IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

Updated: December 6th 2023

This is it. This is our last push for the playoffs (hopefully you wonderful readers have already locked that up though!). But just in case you need a little help finding some decisions or considerations for your lineups this week, let’s dive into my thoughts for week 14.

Week 13 Recap

DL:

Start: Osa Odighizuwa (3 solos, 3 assists,Qb hit, TFL) 👍

Sit: Denico Autry (3 solos, 1assist, 1 sack, QB hit, FF, PD) 👎

LB:

Start: Jack Campbell (4 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Only on 79% snaps, efficient, talent, but not locked in

Sit: Markquese Bell (4 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jordan Battle (4 solos, 3 assists, TFL, 1 sack, QB hit, PD) 👍

Sit: Richie Grant (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 FF) 👎 – Big play made the day for him this week

Week 14 Starts & Sits

START: Samson Ebukam, Indianapolis Colts, DL38 (ED31)

7-5 for the Colts is a bit of a surprise with some of the injuries that they have had to overcome. What has been a contributing factor to these surprising results? The play of that defensive front is a big part of this. DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye for sure, but Samson Ebukam has been very good for this front. But especially good over his last 3 games. 4 sacks, but has a 16.45% pressure rate, which is 6 points higher than his 10.14% pressure rate for the entire season. Enter the Cincinnati Bengals with a 27% pressure rate allowed this season as well as a 15% sack conversion rate on those pressures. Pair that with the Bengals seemingly more willing to utilize their passing attack with backup Jake Browning under center, this should set up for a favorable matchup and a good volume of opportunities for Ebukam.

SIT: Chase Young, San Francisco 49ers, DL20 (ED18)

It seems like nothing can stop the San Francisco 49ers recently. While the offense looks great, the defense is doing its part, too. And the addition of Chase Young was a very solid move for this team. However, in his 4 games with the 49ers, it has been feast or famine. 2 sacks and 1 tackle are his 4 games total. His 14.19% pressure rate over the time would leave us to believe he is an ideal play against the Seahawks this week and their usually favorable matchup. However, last week they showed a changeup in their offense to mitigate a strong Cowboys pass rush. They went to a very quick passing attack with Geno Smith’s time to throw of 2.31 seconds, which was way down from his season average of 2.76 (which includes this most recent game). The offense was successful, they didn’t surrender a sack, and this doesn’t look great for the 49ers pass-rush. Especially Chase Young, who doesn’t seem to have a tackle floor either.

START: Mykal Walker, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB27

Mykal Walker has been a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers for three whole weeks now. And due to some unfortunate health in the linebacker room, Walker has seen his role continue to increase, as well. Elandon Robert’s most recent groin injury is just the latest news in this ongoing saga. With his increased time in Pittsburgh, we have seen his production rise each week as well (from 3 tackles to 5 to 11 this last week). While his overall numbers are average in terms of efficiency, he is getting a very favorable matchup for LB tackle production in the New England Patriots. Their offensive situation over the last 3 games has netted an average of 20 tackles to the LB position for the Patriots’ opponents. This should be an ideal game for Mykal Walker to deliver above-average efficiency and increased volume due to the injuries, which will lead to a very good week for Mykal.

SIT: Nicholas Morrow, Philadelphia Eagles, LB30

Nicholas Morrow has been involved in another linebacker room that has dealt with a litany of injuries this season. It has even seen Morrow go from a starter to a backup role, and back to the starter again. While no one will argue Morrow’s ability to be on the field, align a defense, and play his role, his IDP production has been one of mediocre value at times throughout his career. This season has shown to be similar with a 9.61% tackle efficiency, almost 4 points lower than the league average and closer to safety tackle efficiency. With a crucial week 14 matchup against their division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, there is little concern as the last 3 weeks, the Cowboys’ opponents have only seen 15.3 tackles for the LB position. The inefficient play, combined with the less-than-favorable matchup, means Morrow is a fade for me.

START: Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens, DB34 (S26)

Kyle Hamilton has seen his IDP production shift a bit this year, as well as his alignment and utilization. Primarily deep safety, slot role, box safety, deep, and back to slot defender. And this has been his primary role now for the last three weeks taking over 40 snaps a week there. While his tackle production has been average at just under 5 a game during this period (that’s with a 1 tackle performance), we have seen him generate 5 pressures, 4 hurries, and a QB hit. He also has 2 PD’s to boot. The Rams matchup this week is less favorable for safeties overall in terms of tackle production, but Hamilton is more of a slot defender or box safety, which aren’t like your traditional safeties. Hamilton has shown a respectable tackle floor but his big-play upside is a great reason for him to deliver this week against the Los Angeles Rams.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB36 (S28)

Jalen Pitre is less than 1 season removed from an outstanding 144-tackle performance. This season has seen him regress to the mean as he is on a 93-tackle pace over a 17-game span. His alignment this year is a bit down from last year as well with 43% of his snaps coming from the sweet spot. Even with his reduction in production, and shifted utilization, Pitre is still a relatively consistent IDP performer. What makes him less-than-ideal this week, is the matchup against the New York Jets. The Jets are providing league-low tackles to their opponents’ safeties at 9.6 per game, with the last 3 games averaging 6.0. That is an extremely small pie to divide up among others, let alone one’s self. Pitre is a pass for me in week 14

 

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Looking Forward: Expectations for the NFL Salary Cap

Updated: June 23rd 2022

Covid issues created unique salary cap problems for the NFL following the 2020 season.  The NFL salary cap unexpectedly dropped substantially after significant NFL revenue losses in 2020.  The article details a brief history of recent cap progression to the current state and what we can expect in the future.  The writing also examines how Reality Sports Online GMs may take advantage of the changing cap.

What happened?

Many teams played with near-empty stadiums primarily due to state Covid restrictions drastically reducing ticket and game day revenue while also seeing TV ratings dip in 2020.  This resulted in the NFL losing approximately $3 to $4 billion in revenue that season.  The NFL collective bargaining agreement (CBA) dictated those losses applied to the following year’s salary cap which would have resulted in the cap dropping by about $70 to $80 million in 2021.  NFL owners and the NFL Players Association, however, came to an agreement in which those losses would be spread out over a three year period instead of the single year.  In effect, the NFL would have three seasons of relatively modest below-market salary caps versus one year with a massive salary cap reduction.  This move mitigated potentially disastrous team salary cap problems throughout the league and kept players from seeing drastic salary reduction in 2021.

What does the Salary Cap look like going forward?

The NFL salary cap averaged about 7% annual growth in the seven years before the 2021 season.  The 2020 CBA increased player revenue shares to 48%+ in 2021 and going forward while an anticipated new TV deal was also expected to raise revenue significantly.   An 8.5% annual growth in the NFL salary cap for the near-term future was a reasonable projection prior to the 2020 season.  The new TV contract, sports betting deals, and potential international expansion may result in even bigger increases.

The chart below displays some of the effects on expectations to the salary cap due to the decreased revenues of 2021 and projections going forward using growth estimates stated above.  The NFL salary cap decreased from $198.2 million in 2020 to $182.5 million in 2021.  While this was only about a $16 million cap decrease, it also probably translated to approximately $30 or $35 million less cap space than NFL teams were planning for before 2020.  The 2022 cap is set to grow a hearty 14% from 2021 but the cap will still be far below what was expected previously.  2023 will show much the same.  These cap decreases have had real NFL consequences, particularly for those teams who were already up against the cap and essentially borrowing against future cap to pay for current player production.  New Orleans and Dallas, for example, were forced to trade individuals (Amari Cooper) for little compensation or allow players to hit free agency (Terron Armstead) they would have preferred to keep if not for cap restraints.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual and Projected NFL Salary Cap 2020-2025

Things get back to normal in 2024, in terms of the salary cap, as the 2020 revenue losses will have been fully accounted for after the 2023 season.  One consequence of this is that 2024 should see an enormous spike in the league salary cap with $40 to $50 million cap increases possible depending on further adjustments.  We have already seen teams calibrating for this reality by heavily back-loading contracts (more than normal) and increasing the usage of “dummy” contract years (items such as voided years at the end of the contract in which the player won’t actually play on the contract but serves as a way to extend cap accounting into the future).

The Los Angeles Rams provide a nice example of this.  Many question how the Rams keep paying big money extensions to players on the team.  They are simply using the rules of cap accounting and taking into account the expected explosion in future team cap.  Matthew Stafford’s contract contains cap hits of just $13.5 million and $20 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively, then balloons to about $50 million per year in future seasons.  Aaron Donald’s new contract added multiple voided years at the end of the deal to help spread his signing bonus over.

What this means for Reality Sports Online GMs

As most Reality Sports Online (RSO) GMs know, RSO mirrors the NFL salary cap in that the NFL salary cap equals the RSO salary cap.  This means we can also expect the RSO salary cap to also dramatically increase over the next few seasons.  The previous Salary Cap Chart from above shows expected cap growth rates of 11% (2023), 19% (2024), and 8.5% (2025 and forward).  Let us see how this compares to RSO contracts.  RSO multi-year deals distribute the total value of a contract based on the number of years resulting in small salary escalations (between 6% and 10%) in each subsequent year.  The four-year contract example from RSO is detailed below starting in 2022 with expected salary cap figures from our previous estimates.

Reality Sports Online Example Contract (4 year / $100 million total value)

“Expected Cap % “is the RSO salary divided by the expected cap. Most notably, compare the RSO contract salary growth rates with the expected cap growth rates above. The NFL Salary cap shows much higher expected growth than the contract salaries. The RSO example contract salary displays a 27% growth rate from year one to four while the salary cap is expected to rise by 43 percent during that period. This results in salaries taking a smaller portion of the expected total cap during the later contract years. In other words, the real expected yearly value of the RSO contract rises as the contract progresses.

The biggest takeaway for RSO GMs is that they should be more willing to invest in long-term contracts than ever before. Acquiring new multi-year deals in free agency and trading expiring contracts for existing long-term contracts should be a strategy focus for many teams. Hits on locked multi-year contract deals could become more valuable with time and misses make for more palatable release candidates with less cap consequences.


Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

2022 NFL Free Agency Look

Updated: March 22nd 2022

This free agency group once looked liked a great one, particularly at wide receiver.  Franchise tags to some of the top wide receivers and tight ends diminish the luster somewhat but there is still a lot of talent for NFL teams and potential fantasy rosters.  There is no shortage of starting-caliber receivers and running backs for teams but the available group of quarterbacks remains primarily relegated to the fringe starter class, as is usually the case.  Below the reader finds a synopsis of the most relevant free agent fantasy players.

Quarterback

Jameis Winston

The narrative is that 2021 was a great year for Winston largely due to significantly cutting down on his interceptions (3) in seven games before an ACL tear.  The data shows more of a middling year with the Saints limiting his volume (which still makes a very good free agent quarterback).  He was PFF’s 23rd ranked quarterback in passing grade while posting one of the worst completion percentages in the league.  He’s likely at the top of some team’s QB free agent list in this group though.

Mitchell Trubisky

It’s interesting that Trubisky is one of the most talked about free agent quarterback this offseason.  The former Chicago starter displayed abysmal down-to-down accuracy in his time with the Bears.  Was a year receiving Brian Daboll’s tutelage in Buffalo enough to correct his mechanical issues?

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Washington signed Fitzpatrick to be their short-term starting quarterback after some quality play in Tampa Bay.  Unfortunately a hip injury ended his season before it began.  He could be an emergency option for teams that miss out on the top trades or free agent candidates.

Tyrod Taylor

Taylor offers rushing ability with bottom-level NFL arm talent and started at quarterback for three NFL teams.    There’s a chance another team gives him a chance.

Teddy Bridgewater

Bridgewater ranks among the bottom-level starter / good backup tier and also started at quarterback for three NFL teams.    There’s a chance another team gives him a chance.

Others to watch: Marcus Mariota

Running Back

Melvin Gordon

Gordon produced another quality season with Denver.  He is a good rushing down back and capable of catching the ball but isn’t a route-winner, someone better as the lead back of a committee.  Gordon might look for one more substantial contract going into his 29 year old season or could return to Denver if the offers aren’t up to his standard.

Leonard Fournette

Fournette had probably his best year as a pro averaging 4.5 yards per carry and finished inside PFF’s top-32 running backs for the first time in his career.  He’s capable enough to play three downs but not good enough to stand out at any phase of the game.  Tampa Bay will reportedly let Fournette test the market.

James Conner

The Cardinals hit nicely with Conner on a cheap contract, playing particularly well in the passing game.  Health issues probably keep him from a huge touch role but he is another back capable of playing solidly on all downs.

Cordarrelle Patterson

The “come out of nowhere award” in fantasy football goes to Patterson who totaled over 1,100 yards (easily his top performance) in his ninth season.  His best chance of repeating the performance is staying in Atlanta.  Tread with caution in fantasy with the most role-uncertain back on the list.

Sony Michel

New England and the Rams primarily used Michel as a two-down committee back throughout his career, somewhat odd considering how good Michel was on screens in college.  His role probably caps out to more of the same at the next stop.

Rashaad Penny

Penny exploded to end the year with four out of five games of at least 135 rushing yards and ended up averaging 6.3 yards per carry for the season.  He’s the biggest wild-card in the group with numerous injuries so far to the former first-round pick but averages 5.6 yards per carry over his limited attempts during his career.

Raheem Mostert

His best scheme fit lies with the 49ers and he’s put up good yardage when available.  Will he actually be healthy?  How much of the workload would he take from Elijah Mitchell if he stays in San Francisco?

Chase Edmonds

A fantasy football favorite, Edmonds will likely never attain the role many want for him.  His role grew every year in Arizona however and was a useful fantasy option last season. He maintains value in the wide-open Cardinal offense if he stays.

J.D. McKissic

The bane of Antonio Gibson truthers, McKissic is one of the quality receiving down backs in the league.  He provided flex-level PPR production the last two seasons in Washington.

Others to watch: Marlon Mack, James White, Phillip Lindsay, Ronald Jones, Jerick McKinnon

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson

Robinson chose a poor year to have his worst season as a professional making him an interesting watch in free agency.  Many considered him “QB-proof” before and tallied at least 150 targets in every full season. Was last season a blip in a disinterested year with a rookie quarterback or the case of a non-burner receiver slowing down?

Will Fuller

The issue with Fuller is well documented.  He hasn’t played more than 11 games since his rookie season.  With that being said, Fuller’s a game-changer who forces teams to change the way they play defense and has multiple spurts of significant fantasy production.  He likely receives another one-year prove-it deal.

Juju Smith-Schuster

Many considered Juju the among the top dynasty wide receivers just a few short seasons ago after a monstrous sophomore season.  It’s been downhill from there with questions about the value of a “big-slot” option.  He’ll need to be paired with an outside route-winner to open up the field to maximize his traits.

Odell Beckham Jr.

The Rams got one of the better deals last season on their way to Super Bowl glory picking up Beckham Jr. on the cheap mid-year after Robert Woods went down.  OBJ showed off his explosive traits and extraordinary hands in a limited fashion acclimating to the Rams’ offense.  An unfortunate ACL-tear (his 2nd in recent years) in the Super Bowl means he probably won’t be ready to start next year and will likely diminish his contract.

Christian Kirk

The Arizona wide receiver does his best work from the slot but not in the quick shifty way, winning in the intermediate and deeper routes. He also has some scheme diversity in the usage history.  Kirk has two 100 target seasons under his belt and is just 25 years old.

D.J. Chark

Chark broke out his 2nd season but struggled when the offense tried to run more through him and he was forced to beat more physical coverage.  The thin-framed receiver shows explosive linear speed, plus athletic traits, and should have more success on a team as a complimentary intermediate and deep piece.

Michael Gallup

Dallas looks ready to sign Gallup to an extension after reportedly trading Amari Cooper.  He isn’t elite at anything and doesn’t possess great speed but is a good all-around receiver.  Gallup brings boundary-winning ability with solid ball skills and produced 1,100 yards in only 14 games his sophomore year.

Antonio Brown

Brown still displayed high-end receiver ability ending as the PPR WR9 in per game scoring last year.  The odds are long that someone signs him after self-destructing mid-year and with a host of behavior issue but there’s still a good player to be had if a team takes a chance.

Others to watch: Jamison Crowder, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Russell Gage, Zay Jones, T.Y. Hilton

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski

Does Gronk retire (again) with Brady bowing out?  There’s still plenty left in the tank if he returns.  The TE4 in per game fantasy scoring last season would upgrade most tight end rooms as a combo blocker and receiver.

Zach Ertz

Ertz fills the need for a reliable receiving option best suited to winning against underneath zone coverage and finished as the fantasy TE11 option.

Evan Engram

The Giants primarily used Engram as an underneath man-beater and he struggles with consistency at the catch point while offering little as a blocker.  Will a new team better utilize his deep speed and big play ability?

Gerald Everett

Everett specializes as an athletic undersized after-the-catch weapon with willingness to block, similar to a discount David Njoku who was franchise tagged by the Browns.   He’ll need a special scheme to fully utilize his talent.

Jared Cook

The elder one continues producing as a strictly receiving weapon but might finally be slowing down.  Does he get one more shot?

Others to watch: O.J. Howard, C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, Mo Allie-Cox, Hayden Hurst


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Week 12 Injury Impact

Updated: November 30th 2018

No one likes injuries but they happen and we must deal with them.  Week 12 saw a number of injury related and other news items relevant for many fantasy teams.  These injuries come at exactly the wrong team for many as the fantasy playoffs are about to start in most RSO leagues.  Let’s examine a few of the most fantasy relevant injuries, their probable replacements, and impacts on fellow teammates.

Injury News

Melvin Gordon

No injury has a bigger impact on fantasy teams than Gordon’s MCL sprain.  Gordon is irreplaceable as a top-5 fantasy running back.  He likely misses at least the next two games and could easily be done for the fantasy year including great matchups against Cincinnati and Kansas City to start the fantasy playoffs in weeks 14 and 15.

Who’s up next?  Austin Ekeler dominated snaps in week 7 with Gordon injured.   Expect more of the same for as long as Gordon is out with rookie Justin Jackson mixing in a little more this time around.  Jackson actually out-rushed Ekeler in week 12 after Gordon left but those touches were with the Chargers blowing out the helpless Cardinals while Ekeler caught a team-high 10 receptions.  Los Angeles might lean more on MVP-candidate Phillip Rivers while Gordon is out which could mean target increases for Chargers receivers including Keenan Allen.

Jack Doyle

Doyle suffered a season-ending kidney injury in Sunday’s game finishing an injury-plagued year.  Doyle was a top-10 PPR tight end with heavy volume when playing but struggled staying on the field in 2018.  The Indianapolis run game takes a hit as Doyle was also among the top blocking tight ends in the league.

Who’s up next?  The biggest beneficiary is fellow tight end Eric Ebron.  Ebron averaged 10 targets per game during Doyle’s previous five game absence.  Do not expect quite that kind of workload as Andrew Luck’s top wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, also missed some time during Doyle’s exit.  It does not matter.  Ebron already amassed 11 touchdowns in just 11 games playing limited snaps as a passing down player with Doyle for significant time.  He jumps to a top-tier, set-it-and-forget-it fantasy tight end to finish the year as Andrew Luck’s primary endzone threat.  Mo Alie-Cox, Ryan Hewitt, and Erik Swoope all missed last week’s game but one could become marginally fantasy relevant moving forward as the second tight end in this powerful offense.  Indianapolis faces one of the most fantasy friendly schedules for tight ends of any team going forward. Other receivers, including Hilton, could see increased volume as well.

Marvin Jones, Jr.

The hope of Jones returning ended when Detroit put Jones on injured reserve this week.  The rest of season looked relatively bright for Jones once Golden Tate was traded to Philadelphia with Jones and Kenny Golladay forming a dynamic twosome at wide receiver for the Lions.  That is now on hold until 2019.

Who’s up next?  The move solidifies Golladay at the top of the receiving pecking order in Detroit.  The biggest boost goes to Bruce Ellington who has seen 16 targets in the two games missed by Jones.  There should be enough volume for both to remain relevant the rest of season but things could look ugly at times.  Detroit faces an uninspiring fantasy playoff schedule for receivers including Minnesota and Buffalo.

Andy Dalton

The “Red-Rifle” is done for the season after a disappointing 2018.  Dalton was no more than a low-end starter in 2QB and superflex leagues so his missing of the rest of year after injuring his thumb will not have a big impact in most fantasy leagues.

Who’s up next?  It is unlikely the backup to Dalton will be fantasy relevant considering Dalton’s ineffectiveness in this offense.  Jeff Driskell replaces Dalton as the Bengals starting quarterback.  He displays some impressive athletic traits so you might see more running from the new quarterback but you can safely avoid him in most leagues.  The real impact will be felt on Bengals receivers where weekly volatility and uncertainty increases with a backup quarterback in.  Tyler Boyd and even A.J. Green, when he returns, become higher-risk weekly plays.

Jeff Heuerman

Heuerman was beginning to see his role expand in the Broncos offense after injuries decimated Denver’s tight end core this year.  He also joins the sinking ship after being ruled out for the season.  They will drag bodies from free agency to fill roster spots at this point.

Who’s up next?  This is another situation where you are likely only concerned in deeper leagues.  Matt LaCosse was the only tight end left for Denver after Heuerman’s loss and, while not an exciting option, he provides some intrigue.  Denver tight ends have seen no less than 7 targets over the last four games.  The Broncos also have what should be an easy finishing schedule with games against all sub-.500 teams to end the fantasy season.  The loss of Heuerman likely means more work for starting wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton to go along with a continued heavy reliance on the run game.

Other News

Rex Burkhead

New England recently activated Burkhead from injured reserve adding some chaos in the Patriots backfield.  We do not know what role Burkhead will play when he returns but he and now-Titan Dion Lewis formed a dynamic one-two punch when healthy last season.  The real loser, from a fantasy perspective, could be James White.  White has been outstanding this season as an RB1 in fantasy playing without Burkhead and rookie Sony Michel at times.  White was used primarily as just a passing down back last season with Burkhead and Lewis playing.  That would severely limit his fantasy potential if he moves to that role again to finish the season.

Blake Bortles

The Jaguars benched Bortles for the second, and possibly final, time last week setting the stage for a Cody Kessler end to the year at starting quarterback for Jacksonville.  He is not much of an option except for the deepest of fantasy leagues.  Kessler showed some decent play starting for Cleveland in 2016, however, and does not have a particularly tough schedule going forward.  The switch should not impact Jacksonville receivers negatively as the volume was so low with Bortles.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

RSO Writers’ League Rookie Draft

Updated: July 16th 2017

For our RSO readers, we wanted to give an open look into our Writer’s League Rookie Draft. Since we did our draft through an email chain we started by declaring our franchised players for the upcoming season. A list of who was tagged and for how much is listed below followed by the pick-by-pick selections and comments from each owner.

Stephen Wendell – Jimmy Graham ($10,331,667)

I tagged Jimmy Graham because I am obviously so confident in the draft pick I just made (Engram)

Luke Patrick – Travis Kelce ($10,331,667)

I tagged Travis Kelce because I assume any guy with a reality show is a good investment for football purposes.

Matt Goodwin – Melvin Gordon ($20,323,333)

I tagged Melvin Gordon because, well he dominated last year and has less competition this year. The $20.3m price tag seemed about right compared to what I thought he’d get on the open market.

Kyle English – Matt Ryan ($19,242,667)

I tagged Matt Ryan because he has Julio and should come out and torch everyone after last year’s super bowl embarrassment.

Nick Andrews – Drew Brees ($24,311,719)

I tagged Drew Brees for several reasons:

  1. a) Many of the other QBs were being tagged leaving Brees to be the target of the auction if I let him go
  2. b) Being in a win now mode allowed me to justify overpaying from the usually conservative salaries I give QBs and;
  3. c) There was enough interest in Brees through trade talks that if I am unsuccessful in my quest for a repeat championship he should bring back a couple of decent assets during this season.

Matt Papson – Eli Manning ($19,242,667)

I decided to tag Eli for $19.2MM despite the hefty price tag and my significant dollar commitments to other quarterbacks for a couple of reasons. One, it’s a superflex league where quarterbacks are the highest scoring position and where I feel the ownership (in general) is severely undervaluing quarterbacks. Two, I believe Eli is poised to have perhaps the finest statistical year of his career, but I’m not confident about his long-term prospects. Finally, even though I’ve got a bunch of money tied up in Andrew Luck & Carson Palmer, I’m not 100% confident Palmer will return to form, even though I still feel good about the odds.

Jaron Foster – Jameis Winston ($19,242,667)

Given the superflex format and lack of quality quarterbacks that will be available in the auction, the franchise tag price seemed reasonable to keep a young QB who is ready to take the next step with some new toys to play with.

Bob Cowper – None

I tagged nobody because, well, my team just wasn’t very good.

Dave Sanders – None

Bernard Faller – None

2017 RSO Writer’s League Draft Results

Below is a transcription of each pick and comments that the owner made during their selection. Included also are the trades that occurred during the draft.

Corey Davis

1.01 – Corey Davis

Luke Patrick: I opted for Corey Davis, but it was a hard call for me with Fournette and McCaffrey beckoning at a position of need.   With a bloated A-Rob (Allen Robinson) contract and an invaluable 4-year control on a potential stud WR proved too much for me to resist, I opted for the potential HR.

1.02 – Leonard Fournette

Bob Cowper: Even though Jacksonville isn’t great, I think he will be dominant enough to be a valuable fantasy player from the start (albeit less so than Zeke).  I think Fournette’s pass catching ability is underrated so as long as he can be an average pass blocker he has a shot at staying on the field for 3 downs.

1.03 – Christian McCaffrey

Jaron Foster: Between draft stock and lack of competition, this is a fairly easy choice for me. He should have a high PPR floor even if he doesn’t turn into a 3-down back and a high ceiling if he does.

1.04 – Joe Mixon

Matt Papson: I entered the Rookie draft with selections 4 and 6. My plan, which was feasible until a few weeks before the draft, was to land two of the four elite running backs — Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, and Cook. When the draft fell Davis, Fournette, McCaffrey, I was faced with a difficult decision. I preferred Mixon to Cook, though not by much, and I thought there was a chance if I took Cook, perhaps Mixon would still be around at 6. I was not confident the opposite would be true.

1.05 – Dalvin Cook

Nick Andrews: I traded up before the draft started sending the 1.10 and a 2018 1st knowing that I wanted to get one of the top 5 rookies. Once all the other players were selected through the first four this was an easy choice to make. Cook was considered the 1.01 up until the combine and depending on your expectations from Latavius Murray this could be his backfield from week 1. He has the skills to be a 3-down back and should help to take some pressure off of Sam Bradford.

1.06 – Mike Williams

Papson: As it turned out it didn’t matter. I took Mixon, Cook went 5th, and I was essentially forced to take Mike Williams by default. Williams is the #1 WR on my board but was not planning to take unless I had to because of existing depth at the position. Best available reigns supreme.

1.07 – O.J. Howard

Bob: Struggled with this one a bit.  I haven’t been shy about my Howard concerns – he’s obviously an athletic freak but he was so underutilized at Alabama and so much of his production came in two games against Clemson.  To those who argue that the Alabama offense just doesn’t use the TE, I would counter by saying that it hasn’t relied on a run-first QB like Jalen Hurts either but Saban found a freak athlete he just had to work into the game plan.  Why not with Howard?  He might have the lowest floor of some of the others in contention at 1.07 but it’s hard to say no to somebody of his size and speed.  Having Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson under contract also factored in, figured I should fill the TE spot rather than taking John Ross or reaching for one of the second-tier RBs.

1.08 – Kareem Hunt

Matt Goodwin: As someone who owned Spencer Ware last season in this league, I’m picking Kareem Hunt because I think he’s very talented and in a situation where he can win the Chiefs starting running back job this season and if he does, that’s fantasy gold. I’m intrigued by the fact that Pro Football Focus ranked him third in its elusiveness rating. Also, the Chiefs traded up to get him, which speaks volumes about what they think of him. Hunt caught six balls in multiple games this season and has a nose for the end zone and big plays. I’m happy to pick what some are calling the “steal of the NFL draft” and who Louis Riddick had effusive praise for, comparing him to Emmitt Smith. As someone who graduated from Miami University, I’d be remiss if I didn’t take the opportunity to pick a future star from the MAC.

1.09 – Alvin Kamara

Jaron: I took Kamara to back up the newly acquired Mark Ingram. It would have been difficult to choose between Hunt and Kamara, given Hunt’s ideal landing spot, so I’m glad the decision was made for me. I expect Kamara will sit behind Ingram and AP for a year, and then will take over when one or both leave the bayou.

1.10 – John Ross

Kyle English: Don’t really need a WR, but that’s far and away where the best value is at this point.  Still struggled quite a bit with this one, but ultimately decided on Ross.  Quite worried about competition for targets there in Cincy and his injury history, but at the 1.10 I can’t let him fall any further.

*TRADE ALERT*

Bob Trades: Jordy Nelson

Luke Trades: 2.08, 2.06, Giovanni Bernard, Tyler Lockett

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: 1.06 (Mike Williams)

Luke Trades: 2.01, 2.09, 2018 2nd, Jerrick McKinnon

 

2.01 – Juju Smith-Schuster

Papson: Flush with 3 2018 1st round picks, and with 7, 8, and 9 (Howard, Hunt, Kamara) falling fairly favorably, I briefly negotiated for the 1.10 before making a deal for 2.01 and 2.09 in exchange for Mike Williams. My intention here was to end up with two of the following three: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Patrick Mahomes, and DeShaun Watson. I took Juju at 2.01, though I pondered both Mahomes and Watson in that slot. Depending on who you ask, JuJu could be ranked as high as 7th and low as 27th, but I wasn’t willing to wait any longer.

2.02 – Chris Godwin

Bob: He was my best player available (#8 on my board) and even though I already took Howard (and have Martin) I’m going for it.  As a Michigan and Rutgers fan, it kills me but I loved watching him play this year. Godwin makes spectacular high point catches and should see lesser coverage with all the other weapons. I really wanted Davis at 1.02 but figured Godwin would be my backup at 2.02.

2.03 – Evan Engram

Bernard Faller: My top fantasy TE in the class but is really just a pass catcher.  Unlike most TEs, his maturity as a receiver makes him ready to play from day one.  The ridiculous combination of size, speed, and athleticism is virtually unmatched by any receiver in this class.

2.04 – David Njoku

Stephen Wendell: Miami must not have had a lot of favorable lines this year because I spent no time watching any Miami football, but I tend to only watch college football where I have some action, but that tends to be most games, so I am not sure how I missed him. That said, even if I had watched him, my opinion of rookies means nothing and Bob Cowper’s means everything to me… the guy is an animal, a Matt Waldman in the making. And he has Njoku ranked 12…his BPA is Zay Jones who I like as well, but not a perfect situation for him in Buffalo and he kind of feels like a guy that may be pretty great (if he becomes great) at the end of his rookie deal when he is likely a FA already in our league. Additionally, someone has to catch some passes for the Browns this year, whether it is Osweiler or Kizer (or Jimmy G??) throwing them, so why not a stud TE to grab a few and pick up a few red zone scores (he grabbed 8 last year). Lastly, a severe position of need for me, especially if Fleener does not play better in NO this season.

*TRADE ALERT*

Luke Trades: Josh Gordon, 2019 1st

Kyle Trades: Blake Bortles, Laquon Treadwell

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: 2018 1st

Kyle Trades: 2.05

2.05 – Patrick Mahomes

Papson: As the round progressed, I got a little anxious about the fact that Mahomes and Watson might both be gone by 2.09, and I then decided I wanted to find a way to get both. I tried desperately to acquire 2.06 and 2.08 from Rookie Draft aficionado Bob Cowper but quickly realized that would be futile. I instead moved up to 2.05, where I selected Mahomes because in Andy I trust.

2.06 – Mitchell Trubisky

Bob: I wanted Mahomes and should have pulled the trigger to move to 2.05.  Guess I did the reverse-Bears.  I think the QBs are being undervalued for our superflex league so I still wanted to go for one and took Trubisky.  I hope he doesn’t start in the NFL this season because he’s not ready (neither is Mahomes but I think his ceiling is higher). I went for a similar guy last year in Jared Goff and while that may not work out, hoarding young QBs on cheap contracts can only end up hitting sooner or later.

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: 2.09, Jerrick McKinnon

Goody Trades: 2.07, Sterling Shepard

2.07 – DeShaun Watson

Papson: I made some nifty moves to swap 2.09 & 2.07 so that I could also grab Watson and complete my triumvirate.

2.08 – Zay Jones

Bob: It wasn’t who I was targeting here since I figured he’d be gone. The Bills don’t trust Sammy Watkins so at worst he’s a year away from being the number one and in the meantime should have PPR value.

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: Kelvin Benjamin

Stephen Trades: 2018 2nd

*TRADE ALERT*

Goody Trades: Jerrick McKinnon

Kyle Trades: Josh Gordon

2.09 – DeShone Kizer

Goody: In short-SuperKizeme! For my squad heading into the rookie draft, my hope was to dump some salary and keep my picks intact as best as possible. After giving away Mark Ingram ($18m this year) before the draft, I thought that effort was done until Matt Papson offered to take one year of Sterling Shepard for $9.9m off my books to swap 2.07 for his 2.09, and I couldn’t pass up the chance to enter our auction with the most cap space in the league. I would have taken DeShaun Watson at 2.07, but am happy I get to take a super-cheap flyer on DeShone Kizer. As a Cleveland Browns fan, I liked the pick and think there is some time for Kizer to grow. The physical tools are there and in this superflex league if Kizer becomes a star that will be incredibly valuable to me. So in the end, guys like Samaje Perine and Cooper Kupp move to the background and Kizer has me dreaming of a QB from my youth with a similar sounding name-Kosar (as in Bernie). #Believeland

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: Sterling Shepard, Michael Floyd, 2018 1st

Bernard Trades: 2.10

2.10 – Curtis Samuel

Papson: I ditched some players’ salaries and a final 2018 1st to get to 2.10 to select Mr. Irrelevant, Curtis Samuel.

*TRADE ALERT*

Luke Trades: Mike Williams, 2018 1st

Bernard Trades: Tyrod Taylor, 2018 1st

2017 Writer’s League Rookie Draft Results

1.01 – Corey Davis – Luke 2.01 – Juju Smith-Schuster – Papson (thru Luke)
1.02 – Leonard Fournette – Bob 2.02 – Chris Godwin – Bob
1.03 – Christian McCaffrey – Jaron 2.03 – Evan Engram – Bernard
1.04 – Joe Mixon – Papson 2.04 – David Njoku – Stephen
1.05 – Dalvin Cook – Nick 2.05 – Patrick Mahomes – Papson (thru Kyle)
1.06 – Mike Williams – Bernard (thru Luke, thru Papson) 2.06 – Mitchell Trubisky – Bob (thru Luke)
1.07 – O.J. Howard – Bob 2.07 – DeShaun Watson – Papson (thru Goody)
1.08 – Kareem Hunt – Goody 2.08 – Zay Jones – Bob (thru Luke)
1.09 – Alvin Kamara – Jaron 2.09 – DeShone Kizer – Goody (thru Papson thru Luke)
1.10 – John Ross – Kyle 2.10 – Curtis Samuel – Papson (thru Bernard)
More Analysis by Nick Andrews

FA Expectancy: Latavius Murray

Updated: July 23rd 2017

Throughout the offseason, I will be preparing a collection of articles that will focus on free agents and trade candidates. The articles will discuss the player in question, and what the move does to their value, as well as what their landing spot means for their new and old teams.

Latavius Murray – RB, Minnesota Vikings

It is hard to find anyone that the fantasy community is more down on than Latavius Murray in 2017. After letting Adrian Peterson walk the Vikings signed Murray to a 3 year/ $15million deal to theoretically lead their backfield on the first two downs. Many question what Murray can really offer his new team as he was never able to carry the full workload in Oakland in 2016. His move from a top 5 rated Raiders offensive line to a bottom 5 rated Vikings doesn’t really help his cause either. But he is technically the lead back (as of writing this article before the NFL Draft) so he should get a fair share of the touches. Is he a sneaky buy-low candidate?

Tyler Buecher of NumberFire looked at how penalties, specifically pass interference calls, can affect the season end results for fantasy numbers and whether some players were negatively and positively affected because of them. His results can be found here. For running backs, these were the players that received the most benefits from the calls.

Player

1st-and-Goal Penalty TDs

Total TDs

Fantasy Finish

LeGarrette Blount

5

18

RB9

Latavius Murray

4

12

RB13

Lamar Miller

3

6

RB20

Melvin Gordon

3

12

RB7

Devonta Freeman

2

13

RB6

Doug Martin

2

3

RB54

Ezekiel Elliott

2

16

RB2

Matt Asiata

2

6

RB37

 

Murray benefited the second most from pass interferences calls with four of his twelve rushing touchdowns coming from an interference call leading to 1st and goal from the 1-yard line. Since we know that touchdowns fluctuate season-to-season it wouldn’t be surprising to see a decline in his totals, especially with a team that will have less frequent trips inside the red zone. Ironically, Matt Asiata is also on this list which suggests that the Vikings are indeed a candidate for goal line touchdowns to regress next season.

So what does this mean for Vikings players?

The short answer is not much. Murray may or may not be the bruiser back heading into 2017 with Jerrick McKinnon continuing his role as the change-of-pace and satellite receiving back. I expect the Vikings to take a running back in the draft to try and groom into their featured runner once they move on from Murray. If there are any Bishop Sankey truthers still left out there this might be his last opportunity to be a usable NFL running back in case Murray falters or more likely gets injured. In really deep leagues Sankey could be a dart throw that pays off for a couple of games if he shows that he can ward off any potential incoming rookies should Murray be absent from the lineup.

I guess you could call this an upgrade for Sam Bradford who had zero options for handing the ball off last season. It’s unlikely that any coordinator will fear the run game though so the Vikings should expect aggressive blitzes and plenty of nickel and dime packages to cover the receivers and tight end. Murray’s presence could have a negative impact on the receivers scoring opportunities inside the 10 yard line as there were nine passing touchdowns that came within 10 yards of the end zone in 2016 (4 to Kyle Rudolph, and 1 each to McKinnon, Stefon Diggs, Jarius Wright, Cordarrelle Patterson and Adam Thielen).

So what is Murray’s Value?

As previously stated the Murray stock is at an all-time low so if you were ever going to get in cheap now is the time. He’s been moved around in my home league four times already this offseason and I have had several other offers in other leagues with him as a throw in. As Bernard Faller pointed out in his article, “Read the Fine Print” while Murray’s contract may be for 3 years it really works out to be a 1 year deal with additional team option years added on. He essential could be cut at the start of next season and save the Vikings $5.1million in cap space. This is why I expect the team to invest and develop a running back from this loaded class to then hand him the keys in 2018.

If Murray is available in your auction you should be able to get him dirt cheap as a 1-year rental player that could be used for decent matchups. Otherwise, unless Murray is on a steal of contract I wouldn’t value him for more than a third round pick. There are too many lottery ticket running backs that could increase their value by 2018 in the second or third round to settle for a low floor RB2/3 like Murray.

So what does this mean for the Raiders?

The Raiders have been linked to bringing the corpse of Marshawn Lynch back for weeks now and while playing behind that offensive line would give him some value I just don’t see it being worth it for real or fantasy purposes. Bringing in fresh legs from the draft would be the best option for the team and any player they select will see his rankings shoot up the rookie ADP rankings. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard were nice waiver wire additions last year and they still hold value right now especially if a back isn’t selected by the end of day 2. However, Washington wasn’t a high selection either (5th Round) and Richard was an UDFA so the Raiders do not owe them anything for playing time. They are both savvy players to watch for in your auctions but don’t get carried away in a bidding war for mediocrity.


Make sure to continue to read more Free Agency Expectancy articles throughout the offseason to be prepared for your summer Auctions. Have a player that you want me to evaluate? Look for my polls to cast your vote or send me a message on Twitter @naandrews19.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews