be featured in one of the NFL’s best offenses. That alone makes them solid values in the 3rd round.

If early rookie drafts are any indication, I’m going to be heavily invested in Patrick Mahomes. While he’ll need to be more consistent to succeed at the next level, I can’t help but drool at his raw ability. His landing spot, under Andy Reid’s tutelage, could not be better. Let’s not forget that Andy Reid used to be criticized during his Eagles days for passing too much.  Mahomes will be put into position to not only succeed, but also develop into a QB1 in fantasy.

Tier 11

33. Cooper Kupp WR LAR
34. Wayne Gallman RB NYG
35. Amara Dorboh WR SEA
36. Deshaun Watson QB HOU
37. Adam Shaheen TE CHI
38. DeShone Kizer QB CLE
39. Mitchell Trubisky QB CHI

Tier 12

40. Ishmael Zamora WR OAK
41. Jonnu Smith TE TEN
42. Josh Malone WR CIN
43. Jehu Chessen WR KC
44. Chad Kelly QB DEN
45. Dede Westbrook WR JAX

Tier 13

46. Shelton Gibson WR PHI
47. Jake Butt TE DEN

48. Elijah McGuire RB NYJ
49. Brian Hill RB ATL
50. Donnel Pumphrey RB PHI


Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999.  Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers dynasty and keeper leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each.  Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO

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