Post NFL Draft Winners and Losers
The NFL draft is finally over and the undrafted rookies are looking at each team’s depth chart to see where they have the best chance of making the final 53-man roster. Fantasy owners can also be analyzing each team’s depth charts to see where some of the biggest winners (or losers) can be found. Hopefully, you moved off of some key veterans before they bubble burst on their value.
Winners
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew – Jacksonville Jaguars
Rumors about the Jaguars taking one of the top 3 QBs at 9th if one was to fall to them was likely just a pipe dream to feed the fan base but there were serious questions about them maybe taking either Jordan Love at the start of the 2nd round or one of the other two QBs Jacob Eason or Jake Fromm in 3rd or 4th round. Love never made it there and the Jaguars passed on the other two, instead grabbing another sixth-round rookie, Jake Luton. There is a real chance that the Jaguars are drafting in the top 10 again next year and will take a quarterback in 2021 but for now, Minshew weathered the first storm and is QB1 on their depth chart.
Jarrett Stidham – New England Patriots
Similar to Minshew, the question seemed to not be if but when Jarrett Stidham would be supplanted by one of the rookie QBs. Like the Jags, however, New England passed on all of them and showed that they weren’t lying when they said they believed in Stidham as their starter. Much like with Minshew, it would be difficult to give more than a 2-year contract with the risk of another rookie coming in 2021 but these two (Stidham and Minshew) may be the two most underrated quarterbacks available in Superflex leagues next year.
Drew Lock – Denver Broncos
We knew that John Elway was high on Drew Lock’s potential and wasn’t going to give much in the way of competition for his job so his value as a starter next year was solid. Still, the Broncos went and drafted receivers in the first two rounds (Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler) and also grabbed combine speed freak Albert Okwuegbunam in the fourth round. Along with signing Melvin Gordon in free agency, John Elway has stocked the cupboard for Drew Lock moving forward. If the 2nd year QB doesn’t leap forward, both in the statistical and wins department it will be a huge letdown to the organization.
Running Back
Jordan Howard – Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were a top candidate to draft one of the first running backs of the board but instead focused on protecting their new franchise QB. Jordan Howard’s stock kept rising with each passing round that the Dolphins didn’t select a runner. Finally, on day 3 they acquired another RB albeit by trading their 5th round selection to the 49ers in exchange for Matt Brieda. Brieda has been a solid role player the last two seasons with San Francisco but he doesn’t pose as big of a threat to Howard’s value as any of the top rookies would have projected. Howard may become the new Frank Gore in RSO, gobbling up 1-year, $3M deals and being a surprisingly good depth player for savvy fantasy owners year after year.
Leonard Fournette – Jacksonville Jaguars
It is ironic that being good at your job as a running back actually can make you a liability instead of an asset in the NFL. The Jaguars selected Fournette 4th overall in 2017 and while he has been overshadowed by fellow classman Christian McCaffrey, Fournette has over 3,700 total yards in his first three seasons. The team likely expects him to demand a lucrative paid day soon and were rumored to be shopping him before the draft. This decreased his fantasy value as the idea of him being traded to a team in more of a timeshare role would be likely. However, no team bought on the opportunity and the Jaguars never addressed the position in the draft. Now heading into 2020 the Jaguars once again do not seem to have a real threat to Fournette’s touches and targets. He should see a nice rebound in value and will be an RB2 with weekly RB1 upside again this season.
Wide Receiver
DeVante Parker – Miami Dolphins
Similar to Jordan Howard, the risk of a first-round replacement was looming over DeVante Parker. Paker finally showed last year some of his talents as a former 1st round selection and earned himself a big payday because of it. Now with no rookie threat, Parker is the clear WR1 with only Allen Hurns and surprising talent Preston Williams coming back from his season-ending injury. We still have to wait and see whether Tua Tagovailoa starts game one or if Ryan Fitzpatrick will hold the reins till the rookie is fully acclimated but Parker should be the main target for either and will hopefully continue where he finished off last season.
Curtis Samuel & Robbie Anderson – Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers went all defense in Matt Rhule’s first season as head coach which bodes well for his starting receivers. D.J. Moore was already the alpha and his value was set regardless of if/where another receiver was brought in. For Curtis Samuel and Robbie Anderson however, any receiver drafted in the first 3 rounds probably would have crushed their fantasy prospects but it never happened. Expectations need to be tempered since new starting quarterback Teddy Bridgwater isn’t necessarily Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers in terms of elevating multiple fantasy-relevant receivers at the same time. However, for two players that had their value free falling the last two months, it could have been a whole lot worse.
N’Keal Harry – New England Patriots
Justin Jefferson was a sneaky interest rumored to be on the Patriots radar at pick 23 however, Minnesota snagged him one pick earlier so they reversed course and traded out of the first round entirely. Jefferson would have been a great compliment to Harry as a big slot receiver that could transition the team from the fan-favourite Julian Edelman. Regardless, with no competition being drafted and a second-year learning Josh McDaniel’s system if Harry can stay healthy he should see a solid rebound in his production. Grab last year’s WR1 while rookie fever is in full force.
Losers
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett – Indianapolis Colts
People will point to Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz as big losers due to their team’s drafting high at the quarterback position. Both Rodgers and Wentz though still have massive dead money in 2020 and in Wentz’s case also 2021. The fan-based would also revolt if either were to be jettisoned for unproven rookies. The biggest quarterback value hit is instead Jacoby Brissett. Brissett was replaced for one year by Philip Rivers but now may be in jeopardy of losing the job in the long run too by the Colts drafting Jacob Eason in the fourth round. Maybe if he is traded to a team like the Patriots his value will return but for now, his 2020 value is that of a backup in the NFL and a waiver add in fantasy until further notice.
Running Back
Kerryon Johnson – Detroit Lions
Both of Kerryon Johnson’s first two seasons had been shorted due to injury but in his time on the field, he showed the ability to be the primary carrier in the Lions’ backfield. Unfortunately, that was not enough to prevent Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia from drafting who draft experts had as their RB1 De’Andre Swift out of Georgia. Swift is an every-down back who should immediately step in as the RB1 for Detroit. The best-case scenario for Johnson now is to have a role similar to Giovanni Bernard in Cincinnati or to what Tevin Coleman was to the Falcons as a change of pace RB2 that can be called upon in case of injury.
Darrell Henderson – Los Angeles Rams
Those who drafted Henderson last year were expecting him to carve out a role opposite to Todd Gurley and one day take over the starting job. Well, he didn’t provide much in the way value last year but with Gurley getting cut it seemed like his time was finally about to come. Then the Rams drafted Cam Akers in the second round and the bubble burst. Maybe the Rams learned this time around that it is better to use two running backs in complement with one another rather than riding one into the ground. That is what Henderson owners have to be hoping for otherwise, fantasy owner’s hefty investment will likely be a large blunder.
Damien Williams – Kansas City Chiefs
We knew that running back was a point of interest for the Chiefs but like the Patriots’ QB situation we weren’t sure exactly whether they felt it was as big a priority as the fantasy community thought it was. They showed everyone how important it was when they selected Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the final pick in the first round. Fantasy owners were praying that a team like Tampa Bay or Kansas City would take CEH as his skillset fit perfectly with what both teams do on offense. CEH’s selection all but likely puts him top 2 in rookie drafts, meanwhile, Damien Williams’ owners will be left holding bag to see if he can provide a few retro fantasy weeks before he falls back to fantasy obscurity.
Aaron Jones & Jamaal Williams – Green Bay Packers
The Packers’ drafting was perplexing but at least the RB selection was expected by this writer. I had a conversation with a league mate discussing Aaron Jones and his value and suggested the team was unlikely to see him as valuable as he sees himself and would likely draft a running back this year to compliment him and then move off Jones in 2021. Drafting AJ Dillion in the second round has that kind of vibe and with Dillion’s skillset being that of a power back Jones’ touchdown upside should dramatically fall back from his stellar 17 TDs in 2019. Jamaal Williams had minimal fantasy value before Dillon’s selection but now he should be a redundancy and likely a waiver-wire option to all but the deepest of leagues.
Wide Receiver
Michael Gallup – Dallas Cowboys
The first big surprise of the first round was the fall of CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys selecting him with the 17th pick. Nobody should fault Jerry Jones for taking what was likely his best player available and keeping Lamb out of division rival Philadelphia’s hands. What it does do however is put a damper on what was maybe a rising sleeper in Michael Gallup. Gallup made great strides in his second season behind Amari Cooper and with the possibility of Cooper leaving via free agency his stock was slowly increasing. Cooper did eventually resign but this was seen as a good thing as Gallup was likely more valuable as a WR2 than a true WR1 in the Cowboy’s offense. Fast forward to today and it is hard to see Gallup being anything more than the fourth option behind Cooper, Lamb, and Ezekiel Elliot. He will still have his games but other than best ball formats it will be difficult to predict when his days will be.
Tyrell Williams – Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders were taking a receiver in the draft and likely it was going to be one in the first round. It was also probable that they took a second receiver later in the draft just due to the lack of depth at the position. However, taking three receivers in the first three rounds shows that Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden prioritized the position and felt that a total rebuild was in order. The only relevant carry over from the 2019 wide receiver room, Tyrell Williams will likely hang around the team for the 2020 season due to the uncertainty of training camps and the need for a veteran option. His surprisingly strong 2019 season, however, is likely to be the end of the road for his fantasy production.
DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles
After drafting Jalen Reagor out of TCU 21st overall it was believed that this should be the end for Alshon Jeffery and his time in Philadelphia. While I do think this will be Jeffery’s final season with the Eagles I think he can still be fantasy relevant in 2020. The receiver who is more immediately affected by drafting Reagor is DeSean Jackson. The 33-year old speed receiver has been banged up the past couple of years and played just one meaningful game last year. Reagor fits as his direct replacement with his blazing speed capabilities, therefore, making Jackson’s services redundant. The Eagles may hold onto Jackson through the 2020 season because of his dead money and cap space savings but it is unlikely his role is much more than for veteran leadership.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham – Chicago Bears
Rather than the quick death that Rob Gronkowski brought to his fantasy value by retiring last year, Jimmy Graham owners have been left holding the bag on a slow, painful decline to one of the best tight ends in fantasy over the last decade. His move to Chicago brought a sliver of hope that a guy like Nick Foles might be an upgrade at the position for the Bears and their offense could be at least moderate to fantasy value outside Allen Robinson. However, the Bears traded up in the second round to make their first selection of the 2020 draft tight end Cole Kmet. With the team prioritizing a rookie in their draft and having 8 other options on the depth chart it will be difficult to see Jimmy Graham being anything more than an extra tight end used for your primary tight end’s bye week.
