Into the Regular Season
The preseason brings lots of excitement for those of us deprived of the NFL for so long. It also leads to some of the worst analysis from fantasy “experts”. Reviewing stat lines from preseason games is mostly meaningless. Touch sample sizes are typically incredibly small with starters playing very limited snaps. Teams usually incorporate very “vanilla” play calls which may not be similar to what happens during the regular season. Backups compete against second and third string players or worse. While much of what we see in preseason play is essentially worthless in predicting fantasy value for the upcoming season, examining player situations and delving deeper into game tape can provide some useful observations for the coming season.
Moving Up
The most significant mover of the preseason is Chiefs’ running back Kareem Hunt. The devastating torn PCL and LCL injury to Kansas City starting running back Spencer Ware opens the door for the third round rookie. Hunt finished as one of Pro Football Focus’ highest ranked backs in college at Toledo and flashed nice plays throughout the preseason (along with some not-so-nice “rookie” moments). The Chiefs are left only with Hunt, Chancandrick West, and re-signed C.J. Spiller as the only running backs on the roster. Hunt should see plenty of work for Kansas City this season.
Perhaps no player benefits more from a quarterback change than Miami wide receiver Devante Parker. Gone are the days of Ryan Tannehill force-feeding short passes to Jarvis Landry with Tannehill out for the season. In comes Jay Cutler at quarterback with the arm talent to aggressively attack defenses down field. The former Bear also has the mindset to throw into tight coverage and allow his physically gifted receivers to make plays on their own. Parker is set up for a big third season in the NFL. Cutler also solidifies deep threat Kenny Stills’ value while at the same time likely limiting the volume Landry has seen over the course of his career.
Questions about Kelvin Benjamin’s role in the new Carolina offense with two high draft pick offensive weapons and his ballooned weight in training camp depressed his fantasy value to the point that Benjamin moved all the way down to WR38 in early RSO auctions. Second round draft pick Curtis Samuel was slowed by injury and no other receiver emerged during the preseason. Benjamin clearly appears like the Panthers’ WR1 right now. Early Benjamin buyers could have received quite the steal.
Wait and See Mode
Seahawks’ backfield historically holds good fantasy value during the Russell Wilson era in Seattle. Wilson’s ability as a rusher prevents teams from keying on running backs opening running lanes for the back. Last season Wilson suffered early injuries limiting his mobility throughout the season. Wilson’s injuries and some horrendous run blocking by Seattle’s inexperienced offensive line inevitably led to a big decline in the Seahawks’ rushing game effectiveness. Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, and C.J. Prosise competed for first-team duties this offseason but all suffered from minor injuries during the preseason. Rawls and Lacy likely split rushing down carries limiting the fantasy appeal of either. You will want to avoid this backfield early in the season until injuries take hold or someone emerges as the clear top option. Prosise will hold value as a low end flex play, especially in PPR leagues, as the passing down back and only real receiver out of the backfield. This is particularly true early in the season with an extremely shallow receiving core behind starters Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson. Tyler Lockett will be eased back into the receiving rotation after a gruesome leg injury late last year.
The Green Bay backfield was ugly last season. Converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery filled in admirably in a limited role last year after injuries destroyed the running back core but did not receive enough volume to be a consistent fantasy option. I was hoping someone would stand out in the preseason to take over the primary back role. No one did. Montgomery was limited with injuries throughout the preseason and struggled with pass protection once again. All three Green Bay running backs drafted this year (Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, and Devante Mays) made the 53-man roster. None consistently showed enough to earn a big role. Montgomery starts as the “lead” back and his receiving skills should make him a solid flex play but it remains to be seen whether his health and pass protection struggles will allow enough time on the field for enough volume to be a consistent RB2 option. Williams makes for a nice stash in case Montgomery misses time.
Moving Down
Expectations for Terrelle Pryor and Tyreek Hill were extremely high this offseason with both being typically drafted as high to low-end WR2s. Many thought each had WR1 upside. The preseason showing from both should dampen those expectations. Both had massive problems catching the football with drops galore, a huge issue on teams whose passing game relies primarily on short, high percentage throws. Pryor also continued his very raw route running skills from last season. The Washington and Kansas City offense will undoubtedly run through superstar tight ends, Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce. Pryor could easily end up as the third most targeted player in Washington behind Reed and Jamison Crowder. Hill is due for negative touchdown regression this year and will be fighting for touches behind Kelce on a low volume Kansas City passing attack. Consider both players boom-or-bust WR3s as of now.
The unknown timetable of Andrew Luck’s return moves all Colts down in the rankings to start the season most notably T.Y. Hilton. Backup quarterback Scott Tolzein looked horrendous this preseason, so much so that Indianapolis traded for Patriots’ third string quarterback Jacoby Brissett to eventually take over backup duties. This could lead to prime buy-low opportunities for Hilton and Luck.
Blake Bortles remarkably is still the starting quarterback in Jacksonville. Chad Henne was unable to supplant Bortles in a bizarre one-week open competition for the starting spot. Bortles might be benched at any time this season and the backup is not much of an improvement. The dreadful quarterback situation means bad things for any Jaguars player’s fantasy fortunes including Allen Robinson and Leonard Fournette. The Jacksonville offensive line displayed little improvement this preseason and Fournette is already dealing with a foot injury. Just stay away from this offense.
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
