The 2-2-1 RB Strategy
I recently read a post on Football Guys about the 2-2-1 running back strategy. To be honest, it was the first time I have heard about it and am not sure how I’ve missed it all these years. Zero RB is all the rage right now so I thought I would like to try and combine the two strategies. Since RSO is essentially a dynasty format, I’m going to expand it to 2-2-1-1 to add in a young lottery ticket to help balance the roster for the longer term. Using average annual contract values and lengths, I identified the following combination of running backs to illustrate the idea. Whether you need to trade for these players or can snag them in your free agent auction, it shouldn’t cost too much which I think will help keep your dynasty on the championship track.
If you’d like to view the full Football Guys article, click here.
The Picks
- Jonathan Stewart (Average Remaining Contract Length: 1.6 years; Average Annual Contract Value: $7.3 mil)
- Cameron Artis-Payne (2.8 years; $1.2 mil)
- Isaiah Crowell (2 years; $3.5 mil)
- Duke Johnson (3.2 years; $2.0 mil)
- Theo Riddick (1.2 years; $1.3 mil)
- Ka’Deem Carey (2 years; $1.0 mil)
- TOTAL Salary = $16.3 mil or just under 10% of your salary cap
The Reasons
I decided to double down on the Panthers and Browns backfields – certainly not two popular options. Based on average annual contract value, Stewart is the 28th highest paid RB and comes in as our RB1. I don’t mind Stewart here because if we’re spending this little on RB1 we should be stacked elsewhere. Furthermore, I’d only be tied to him for 1-2 more years which is only about as long as the Panthers will give him anyway (his contract is front loaded, 2018 is just $1 mil base which screams to me that they planned that to minimize the cap hit when they cut him). Sure he’ll lose goal line work to Cam but he’s good enough for what we’re trying to accomplish here.
Pairing Stewart with CAP is easy because he’s the obvious handcuff for right now and doesn’t have much standalone value so another owner won’t be interested. If CAP becomes the starter in 2017 or 2018 we would have him under contract on the cheap. If he doesn’t make it past 2016 on the squad, remember he’s a cheap 5th round pick, our cap hit is minimal. There’s a decent chance we’d go into 2017 with neither of these Panther running backs but that’s okay; our four other picks are all potentially looking at new contracts with other teams in the near future so if one hits we can use the open spot(s) to grab their handcuff.
Depending on whether you play PPR or not will determine which of the Browns RBs will be your RB2. Crowell will get a majority of the carries, and goal line work, but Johnson will be more productive on passing downs. Trying to guess each week which will be better is going to drive you mad so pick one and stick with it. On bye weeks you can start both since they have value independent of each other but I wouldn’t recommend it each week. I don’t love having Crowell for two years since he’s a free agent after this year but maybe that motivates him to succeed and lead somewhere next year as the clear starter.
For my first single RB pick, I’d go with Theo Riddick. I am partial to Riddick since I play in PPR leagues but even without PPR he still has some value. Some quick math puts his non-PPR value at 6.3 points per game, but add in the receptions and it balloons to 11.3. If I can sign him for more than one year, I wouldn’t mind having Riddick in a non-PPR also for the fact that his deal with the Lions expires this year so in 2017 he could be the lead back for a team that would actually let him carry the ball. Riddick only started one year at Notre Dame but averaged more than 14 carries a game that year so he can handle a bigger work load than the 2-3 carries he gets now.
For my second single RB pick, I’d go with Ka’Deem Carey. I started the preseason sold on Jeremy Langford but that has changed as I’ve done more research. There’s a good chance Carey sits on your bench with little value this year but there is a non-zero chance that he overtakes Langford and beats out rookie Jordan Howard. I thought Carey was older than he is – but he was only drafted in 2014. In 2012 and 2013 at Arizona, Carey totaled 3,814 yards and 44 total TDs. If I’m going to take a multi-year lottery ticket on a young running back, Carey is it.
