Week 4 Street FA Report

Updated: October 1st 2020

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Brian Hill, RB – ATL (Owned 31%)

Week 3: 9 Car/58 yards, 1 TD, 1 Rec/22 yards

Pro-active fantasy handcuffing philosophy suggests to only roster running backs who are the immediate backups to a team’s primary ball carrier. By this definition, Brian Hill has to be owned in more than 1/3rd of leagues with how this season has been in terms of injuries. Todd Gurley has seen an average of 54 percent of the Falcons offensive snaps through the first three (3) weeks but only had five (5) more touches than Hill in week 3. Gurley is also ranked 4th on Rotounderworld’s Injury Probability Index which means there is always a strong possibility that Gurley misses time either for rest or injury. Hill would immediately step into a role similar to Mike Davis of Carolina last week where everyone would be looking to add a potential starter from free agency. You can get ahead of the curve now and add him for much cheaper than what he could cost down the road.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

 RB Add

Rex Burkhead, RB – NE (Owned 28%)

Week 3: 6 Car/49 yards, 2 TDs, 7 Rec/49 yards, 1 TD

I did not want to include Rex Burkhead this week as it would not be a shock if he never saw more than five (5) points in a game from this point on. In the two-week absence of James White however, he has been the “primary” running back for New England and also put up a monster stat line against the Raiders last week. The Patriots have always used Sony Michel as their traditional runner and White as the pass-catcher but it often leads to obvious play calling for the defense to react to. With Burkhead, the ability to run or pass gives a quarterback like Cam Newton who thrives off play-action passes more opportunities to make plays. Burkhead will not have another 30+ point game but his value may be more than most think with this new Patriots offense. Of the three running backs, he might be the most valuable at this point.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

 WR Adds

Cole Beasley, WR – BUF (Owned 45%)

Week 3: 6 Rec/100 yards

Surprisingly, Cole Beasley is not owned in half the leagues as of week 4. He has averaged 12.5 PPR points and is currently the WR29 overall. He also ranks T-25th in targets, T-16th in receptions, and T-18th in yards. This just begs the question if he is not being started in leagues why has he not been rostered at least? One thought is because he has yet to find the endzone and therefore is out of sight for those who are only scoreboard watching. The other is that most people have not come around to Buffalo being considered a multi-receiver fantasy team yet. If people are starting to be all-in on Josh Allen and his development as a viable passing quarterback then it should stand to reason that Beasley (and other options outside of Stefon Diggs) should be fantasy viable too. Add him this week and be happy if you ever need him in a spot start.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

 

Randall Cobb, WR – HOU (Owned 43%)

Week 3: 4 Rec/95 yards, 1 TD

Randall Cobb was invisible on opening night against the Chiefs but in the last two games he has put up similar production to the previously mentioned Cole Beasley. He is still clearly the 2B receiver along with Brandin Cooks behind Will Fuller but the Texans have played the sixth most 3WR sets this season (72%) and the targets have been spread around fairly evenly. Will Fuller is the only Texans receiver with a double-digit target game thus far back in week 1. The schedule has also been brutal to the Texans to start the season which may have something to do with their offense looking below-average thus far. As the schedule eases up there may be more opportunities for Cobb to be used as a fantasy option in deeper leagues.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

 TE Add

Jimmy Graham, TE – CHI (Owned 38%)

Week 3: 6 Rec/60 yards, 2 TDs

The switch has finally happened at quarterback for Chicago with Nick Foles taking over in the fourth quarter and stealing another game for the Bears. Having to come back from a large deficit was likely a big reason the offense was so pass-heavy with Foles in the game but it looked more efficient than when Mitch Trubisky was under center. Two benefactors of this efficiency were Allen Robinson and Jimmy Graham. Graham specifically was able to take advantage by having his first two (2) touchdown game since week 10 of 2017. His usage was always there as he was on the field more than any receiver other than Allen Robinson and has been the second most targeted receiver in two of the Bears’ first three games. He currently sits as the TE7 in PPR and would be a solid addition for teams that are working through Dallas Goedert or George Kittle injuries.

 Sleeper Add (<25%)

Travis Homer, RB – SEA (Owned 10%)

Week 3: 2 Car/19 yards

The absence of Chris Carson should only be for a week or two so the suggestion of Travis Homer is a rather short-term one. However, Homer split his usage with Carlos Hyde behind and in replace of Carson in week 3 so Hyde may not be as much of a bell-cow as others are suggesting. Their roles in this offense are also more defined in that Hyde acts primarily as an early-down carrier while Homer is the third down and passing situation option. With Carlos Hyde’s ownership being over 2/3rd in RSO leagues and how much the Seahawks are letting Russell Wilson pass the ball making for more opportunities to catch the ball out of the backfield, Homer would be the ideal sleeper add for owners rotating their starting running backs or flex position.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 3 Street FA Report

Updated: September 21st 2019

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Cole Beasley, WR – BUF (Owned 38.5%)

Week 2: 4 Rec/83 yards

Cole Beasley has been a fantasy sleeper the last two weeks with 9 and 12 points respectively. He won’t win you many weeks but he has a higher floor than most receivers with <50% ownership. Beasley is a player that you can add to your roster now and use in a pinch for bad matchups for your regular rotation of players and during bye weeks. For leagues that feature a high number of WR starting requirements, it is often more beneficial to avoid putting up a doughnut then trying to hit the sleeper home run when you need a player to step in for only a week or two, especially if the rest of your lineup is full of blue-chip players. Be proactive and grab Beasley now before the rest of your league starts putting together their midseason backup plans.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

RB Add

Ty Johnson, RB – DET (Owned 24%)

Week 2: 5 Car/30 yards, 2 Rec/6 yards

The surprising release of veteran C.J. Anderson means that 6th round rookie Ty Johnson moves up to #2 on the depth chart for the Detroit Lions. Johnson received a modest workload in week 2 but with the injury history of Kerryon Johnson, he is a speculative stash at this point for later in the season. If anything was to happen to Kerryon there wouldn’t be much in the way of backfield competition for Ty Johnson. If you have the bench space it would be better to pay the minimum now rather than have to try and outbid other owners later.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Adds

David Moore, WR – SEA (Owned 34.5%)

Week 2: N/A

David Moore is ready to make his 2019 season debut after missing the first two games with injuries and it will be interesting to see how he fits within Seattle’s offense. He should be the second outside receiver opposite D.K. Metcalf. His upside is limited to being the third option (behind Metcalf and Tyler Lockett) in a run-first offense but that also means there will be minimal coverage to his side of the field when Russell Wilson does look his way. He should have his games of big plays or forgotten coverages this season so he is an ideal stash in deeper leagues in case of injuries to either receiver above him.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Devin Smith, WR – DAL (Owned 24%)

Week 2: 3 Rec/74 yards, 1 TD

Devin Smith rose from the dead for 16 PPR points last week after not seeing game action since 2016 with the Jets. He took over for an injured Michael Gallup who is on track to miss 2-4 weeks which means that more opportunities are at his feet. Dallas’ offense is strong enough that even as a third or fourth option Smith is still likely to have fantasy relevance until Gallup is fully healthy. If you are in a pinch as a Gallup owner for a temporary starter you likely will find Smith free on the wire.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Will Dissly, TE – SEA (Owned 48%)

Week 2: 5 Rec/50 yards, 2 TDs

Even after the initial waiver period cleared Will Dissly is still unowned in over half of leagues. Maybe it is because people are worried his two-touchdown performance of last week is unlikely to be duplicated but having any touchdown upside is reason enough to be adding Dissly. The Seahawks are a running team which means that Dissly will get his opportunities to be on the field, thus available for play-action receptions. Similar to David Moore, Dissly is unlikely to garner a lot of coverage from opposing defenses so why not take a shot. At the tight end position you are basically hoping for a touchdown or bust scenario anyway. Add him to your bench and start him when the Seahawks are playing weaker defenses.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<10%)

Damiere Byrd, WR – ARZ (8%)

Week 2: 6 Rec/45 yards

The Arizona Air Raid has been about as interesting as people expected it would be through the first two weeks of the season. The team is lapping the league in number of no-huddle plays and is featuring 4WR sets more than any other team. This is likely contributing to Damiere Byrd being a deep sleeper over the first two weeks with 10 receptions on 14 targets. He is still third on the team in targets behind Larry Fitzgerald (24) and Christian Kirk (20) but it is clear that Kliff Kingsbury is willing to air it out regardless of game script. We should expect similar numbers to continue for Byrd. If an injury to either Fitzgerald or Kirk were to happen Byrd would become an instant waiver wire must add so save your cap space now and pick him up.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 7 Street FA Report

Updated: October 18th 2018

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available.

Byes: Green Bay, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Seattle

Add of the Week

Terrelle Pryor, WR – NYJ (Owned 47.6%)

Week 6: 5 Rec/57 yards, 1 TD

Terrelle Pryor scored a touchdown for a second consecutive week and had his most targets (6) since week 2 against the Dolphins. More importantly, it appears Quincy Enunwa will be missing several weeks with an ankle injury. This gives Pryor the opportunity to step into the #2 role opposite Robby Anderson. The Jets’ offense has been a surprisingly useful bunch for fantasy players and if they can keep up their scoring efficiency, Pryor may become a strong mid-season add for what will be a heavy receiver bye week coming up.

Suggested Bid: $3,000,000 – $5,000,000

RB Add

Ito Smith, RB – ATL (Owned 46.5%)

Week 6: 11 Car/22 yards, 1 TD, 2 Rec/-1 yards

With Devonta Freeman going on IR it is time to fully embrace Ito Smith as more of a stable fantasy option for the second half of the season. Smith has a touchdown each of the last three weeks and will likely continue to get goal line work. Tevin Coleman is still the more appealing option in Atlanta’s backfield but now that Falcons are committing to putting Freeman on the shelf they may be more inclined to get Ito Smith involved in their weekly game plan. For someone who is free in nearly half of all leagues, Smith is an easy addition to any team.

Suggested Bid: $3,000,000 – $6,000,000

WR Add

Cole Beasley, WR – DAL (Owned 31%)

Week 6: 9 Rec/101 yards, 2 TDs


Eventually, if I recommend every Dallas player I should get one right, right? The anemic Cowboys somehow hung 40 points on one of the best defenses in football and it was Cole Beasley who racked up huge fantasy points scoring two touchdowns and going over 100 yards. Beasley saw 11 targets after having only 16 in the previous four weeks. Run the ball with Zeke and work over the middle with the shifty Beasley seems like a simple enough game plan. Maybe this will kick start Scott Linehan to use his slot receiver more often. Couldn’t hurt right?

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

Josh Reynolds, WR – LA (Owned 26%)

Week 6: 1 Rec/-2 yards

It will be tough for Cooper Kupp owners to replace his week-to-week value after it was announced that he is going to miss several weeks with a knee injury. In his absence though second-year receiver Josh Reynolds should be the main beneficiary. There was a lot of hype during the draft last season that saw Reynolds as a mid-3rd round target. However, being buried on the depth chart hasn’t left much room for him to showcase his talents just yet. With how high scoring the Rams’ offense has been this season Reynolds moving up to the WR3 spot this should give an indication of whether or not he can be a fantasy viable asset.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000 or 3rd round pick

TE Add

C.J. Uzomah, TE – CIN (Owned 38%)

Week 6: 6 Rec/57 yards

A lot of fantasy points to go around in week 6 for the Bengals which means that C.J. Uzomah is looking like a rosterable TE. He was Cincinnati’s only targeted tight end with 7 targets last week which was also good for third on the team behind A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. Andy Dalton has always liked having Tyler Eifert as a safety option and it seems that Uzomah will be the primary receiving tight end moving forward. He will be a matchup-based play each week but he is definitely worth an add if you are rotating your starting TE week-to-week.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000 – $3,000,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

5 Overlooked 2016 Performances

Updated: July 16th 2017

While 2016 produced more fantasy football content than ever, I believe these 5 players performances flew under the radar.  This piece will highlight the productive seasons of Pierre Garcon, Cole Beasley, and Carlos Hyde, while exploring Breshad Perriman and Dorial Green-Beckham‘s second seasons in the NFL.  Let’s dig in…

Carlos Hyde RB SF

2014  83 carries – 333 yards – 4.0 YPC – 4 TDs

2015  115 carries – 470 yards – 4.1 YPC – 3 TDs

2016  217 carries – 988 yards – 4.6 YPC – 6 TDs

Being a member of a dreadful 49ers team has not prevented Carlos Hyde from being a productive fantasy asset.  Though an arbitrary measurement, he’s one of eight running backs since 1970 to average over 4 yards per carry in each of his first three seasons (min. 80 carries per season).  Others include Herschel Walker, Thurman Thomas, Fred Taylor, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart.  For San Francisco, there’s nowhere to go but up.  If the 49ers become more competitive, Hyde could vault himself into a weekly RB1 lock.

Pierre Garcon WR WAS

2013  113 receptions – 181 targets – 1,346 yards – 11.9 yards per rec – 5 TDs

2014  68 receptions – 105 targets – 752 yards – 11.1 yards per rec – 3 TDs

2015  72 receptions – 111 targets – 777 yards – 10.8 yards per rec – 6 TDs

2016  79 receptions – 114 targets – 1,041 yards – 13.2 yards per rec – 3 TDs

2016 was Pierre Garcon‘s best season since his 181 target outlier season in 2013.  On 3 more targets than 2015, Garcon improved his Y/R by nearly 2 1/2 yards and increased his catch percentage by almost 5%.  Garcon enters free agency as one of the best available receivers.  Regardless of where he signs this off-season, Garcon has re-established himself as a fantasy relevant player and someone I’d offer a 1 or 2 year RSO contract.

Cole Beasley WR DAL

2014  37 receptions – 49 targets – 420 yards – 11.4 yards per rec – 4 TDs

2015  52 receptions – 75 targets – 536 yards – 10.3 yards per rec – 5 TDs

2016  75 receptions – 98 targets – 833 yards – 11.1 yards per rec – 5 TDs

Cole Beasley quietly finished the 2016 season as the #33 WR in PPR scoring, according to ESPN Scoring Leaders.  With a career-best and team-high 98 targets, Beasley‘s role expanded from valuable role player to the team’s #2 WR.   In my opinion, there’s no reason to expect his role to diminish as he enters his age-28 season because Dallas has many needs to address on the defensive side of the ball this off-season.

Breshad Perriman WR BAL

2015  n/a

2016 33 receptions – 66 targets – 499 yards – 15.1 yards per rec – 3 TDs

While Perriman‘s dynasty value is at an all-time low, his 2016 season encouraged his owners as he was able to suit up for all 16 games.  Playing third and sometimes fourth banana in Baltimore, Perriman finished 2016 with 499 yards.  The yardage may not seem impressive, but Perriman flashed his upside with several big plays.  Let’s not forget he ran a 4.24 at the 2015 NFL Combine.  His potential remains the same as when he was drafted.  Sure we have more awareness of his injury history, but I consider this to be a great time to buy Perriman.  He should enter next season as one of Baltimore’s best options in the passing game and can hopefully take that next step after participating fully in OTAs and training camp.

Dorial Green-Beckham WR PHI

2015 w/ Titans 32 receptions – 66 targets – 549 yards – 17.2 yards per rec – 4 TDs

2016 w/ Eagles 36 receptions – 74 targets – 392 yards – 10.9 yards per rec – 2 TDs

With plenty of opportunity on an Eagles team dearth of receivers, Green-Beckham failed to earn a prominent role in Doug Pederson’s offense.  This is best exemplified by his 13% target share in the 15 games he played last season.  Green-Beckham‘s yards per reception plummeted from 17.2 to 10.9 after failing to show much route versatility besides the slants he so frequently ran.

Among 2nd-year receivers with 70+ targets, Dorial Green-Beckham has the 9th lowest Yards/Target since 1970.  As the Eagles look to bolster Carson Wentz‘ supporting cast, DGB is no lock for a prominent role in 2017.

*All stats from www.pro-football-reference.com


Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999.  Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers keeper and dynasty leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each.  Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO

More Analysis by Dave Sanders

Stock Watch

Updated: October 6th 2016

With three weeks of football to use as a measuring stick trends are immerging and we can start to see who the real fantasy stars for 2016 might be. This is also the ideal time to talk trades since teams that are 0-3 might be ready to sell already and teams that are 3-0 might be more inclined to drop their picks on players for today. I am going to look at players to try and buy, or sell, based on how the community seems to be viewing their value. Players will fall into four categories: buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two seem rather obvious but “Buy High” and “Sell Low” seem counterintuitive. My logic is this, if a player has shown you enough to warrant the price then you should buy now before they are untouchable. Likewise, if a player seems to be trending down but still has brand value to his name it might be time to get something before they become nothing. Alright now that we have the definitions laid out let’s start some trade talks.

BUY LOW, Golden Tate

Golden TateGoodbye Calvin Johnson, hello…. Marvin Jones? When Megatron left the Motor City people immediately saw this as tremendous value for Golden Tate. Instead, Marvin Jones has dominated the Lions’ share of targets (pun intended) and is coming off of a 200-yard receiving performance in week 3. Still, the Lions have no workhorse in the running game and continue to throw the ball at a considerably high rate (120 attempts in 3 games). With games against Chicago, Washington, Jacksonville and New Orleans still on the schedule, I can see Tate being a great complimentary piece to have for the second half of the season.

BUY LOW, Cole Beasley

Cole BeasleyDak Prescott likes to check it down, A LOT! While both he and Tony Romo have used the running game to set up the pass, Romo would often try to push the ball deep downfield to Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams. Instead, Prescott prefers the death by a thousand papercuts approach which has greatly increased Beasley’s role this season. Playing a similar role to Julian Edelman in New England, Beasley looks like a lock to secure 4-7 passes coming across the field and on short curls and screens each game. His floor is much higher than most WR3s, and he’s still underutilized (started in <28% of leagues) in fantasy.  He is likely on just a one-year deal in most leagues, but depending on your situation at WR I could see him being available for just a low draft pick or an underperforming WR3.

SELL HIGH, Todd Gurley

I was originally going to write about LeGarette Blount here, but every other site has been writing up a storm about his dropping value once Tom Brady returns in week 5. Instead, I wanted to create some controversy by saying that you should be selling Todd Gurley. Yes, Gurley is considered to be one of the top dynasty assets today, and yes I know there is no concern about injuries or timeshares in Los Angeles. However, with coach Jeff Fisher signing a new three-year extension he appears to be content with putting out a mediocre roster week-after-week and season-after-season.  What are the chances that the offense becomes any more effective in the next year or two? Taking into account that the team has games against Carolina, New York Jets and Giants, New England, and Seattle still remaining this season I don’t see his opportunities getting much better in 2016. Many owners likely have Gurley on a low rookie contract for either two or three years which may make it hard for you to swallow moving him.  If however you are offered a 2017 1st and either another upstart RB or a sturdy WR you would likely have to seriously consider it.

SELL HIGH, Jets Skilled Players

NYJAfter a monster week 2 that saw the Jets have 3 touchdowns from Matt Forte and 100 yards for Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker week 3 saw the team turn the ball over 8(!) times against the Chiefs. Both receivers also came out of the game less than 100% healthy. These Jet players have currently enjoyed  strong value and could even be great ancillary pieces on a championship team this year. But with the workload that Forte has earned early this season, I find it hard to believe he will  stay healthy come playoff time. Same goes for the oft-injured Marshall who was already questionable coming into the game this past week. Their value will never be higher than it is currently, and you can probably move any of them for a late first or early second in the current market.

BUY HIGH, Mike Evans

 

Mike EvansRemember back in 2014 when it was debatable whether Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans should be the 1.01 in rookie drafts? A lot has changed in just two years and the values of these two have changed quite a bit. Evans has been stellar this season and has established a real connection with second-year quarterback Jameis Winston. His 17 targets in week 3 are mind blowing, and I don’t really see him slowing down anytime soon. It will cost you at least a first round pick to acquire him, but if you have a chance to acquire him this season he’s going to be great. Two matchups in the playoffs against the Saints make him worth every penny.

BUY HIGH, Stefon Diggs

 

Stefon DiggsLaquon who? Stefon Diggs has been a beast for the Vikings the first three weeks of 2016. With concerns about him being a Charles Johnson 2.0, his value was at best lukewarm during the offseason. Currently, he has 47% of the receiving yards in Minnesota’s pass attack. Norv Turner will likely continue to feed his best player. From his fast start to the season there won’t be too much concern about him being a bust, and many of his owners won’t be actively shopping Diggs now. Still, it’s every fantasy player’s duty to at least see what the asking price is, and if it’s reasonable he’s worth it.

SELL LOW, John Brown

 

John BrownDo not be fooled by the last two weeks’ stat line. Brown only played 57% of the team’s snaps and benefited greatly from Palmer throwing 50(!) passes in Buffalo. He then benefited again from a favorable game script that saw the Cardinals down for most of their week 4 game against LA. He still is playing behind Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd and has even seen Jaron Brown take away from his time on the field. With so many mouths to feed (including David Johnson out of the backfield) it will be difficult to rely week to week on Brown. If any team is hurting at their WR I would look to move him their way for any other WR3 at this point.

SELL LOW, Randall Cobb

 

Randall CobbJordy is back! Rodgers is moving the ball again, but Cobb is still lacking from what you would expect from a reliable WR2. PPR scores of 13, 9, and 4 are leaving a sour taste in fantasy owner’s mouths. Unless you purchased him recently, one would assume that he’s being paid pretty handsomely. He still has great name value and the offense he plays in offers the opportunity to have solid fantasy weeks. However, if I had the choice between Cobb and other receivers such as Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders or Doug Baldwin I would be moving him without looking back.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Receiveland

Updated: July 7th 2016

In the Zone

First off, I’d be remiss as someone born and raised in Cleveland to not talk about the first championship in 52 years as the Cleveland Cavaliers became part of history in coming back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Warriors. Watching the final four and a half minutes of the game and seeing the Cavs hold the Warriors scoreless was very similar to my waiting out my semi-final playoff matchup in my main Reality Sports Online league last year. While that one didn’t go my way on the final play as I’ve written about before on a Drew Brees dumpoff to Tim Hightower, this one did and it was beyond my wildest expectations.

Outside of family events, this by far was the best event I’ve experienced and all the better that it was on Father’s Day as a I hit the floor in a sea of emotions when the buzzer sounded like I played in the game. In many ways I’m still celebrating this team as The Chasedown and The Three replace The Drive, The Fumble, The Blown Save, The Move. Suffice to say, I cannot wait until the championship gear we ordered shows up on my doorstep and am grateful to LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and the rest of the Cavs for providing me the freedom to watch sports with no nervousness that the worst will happen going forward.

With that aside, it is time to talk a little bit about some wide receivers and tight ends that I like for 2016. I’ll stay away from the obvious names that may not be available in your auctions or will command top dollar. Writing articles like this are certainly bittersweet for me because I feel like I’m giving people in my leagues insight into potential targets of mine, but the beauty of Reality Sports Online marketplace pricing makes value fairly subjective. Before I jump in, one of the best in the business at dissecting wide receivers for fantasy football is NFL.com’s Matt Harmon through his Reception Perception series. If you are serious about contending in your league, Harmon’s strength is dissecting the route tree receivers run and the success and advanced metrics that support predictive analysis.

1) Tyler Lockett & Doug Baldwin, Wide Receivers, Seattle Seahawks

Tyler Lockett did a little bit of everything last year for the Seahawks and when Russell Wilson started airing it out in Seattle in Week 11, Lockett became a serious threat as a receiver, including catching 30 of his 40 targets for 444 yards and five touchdowns in seven games. As Harmon pointed out in Reception Perception, the Seahawks love taking deep shots with Lockett as the “nine” route was the route that the Seahawks ran the most with Lockett in his sample. The Seahawks targeted Lockett two to three times a game down the stretch and while some of those lacked success, Wilson works tirelessly with his receivers in the offseason so you can expect Lockett to be the recipient of amplified targets based on his ability to beat different coverages with frequency.

In leagues that factor in return yardage, Lockett is even more valuable. My fellow league-mate and USA Today Network’s Ryan Bonini recently compared Lockett to Randall Cobb and I think he could be right in terms of his rookie to second year ascension.

Further, if you are one who thinks the Seahawks will turn into a ground and pound team again at the beginning of the season and are paying $20 million plus to Thomas Rawls in your leagues, you may want to rethink that decision based on Doug Baldwin’s recent four year, $46 million ($24 million guaranteed) extension.

To me, this contract extension signals the Seahawks transition to being a passing team. Drafting C.J. Prosise, who excels as a pass catching running back as a former college receiver shows that the team wants to surround Wilson with the full arsenal of aerial weapons, as well as highlights that they are not fully invested in Rawls, who is coming off a significant ankle injury after being an undrafted rookie success last season. Look, I’m not sending Rawls to Siberia; however, I think his sample size is still small enough that in spite of an astronomical yards per carry last season that the Seahawks don’t have much capital invested in him, which makes him a scary dynasty asset to predict (think C.J. Anderson last season).

Back to Baldwin. In the same post Game 11 stretch as Lockett, Baldwin amassed 40 receptions on 53 targets for 590 yards and 11 touchdowns. Talk about crazy efficiency, but also note that Baldwin went bananas in a four game stretch with multiple touchdowns in each of those in the midst of your fantasy football playoffs.

Those in the fantasy football community talk about regression frequently and those who don’t understand the term automatically associate it with something bad. However, it more refers to statistical deviation and performances regressing to a mean or average. Surely, Baldwin’s touchdowns should come down this year or get closer to his career averages (29 total touchdowns in five seasons); however, would you really complain if he scored eight touchdowns for your fantasy squad this year as a top 24 wideout?

Based on the Reality Sports Online data I’ve seen, it is likely that Baldwin is a free agent in your auction and while others pursue some bigger names like T.Y. Hilton and Keenan Allen, Baldwin figures to perform on a similar level for a boatload less money. Ride the continued perception of the Seahawks ground game to get their wideouts on the cheap.

2) Coby Fleener, Tight End, New Orleans Saints

For fantasy owners seeking a quote to bank on for getting a steal at the suddenly declining tight end position, “He’s Always Open” is hopefully not the “We’ll run him until he throws up” quote from yesteryear (C.J. Spiller on Buffalo). However, Saints Quarterback Drew Brees uttered these words recently about new free agent signing Coby Fleener after playing the NFC South last season and watching lots of film on Fleener.

Early returns are that Fleener’s getting open in practice too, for what’s that worth. It may not matter. When a tight end like Benjamin Watson has 74 receptions on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 touchdowns at age 35, following Jimmy Graham’s run in New Orleans, it is clear that the system produces opportunities for tight ends. In Indy, Fleener was forced to block and was inconsistent without Andrew Luck.

If there were any doubts in how New Orleans values the position, Fleener’s 5 year, $36 million contract with $18 million guaranteed should quell those questions. Now, the only question becomes whether or not a player with a history of drops makes the most of always being open. To me, the smart money in your auction is to take the chance on Fleener on a one to two year deal around $5-6 million a year. Assuming health, your reward should be a Top 8 tight end with upside.

3) Daniel Braverman, Wide Receiver, Chicago Bears

File this one in the rookie sleeper category, but Chicago’s Daniel Braverman is a slot wide receiver who shows an uncanny ability to get significant yards after the catch and catch the ball in traffic. If you aren’t aware of him, he left Western Michigan after his junior season in which he caught 108 balls for 1,367 yards with 13 touchdowns. The 5’10, 177 lb. Braverman runs a 4.47 40 yard dash and was a 7th round selection of the Chicago Bears.

His story is compelling as he grew up in South Florida playing with an incredible work ethic and a chip on his shoulder because he was often overlooked among 5 star recruits. Braverman is the protege of former NFL wideout and fellow Miami University alum Sly Johnson who has been his mentor since 7th grade in South Florida. You certainly want to root for a guy as a fantasy owner who has overcome his mother leaving Braverman and his father at a young age.

When you watch tape of Braverman like this game against Ohio State and you see plays that show a little bit of Golden Tate, a splash of Julian Edelman (perhaps it is the Jewish receiver connection), and some Cole Beasley. He shined in two games against top ten opponents Michigan State and Ohio State, finishing the former with 13 catches for 109 yards and the latter with 10 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown, showing the ability to break free over the middle while running all sorts of routes. Braverman also handled some punts and kickoffs which would add to his fantasy value.

What makes Braverman attractive to me are the targets that exited with Martellus Bennett, as well as Marquess Wilson’s foot injury landing him on the PUP list to begin the season. Add in the fact that Eddie Royal is 30 years old and we all know what he brings, and this brings unique opportunity for Braverman who seems like the type of player that will work his way into playing time and then play well enough to never relinquish it. Word is he’s already seeing some snaps with the 1’s while Royal has been out.

For a price of a third round rookie pick or a flier multi-year deal in your free agency auction, there’s significant value to be had on Braverman and I’m all in on the Braverman Express.


Matt Goodwin is entering his third season as a writer for Reality Sports Online and is in year four of his main league. He also contributes for numberFire. He is an avid sports fan from Cleveland, Ohio who would count a championship for a Cleveland major sports team a close second behind getting married to his wife Renee and the births of his children, Jory (6 year old son) and Lainie (18 month old daughter) and the Cleveland Cavaliers have finally provided that reality! Matt loves mid 90’s hip-hop, playing pick-up hoops, traveling, Ohio State football and Arizona basketball, watching Glengarry Glen Ross for the millionth time and being outside the few months it doesn’t rain in Seattle where he lives. He can be found on Twitter @mattgoody2 and hopes you continue to read his In the Zone articles.

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