Time for Some Auction!
If you’re a returning Reality Sports Online user and if you’re anything like me, you’ve been studying potential free agents since your last game of 2013. Some of you may already have had your rookie drafts. The typical RSO user is pretty strategic and dedicated, so most owners who are going into their 2nd Free Agent Auction are probably looking for guidance on who to target and how much to offer up for potential free agents. If you are a new user, the last piece I wrote “Drop ‘Em Like It’s Hot” should help give you a feel for contract values in existing RSO leagues for your first action-packed Free Agency Auction.
To further analyze the database of league data I sifted through in my last article, I’m preparing Free Agent Rankings and analysis for your benefit for players who are owned by less than 50% of 2013 RSO users on multi-year deals. I will have two lists, the first being Top 25 Free Agent rankings in this article and the second being a 26-50 Top Free Agents list in an article coming soon. Either way, these rankings and analysis represent players, which depending on your team needs and salary cap situations, should be available in most leagues and who I believe should be targeted most.
Before we jump into my rankings and analysis, I do want to share a little bit of auction strategy for you. First off, you’ll see some quarterbacks on my lists. You may say, well, I already have that position taken care of. The point is, someone else in your league may not, and just like the NFL, you want to have valuable pieces on your team no matter what your relative need may be. Plus, don’t let someone get a quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger for $1M a year just because you have RGIII wrapped up for 3 years and you are high on your incumbent. Bid up quarterbacks as much as you can without overextending yourself to a point you are uncomfortable with if that player landed on your team. Basically, don’t give your rival owner a free pass to talent on the cheap because you already are taken care of at a certain position.
When the 2014 RSO Recommended Contract Values came out, I was floored to see someone like Matt Ryan at a 3 year, $4M contract and went back and forth with the RSO guys on that one, while begging to get into their league this year if that’s how little they value Matty Ice. Remember, a few owners will be desperate in season for talent, and when you have the surprise QB or the well known one who turned his game around on a friendly contract or that they can’t live without, you will get value for them in a trade assuming you are in a league with rational decision makers. Also, some owners may have approached last year’s inaugural auction like an NBA lottery pick that just got his first paycheck, so they may be capped out. In essence, don’t let the owners who spent wisely get every available talent on the cheap. It also never hurts to have a good backup as owners of Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick found out last year.
Additionally, consider how the NFL values a position before you are throwing premium dollars at the wrong player or a player at the wrong position. Remember that the shelf lives of running backs tend to decline around the 2,000 carry landmark (which players like Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster are rapidly approaching). All things being equal, a premium wide receiver is among the most valuable players to target for multi-year deals. They play a position valued in today’s passing league and can at a high level deeper into their 30’s. If I’m paying premium dollars for a running back and putting three years into him, rest assured I want someone young and at least slightly proven. Otherwise, I’m comfortable just being somewhat conservative at running back and finding value wherever I can on a budget. Think players like Rashad Jennings and Danny Woodhead, etc.
You definitely need to consider your league scoring system and how many players your league starts at certain positions as well. I’m in a league with three flex spots and only one starting running back required out of 10 starters. It is also a full point PPR and a league in which quarterback sacks and incompletions are punished with negative points and interceptions are worth -5 points. For perspective, I currently may be entering 2014 with no running backs on my roster, which I know I’ll need to address, but with only one starter spot potentially to fill, I don’t have to overpay for the best free agent running back available if I value someone else more.
Look at the player’s real contract too. If you are targeting a “system” guy, make sure he’ll be in the system for the length you are signing him up for, or if he’s a pending free agent, that he stands to benefit from being a free agent. The RSO Free Agent Auction moves lightning quick and you don’t have time to check on a player’s real life contract status in the middle of the auction.
Last disclosure before I dive into my rankings-there are no kickers or DST’s listed in these rankings as essentially all of them were owned by less than 50% owners on multi-year deals. If you’ve read my previous pieces, you know I love the Seahawks DST and there a few others that maybe worth holding onto or getting on a two year deal. I wouldn’t recommend going more than two years on a DST as these tend to shift quickly production wise with free agent moves.
| Rank | Player | POS | % Owned | Rec Contract Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alshon Jeffery | WR | 26% | 3yrs, $60m |
| 2 | Andre Ellington | RB | 19% | 3yrs, $50m |
| 3 | Josh Gordon | WR | 48% | 2yrs, $30m |
| 4 | Nick Foles | QB | 6% | 2yrs, $32m |
| 5 | Julius Thomas | TE | 5% | 2yrs, $38m |
| 6 | Jordan Cameron | TE | 22% | 3yrs, $35m |
| 7 | Michael Floyd | WR | 33% | 3yrs, $33m |
| 8 | Shane Vereen | RB | 33% | 2yrs, $25m |
| 9 | Joique Bell | RB | 3% | 2yrs, $20m |
| 10 | Rueben Randle | WR | 24% | 2yrs, $18m |
| 11 | Pierre Thomas | RB | 8% | 2yrs, $18m |
| 12 | Julian Edelman | WR | 5% | 2yrs, $22m |
| 13 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | 26% | 1yr, $10m |
| 14 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR | 12% | 2yrs, $20m |
| 15 | Toby Gerhart | RB | 1% | 2yrs, $15m |
| 16 | Kendall Wright | WR | 27% | 2yrs, $16m |
| 17 | Terrance Williams | WR | 26% | 3yrs, $20m |
| 18 | Jordan Reed | TE | 23% | 2yrs, $18m |
| 19 | Kyle Rudolph | TE | 40% | 2yrs, $15m |
| 20 | Rashad Jennings | RB | 1% | 1yr, $9m |
| 21 | Philip Rivers | QB | 14% | 2yrs, $14m |
| 22 | Dennis Pitta | TE | 11% | 2yrs, $15m |
| 23 | Zach Ertz | TE | 34% | 3yrs, $24m |
| 24 | Khiry Robinson | RB | 0% | 2yrs, $12m |
| 25 | Anquan Boldin | WR | 18% | 1yr, $8m |
1. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears
The prize of the free agent class. He’s in the best duo in the league arguably and one of the best offenses, even if Jay Cutler has history with Brandon Marshall. Jeffery shows amazing timing and fights for the ball with corners and his best is yet to come. Also in his third year, where most wide receivers show the biggest improvement. Way less downside risk and injury risk than running backs.
2. Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Exactly what I look for in a fantasy running back, Ellington is young and electric, flashes excellent pass catching ability and can make the big play. He’s also on a loaded offense with an established receiving corps and the team addressed their offensive line needs in the offseason. The contract value is based on potential and how much speed he has. Should put up Top 15 performance at his position for the season and get plenty of activity in a really good offense in spite of his diminutive size.
3. Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns
Obviously his value takes a hit if he’s suspended for all of 2014, but talent wise he’s a Top 5 wide receiver and did so much with so little offensive support or quarterback play in 2013. $15m a year for Gordon is a bargain if he doesn’t get a full year suspension and the two years are factoring in he’s on his last strike with both the Browns and the NFL drug policy. Worst case if you get him and he’s out for the year is that you put him on injured reserve and get 50% of your value back. I wouldn’t give Gordon more than two years based on the suspension risk.
4. Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Already tackled Foles in a franchise tag article, but I’m highest on him of all the QB’s who may be available via free agency. Foles has tons of weapons and benefits from Chip Kelly’s offensive system and pace. He also seems to have the tools and makeup to succeed over time. I wouldn’t give him more than 2 years, just in case Foles regresses significantly this season if other defenses figure him out.
5. Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos
Peyton Manning loves targeting the Tight End when he has one worth throwing to, especially in the red zone. Thomas was highly efficient with 65 catches on 89 targets in 2013 with 12 TD’s in 14 games. He also had two games with over 100 yards and 2 TD’s in the same game. Tight End is a relative value position and Thomas is a Top 5 option for certain. My only hesitancy here is that he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2015 and nobody knows how much longer Manning will remain a Bronco.
6. Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns
Cameron’s value for 2014 is somewhat tied to Josh Gordon playing, but let’s assume that the Browns resist the urge to start Johnny Football and Brian Hoyer wins the starting job. In two full games with Hoyer, Cameron was a beast with 16 receptions on 23 targets for 157 yards and 4 TD’s. Cameron will benefit with or without Gordon as Head Coach Mike Pettine’s plan with OC Kyle Shanahan is to feature a running based attack and if the defense throws an extra man in the box, Cameron, like many Shanahan coached tight ends in the past will exploit that matchup every time. He is a 2015 unrestricted free agent, but word out of Cleveland is that he’s a prime candidate for the Franchise Tag, so I feel pretty good about a 3 year RSO deal.
7. Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Was a star in 2013, but many fantasy owners didn’t even notice. Made the most of his targets and had 17 catches over 20 yards in 2013. Has the size and speed to be targeted more in the red zone and Arizona’s offense as noted above in Andre Ellington’s synopsis will be much better. Floyd is in his third year and expected to break out as his teammates have showered him with praise this offseason and Larry Fitzgerald becomes more of a possession receiver in 2014. A free agent in 2016, but a star in this league in 2014 who has Dez Bryant type upside.
8. Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots
A PPR league’s dream running back. Vereen had 21 catches for 162 yards and a TD in the three games he played together with Rob Gronkowski, and then had 12 catches for 153 yards in the game Gronk went down with his ACL injury. With LeGarrette Blount now in Pittsburgh, perhaps Vereen gets more of an opportunity to run the ball too, especially if Stevan Ridley continues his fumble issues that has landed him in Coach Belichick’s doghouse. Vereen is expected to see more snaps this season and flashed his rushing potential in Week 1 last season vs. Buffalo with over 100 yards rushing and 58 yards receiving on 7 catches. Vereen is a 2015 free agent, but is worthy of a short multi-year deal as his versatility is a differentiator.
9. Joique Bell, RB, Detroit Lions
Bell is an underrated back from 2013 who figures to be more involved in the Lions rushing game. With so many passing weapons taking the pressure off of Calvin Johnson, Bell also figures in the screen game as well. He did miss OTAs with a knee injury, but figures to be ready for training camp. Also benefits from being in same backfield as the brittle Reggie Bush. He just signed a three year contract in 2014 offseason.
10. Rueben Randle, WR, NY Giants
Figures to be the touchdown maker for the Giants receiving corps this season and figures to build more chemistry with Eli Manning, as he has been talked up in OTAs. Will benefit heavily from OC Ben McAdoo (formerly of the Packers) offense. Free agent in 2016.
11. Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints
Seems boring, but his production is not. Rumored to be in the role vacated by Darren Sproles. His 77 catches in 2013 were huge and he did have 147 carries in 2013. Don’t expect that type of workload necessarily, but the Saints did just sign Thomas to a three year extension in spite of his missing the playoffs last season with a chest injury. Rumors also have the Saints moving to more of a balanced offense as well.
12. Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
Was a PPR stud who the Patriots re-signed in the offseason. His value is somewhat tied to how the other wide receivers perform and mostly to Rob Gronkowski’s recovery from injury. You still want to own the slot WR in the Patriots offense, but tread carefully.
13. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Should probably be on the “comeback” list, but I like Maclin enough on the regular auction list on a one year RSO deal. While Jordan Matthews could contribute right away as a rookie, Maclin is the most talented wideout on the Eagles and remember, he was a first round draft pick in 2009. Should bounce back and intentionally signed a one year prove it deal to highlight his value in free agency.
14. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos
Call this a good situation. I don’t love Sanders, but I love how the Broncos could use his versatility in the next few years. Remember, he’s not Eric Decker, but he should be used frequently and could occupy Wes Welker’s slot position if he leaves after this season.
15. Toby Gerhart, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
As a general rule, I usually don’t draft Jaguars as I can’t stand watching their games (just too boring). However, Gerhart was brought in for a reason-to be the bell-cow of the Jags’ offense. They like his leg drive and ability to gain yards after contact and Gus Bradley seems to be trying to build a version of the Seahawks in Jacksonville. Maybe Gerhart’s low mileage could make him a poor man’s Marshawn Lynch.
16. Kendall Wright, WR, Tennessee Titans
Another PPR machine. Had 94 catches for 1,079 yards in 2013, but only 2 touchdowns. Perhaps Ken Whisenhunt can turn him into the Keenan Allen of the Titans, but he will need better QB play to make that happen. A free agent in 2016, so a two year play is smartest.
17. Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Had a very solid rookie campaign and flashed big play ability and consistency, as well as ability to get into end zone. On a very talented Cowboys offense who figures to be in a lot of shootouts again in 2014 with a weak defense. Will make teams pay for double-teaming Dez Bryant and fits in well with new OC Scott Linehan’s scheme. Under contract through 2017, so plan accordingly.
18. Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins
Has top 5 tight end potential if he stays healthy. Should benefit from a healthy RGIII and Desean Jackson free agent signing. A serious red zone threat who opens up the middle of the field and gets chunks of yardage. Big concern is concussion and injury history, which tempers enormous potential. A two year, $18m deal best balances the injury risk and the upside.
19. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings
Yes, lots of tight ends on my list, so you could get the right one as a value if you wait to grab one that you like. New OC Norv Turner loves using the tight end position and Rudolph provides a big target with good hands for whomever starts the season at QB. He’s in a contract year, so don’t overextend yourself.
20. Rashad Jennings, RB, NY Giants
The best option on a team that likes to run the ball and was outstanding in 2013 for Oakland. Solid in pass protection and currently working with the first team offense. Only threat is if David Wilson comes back fully healthy. I wouldn’t go long-term on Jennings because he is 29 and has been a career journeyman, but for 2014 he could make you a smart owner.
21. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
Was a top 5 QB in many leagues last season. Showed poise and better decision making and has plenty of dump-off options and better young talent than he’s had in years with Keenan Allen and Ladarius Green expecting to have prominent roles in 2014. Represents a great value and I’d even consider paying $7m a year for him to be my backup or spot starter as he is a rhythm QB who can be scorching hot at the right time in your fantasy season.
22. Dennis Pitta, TE, Baltimore Ravens
His big contract extension in 2014 shows the Ravens’ need for a middle of the field receiving option. New OC Gary Kubiak loves throwing to tight ends and Pitta has a solid track record and appears to be fully healthy. Solid production expected.
23. Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Most tight ends in recent history have had their breakthrough in Year 2. Ertz didn’t see many snaps in 2013 namely due to his blocking deficiencies. However, most within the Eagles brass are assuming a prominent role for Ertz this season and that could have been part of the decision to rid themselves of Desean Jackson. Has Gronk like upside and a huge 6’5, 250 lb. frame, so get on board on the ground floor and enjoy the ride.
24. Khiry Robinson, RB, New Orleans Saints
I could have put more obvious guys here like Ladarius Green or Ben Tate; however, Robinson is type of runner you want to have in a New Orleans offense that is trying to be more balanced in 2014. He runs angry and hard and Bill Parcells said he reminds him of Curtis Martin. He really impressed me with 13 carries for 57 yards and a TD vs. Seattle in the playoffs. With Mark Ingram potentially on the way out after the season, Robinson holds future value too.
25. Anquan Boldin WR, San Francisco 49ers
I know the 49ers get Michael Crabtree back for a full season and have added Stevie Johnson, but I don’t really care. Boldin is a game-changer, plays aggressively and the team wins when he sees the ball. 85 catches for 1,179 yards and 7 TD’s in 2013 as a 32 year old receiver, followed by a strong playoffs. Boldin still figures to see 8-10 targets a game and does the most with them. I could even justify an extra year on the contract if you wanted to get the average value down a little as he is a free agent in 2016.
