The Watch List: 2019 Big 12 Season Preview
Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.
Storylines to Watch
Heisman Contender: Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma. An Oklahoma quarterback has won the last two Heisman trophies so this was a pretty easy prediction. Hurts is an efficient quarterback who makes few mistakes. I’m sure head coach Lincoln Riley will have Hurts playing in a more aggressive fashion this season which will help increase his counting stats. In order to get serious Heisman consideration, I think Hurts will need to be on pace for 3,500 total yards and 40 TDs and leading his team to the playoff.
Underclassman to Watch: Pooka Williams, RB, Kansas. Pooka starred as a freshman for the Jayhawks, earning All-Big 12 and Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors. In eleven games, he had over 1,400 yards from scrimmage (161 carries, 33 receptions) and 9 TDs; plus, he handled kick return duties. His ability to combine hesitation with elite acceleration and long-speed is impressive. I was also surprised to see how often he broke tackles or bowled over would-be tacklers despite his 5110/170 size. One thing to keep in mind is that Williams was suspended this offseason during a domestic violence investigation; afterwards, he was subsequently suspended for the season opener. If Williams can show personal growth off the field and add some girth on it, we’ll be talking about him near the top of the 2021 class.
Newcomer of the Year: Austin Kendall, QB, West Virginia. There will be a changing of the guard in Morgantown this year. Out goes QB Will Grier who led the Mountaineers attack the last two years; also leaving is head coach Dana Holgorsen who left for Houston. Austin Kendall, a grad transfer, leaves Oklahoma to join new West Virginia head coach Neal Brown. Brown recruited Kendall back when he was an assistant at Kentucky so presumably they already have a relationship. Brown says the quarterback competition is open but all three preview magazines I consulted predict he’ll win the job. Kendall ended up behind Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray at OU and escapes another season on the bench in Norman. In very limited action in 2016 and 2018, Kendall completed 71.8% of his passes and tossed three touchdowns to zero interceptions. He has two years of eligibility remaining so he’ll have two bites at the apple.
Coaching Carousel: Les “The Mad Hatter” Miles is back in our college football lives as he takes over at Kansas. Les has a reputation as being a zealous play caller who is unafraid to take chances. I think his personality can rub some people the wrong way, recently evidenced by some of the push back he’s receiving for the suspension of Pooka Williams. He said he “stands by” the suspension even though it wasn’t his decision. I won’t comment on the incident itself, but I have a feeling we’re going to end up with some troublesome sound bite from Miles regarding the situation before long. Miles has a career coaching record of 142-55 and finished 9-3 in his final full season at LSU. Kansas has only won nine games total in the last five seasons. It’s a good hire for the Jayhawks to jump start the program, but I don’t think Miles is the type who can be the long term answer — time will tell.
Players to Watch
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
CeeDee Lamb has been a devy favorite for over two years now since he joined the Sooners as a touted 4-star recruit, eschewing offers of home-state titans Texas and Texas A&M. I recall seeing Lamb play in his rookie season and thinking he looked a little light but he’s filled out his frame and is now listed at 6020/189. As a freshman, he recorded 46 receptions for 807 yards and 7 TDs. He improved in 2018 to 65-1,158-11, despite sharing the spotlight with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. In 2019, Lamb should be the unquestioned top target for new quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Before we delve into Lamb’s film, I wanted to share one intangible that came through as I watched. Lamb is an alpha male. He has an attitude and a swagger that I would love from my WR1 if I was a teammate or a fan. I don’t know if it should factor into his evaluation but I felt it was worth mentioning. This huge block in last year’s Red River Shootout is a example of what I mean. It’s hard to see in the replay but he looks down at the flattened defender as if to add further insult to injury.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
In the two games I watched, Texas and Alabama, Lamb continually made difficult plays along the sideline look routine. He has superb body control with the instincts to toe-tap just as he’s going out of bounds. The first play is a catch against Alabama where Lamb traps a back shoulder throw against his chest as he gets his feet in bounds (if I were to nitpick, I would say that Lamb does often body-catch the ball which can be, but hasn’t yet, been a concern). The second play against Texas Tech looks similar but he makes the catch using his hands this time.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
Lamb is a long strider who covers ground quickly when he wants to. He’s also good at selling route fakes by manipulating his speed or using subtle body feints. On this deep post he uses his speed and a head fake to gain enough space to make the play. As usual, he’s able to get his feet in bounds, this time in the back of the end zone.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
The two games I watched were lacking in the “oh my gosh did he just do that” department. (That’s probably a testament to how natural he looks making difficult plays.) I knew Lamb had a few incredible plays on his resume so I sought out some highlight reels so I could share a few. These next two plays came against UCLA early in the season. In the first play, Lamb one-hands the ball while streaking across the field. In the second play, Lamb nearly makes the play of the decade by plucking the ball with one hand at full extension, sadly his feet come down on the line.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
I currently have Lamb ranked as my WR2 behind Jerry Jeudy and ahead of Leviska Shenault. He is a well-balanced wide receiver prospect who lines up all over the formation and is bound to make a huge impact this season. Since Lamb has already been productive and shown a penchant for the unbelievable, I think he has a higher floor and a higher ceiling than most of the 2020 class.
Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State
When I first started my 2020 NFL Draft preparation back in May, I admittedly did not know much about Tylan Wallace. I had heard of his name and must have seen him during the Bedlam matchup against Oklahoma but I didn’t remember much. The receivers below in the Honorable Mentions section may have better name recognition right now than Wallace but I thought it was important to spotlight him here and give him his due.
As a freshman Wallace tallied just seven receptions, but he exploded as a sophomore. His 2018 line finished at 86-1,491-12, which was enough yardage to finish second in the FBS. Despite his dominance, Wallace didn’t earn much All-American recognition, perhaps confirming my thought that people are sleeping on him.
Wallace may not have the height of an elite outside receiver (6000) but he certainly has the catch radius. He has strong hands that allow him to snag the ball away from his body at a full extension. Combined with his strength, his leaping ability make him a frequent winner in contested situations. In this first clip, you’ll see him take an inside stem, then extend as he comes across the middle. He grabs the football in front of the defender before he can make a play on it.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
In this clip, you’ll see Wallace make another first down catch at full extension. The play is unlikely to end up on the evening highlight reels but it was an important play late in a close game and it readily shows how great his hands are.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
Wallace also has excellent speed and acceleration. I originally pegged him at 4.50 speed but he may be even quicker than that in confined space. He quickly gets out of his breaks and is able to return to top speed immediately. On this play against Kansas State, Wallace is running an out-and-up route but he slips while making his break. He quickly gathers himself and bursts upfield, edging out the corner and the incoming safety. Ultimately, Wallace wins the jump ball in double coverage for a big gain.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
Wallace isn’t all hands and speed though, I also noted numerous times where he succeeded as a blocker. I actually labeled him as a “feisty” blocker because it looks like he relishes the role. Here’s just one example of the “feisty” blocks I saw from Wallace in my study.
— Robert F. Cowper | RSO (@RobertFCowper) July 27, 2019
It will be difficult for Wallace to improve on last year’s output but he should come close. Hopefully he garners the national recognition he deserves because he’s a Top 10 receiver in the class.
Honorable Mentions
Kennedy Brooks, RB, Oklahoma: Brooks was the first of the two Oklahoma running backs I studied this Summer, which was before the recent news about a Title IX investigation. He’s been reinstated to the team but we don’t currently know the details. On the field, I noted that Brooks is an upright and downhill runner. He’s patient, follows his blocks and gets every yard that is available. I didn’t see too many examples in my film study, but I get the impression that he’s average or better in both pass protection and receiving. Brooks is just a redshirt sophomore so it’s unlikely he’ll do enough in a shared role to justify coming out early but he’s still somebody to monitor.
Trey Sermon, RB, Oklahoma: I was pleasantly surprised by Sermon’s film when I studied him earlier this offseason. Sermon runs with a slashing style and is ideal in a zone read offense. Because of his running style I assumed he was smaller than he is, but he’s listed at 6000/224. In fact, he invites contact and has a great stiff arm. Sermon shows a high football IQ, specifically when it comes to pass protection and blocking for his rushing QB. Forced to decide between he and Brooks, I would take Sermon. Luckily, head coach Lincoln Riley doesn’t have to choose and will run both of them alongside QB Jalen Hurts. I expect another 1,000+ scrimmage yard season with double digit touchdowns, which might be enough to have Sermon declare in January.
Collin Johnson, WR, Texas: I watched Johnson’s film against TCU and was impressed by a number of his traits. He has a long and lean body type (6060/220) which he uses to reach balls others couldn’t. He hand-fights the corner well and ran a variety of routes in the game I saw. I also noted that he has excellent situational awareness: he knows where the marker is, when to fight for extra yardage and when to protect the ball. Johnson was on my 2019 NFL Draft radar before deciding to return for his senior season; part of his decision to return to the Longhorns was that he did not receive a high grade from the NFL. A 1,000 yard season in 2019 will improve his chances to be a Day Two prospect.
Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU: Reagor is an electrifying track star playing wide receiver. He has elite athletic ability which allows him to transcend his presumed role as a receiver with a 5110/195 frame. Reagor easily outleaps DBs and is able to high point the ball. He’s nearly uncoverable 1-on-1 and safeties don’t have the speed to turn and chase when playing Cover 2. I’m hesitant to put Reagor in my top five wide receivers until I’m able to study some game film instead of highlights — as of my writing there were no full clips available yet. Reagor’s upside is immense so keep an eye on him.
Grant Calcaterra, TE, Oklahoma: Calcaterra is the prototype of the new “big-slot” tight end. He’s listed at 6040/221 and has 4.60 speed. Per ESPN’s recruiting service, Calcaterra was the fastest TE in his recruiting class, running a 4.64 in 2017. I haven’t watched him close enough to gauge his blocking ability but from what I’ve seen casually watching Sooners games the last two years he’s really just a receiver. To check that assumption, I fast forwarded through his tape from Texas last season and saw just a single play where he lined up on the line of scrimmage. At the end of that game, he made an incredible touchdown catch to seal the victory: contested, over the shoulder and one-handed. Catches like that are why we need to pay attention to Calcaterra this season.
Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels. Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
- Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
- Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
- NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
- Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
- Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
