Value Town: RBs
Most people like a deal. Receiving good value for that new phone, TV, car, or any other item allows us to put our hard earned resources into other things we value. Obtaining good values on players in Reality Sports Online (RSO) leagues is a must when putting together a winning team. The Value Town series examines the good and bad buys from the 2015 season in RSO leagues plus the overall state of positional groups in an attempt to get owners ready for the upcoming 2016 season.
This article examines the RB position group from 2015. You can find more information on methodology, assumptions, and definition of terms in the first article of the series here.
State of the Running Back Position
2015 will be remembered as the year of the injury for running backs. The top seven scorers on a points per game (PPG) basis all missed games at some point during the season, including fantasy stars Jamal Charles, Arian Foster, and LeVeon Bell. The group totaled forty-nine missed games averaging seven games per player. This high attrition rate among the best running backs had profound consequences throughout the fantasy world. Running backs contributed just twenty-three percent of the total replacement points in fantasy leagues, a decrease of more than thirty percent from 2014. On a per starter basis, running backs only eclipsed quarterbacks last season. The high injury rate meant that many RSO GMs who spent heavily on running backs in 2015 did not enjoy a great year.
The mass injury rate presented opportunities for many other running backs waiting for their chance. The Pittsburg running game never missed a beat following Bell’s knee injury as DeAngelo Williams, at 33 years old, played like a man a decade younger. Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West formed a potent combination helping Kansas City roll to the playoffs without Charles manning the lead back role. Many rookies including David Johnson, T.J. Yeldon, and Jeremy Langford flashed potential starting ability when given touches. Adrian Peterson returned to form in 2015 as one of the best backs in the league following his year-long suspension. DeVonta Freeman took control of the Atlanta backfield following rookie Tevin Coleman’s early season injury issues and never looked back ending 2015 as the top scoring running back.
Running Back Values
The Good
DeVonta Freeman – Average Salary: $2.6M, Approximate Value: $44M
Freeman exploded on the fantasy scene in 2016 ending as the RB1. His breakout campaign was highlighted by a four week stretch of thirty-plus point performances including nine touchdowns during that span. Freeman’s rushing faded down the stretch, averaging a miniscule 3 yards per carry in his last seven games. Expect more carries to go to Coleman next season but Freeman will still have value catching a lot of balls out of the backfield.
DeAngelo Williams – Average Salary: $1.9M, Approximate Value: $17M
Williams was picked up by many Bell owners given Bell’s early suspension. Williams rewarded his owners with over 20 fantasy points per game when Bell was not in the lineup which would be among the league leaders. Expect DeAngelo to be a popular handcuff again with his great 2015 play and Bell’s injury history.
Passing Down Backs
Cheap passing down backs, once again, provided a lot of value for those owners who chose to put most of their resources into other position groups. Dion Lewis (RB5 in PPG) and Danny Woodhead (finished as the RB3) vastly overproduced their low salaries while many others including Gio Bernard, Bilal Powell, and Charles Sims provided adequate cheap production. Bargains galore will be found again in this group for 2016.
The Bad
Eddie Lacy – Average Salary: $18.4M, Approximate Value: Replacement Level
Considered by many to be the safest running back for 2015, Lacy was outplayed by and eventually lost snaps to his teammate James Starks. The entire Green Bay offense regressed in 2015 and with it much of Lacy’s production. I would bet on a bounce back campaign next season from a trimmed down Lacy with an improved Green Bay offense.
Demarco Murray – Average Salary: $16.3M, Approximate Value: $8M
Just a disaster from the first snap, Murray never fit in Chip Kelly’s lateral running system. Philadelphia’s offensive line never seemed to be on the same page early in the season after losing two guards in free agency resulting in Murray being hit in the backfield on too many occasions. Murray’s move to Tennessee and the Titans drafting Derrick Henry in the second round of the NFL draft put a lot of uncertainty in Murray’s 2016 value.
Jeremy Hill – Average Salary: $15.6M, Approximate Value: Replacement Level
C.J. Anderson – Average Salary: $15.1M, Approximate Value: Replacement Level
Two of the most hyped young running backs coming off of terrific second halves in 2014 disappointed many RSO owners this past season. Anderson and Hill were both outplayed by their smaller teammates early in the season. Anderson was limited somewhat due to injuries and Hill was subject to a brutal defensive S.O.S against the run. Gio Bernard will continue to be a big part of the Cincinnati offense and Devontae Booker could provide competition to Anderson’s touches, but I would expect both to have more consistent years in 2016.
Looking Forward
Uncertainty and transition are the overriding themes for 2016. Many of the top fantasy stars from previous years, including Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, and Marshawn Lynch, are at or near the end of their careers. How many of the young up and coming backs like David Johnson, Thomas Rawls, and Matt Jones will take over dominant roles as their teams featured backs?
What has not changed? The NFL has seen a steady decline in rushing yards over the last few years and that is unlikely to change. Examining Tables 1 and 2, we see that the performance of top running backs did not change very much. Both fantasy PPG and yards per attempt were very similar in 2015 throughout the distribution of starting running backs. The lack of value in the running back position was clearly caused by the unsustainably high injury rate in 2015, not by a sudden loss in effectiveness. This may present RSO owners with the opportunity to buy high end running backs at value prices from owners scared off by all of the injuries to the top running backs.
| Year | RB1 | RB6 | RB12 | RB18 | RB24 |
| 2015 | 21.09 | 16.95 | 14.52 | 12.8 | 12.24 |
| 2014 | 23.16 | 17.04 | 14.45 | 12.95 | 11.3 |
Table 1. Fantasy PPG
| Year | RB1 | RB6 | RB12 | RB18 | RB24 |
| 2015 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| 2014 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
Table 2. Yards Per Attempt
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
