The Watch List: 2018 Week 6 Preview

Updated: October 6th 2018

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my weekly picks and observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

Games to Watch

#19 Texas vs #7 Oklahoma, 12:00pm on FOX: The Red River Rivalry. I love that they kick this one off at 11:00am local time. I think it gives it even more of a “this is something special” atmosphere. The last time both teams were ranked was 2012 (which capped off a run of seven straight ranked matchups). Oklahoma won that one 63-21 and I fear the 2018 edition will go the same way. OU hasn’t missed a step without RB Rodney Anderson like I thought they might. QB Kyler Murray and WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown are an exciting pair to watch. Brown is averaging 22.7 yards per catch and seems to always be behind the last defender (see below for more on Brown). WR CeeDee Lamb may not be as explosive, but I think he’ll end up being the better pro (he’s no slouch with his stats either, 19-348-5). Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has increased his completion percentage and efficiency this year but the difference in talent (and supporting cast) between he and Murray will be evident.

#4 Clemson at Wake Forest, 3:30pm on ESPN: Uh oh. Clemson fans’ worst fears were realized early in the contest against Syracuse when true frosh Trevor Lawrence went down with an injury. I’m not sure if Lawrence suffered a concussion or just a neck strain as has been reported so who knows if he plays in this one. Either way, it will be a story line to follow. Is it too late for Kelly Bryant to return? Can third-stringer Chase Brice keep the team winning in Lawrence’s absence? Regardless of who is taking the snaps, Clemson’s offense should be good enough with RBs Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster to beat Wake, especially when you factor in their dominant front seven.

#5 LSU at #22 Florida, 3:30pm on CBS: I’ve somehow gone five weeks without watching much of #5 LSU so this will be the week I get my fill during an iffy 3:30pm window. I did watch parts of LSU’s matchup with Auburn and was nonplussed with QB Joe Burrow. RB Nick Brossette is 4th in the conference with 481 yards rushing and has 6 rushing TDs. Florida has the third-worst rushing defense in the SEC (172.6 yards per game) so I expect Brossette to pace the offense. As long as Burrow continues to take care of the ball, the Tigers should be victorious again.

#6 Notre Dame at #24 Virginia Tech, 8:00pm on ABC: Rewind a week and it would be hard to believe that the Hokies would be ranked again after a crushing loss to Old Dominion. Va. Tech, however, rebounded with a strong win against Duke with backup quarterback Ryan Willis at the helm. Speaking of quarterbacks, Notre Dame has undoubtedly found theirs in Ian Book. Book has completed 74.3% of his passes to go with 6 TDs and zero INTs. I tend to root against the Irish but having them undefeated is good for the sport.

Fresno State at Nevada, 10:30pm on ESPNU: Before the season started I picked Fresno to lose the division to San Diego State. Now that the Aztecs have lost RB Juwan Washington and won their last three games unconvincingly, the door may be open for the Bulldogs. Fresno features the league’s best QB-WR duo in Marcus McMaryion (1,050-7) and KeeSean Johnson (394-3). I’ll also be watching because I have McMaryion and Johnson on my college football fantasy team!

Players to Watch

Honorable Mentions

  • Steven Montez, QB, Colorado: Montez is the nation’s leader in completion percentage through five weeks (75.8%). He fell into playing time as a redshirt freshmen and was the full time starter in 2017 as a sophomore, so he has experience. Montez also has NFL size at 6050/235 and is starting to get pub on my Twitter timeline as a potential draft sleeper. If he plays well against USC, Washington and Utah he’ll continue to climb rankings and will deserve further film study if it looks like he’ll come out.
  • Ryquell Armstead, RB, Temple: Armstead earned some buzz way back in 2016 when he rushed for 14 TDs and gained 5.9 yards per carry and was key for a surprising 10-4 Owls’ team. He dented his draft stock in 2017 though when his yards per carry dipped all the way down to 3.9. 2018 is looking more like 2016 so far. After a slow start against Villanova (14 for 31 yards), Armstead has four straight 100+ yard games. He ripped off 171 and 4 TDs last week against Boston College. BC doesn’t have a great defense but Group of 5 backs need to feast in Power 5 games to get attention and Armstead did just that.
  • Andy Isabella, WR, UMass: Isabella crested 1,000 yards last season (1,020) but was overshadowed by TE Adam Breneman in the Minutemen offense. This season, as the primary target, Isabella is stealing the spotlight. He’s currently 6th in the NCAA in receptions (40) and 2nd in yards (647). Worth noting: UMass played in Week Zero so Isabella has an extra game compared to everybody else. Still, the numbers are encouraging. Isabella is a 5100/190 screen receiver who is a converted running back (he has 31 rushing attempts since 2016). He also returned kicks as a freshman. Isabella is likely to find a role in the NFL because of his versatility.

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown

  • Listed at 5100/168  per sports-reference.com
  • Film watched: Oklahoma State 2017, Iowa State 2018
  • 2017: 13 games, 57 receptions, 1,095 yards, 19.2 yards per reception, 7 TDs
  • 2018: 5 games, 24 receptions, 544 yards, 22.7 yards per reception, 5 TDs

Hollywood is leading the Big 12 in yards per reception and has been a dynamo all season long. He’s more than just a one-hit wonder though. He has four or more receptions and a touchdown in every game this year and has three 130+ yard games. This is his second season as a Sooner; he transferred from a junior college after a successful freshman season (50-754-10 plus two return touchdowns according to his media bio). There is no doubt about his playmaking ability but the foremost detraction of Brown is his size. He’s listed at just 5100/168 on in the 2018 media guide.  After another big game against Baylor (5-132-2), I decided it was time for me to watch some film of Brown instead of dismissing him because of his size.

Since my biggest concern about Hollywood is his size, I thought it would be important to study how he lines up.  He takes a few snaps from the slot and while in motion, so as to limit how easily the defensive back can jam him at the line, but the majority of snaps come when he lined up as an outside receiver.  My uneducated presumption was that he would solely be an inside receiver.  I don’t have tracking data to back up my estimate but I’d guess he lines up outside about 90% of the time.  Head coach Lincoln Riley cleverly deploys Brown when he lines up outside to avoid physical play along the sideline.  Sometimes he carries the route inside before breaking outside, as you’ll see in this clip from this year’s Iowa State game.  He’s the receiver at the bottom of the screen (#5), he drifts inside closely to his fellow receiver and disappears from the screen momentarily.  When he makes the catch he’s heading back towards the sideline with plenty of cushion from the defender.

Other times, as shown in this clip, Brown lines up in a “plus split”.  This alignment puts Brown on the outside to the field rather than the boundary (i.e. the side opposite the hash the ball is on), which gives him more space to maneuver.  On this play the Sooners are lined up on the left hash with Brown inside the numbers to the right.  He has plenty of space to the sideline and you can see his route stem is more diagonal than vertical.  The zone defense has nobody in the space that Brown bee-lines to and he picks up nine yards on a 2nd and 11.

This next clip is from 2017 when the Sooners played Oklahoma State.  This one ended up going for an 84 yard score.  It’s hard to say what was the key aspect of the play, was it Brown’s well-run slant route?  Or was it his breathtaking breakaway speed?  It’s hard to notice but look at the hesitation he gives the corner at the top of the route stem.  That pause, paired with Mayfield’s pump fake, freezes the corner long enough to let Brown catch it freely and jet towards the end zone.  On his way he avoids an ankle tackle while splitting three defenders and out runs everybody on the field.

It’s easy to find big play highlights of Brown so I went into my study looking for other positive indicators.  His route running, speed/agility and awareness are all encouraging.  My favorite play of his was this one from the 2017 Oklahoma State game that showed bits of each trait.  It’s a 1st and 10 from the opponent’s 20 yard line.  Brown lines up in the aforementioned plus-split and keeps his route alive while QB Baker Mayfield is scrambling.  Brown probably runs 40 yards on the route only to gain 9 but it was a good illustration of his awareness and determination to get open.

Even though I loved much of what I saw from Brown on tape, realistically, his NFL Draft stock is going to hinge predominantly on his combine measurements.  Dating back to 2010, there are only three guys who measured in his cohort and were drafted. You’ve never heard of two of them and the third is JJ Nelson. I think Brown will benefit from another year on campus so he can gain more reps on the field and in the weight room.  It is asking a lot but if Brown can bulk up to 185-190 he’d measure similarly to Brandin Cooks.  If he does come out in 2019, I anticipate his immediate upside being limited as a gadget and return guy.  However, if Brown does return and bulk up, I may be all-in next year.  I really enjoyed watching his film.

 


Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor.  My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character.  Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games.  When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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