The Unexpected: Week 5
There are always surprises at the start of the NFL season, some of which may be sustainable through the year while others likely are not. Determining if your player’s good start is something which will continue may be the difference in figuring out if your team is a true contender or possibly making a poor trade. With four weeks of the NFL season already in the books, we can start to look at trends and get some idea of different players’ usage going forward.
Quarterbacks
Alex Smith QB2 – Smith rocketed out of the gates with a 4-touchdown thrashing of New England in week 1. The Kansas City starter made few mistakes since. Smith leads the NFL in passer rating and completion percentage while pacing the Chiefs to the only undefeated record remaining. He has been nothing short of great so far throwing for 8 touchdowns with 0 interceptions.
Moving forward – While I foresee continued solid play from Smith, do not expect this production to remain. The usage is very much in line with recent history, currently tied for 18th in attempts, but his rates are not. His current 76% completion rate leads the all-time NFL season mark (Sam Bradford 2016) by more than 4 points. The 8.8 yards per attempt is 1.4 more than any Smith season in Kansas City. Look for solid QB2 numbers going forward and a quality weekly streaming option.
Jared Goff QB10 – What a difference environment can make. The second year starter went from a historically bad rookie season to the current leading passer in yards per attempt and third ranked quarterback in passer rating. The additions of left tackle Andrew Whitworth and center John Sullivan transformed one of the worst lines in football last year benefitting both the run and pass game. The Rams also brought in a host of new receiving options for Goff including Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods in free agency plus Cooper Kupp in the draft. Most importantly Los Angeles brought in 30 year old head coach Sean McVay to completely revamp the offensive scheme. Goff’s throws became far more manageable this season including increased check downs to Todd Gurley out of the backfield and more open throws throughout the field.
Moving forward – The schedule could become much more difficult over the rest of season with few matchups for which I would be thrilled about for Goff and the Rams. Goff only ranks 22nd in passing attempts over the season and provides nothing as a rusher to fall back on. I would not count on Goff as my starter in RSO leagues. I am more likely to try and capitalize on the hot start with a trade or continue stashing Goff if I drafted him as a cheap backup/streaming option.
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt RB2 – No rookie started out hotter than Kansas City running back Kareem Hunt. Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yards by nearly 40% over the next player (Todd Gurley) thanks to an enormous 7.4 yards per attempt to start the season. The rookie also displayed significant receiving ability catching 13 balls for a robust 12.1 yards per reception.
Moving forward – Hunt should remain a locked in RB1 throughout the year. Kansas City should be competitive throughout the season, he shows off impressive lower body strength to power through tacklers, and enough burst to turn open lanes and bad tackling angles into big plays. He is also heavily involved in the passing game. The KC offensive line has consistently opened up huge holes for Hunt this season as well. He is a set and forget player at this point.
Chris Thompson RB6 – Perhaps no player has done more with less than Washington running back Chris Thompson. Thompson owns a hefty 7.1 rushing yards per attempt over 20 carries in addition to a huge 16.8 yards per reception for 14 catches which combine to a massive 11 yards per touch. The Washington passing down back also contributed four touchdowns so far.
Moving forward – Thompson is a really good player but anywhere near this level of production is unsustainable. He averages less than 9 touches per game and that is unlikely to improve much with a load of offensive weapons to choose from in Washington and a quarterback who generally spreads the ball around. Thompson is nothing more than a flex play in deeper leagues. Sell if you can get anything of significance for him.
Wide Receivers
Stephon Diggs WR1 / Adam Thielen WR13 – The Minnesota receivers find themselves ranked well above preseason expectations so far. Each is top-3 in receiving yardage and Diggs has scored four times already. Case Keenum has been surprisingly solid in Sam Bradford’s absence and the two Vikings own a very large target share of the offense. Both accumulated 32 targets, double the next most targeted player on the team. Tight end Kyle Rudolph has reverted to the low volume, low yardage receiver we saw most of his career without Bradford and with an improved offensive line.
Moving forward – There are a lot of questions going forward for two high volume players. It is fair to wonder how the loss of rookie sensation Dalvin Cook will affect these receivers and the offense as a whole. Will the Latavius Murray/Jerrick McKinnon combo provide enough in the run game to open up deeper route combinations? Will Rudolph gain a larger target share with the return of Bradford? What does Michael Floyd, who reportedly had a superb training camp and likely replaces inconsequential former first-round pick Laquon Treadwell, bring to the table? The questions have me downgrading both slightly going forward. Diggs remains a must-start player for me but I am looking at Thielen as more of a flex play going forward.
Chris Hogan WR10 – The former Bill performed well so far in his time in New England providing a nice downfield threat with reliable hands. Hogan has been on the plus side of the touchdown equation scoring four times this season in the high powered New England offense and is tied for second in targets on the team. He remains a reliable target for Tom Brady on a team with many injuries at wide receiver.
Moving forward – Hogan will have a big role in the offense but will be a volatile weekly play with likely touchdown regression coming. With plenty of quality receiving options available for the Patriots including Gronkowski, Cooks, Amendola, and White; consider Hogan more of a borderline WR2/WR3 going forward.
Tight Ends
Charles Clay TE4 – Clay was one of my featured streaming options going into the season. Buffalo ended up trading away the talented Sammy Watkins to the Rams and trading for Jordan Matthews before the season started. With speedster Marquise Goodwin moving on Clay became Tyrod Taylor’s only significant returning target left outside of running back Lesean McCoy. Matthews immediately suffered a chest injury further delaying his familiarity with Taylor which focused more of the offense through Clay early in the season.
Moving forward – Matthews suffered another injury last week, this time resulting in thumb surgery which could keep him out for a month. The low volume Buffalo passing attack is not a fantasy player’s dream, but Clay owns a large 25% market share so far and Matthew’s time off should ensure a continued big role. Consider Clay a weekly starter with the number of significant injuries at the position.
Evan Engram TE7 – One of the golden rules in fantasy football is not relying on rookie tight ends. They rarely have big passing roles the first season taking time to learn all the nuances of the position. Engram is proving the exception to the rule. I wrote an entire article this offseason detailing the virtues of Engram but even I was not counting on immediate starting fantasy value. The rookie is currently tied for second in targets, tied for fourth in receptions, and ranks sixth in yardage among all tight ends.
Moving forward – The Giants have virtually no run game to speak of, thanks in large part to a struggling offensive line, which likely means a continued short pass-happy offense from coach Ben McAdoo for the rest of season. The athletic tight end has at least four receptions each game so far and his targets have trended upward throughout the season. Engram should be a locked-in weekly starter given his consistent heavy usage and lack of quality options at the position.
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
Team: Great Odin’s Raven (Dan Pizzuta, numberFire) 
