Week 11 Street FA Report

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By Nick Andrews

Updated: November 18th 2019

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Jay Ajayi, RB – PHI (Owned 46.5%)

Week 10: N/A

Weeks after it was being reported that Jay Ajayi is ready to return to football after tearing his ACL last season he has finally found a home with a familiar team. The Eagles announced that Darren Sproles is done for the season and Jordan Howard is nursing his own injury so it made sense that the team brings in a veteran that both knows the offensive playbook and has shown success in recent times. Ajayi is unlikely to make a big impact immediately unless an unforeseen injury to rookie Miles Sanders forced him to be, so it will be cautious optimism at this point to add him to your roster. Still, any running back that could have potential goal-line opportunities is worth the roster spot for the stretch run of the season.

Suggested Bid: $3,000,000

RB Add

Jalen Richard, RB – OAK (Owned 37%)

Week 10: 2 Car/0 yards, 4 Rec/43 yards

Whether it has been game script or Josh Jacobs’ injury, Jalen Richard has been an under the radar option in PPR leagues for RBs during these past two heavy bye weeks. Used primary in a Darren Sproles-esk capacity, Richard has had 10 and 8 points the last two weeks on the back of seven (7) receptions and just less than 100 yards receiving. He will not be stealing many carries away from Jacobs, never having more than four (4) carries in a game, but his receiving ability does give him upside in spreads that don’t favor the Raiders moving forward. Deep leagues that are in a pinch for running back help can look to Richard as an alternative option to the Ajayi sweepstakes.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Add

Josh Reynolds, WR – LAR (Owned 39%)

Week 10: 3 Rec/49 yards

It appears that Brandin Cooks will be out again for week 11 and his status for future weeks with his concussion are up in the air. Meanwhile, Josh Reynolds stepped in last week as he did with Cooper Kupp’s injury last season as the team’s WR3 and had a so-so performance. He was, however, the second most targeted receiver (5) on the team. He’s not a flashy play like Brandin Cooks but looking at the raw numbers Reynolds produced about the same fantasy production as Cooks was before his injury. With the Rams not beating down on teams anymore and games against Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas and San Francisco remaining on the schedule, game scripted passing opportunities are going to be there for Reynolds and other Jared Goff targets.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

TE Add

Ryan Griffin, TE – NYJ (Owned 27%)

Week 10: 1 Rec/-2 yards

I know I recommended Griffin last week and he did absolutely nothing against the Giants but my prediction of Chris Herndon reinjuring himself came true so now Griffin is once again the clear TE1 for the Jets. He’s not a stud option at the position but opportunities and red zone possessions are the name of the game for streaming tight ends and without another real threat to his snaps that’s all fantasy players can ask for. An upcoming schedule of Washington, Oakland, Cincinnati, and Miami should allow the Jets to have plenty of scoring and red zone opportunities for Griffin to grab a touchdown or two and hopefully he can gain some yardage between the 20’s as well. If there are upcoming weeks that you don’t like your starting tight end’s matchup Griffin is another option to bring off the bench to pinch-hit.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<10%)

Chester Rogers, WR – IND (Owned 9%)

Week 10: 2 Rec/31 yards

T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell have already been ruled out but Jacoby Brissett looks to be returning for Week 11’s game against the Jaguars. That is an upgrade at the quarterback throwing the ball and the removal of potential target obstacles for Chester Rogers. As it stands only Zach Pascal is ahead of Rogers on the depth chart for wideouts but we know Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle will also be involved from the tight end position. Still, teams truly desperate for a WR4/5 this week could hope that Rogers gets around five or six targets and gets over 50 yards receiving. It could also be another week or two before Hilton returns so one could roll the dice again next week against Houston if needed.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

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2018 Positive Regression Candidates

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: May 20th 2018

My last article focused on some players due for decreased fantasy scoring next season because of factors outside their control. For all the players on the lucky there are those on the opposite end of the spectrum. This piece takes a look at a handful of players who saw their fantasy scoring dip below what their play warranted last year and due for better success this year.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan is one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL thanks to top-notch accuracy which rates high year after year. That play continued in 2017 as Ryan finished top-8 in completion percentage and yards per attempt. He also is one the most durable quarterbacks missing only 2 games in his career. The main problem for Ryan last season was a lack of work. His pass attempt total was the lowest since his second year in the league which contributed to low yardage and touchdown totals. His 4,095 passing yards were more than 400 less than any of his past five seasons. His 20 touchdowns also made the lowest total since his rookie season and he produced the lowest touchdown rate of anyone close to his efficiency last season.

Ryan’s 2017 fantasy season did not mirror his level of play as a top-10 quarterback. Take advantage. He consistently generated borderline QB1 fantasy seasons through much of his career which matches with his on-field performance. I expect that trend to continue in 2018.

Marcus Mariota

It was an extremely rough 2017 for the Tennessee quarterback. The former 2^nd overall pick had his worst season as pro seeing a sizeable drop in efficiency. His touchdown to interception ratio (13:15) also bottomed out. That ratio should increase back to standards closer in line with his first two seasons as his play did not truly change that drastically. One mark for Mariota (or against depending on how you look at it) is his very steady, albeit middling, production during his career. Mariota’s per game completion percentage, rushing and passing volume, rushing and passing yardage have all remained remarkably consistent throughout his three years as a pro. He has unfortunately been cursed with injury issues missing games in each season.

Mariota is due for better touchdown luck next season but he is more a mid-floor, low upside option at this stage in his career. There may be theoretical upside, particularly in the rushing department, with a new coaching staff depending on his always questionable health. Count on him as a solid fantasy QB2.

Running Backs

Jay Ajayi

Ajayi struggled thru a dismal offensive situation in Miami before being traded to the Eagles where he flourished. He ended the season with only two touchdowns on 232 touches. LeGarrette Blount is out of town leaving Ajayi as the lead back with no back of consequence added to the roster. Philadelphia possessed one of most unbalanced scoring lines in the league last year passing for 38 touchdowns while rushing for only nine. Expect that ratio to be more balanced in 2018 with Ajayi as the main beneficiary. The offense should be solid with one of the best offensive lines in the league.

Ajayi is a risky play given Philadelphia’s proclivity for backfield committees but one with a lot of upside in a good situation. He is a high-variance borderline RB2/RB3.

Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon’s rookie season most certainly did not go as planned. Cincinnati’s offensive line self-destructed after letting its two best members walk in free agency contributing to Mixon’s sub-par 3.5 yards per carry and only four touchdowns. Mixon also garnered only limited use in the passing game, one of his strongest traits coming out of college, catching 30 of 34 targets. The situation improved drastically in the offseason. Cincinnati significantly upgraded the o-line, trading for an upgrade at tackle and drafting a cornerstone center with their first round rookie pick. Tyler Eifert also adds another dynamic piece to the Bengals’ offense if he can stay somewhat healthy for a season.

There is a cap on Mixon with a quality back like Gio Bernard receiving significant work so do not expect elite level production. This offense has the pieces to take a step forward which puts Mixon firmly in the RB2 mix. Mixon’s receiving talents give him incredible upside if he assumes a dominant role in the backfield.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans

Evans is the poster-child for variability in touchdown scoring from year to year. He has four consecutive 1,000 yard receiving seasons but his touchdowns have travelled all over the map scoring 12, 3, 12, and 5 touchdowns over his four years. Evans has a huge 6’-5” frame which lends itself to massive touchdown upside every year. The problem is the factors outside of Evans control including the inconsistency of quarterback Jameis Winston’s play. Look for luck to swing the other direction in 2018 after only five scores in 2017.

Evans ranks high as one the young target hogs with no season in the NFL less than 124 targets. His volume and touchdown upside put him squarely in the WR1 crowd. You may be able to buy Evans at a discount after a perceived down year campaign similar to after 2015 where he also had a low touchdown total.

Julio Jones

Jones rates as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL by almost any measure. He is the all-time leader in yards per game and has accumulated at least 1400 yards, 129 targets, and 83 receptions each of the last four seasons ranking no less than 3^rd in receiving yards every year during that time. Jones was another victim in 2017 of the coin-flip that is touchdowns. The Falcons number one wide receiver has never been a huge touchdown scorer in the Atlanta offense but last year’s total of 3 is an extreme outlier for Jones that correlated with quarterback Matt Ryan’s down touchdown year.

There is not much doubt about the fantastic Atlanta wide receiver. Jones possesses huge big play ability and a massive reception ceiling making him one of the very few receivers able to challenge for the top fantasy wide receiver without depending on a big touchdown year. Lock him in as a top-five wide receiver.

Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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NFL Trade Deadline Moves

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: November 2nd 2017

The NFL trade deadline usually produces as much excitement as eating tuna fish out of the can for lunch. Early trade deadline date, hard salary cap, and rules curbing trades for cap space tend to limit the amount and scale of trades which occur. This year saw the most action on the trade front in years. I take a look at some of the most fantasy relevant trades that potentially impact your RSO teams.

Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia receives RB Jay Ajayi

Miami receives 2018 4th Round Draft Pick

Miami head coach Adam Gase clearly was not happy with the offensive performance of the Dolphins this season giving an epic post-game tirade following the 40-0 beat down against Baltimore. The shakeup starts with Miami moving Ajayi to Philadelphia. What does Philadelphia get with AJayi? They obtain a player who forced more missed tackles over the last two seasons than any other running back in the NFL. It is a low-risk move for a player on a cheap 5^th round rookie contract that runs through the 2018 season giving up only a likely late fourth round pick. The move is somewhat odd in that Ajayi joins a crowded backfield including LeGarrette Blount (who is quietly having a very productive season), Wendell Smallwood, and Corey Clement on a team which has never really featured a running back under head coach Doug Pederson instead relying on a committee approach.

What does this mean for Ajayi? The third year pro’s situation improves drastically moving from the lowest scoring team in the league with one of the worst offensive lines to one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL with the best record so far. Philadelphia Ajayi’s role this season seems questionable given the depth in the backfield and lack of traditional “workhorse” role on the Eagles but the upside is tremendous on a high-powered offense if he were to assume a primary role. His longer-term prospects look good on a solid team led by an ascending quarterback. This move correspondingly reduces Blount’s value to minimal at best.

Also remember Ajayi’s likely replacements in Miami, Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake. While neither is a priority in shallow leagues on this low-scoring offense, any potential starting running back has some value in deeper RSO leagues.

Jimmy Garoppolo

San Francisco receives QB Jimmy Garoppolo

New England receives 2018 2nd Round Draft Pick

In another interesting trade, San Francisco presumably gets their quarterback of the future in exchange for an early second round pick. The move gives San Francisco a lot of flexibility in next year’s draft, including potentially setting up the 49ers to receive a ransom in draft capital in exchange for one of the top picks in the first round. New England receives one of the most valuable picks in the entire draft on a cost-benefit basis with the high second pick. One must wonder if New England maximized Garoppolo’s trade value if earlier reports from this offseason were true about teams making first round-plus offers but it is still solid value for a player of no immediate use on an expiring contract. The Patriots are clearly committed to Brady for the near future with no backup plan for the future.

Garoppolo was originally a second round pick by New England and has performed superbly in his professional appearances so far, albeit in a very limited sample size. He goes to a team with one of the most highly-thought-of offensive minds in the game, Kyle Shanahan, leading them. The trade also imparts risk on Garoppolo though. He almost certainly would have received a large contract this offseason based on very limited work in the NFL. Garoppolo might receive substantially less from San Francisco or in free agency if his performance in the last portion of the season does not meet expectations. This is a move that could go very poorly for the 49ers. San Francisco gave up a premium draft pick on a team going nowhere this year for a player in the final year of his contract. This move potentially looks very foolish in the offseason if the 49ers a) do not sign Garoppolo or b) are forced to franchise tag him at high costs (see the ongoing Kirk Cousins saga).

Garoppolo holds little value in RSO leagues this season with a difficult schedule to finish the season and likely not assuming starting duties until after San Francisco’s bye in week 12.

Kelvin Benjamin

Buffalo receives WR Kelvin Benjamin

Carolina receives 2018 3rd Round Draft Pick and 2018 7th Round Draft Pick

It has been one strange season for the Buffalo Bills. In what many considered a rebuilding year, the Bills find themselves at 5-2 just behind the New England Patriots for first place in the AFC East. The roster makeover at wide receiver continues with the addition of Benjamin after Buffalo traded for WR Jordan Matthews in the preseason and trading away former 1^st round WR Sammy Watkins prior to that.

This is not a good move fantasy-wise for the hulking receiver this season. Benjamin goes from a team with the 10^th most passing attempts to the one with least attempts in the entire NFL. Even the most targeted wide receiver in Buffalo has little fantasy value on a run-first offense. What value there is in the passing game is centered on the running backs and tight ends where running back LeSean McCoy leads the team in targets and receptions almost doubling the next leading receiver, tight end Charles Clay, who has been out of action for weeks. Jordan Matthews’ limited fantasy value is gone in all but the deepest of leagues with the arrival of Benjamin. Charles Clay gets bumped down. Tyrod Taylor is likely the only fantasy relevant player helped with this trade.

Duane Brown

Seattle receives OT Duane Brown and 2018 5th Round Draft Pick

Houston receives 2018 3rd Round Draft Pick and 2019 2nd Round Draft Pick*

Seattle bolsters their offensive line with left tackle Duane Brown after seeing him first-hand this past weekend. Brown is a massive upgrade at left tackle for the Seahawks, replacing PFF’s worst graded tackle on one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The move tremendously helps Russell Wilson and also potentially upgrades the Seattle run game. Quality, blind-side tackles rarely become available because there are so few in the league. The steep price could be well worth the cost to Seattle if they address Brown’s contract issues.

Brown’s contract demands, for which he sat out the first six weeks in the season and were never addressed by the Texans, and his resentment toward Houston’s owner eventually led to the trade. The Texans received fair value for a player who clearly was not excited about staying in Houston. The loss of a premium left tackle will be felt, especially by a developing young quarterback, but is somewhat mitigated Deshaun Watson’s mobility out of the pocket.

*Note this trade originally included CB Jeremy Lane who reportedly failed a physical.

A.J. McCarron

In a trade that failed to go through, the Cincinnati Bengals agreed to trade A.J. McCarron to the Cleveland Browns. Unfortunately the Browns, as only the Browns could do, failed in reporting the trade to the NFL office by the trade deadline. McCarron is left as a backup in Cincinnati and Cleveland continues to make even the most basic NFL mechanisms look difficult.

Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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