Inaugural High Stakes League update 2

Updated: October 4th 2021

You are. <Looks directly at you>

I am. <Grabs chalice>

We are. <Steps on to balcony>

You are.

<Spins around with chalice in hand and points out to the crowd>

I am.

<Puffs cigar>

WE ARE…..

<Raises hands in the air and signals to the crowd>

…allll fantasy football experts.   Yeah!

Thanks for joining me for another update.  If you missed the first one, you can check it out here.

As I’m just now getting to these updates after the league has been in existence for over a year now, we have some catching up to do.  Last week’s update got you into my head and my thoughts to understand what brought me to the Inaugural High Stakes League.  If I had to shorten those reasons into a few hashtags it would probably look like this: #Confidence #Competition #Professional #Timing

So, now I’m in.  Time to see what kind of competition I was up against.  To the Google!

Hmmm…A couple names on a split team that do some fantasy football expertise writing on a website.  Ok.  This is what I expected.

No more writers though after that.  Huh.

Well, this is interesting.  Looks like we have an actual ice cream tycoon up in here.  Going to put that one in my back pocket and see if I can finagle a lifetime supply of chocolate chip cookie dough at some point…

Beyond that?  No, I really don’t see a lot of credentials.  One of my fellow owners mentioned that he was in roughly 50 leagues though.  Yes.  These are my people.  This is where I belong.  I was really only left wondering why I’m not in 50 leagues either.

Overall, I couldn’t be more pleased with this group of competitors.  They are simultaneously no better than me (In my very very humble opinion) while enlightening me with a few new strategies here and there that I’m happy to have picked up on and plan to utilize in all leagues moving forward.  So I ask you, did I pay just to join a high stakes league?  Or, have I possibly paid for something more?

Ok, ok.  So, how did season one go?  Well, long story short, I’m here writing to you because I went 13-0, won the Super Bowl, and was declared the greatest of all time by the rest of my league.  Then, it just made sense to have me do the write ups also.  And if you believe that, I have some Edwards-Helaire stock to sell you.

Look, I have some season one regrets.  I tend to play in leagues that have escalating scoring systems where elite players can pop off for insane points.  This makes spending elite money on them worthwhile.  This league has a standard system that reward those yards gained the same whether you’re at 40 for the day or 175.  As such, my year one approach yielded a scary looking starting lineup that lacked depth.  Week one I was near the top of league scoring and 1-0.

By the end of week three I had lost Kittle, Davante Adams, and Michael Thomas.  I dropped to 1-5 in the league.  Heartbreak.  What else is left to do but start planning for the future?  So, I traded away MT for some draft picks and saved a ton of future cap space.  A key move that would put me in good position for the ’21 season.   A trade that was so good that, for better or worse, put me back on a winning streak.  This is really my style.  Who wants a #1 pick anyways?  Certainly not me.  No, I prefer to miss the playoffs and end up with the 4th or 5th pick.  My team, “These Truth’s to be Self Richard Dent,” went 6-7 in season one.  So, enough about my squad who couldn’t break down that playoff wall.  What good is being in a High Stakes League if they don’t talk about you when you win?

The website contributing writers made the playoffs.  The guy who plays in 50 leagues made the playoffs.  Neither was our season one champion.

A team that goes by the name Philadelphia Freeways took the season one title.  If I would describe their approach it would be the exact opposite of mine.  They stayed away from spending elite money but had the best depth.  In a year when we dealt with Covid-19 and players missing more time than usual, this was the best approach and it’s no surprise this team came out on top.  Each year will present different opportunities for roster construction and where to best spend your money and one of the highlights of competing on the RSO platform is seeing and managing these opportunities no different than Bill Belichick might try to do.  Obviously, some years we will be more successful than others.  Just ask Bill.

So, a big Congratulations to Philadelphia Freeways.  Champion of the inaugural season of the Inaugural High Stakes League.

Are you excited about the next official RSO High Stakes League yet?  You should be.  Details are in the works as we speak.

I’m also happy to announce that I will have a discount code for you once RSO opens up for the ’22 season.

The deal is good for everyone except CARL!

Please give me a Twitter follow @RSOHighStakes for more fun league highlights and more details on your future discount.  See you next time.


Matt Russell
High Stakes League Storyteller

More Analysis by Matt Russell

2018 Rookie RSO Extension Candidates

Updated: September 26th 2021

The 2018 NFL rookie class plays the final year of four-year contracts in the NFL and most Reality Sports Online leagues this season.  These players represent extension candidates (among others on the final year of their RSO contracts) for RSO managers which utilize the extension option in their leagues.  This article examines the 2018 rookie class as to suitability for RSO extensions.  It also provides a useful starting place in evaluating trade targets based on extension possibilities.  Draft information comes from DLF Post-Draft Superflex ADP data.   Actual draft position may vary greatly between leagues.

Round 1

The tables below show players with overall and positional ADP, projected positional contract price, and recommendations on whether to extend the player.  The decision to extend really breaks down to if you believe the extension contract is cheaper than the market auction price or value for the player.  The below are general recommendations for extensions as there are a large number of factors to consider including league size, projected salary cap space in the league, the estimated free agent pool, and your own cap/roster situation among many others.   We should also note the NFL salary cap (and with it the RSO cap) is set to explode after the diminished cap effects of the COVID-reduced cap in 2020 are finished working their way through the NFL cap to go along with an eventual revenue boost from the new NFL television deal.  This, in general, makes gambles on extension contracts more palatable.  Many leagues also use the Reality Sports Online rookie option for 1st round draft picks adding an additional year to the contract which would eliminate the 2018 rookies drafted in the first round of your leagues from extension consideration if the GM exercised the option.

There is an extremely limited supply of running backs with the potential touch volume in the rushing and passing game as Barkley.  Coming off an ACL tear with diminished early performance might present lower extension prices and a unique opportunity to take advantage.  Chubb might be the best pure rusher in the NFL.   He’s a solid back-end RB1 but without an elite-level range of outcomes due to his quarterback for the NFL or fantasy football, stuck in the middle.  Mayfield and Darnold are quarterbacks stuck as QB2s in fantasy.  Neither is among the best passers in the NFL nor possesses much rushing upside.  This implies a limited fantasy ceiling that you will likely be able to obtain for less than the probable extension price.  On the other end, Jackson displayed league-winning upside already and a rock-solid borderline QB1 floor with over 1,000 rushing yards each of the last two seasons as a starting quarterback.  The price will be high but worth it in the right fantasy leagues.  Moore possesses all the traits you look for when signing a wide receiver to a long-term contract.  He put up quality production dating back to college with sub-par quarterback play, wins in a variety of ways on multiple levels of the field, and is an excellent athlete to boot.  He might not rack up elite numbers but is a young foundation piece, particularly in deeper leagues, who probably has not hit his prime yet.

Round 2

Ridley is among the best route runners at the wide receiver position and another receiver productive since he entered the NFL.  The only question is whether his extension price will be nearer the elite echelon rather than just an upper-level price.  Kirk and Gallup represent speculative low-cost extensions for players who flashed for decent portions of their rookie contracts and probably will be with new teams next season.  The reasons for extending Sutton mirror that of Moore.  Sutton is a prototype dominant X receiver with quality production despite awful quarterback play.  I was hoping a slow start coming off his ACL-tear last year would drive down his price but that might not happen now with Jeudy out.  Allen locked up a massive extension coming off a MVP-type 2020 season.  I don’t think it is reasonable to expect that type of production going forward but his rushing skills and massive arm give him one of the highest weekly ceilings among quarterbacks.  The extension price might push into the very top of the position which could make for a difficult decision.  Gesicki flashed at times but has not developed his route-running to consistently beat good coverage despite his athletic gifts and has shown to be more of a situational matchup player in the NFL.  Those aren’t the type of tight ends that typically get the playing time and target load necessary to produce consistent fantasy points.

Round 3

We might consider Hines a specialty extension candidate as a passing game specialist whose role doesn’t change much no matter if the lead is injured.  Indianapolis just extended him so there is some security.  Consider extending Hines in deeper leagues.  Everyone waits for the Eagles to finally move on from Ertz and give Goedert the opportunity he deserves as a top-6 PFF tight end each of his first three seasons.  He could get that chance during his second contract but it might now be for a different team as the Eagles somehow have not extended him.    Many people mistakenly thought Chark could morph into a potentially high target receiver after a breakout 2019 season propped up by a limited receiver room and an easy schedule.  The reality is his skills translate better as a complimentary deep receiving option for an NFL team.  The extension price will likely be too high for RSO GMs wanting to take a gamble on him.  While Andrews projects at the higher end of extension contracts for tight ends, it probably won’t be at the very top.  He just signed a massive contract extension in Baltimore and is one of the only proven receiving weapons for the Ravens.  The Baltimore offense caps the ceiling for Andrews but he is still one of the few tight ends who likely averages 5-6 targets a game.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Inaugural RSO High Stakes League update 1

Updated: September 23rd 2021

If you read any of the email updates from Stephen at RSO, you probably remember him talking about the desire to start a High Stakes League on the RSO platform.  I remember because I considered it but, perhaps not as strongly as some people.  It seemed awesome but finances – can I afford it?  And what level am I really?  You’ll understand soon enough I’ve never lacked confidence in anything I do but jumping up to the next level, whatever that may be in fantasy football, is a decision that takes some readiness.  Especially depending on where your finances are and mine were not quite there just yet.  A friend of mine that introduced me to the RSO platform in 2014 was considering joining though, probably a bit more strongly than I.  He expressed interest to RSO so that he could receive the email updates as the league tried to form which would put him in position to join if he ultimately felt comfortable.  This was great because he still shared the info with me as it came available.

Fast forward to August 2020.  The Inaugural RSO High Stakes League is close to being full but they still need one more team filled.  Stephen mentions in another RSO email update that the league is still looking for that last owner but Stephen himself may need to fill that role if they don’t find one, as a backup plan.  Regardless, the league is a go.  It’s happening and getting off the ground finally in this crazy 2020 that we went through.  Well, it just so happens that I got paid a couple days earlier.  I rehabilitate homes and sell them so my paydays come in chunks.  Very large chunks.  Usually only once per year.  So, I’ll be damned if the timing wasn’t lining up perfectly.  I reached out to my buddy to see if he joined.  He says no.  He’s going to watch and see how it goes first.  Gah!  What to do.  Well, I emailed Stephen and tell him the timing is right.  I’m considering it.  Just had a few more questions.

Then the internal thoughts.  $2k is a lot of money even though I have it right now but I’m no ice cream tycoon.  Considering RSO is more of a Dynasty format, you can’t just consider one season of costs either.  You have to consider whether you can put out this kind of money every year.  So, $2k every year indefinitely?  That’s a hard pill to swallow.  Look, I’ve been running fantasy football leagues for 20 years.  Part of running a league is recruiting when you have a spot to fill.  Quite frankly, in my opinion, if you want a fun league you want good players and people who have confidence.  If I had a nickel for every time I’ve told a person that it only costs you money if you don’t win, I’d be a tycoon of some sort, I assure you.  So, let’s just say I answered that concern myself.  Now, the confidence in my ability.  I’d been seeking, for a while, a challenge on the highest level.  Can one be a fantasy football professional?  Like, in Texas Hold ‘Em?  What about sponsored?  How do we know who the best are in this world?  There’s not many clear or easy answers to these questions and high stakes leagues, for now, seem to be the closest we can get to the highest level of fantasy football competition.  The fact that RSO has made this league official and put it on a pedestal with some promotion definitely gives it a feel of professionalism, from my point of view.  For me, something like this is what I had been seeking.  A chance to prove I could hang with the big dogs.  I decided to go for it.  Besides, how much more than me could these clowns know anyways?

Why is my first update about my decision to join?  Because RSO has big plans for more leagues like this and I think some of my thoughts are probably similar to many of yours out there.  I know you have the confidence.  You aren’t any different than I am.  An average guy who loves football, fantasy football, and the Chicago Bears (What?  Everyone doesn’t love the Bears?  I don’t believe you).  Now it’s time to step up your game and see if you have what it takes to compete on the next level.  Stay tuned for more information about future official RSO high stakes leagues.

Now that I’ve called the other owners clowns and promoted my own confidence on hanging with the big dogs you must be curious if I was the Champ of season one.  Well…..let’s just save the season one outcome for my next update.  I hope you’ll check it out.  See you next time.


Matt Russell

RSO High Stakes League storyteller

More Analysis by Matt Russell

RSO Roster Construction: Player Tier Variation

Updated: August 26th 2021

The question of optimal roster construction remains a mystery to many in RSO leagues.  How much should I allocate to different position groups?  How is the allocation distributed within each position?  How much should go to projected starters versus backups?  There exists practically near-limitless player combinations available to RSO teams and we can’t hope to cover any reasonable fraction of those.  This article gives a few examples of what various rosters can look like based on allocation of salary cap to different tiers of players.  The article utilizes average salary data taken from 2021 RSO startup auctions in order to construct 20-player rosters fitting near the RSO salary cap limits.  I assume 1QB/1SF/2RB/2WR and 1 or 2 flex spots in the starting lineup for this exercise.   I also allocated the same number of roster spots at each position for all rosters as a consistency measure.

The goal of this article is not to recommend individual players or even which type of roster construction is best.  League settings and conditions will have a big impact on the type of roster you desire on auction day.  The article does provide a starting point in evaluating different types of roster builds and the sort of trade-offs one must take into account when choosing how your team is constructed by examining a few rosters with differing cap distributions among players.

Top-Tier Heavy Roster

This roster pays a premium for the top contracts at each position.  The top-4 players combined for about 60% of the salary cap.  Interestingly, that number is significantly down from 2020.  This top-4 contracts would have cost about 75% of a team’s total salary last season.  These top-tier players show the most certainty in production which means this roster construction profile puts most of the cap dollars in highly reliable players.  The hope for this type of team resides in exploiting the consistent week-winning upside of the high priced players while getting just enough production from lower priced players.  The team has potential for extremely high weekly production in shallow leagues if it gets lucky and hits on one or two low-priced, low-probability players while avoiding injury.  The depth at wide receiver is a major plus for this strategy as low-priced viable options and young upside players exist throughout the lower price spectrum to fill a roster.  That strategy gets murkier as the number of required starters increases when more “hits” on questionable players are needed to produce a winning lineup.

The main issue with a team constructed this way is that many roster spots are filled with minimum salary and other low-cost players with very small odds of significant fantasy production.  There is little chance of seeing much value increases from these players.  Most trades will necessarily involve moving one of the prized star players to help alleviate any team deficiencies.  Any injury or underperformance of your star players is also a major issue for a team like this as there simply isn’t going to be a viable replacement in most cases.

Starter Heavy Roster

This roster variation divests cap dollars away from the very top-tier players to a degree.  Most of our salary is still allocated to the starters but is more evenly divided among them.  We can see that secondary starters see significant potential upgrades over the previous top-tier heavy roster and this roster type ensures a premium starter at the “start two” positions even in the case of injury.  The main question for teams utilizing this strategy is how they view the secondary starters.  The move away from the top-paid players may well be worth the cost if an owner sees potential top-tier production in the next tier of players.  There is also a depth cost to be paid with this build as the difference in price from top-tier downward is not as drastic as last season.

Balanced Roster

This distribution notably puts more cap dollars in potential flex starters and bench players.  The power of the middle-tier running backs this season, in particular, is highlighted.  Typically the “avoid zone” for running backs, the infusion of young running backs at the position recently allows for more flexibility in roster construction.  The flatter cap distribution approach displays two primary benefits.  First, the roster offers enhanced injury mitigation.  Unavailability of even the best players on this roster will potentially have a more diminished effect.  The statistical projections between players are less as the salary gap narrows.  There is a certain amount of “plug and play” replacement aspect here.  An RSO GM should feel fairly good about the weekly starting lineup, even on bye weeks.  Second, this type of roster construction acknowledges the inherent randomness in statistical production.  New coaching, surrounding personnel, schemes, schedules, etc. have major impacts on the fantasy performance of players.  Dividing money to more players allows additional chances on players with reasonable chances of significantly out-producing respective salaries.   There exists a good chance one of the backups produces at starter-quality as a replacement for an underperforming projected starter.

The downside to this build is a team will usually not have the potential weekly upside using this roster methodology compared to more concentrated distributions.  Even when many of the questionable players exceed expectations, they are unlikely to achieve truly top-tier production levels and many may not make your starting lineup.  This becomes less of a concern as in deeper leagues as more of the “hits” can be utilized on a weekly basis.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

2021 RSO Contracts: TEs

Updated: August 16th 2021

My annual look at RSO auction values moves to tight ends.  The series was designed to give the reader help in planning for upcoming auctions by looking at actual RSO auctions already finished this year.  The data comes from a variety of different types of leagues with varying scoring rules and starting requirements which can drastically alter player values so be cautious in expecting values to match your particular league.  The information does provide a useful starting point for examining how RSO owners value players at a certain position relative to one another and the length of contract they are willing to invest.  Provided fantasy stats and rankings utilize per game PPR scoring.

Average RSO Tight End Contracts

Top Tier Contracts

It’s extremely difficult making a realistic argument against Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce as the top fantasy option at the position.  He finished as the fantasy TE1 each of the last FIVE seasons and is getting better, averaging over 100 receptions and 1,300 yards during the last three years.  Those are numbers a fantasy player would salivate over from their top wide receiver.  His situation with Mahomes projects as the top situation for fantasy.  The only minor question for Kelce is whether age (nearing 32) eventually takes a toll on his performance.  Pitts is the culmination of a dominating college player and athletic phenom taken as the highest-drafted tight end ever.  Rookie fantasy production is historically a horror story at tight end for even the best prospects but he won’t play much inline as one of the most skilled receiving talents ever drafted for the position.  Kittle ranked as PFF’s top tight end in 2018 and 2019 while still ranking fourth in an injury-riddled 2020.  The 49er star produces high efficiency receiving yardage thanks, in part, to being one of best at accumulating yards after the catch and scored 15 points per game each of the last three years finishing as the TE3 or better each season.  Waller produced another huge year after his breakout 2019 season.  The former college wide receiver particularly dominated the last seven games averaging almost 8 receptions and 110 yards per game.  The field could open up even more for Waller if second year receivers Ruggs and Edwards expand their games.

The Middle

Andrews finished as a top-five tight end the last two seasons thanks largely to seven and ten touchdown years.  The Ravens significantly upgraded the nearly non-existent wide receiver core through free agency (Watkins) and the draft (Bateman).  Baltimore’s Jackson-led, run-heavy offense limits the target potential and ceiling for the pass catching tight end.  Hockenson made a big second year leap essentially doubling his rookie year receiving totals.  A bare receiving group on a rebuilding Lions team with a quarterback in Goff who prefers short and intermediate throws open up immense target potential for the third year player.  Most people assumed Ertz would be gone from Philadelphia leaving the tight end position to Goedert and a potential fantasy breakout.  The fourth year pro graded as a top-10 tight end each of his first three seasons per PFF.  Ertz is surprisingly still on the Eagles making any breakout suspect as of now on a team with questionable quarterback play.

Take your Chances

Most of the players for the rest of this article could easily find themselves in the mid TE1 range all the way down to the lower TE2 group.  The difference from TE5 to TE25 was less than four points per game.  Prepare for weekly matchup plays if going with a few guys from this group.  The athletic Gesicki finished with career bests in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns.  Miami massively upgraded the wide receiver group with Fuller and Waddle while also using mid-range draft capital on another tight end leaving Gesicki’s role unknown moving forward.  Thomas benefitted from a dangerously thin wide receiver group in Washington with very risk-averse quarterback play for 110 targets in 2020.  Thomas barely averaged six yards per target and Washington also significantly upgraded the wide receiver group which dampens his expectations going forward.  Tonyan is the poster-child for touchdown regression after a ludicrous 11 touchdowns on just 59 targets for the TE5 finish.

There are a lot of moving parts in New England with completely different offensive philosophies depending on the quarterback.  Does Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith carve out significant fantasy roles on a team without much in established wide receivers?  How much of a role can Irv Smith take on a run-heavy Minnesota team with two established quality wide receivers, even if he earns the third receiving option?  Engram projects for a smaller portion of the pass game with the Giants signing Kenny Golladay in free agency as the primary receiving option for a team with questionable quarterback play.  The Rams let Gerald Everett go in free agency and get an upgrade at quarterback with Matt Stafford opening up more possibilities for Higbee in the passing game.  Does Ertz remain in Philadelphia on a team with lots of questions at wide receiver and quarterback after a disastrous 2020?  Trautman has a golden opportunity to establish himself as a difference-making tight end on a team that let Jared Cook go and, with Michael Thomas out for at least a significant portion of the season, no established wide receivers.

Cleveland paid Hooper a lot of money in free agency last season but he finds himself in a run-heavy offense with lots of other dynamic receiving weapons and a deep tight end group.   Tampa Bay possesses perhaps the best receiving group in the NFL which puts future hall of famer Gronkowski squarely in the weekly upside touchdown-dependent streaming camp.  There is a chance for Kmet as a significant receiving option in Chicago.  Hurst finished as a mid-range TE2 last season on a team that essentially swaps Julio Jones for rookie Kyle Pitts with a new coach who utilized two-tight end formations at the highest rate in the NFL for Tennessee last year.  Everett played well in Los Angeles but didn’t get the chance for fantasy production with another good tight end.  The dynamic former second-round pick gets a quarterback upgrade and a shot as the clear third receiving option in Seattle.  Cook consistently puts up more yards than your average weekly matchup play thanks to his unusual deep threat ability at tight end where he posted at least 11.9 yards per reception each season after his rookie year.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

 

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Big 3 IDP Offensive Player Rankings & Contract Recommendations

Updated: August 9th 2021

Rank Name Pos Rank Team Age Contract Length Rec Max Contract Cap per Year DOB
001 Christian McCaffrey RB001 Carolina Panthers 25.2 4 $140,000,000.00 $35,000,000 06/07/1996
002 Jonathan Taylor RB002 Indianapolis Colts 22.6 4 $125,000,000.00 $31,250,000 01/19/1999
003 Saquon Barkley RB003 New York Giants 24.5 4 $ 125,000,000.00 $31,250,000 02/09/1997
004 A.J. Brown WR001 Tennessee Titans 24.1 4 $120,000,000.00 $30,000,000 06/30/1997
005 Justin Jefferson WR002 Minnesota Vikings 22.2 4 $120,000,000.00 $30,000,000 06/16/1999
006 Ceedee Lamb WR003 Dallas Cowboys 22.4 4 $ 117,500,000.00 $ 29,375,000 04/08/1999
007 D’Andre Swift RB004 Detroit Lions 22.6 4 $115,000,000.00 $28,750,000 01/14/1999
008 D.K. Metcalf WR006 Seattle Seahawks 23.7 4 $115,000,000.00 $28,750,000 12/14/1997
009 Tyreek Hill WR004 Kansas City Chiefs 27.5 3 $100,000,000.00 $ 33,333,333 03/01/1994
010 Alvin Kamara RB005 New Orleans Saints 26.1 3 $100,000,000.00 $ 33,333,333 07/25/1995
011 Stefon Diggs WR005 Buffalo Bills 27.7 3 $ 90,000,000.00 $30,000,000 11/29/1993
012 Dalvin Cook RB006 Minnesota Vikings 26.0 3 $ 85,000,000.00 $ 28,333,333 08/10/1995
013 Jamarr Chase WR007 Cincinnati Bengals 21.5 4 $110,000,000.00 $27,500,000 03/01/2000
014 Jerry Juedy WR008 Denver Broncos 22.3 4 $105,000,000.00 $26,250,000 04/24/1999
015 Kyle Pitts TE001 Atlanta Falcons 20.9 4 $105,000,000.00 $26,250,000 10/06/2000
022 Patrick Mahomes QB001 Kansas City Chiefs 25.9 4 $100,000,000.00 $25,000,000 09/17/1995
016 Laviska Shenault WR009 Jacksonville Jaguars 22.9 4 $100,000,000.00 $25,000,000 10/05/1998
017 Najee Harris RB007 Pittsburgh Steelers 23.4 4 $100,000,000.00 $25,000,000 03/09/1998
018 Calvin Ridley WR010 Atlanta Falcons 26.7 4 $ 90,000,000.00 $22,500,000 12/20/1994
019 Antonio Gibson RB008 Washington Redskins 23.1 4 $ 80,000,000.00 $20,000,000 06/23/1998
020 Tee Higgins WR011 Cincinnati Bengals 22.6 4 $ 70,000,000.00 $ 17,500,000 01/18/1999
021 Travis Kelce TE002 Kansas City Chiefs 31.9 3 $ 93,000,000.00 $31,000,000 10/5/1989
023 DJ Moore WR012 Carolina Panthers 24.3 4 $ 90,000,000.00 $22,500,000 04/14/1997
024 Derrick Henry RB009 Tennessee Titans 27.6 3 $ 90,000,000.00 $30,000,000 01/04/1994
025 J.K. Dobbins RB010 Baltimore Ravens 22.7 4 $ 75,000,000.00 $ 18,750,000 12/17/1998
026 Nick Chubb RB011 Cleveland Browns 25.6 3 $ 85,000,000.00 $ 28,333,333 12/27/1995
027 Austin Ekeler RB012 Los Angeles Chargers 26.2 3 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 21,666,667 05/17/1995
028 Clyde Edwards Helaire RB013 Kansas City Chiefs 22.3 4 $ 74,000,000.00 $18,500,000 04/11/1999
029 Davante Adams WR013 Green Bay Packers 28.6 3 $ 90,000,000.00 $30,000,000 12/24/1992
030 Darren Waller TE003 Las Vegas Raiders 28.9 4 $110,000,000.00 $27,500,000 09/13/1992
031 Joe Mixon RB014 Cincinnati Bengals 25.1 3 $ 60,000,000.00 $20,000,000 07/24/1996
032 Brandon Aiyuk WR014 San Francisco 49ers 23.4 4 $ 70,000,000.00 $ 17,500,000 03/17/1998
033 Chase Claypool WR015 Pittsburgh Steelers 23.1 4 $ 70,000,000.00 $ 17,500,000 07/07/1998
034 Ezekiel Elliott RB015 Dallas Cowboys 26.1 3 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 21,666,667 07/22/1995
035 Aaron Jones RB016 Green Bay Packers 26.7 3 $ 60,000,000.00 $20,000,000 12/02/1994
036 Chris Godwin WR016 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25.5 4 $ 70,000,000.00 $ 17,500,000 02/27/1996
037 Deandre Hopkins WR017 Arizona Cardinals 29.2 3 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 21,666,667 06/06/1992
038 Keenan Allen WR018 Los Angeles Chargers 29.3 3 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 21,666,667 04/27/1992
039 George Kittle TE004 San Francisco 49ers 27.9 4 $ 75,000,000.00 $ 18,750,000 10/09/1993
040 Michael Thomas WR019 New Orleans Saints 28.5 3 $ 60,000,000.00 $20,000,000 03/03/1993
041 Javonte Williams RB017 Denver Broncos 21.3 4 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 16,250,000 04/25/2000
042 Rashod Bateman WR020 Baltimore Ravens 21.7 4 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 16,250,000 11/29/1999
043 Terry McLaurin WR021 Washington FT 25.9 4 $ 70,000,000.00 $ 17,500,000 09/15/1995
044 Amari Cooper WR022 Dallas Cowboys 27.2 3 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 21,666,667 04/27/1992
045 Allen Robinson WR023 Chicago Bears 28.0 3 $ 60,000,000.00 $20,000,000 06/17/1994
046 Mike Evans WR024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28.0 3 $ 60,000,000.00 $20,000,000 8/24/1993
047 Diontae Johnson WR025 Pittsburgh Steelers 25.1 4 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 16,250,000 07/05/1996
048 David Montgomery RB018 Chicago Bears 24.2 4 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 16,250,000 06/07/1997
049 Travis Etienne RB019 Jacksonville Jaguars 22.6 4 $ 65,000,000.00 $ 16,250,000 01/26/1999
050 Kyler Murray QB002 Arizona Cardinals 24.0 4 $ 60,000,000.00 $15,000,000 08/07/1997
051 Lamar Jackson QB003 Baltimore Ravens 24.6 4 $ 60,000,000.00 $15,000,000 01/07/1997
052 Josh Allen QB004 Buffalo Bills 25.2 4 $ 60,000,000.00 $15,000,000 05/21/1996
053 Elijah Moore WR026 New York Jets 21.4 4 $ 59,000,000.00 $ 14,750,000 03/27/2000
054 Devonta Smith WR027 Philadelphia Eagles 22.8 4 $ 58,000,000.00 $ 14,500,000 11/14/1998
055 Josh Jacobs RB021 Las Vegas Raiders 23.5 4 $ 57,000,000.00 $ 14,250,000 02/11/1998
056 Justin Herbert QB005 Los Angeles Chargers 23.4 4 $ 55,000,000.00 $ 13,750,000 03/10/1998
057 Deebo Samuel WR028 San Francisco 49ers 25.6 4 $ 55,000,000.00 $ 13,750,000 01/15/1996
058 Courtland Sutton WR029 Denver Broncos 25.8 4 $ 55,000,000.00 $ 13,750,000 10/10/1995
059 Jaylen Waddle WR030 Miami Dolphons 22.7 4 $ 50,000,000.00 $ 12,500,000 11/25/1998
060 Mark Andrews TE005 Baltimore Ravens 24.9 4 $ 50,000,000.00 $ 12,500,000 09/06/1996
061 Henry Ruggs WR031 Las Vegas Raiders 22.6 4 $ 45,000,000.00 $ 11,250,000 01/24/1999
062 T.J. Hockenson TE006 Detroit Lions 24.1 4 $ 45,000,000.00 $ 11,250,000 07/03/1997
063 Trey Sermon RB020 San Francisco 49ers 22.5 4 $ 45,000,000.00 $ 11,250,000 01/30/1999
064 Rondale Moore WR032 Arizona Cardinals 21.2 4 $ 43,500,000.00 $ 10,875,000 06/09/2000
065 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR033 Pittsburgh Steelers 27.3 4 $ 43,000,000.00 $ 10,750,000 08/21/1993
066 Miles Sanders RB022 Philadelphia Eagles 24.3 3 $ 40,000,000.00 $ 13,333,333 05/01/1997
067 Trey Lance QB006 San Francisco 49ers 21.3 4 $ 43,000,000.00 $ 10,750,000 05/09/2000
068 Trevor Lawrence QB007 Jacksonville Jaguars 21.9 4 $ 43,000,000.00 $ 10,750,000 10/06/1999
069 Joe Burrow QB008 Cincinnati Bengals 24.7 4 $ 43,000,000.00 $ 10,750,000 12/10/1996
070 Marquise Brown WR034 Baltimore Ravens 24.2 4 $ 39,000,000.00 $ 9,750,000 06/04/1997
071 Michael Carter RB023 New York Jets 22.3 4 $ 38,000,000.00 $ 9,500,000 05/07/1999
072 Terrace Marshall Jr WR035 Carolina Panthers 21.2 4 $ 38,000,000.00 $ 9,500,000 06/09/2000
073 Kenny Golladay WR036 New York Giants 27.8 3 $ 40,000,000.00 $ 13,333,333 11/3/1993
074 Dak Prescott QB009 Dallas Cowboys 28.0 4 $ 38,000,000.00 $ 9,500,000 07/29/1993
075 Justin Fields QB010 Chicago Bears 22.4 4 $ 37,000,000.00 $ 9,250,000 03/05/1999
076 Deshaun Watson QB011 Houston Texans 25.9 4 $ 36,000,000.00 $ 9,000,000 09/14/1995
077 Chris Carson RB024 Seattle Seahawks 26.9 2 $ 34,000,000.00 $ 17,000,000 09/16/1994
078 Darrell Henderson RB025 Los Angeles Rams 24.0 1 $ 18,000,000.00 $ 18,000,000 08/19/1997
079 Van Jefferson WR037 Los Angeles Rams 25.1 4 $ 35,000,000.00 $ 8,750,000 07/26/1996
080 Darnell Mooney WR038 Chicago Bears 23.8 4 $ 34,000,000.00 $ 8,500,000 10/29/1997
081 DJ Chark WR039 Jacksonville Jaguars 24.9 3 $ 25,000,000.00 $ 8,333,333 09/23/1996
082 Tyler Boyd WR040 Cincinnati Bengals 26.8 3 $ 25,000,000.00 $ 8,333,333 11/15/1994
083 Julio Jones WR048 Tennessee Titans 32.5 2 $ 33,000,000.00 $ 16,500,000 02/08/1989
084 Tyler Lockett WR041 Seattle Seahawks 28.9 2 $ 30,000,000.00 $ 15,000,000 09/28/1992
085 Cooper Kupp WR042 Los Angeles Rams 28.2 2 $ 28,000,000.00 $ 14,000,000 06/15/1993
086 Odell Beckham Jr WR043 Cleveland Browns 28.8 2 $ 27,000,000.00 $ 13,500,000 11/05/1992
087 Michael Pittman Jr. WR044 Indianpolis Colts 23.9 4 $ 33,000,000.00 $ 8,250,000 10/05/1997
088 Robert Woods WR046 Los Angeles Rams 29.4 2 $ 27,000,000.00 $ 13,500,000 04/10/1992
089 Adam Thielen WR047 Minnesota Vikings 31.0 2 $ 26,000,000.00 $ 13,000,000 08/22/1990
090 Jalen Reagor WR045 Philadelphia Eagles 22.6 4 $ 32,000,000.00 $ 8,000,000 01/02/1999
091 Denzel Mims WR049 New York Jets 23.8 4 $ 30,000,000.00 $ 7,500,000 10/10/1997
092 Bryan Edwards WR050 Las Vegas Raiders 22.8 4 $ 30,000,000.00 $ 7,500,000 11/13/1998
093 Kadarius Toney WR051 New York Giants 22.5 4 $ 29,000,000.00 $ 7,250,000 01/27/1999
094 Amari Rodgers WR052 Green Bay Packers 21.9 4 $ 28,000,000.00 $ 7,000,000 09/23/1999
095 Dyami Brown WR053 Washington Football Team 21.8 4 $ 28,000,000.00 $ 7,000,000 11/1/1999
096 Matthew Stafford QB013 Los Angeles Rams 33.5 4 $ 28,000,000.00 $ 7,000,000 02/07/1988
097 Baker Mayfield QB012 Cleveland Browns 26.3 4 $ 24,000,000.00 $ 6,000,000 04/14/1995
098 Adam Trautman TE007 New Orleans Saints 24.5 4 $ 24,000,000.00 $ 6,000,000 2/5/1997
099 Cam Akers RB026 Los Angeles Rams 22.1 4 $ 24,000,000.00 $ 6,000,000 06/22/1999
100 Myles Gaskin RB027 Miami Dolphins 24.5 2 $ 20,000,000.00 $ 10,000,000 2/15/1997
101 Zach Wilson QB014 New York Jets 22.0 4 $ 24,000,000.00 $ 6,000,000 08/03/1999
102 Irv Smith Jr. TE008 Minnesota Vikings 23.0 4 $ 23,000,000.00 $ 5,750,000 08/09/1998
103 Michael Gallup WR054 Dallas Cowboys 25.4 4 $ 22,000,000.00 $ 5,500,000 03/04/1996
104 Will Fuller WR055 Miami Dolphins 27.3 2 $ 18,000,000.00 $ 9,000,000 04/16/1994
105 Kareem Hunt RB028 Cleveland Browns 26.0 2 $ 17,000,000.00 $ 8,500,000 08/06/1995
106 Tua Tagovailoa QB015 Miami Dolphins 23.5 4 $ 21,000,000.00 $ 5,250,000 03/02/1998
107 James Robinson RB029 Jacksonville Jaguars 24.7 2 $ 16,000,000.00 $ 8,000,000 11/22/1996
108 Mike Williams WR056 LA Chargers 26.9 3 $ 20,000,000.00 $ 6,666,667 10/04/1994
109 Corey Davis WR057 New York Jets 26.6 3 $ 20,000,000.00 $ 6,666,667 01/11/1995
110 Zack Moss RB030 Buffalo Bills 23.7 3 $ 18,000,000.00 $ 6,000,000 12/15/1997
111 Nico Collins WR058 Houston Texans 22.4 4 $ 20,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 03/19/1999
112 Ronald Jones RB031 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24.0 3 $ 15,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 08/03/1997
113 Damien Harris RB032 New England Patriots 24.5 3 $ 15,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 2/11/1997
114 Amon Ra St Brown WR059 Detroit Lions 21.8 4 $ 20,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 10/24/1999
115 Josh Palmer WR060 Los Angeles Chargers 21.9 4 $ 16,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000 9/22/1999
116 Tony Pollard RB033 Dallas Cowboys 24.3 3 $ 15,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 4/30/1997
117 Christian Kirk WR061 Arizona Cardinals 24.7 4 $ 15,000,000.00 $ 3,750,000 11/18/1996
118 Parris Campbell WR062 Indianapolis Colts 24.1 4 $ 15,000,000.00 $ 3,750,000 07/16/1997
119 Dallas Goedert TE009 Philadelphia Eagles 26.6 4 $ 15,000,000.00 $ 3,750,000 01/03/1995
120 Noah Fant TE010 Denver Broncos 23.7 4 $ 15,000,000.00 $ 3,750,000 11/20/1997
121 Chase Edmonds RB034 Arizona Cardinals 25.3 2 $ 12,000,000.00 $ 6,000,000 4/13/1996
122 Pat Freiermuth TE011 Pittsburgh Steelers 22.8 4 $ 15,000,000.00 $ 3,750,000 10/25/1998
123 Russell Gage WR063 Atlanta Falcons 25.6 2 $ 11,000,000.00 $ 5,500,000 01/22/1996
124 Robby Anderson WR064 Carolina Panthers 28.3 2 $ 11,000,000.00 $ 5,500,000 05/09/1993
125 Brandin Cooks WR065 Houston Texans 27.9 2 $ 11,000,000.00 $ 5,500,000 9/25/1993
126 Jarvis Landry WR066 Cleveland Browns 28.7 2 $ 11,000,000.00 $ 5,500,000 11/28/1992
127 Antonio Brown WR067 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33.1 1 $ 7,500,000.00 $ 7,500,000 07/10/1988
128 Marvin Jones Jr WR068 Jacksonville Jaguars 31.4 2 $ 11,000,000.00 $ 5,500,000 03/12/1990
129 Devante Parker WR069 Miami Dolphins 28.6 1 $ 5,500,000.00 $ 5,500,000 01/20/1993
130 Nyheim Hines RB035 Indianapolis Colts 24.8 2 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 11/12/1996
131 Aaron Rodgers QB016 Green Bay Packers 37.7 3 $ 15,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 12/02/1983
132 Russell Wilson QB017 Seattle Seahawks 32.7 4 $ 20,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 11/29/1988
133 Jalen Hurts QB018 Philadelphia Eagles 23.0 4 $ 19,000,000.00 $ 4,750,000 08/07/1998
134 Mac Jones QB019 New England Patriots 22.9 4 $ 18,000,000.00 $ 4,500,000 09/05/1998
135 Curtis Samuel WR071 Washington Football Team 25.0 3 $ 13,000,000.00 $ 4,333,333 08/11/1996
136 Mecole Hardman WR072 Kansas City Chiefs 23.4 4 $ 16,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000 03/12/1998
137 Tyler Johnson WR073 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23.0 4 $ 16,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000 8/25/1998
138 Hunter Henry TE012 New England Patriots 26.7 4 $ 16,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000 12/07/1994
139 Cole Kmet TE013 Chicago Bears 22.4 4 $ 16,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000 3/10/1999
140 Kirk Cousins QB020 Minnesota Vikings 33.0 3 $ 12,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000 08/19/1988
140 Robert Tonyan TE014 Green Bay Packers 27.3 2 $ 9,000,000.00 $ 4,500,000 4/30/1994
141 Carson Wentz QB021 Indianpolis Colts 28.6 3 $ 12,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000 12/30/1992
141 K.J. Hamler WR074 Denver Broncos 22.1 4 $ 12,000,000.00 $ 3,000,000 7/8/1999
142 Darrynton Evans RB036 Tennessee Titans 23.1 4 $ 12,000,000.00 $ 3,000,000 07/09/1998
143 Mike Gesicki TE015 Miami Dolphins 25.9 3 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 3,333,333 10/03/1995
144 Jonnu Smith TE016 New England Patriots 26.0 3 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 3,333,333 08/22/1995
145 Evan Engram TE017 New York Giants 27.0 3 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 3,333,333 09/02/1994
146 Gabriel Davis WR070 Buffalo Bills 22.4 4 $ 12,000,000.00 $ 3,000,000 04/01/1999
147 Gerald Everett TE017 Los Angeles Rams 27.1 2 $ 7,000,000.00 $ 3,500,000 06/25/1994
148 Harrison Bryant TE018 Cleveland Browns 23.3 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 04/23/1998
149 Dwayne Eskridge WR075 Seattle Seahawks 24.4 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 03/23/1997
150 Tylan Wallace WR076 Baltimore Ravens 22.3 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 05/13/1999
151 Kenneth Gainwell RB037 Seattle Seahawks 22.4 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 03/14/1999
152 Elijah Mitchell RB038 San Francisco 49ers 23.3 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 05/02/1998
153 Rhamondre Stevenson RB039 New England Patriots 23.5 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 02/23/1998
154 Gerrid Doaks RB040 Miami Dolphins 23.2 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 06/09/1998
155 Anthony Swartz WR077 Cleveland Browns 20.9 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 09/05/2000
156 Aj Dillon RB041 Green Bay Packers 23.3 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 05/02/1998
157 Chuba Hubbard RB042 Carolina Panthers 22.2 4 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 06/11/1999
158 Sam Darnold QB021 Carolina Panthers 24.2 2 $ 5,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 06/05/1997
159 Daniel Jones QB022 New York Giants 24.2 2 $ 5,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 05/27/1997
160 Logan Thomas TE018 Washington Football Team 30.1 2 $ 5,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 07/01/1991
161 Blake Jarwin TE019 Dallas Cowboys 27.1 2 $ 5,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 07/16/1994
162 Jacob Harris TE020 Los Angeles Rams 24.3 2 $ 5,000,000.00 $ 2,500,000 04/16/1997
163 Kenyan Drake RB043 Las Vegas Raiders 27.6 1 $ 5,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 01/26/1994
164 Melvin Gordon RB044 Denver Broncos 28.3 1 $ 5,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 04/13/1993
165 James Connor RB045 Arizona Cardinals 26.3 1 $ 5,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000 05/05/1995
More Analysis by Stephen Wendell