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IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

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By Jake

Updated: September 24th 2022

Welcome to week 3! Another fun week of fantasy football, but more fun if you are living that IDP fantasy life! One more week of data, a week to help establish real/true trends, and more film to interpret for our next set of decisions. As always, a reminder of what this article is here for,is to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of their IDP position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a start-able asset for each given week (or maybe more!). The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements. Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

As a quick refresher too, here were week two’s recommendations and how the “advice” went. Happy with my all sits, the Titans defense disappointed for me this week. Expected greater work from the key players in that front 7.
DL:
Start: Jeffery Simmons (1 PD)


Sit: Khalil Mack (.5 sack, 1 solo, 1 assist)


LB:

Start: David Long Jr. (1 solo, 1 assist)

Sit (Sell): Kamu Grugier-Hill (3 solo, 2 assist)

 

DB:
Start: Kyler Gordon (3 solos, 3 assist, 1 PD)

Sit: Jevon Holland (2 solos, 8 return yards)

 

START: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs, DL33

The new look Kansas City Chiefs are looking strong at 2-0 and a large part of this is thanks to the play of their defense as well. And at the core of the front 7 is Chris Jones, delivering strong performances for his team and for IDP fantasy. As such, he is a strong value start at DL33 from Fantasy Pros IDP week 3 rankings. He is checking those preliminary boxes for us in utilization (70%+ snap count through 2 weeks) and showing a top-end PFF pass-rush grade of 90+ as well.

What does this mean for week 3’s matchup? The Chiefs travel to Indianapolis and they struggled against a decent unit last week in the Jaguars and the Colts defense has looked weak so far this year and the Chiefs offense could turn this into a negative game script very quickly. Which means this front 7 can really pin its ears back and get after a very immobile Matt Ryan. Pair this with a Colts offensive line that has been bottom half of the league so far this year with Jones’ 17% pressure rate, we have a very strong path for Jones to continue adding pressure and likely converting a sack or two!

Jones is an easy DL2 this week and a must start in DT required leagues.

SIT: Marcus Davenport, New Orleans Saints, DL23

Marcus Davenport came on strong at the end of 2021 and was really starting to get people to believe in his 1st round draft capital and what he could be for the Saints as a premier edge rusher as Cameron Jordan is reaching the end of his career. However, his start to this season has been rather pedestrian, at best. Davenport has had slightly above average snap counts at around 60% of his snaps but he has delivered little excitement in the pass-rush department with a 6% pressure rate! He would need to be converting almost every pressure at that rate to be delivering consistent IDP value.

With a rough start, week 3 brings in the Carolina Panthers and some would say this would be the salve to what ails Davenport. However, I am predicting a shift in the Panthers focus and getting CMC more involved as he has shown the ability to be involved and gain further confidence in his ability to stay on the field. Along with the fact that many believe Matt Rhule is playing for his job at this point, and CMC sounds like a better bet than Baker Mayfield, in one man’s humble opinion. And if this is the case, Davenport has struggled to deliver in the run game as well this year, leading to just an overall disappointing IDP week.

START: Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers, LB23

Fred Warner has been an IDP stalwart for the last 4 seasons since coming into the league. Now, after two slow weeks to start his 2022 campaign, consensus ranks has him at LB23 this week! The 49ers have run a crazy low number of plays on defense at 53.5 per game over the last two weeks. Those are numbers that just aren’t realistic to last over the entirety of the season. On a 17 game pace, that would leave him almost 100 snaps lower than some of his 16 game seasons in terms of total snaps played. He has had some below average tackle efficiency which can be expected to happen at times, so some positive regression there, with increased overall snaps means stronger numbers are very likely in the future for Warner.

The Broncos have average around 65 snaps per game as an offense as well, so this should be a return to the norm for the 49ers defense and Warner is an asset who has proven year in and year out that he can deliver, just look at this IDP resume:

  • 79+ solo tackles every year
  • 115+ total tackles every year
  • 22+ TFLs over the last 4 years
  • 12 combined FF/FR over the last 4 years

All this to say, if anyone is out on Warner, buy the dip and ride the wave of success that should follow shortly after.

SIT: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins, LB27

Jerome Baker is getting full 100% snap count which is not always easy to find with any LB, so if he is getting that kind of usage, why would we want to be looking at sitting him them? Alignment. Week 1 he spent about 17% of his snaps on the defensive line rushing the passer and in week 2, that jumped way up to 53%. This utilization is a scary trend for Baker and if it continues or stays anywhere near that 50%. This has already shown up in his first two weeks performance with 7 total tackles between both and also only delivered 1 total pressure with all these pass rush attempts. This is a very-low 6% pressure rate and he hasn’t converted anything into further IDP production either.

Now for week 3, we see the Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills and this is not the team a pass rushing LB is going to right their ship. Baker might correct course here soon, but this week is not the one to do. With only 3 sacks allowed in the first two games, that is a big ask for Baker to be the one to come up with it with previous lack of success.

START: Terrell Edmunds, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB34

Terrell Edmunds is easily overshadowed by the other safety in Pittsburgh in Minkah Fitzpatrick. Minkah is out there breaking all logic in how deep safeties have historically produced IDP with crazy tackle numbers giving safe weekly floors with high-level play-making that delivers week winning performances. While all this is happening, Edmunds is quietly delivering success while getting the ideal utilization for a safety. He has gotten 100% of the defensive snaps while also playing 58% of his snaps inside the sweet spot!!!

With a tough divisional matchup in the Cleveland Browns which have been low-scoring games, and you have seen Cleveland continue to rely on their running game. With that consideration, these sweet spot snaps will become even more valuable. Edmunds is a strong DB2 this week and might be a candidate to watch for season-long  value as well.

SIT: Jonathan Owners, Houston Texans, DB26

Jonathan Owners has been a pleasant surprise to start this season. However, I am guessing most people have not played him much this season unless in a super deep league. He has put up an astounding 25 tackles through the first two games as well as a pass defensed. This is super impressive and why wouldn’t we want this in our lineup?!? Because he has played a ludicrous 81 snaps per game so far this year! OK, well, the Texans defense stinks, right? So they will keep getting more snaps, right? Enter the Chicago Bears. They have thrown 28 passes through 2 games this year and run the 2nd least amount of plays in 97 total plays.

Something has to give in this situation, and Jonathan Owens has played solidly with PFF grades around 63 for the season, but if I had to pick a side, I would lean away from the lack of previous production from Owens and the inflated opportunities about to come crashing back down this week against the Bears.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 2

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By Jake

Updated: September 16th 2022

It is week 2 of the NFL season! We now have a full game of “real” NFL football and data points to analyze and help guide our decision-making, but before we jump into this, a friendly reminder of what I am trying to do here. This article aims to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of their IDP position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a startable asset for each given week (or maybe more!). The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements. Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

As a quick refresher too, here were last week’s recommendations:
DL: Start Danielle Hunter. Sit Sam Hubbard
LB: Start Isaiah Simmons. Sit Anthony Walker Jr.
DB: Start Kyler Gordon. Sit (Fade) Jeremey Chinn

START: Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans, DL27

Jeffery Simmons had a standout first week, and generally speaking, you don’t want to chase box scores. However, Simmons supports his outcomes with some strong analytics. There are things that we have talked about needing from your defensive linemen to support the most likely successful outcomes for IDP assets. He meets the most basic foundation with a strong snap count at 87% (52 snaps in week 1) and along with that, strong pass-rush metrics that indicate continued success. His 2 sacks, 6 tackles, and a forced fumble were a strong week 1, but his strong performance should just be the beginning. He posted a pass rush grade of 90+ (via PFF) and an elite 21.4% pass rush win rate!

These indicators show us that he should continue to be a successful IDP contributor. Simmons as a DL27 this week is a crime and should be a candidate for trade target to pursue long-term if you don’t already have him on your roster. Tennessee’s offense looks like a shell of last year’s team, they will lean into this defense and Simmons looks to be the leader of it. Buy in now!

SIT: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL18

The ‘Mack Attack’ is back! Khalil Mack looked like prime Mack and me having him in the ‘Sit’ category probably has you wondering, what the heck am I talking about? Mack posted strong snap counts, a solid pass-rush win rate at 14.2%, and a very good PFF pash-rush grade of 79. So let’s cut to the point. These numbers came from the matchup with a bottom-third-rated offensive line in the Las Vegas Raiders. What I believe I saw was over-inflated production due to that favorable matchup. Mack is a solid contributor and in a much stronger defense than he has played with for the last few years in Chicago, and as such his production week-to-week will fluctuate more significantly. Chasing his high-weeks in managed lineups will be tricky, but a game against Kansas City and an offense with Mahomes that will find a way to slow down this pass rush with a Chiefs offensive line that now boosts itself as one of its strengths.

START: David Long, Tennessee Titans, LB16

David Long is shaping up to be a top 12-15 LB for the remainder of the season. Long showed flashes last season and now he is getting the chance to be the lead guy in Tennessee and it is paying off. He saw the field for 100% of the snaps (60 total in week 1) and he was able to be efficient with the snaps he was given. 8 tackles on 60 snaps equates to a tackle efficiency of 13.3%. This is slightly above average for LBs as it tends to float around 12% which is positive for his season-long productivity. He also had 3 missed tackles in week 1, both concerning as that is a bit high, but also exciting because there are more opportunities to rack up the production. This makes Long a great weekly starter in its own rights, but now combine that with the upside he showed in pass-rush, 5 pressures.

For this week he should see the tackle floor increase, as well as Josh Allen, has consistently funneled targets into the middle of the field in week 1 and we can see those right into the heart of David Long and his efforts making him a top 10 play this week.

SIT (SELL): Kamu Grugier-Hill, Houston Texans, LB4

Kamu Grugier-Hill absolutely balled out for IDP in week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts with an absurd 18 tackles (14 solo! and 4 assisted) along with a pass defensed. He is played as a true 3-down LB with 100% snaps of a ridiculous 92 SNAPS! This was also an, in my opinion, an unsustainable 19.5% tackle efficiency. He is still a very viable LB to play week in and week out, however, the LB4 ranking of Grugier-Hill for week 2 feels like a strong over-correction. 92 snaps is close to a 50% more than what you would expect in an average NFL game for defensive snaps, so paired with reduced snap and unsustainable tackle efficiency, now is the time to sell this belief that he is a top 5 IDP LB, especially in dynasty.

He was also in a very positive matchup against the Colts who focused heavily on the utilization of Jonathan Taylor which was very friendly to the Texans Cover 2 defense and Matt Ryan’s passing attack that focused on shorter to intermediate targets. With a matchup in week 2 against the Broncos, I believe we will see Russell Wilson actually begin to attack downfield versus the dump-off game we saw on Monday.

And the cherry on-top, Kamu is racking up IDP stats, however, his PFF grade leaves a ton to be desired (37.4 overall, ouch!) which for a Texans team that doesn’t seem to be likely competing for a playoff spot would have every reason to pull an underperformer and give a 3rd round rookie LB a chance to prove themself at some point this season too (Christian Harris anyone?). Along with the face that Grugier-Hill is in the final year of his contract too.

All this to say, sell high!

START: Jaquan Brisker, Chicago Bears, DB29

If you haven’t guess the theme here for people we want to have, let’s start with the full-time player for Brisker at 100% of the 68 snaps for the Chicago Bears. But for the secondary, we need those snaps and we need the ideal alignment which is in that “sweet spot” (21 box, 4 slot, 5 DL) for a total of 30 snaps there, for a very strong 44% there.

Now, this didn’t equate to top-tier IDP success with 4 solo tackles, 1 TFL, FR, but he showed to be around the ball consistently. Now looking forward to week 2, the Green Bay Packers will refocus on their run game with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to control the game, coach La Fleur has stated as much. But with more opportunities in the run game, will come more opportunities for people playing at or near the line of scrimmage to make more plays… enter, Brisker! Game script leans heavily towards Brisker getting these chances, making him a clear DB2 for this week.

SIT: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB22

Jevon Holland had a standout rookie year and respectable week 1 for the Dolphins against the Patriots. He was only able to deliver 3 tackles but had the rest of his day propped up by an interception which is a bet I am not willing to place week in and week out. Holland saw the full complement of snaps, 100% of the 57 snaps which is a great baseline to IDP relevance. However, Holland took 45 of those 57 at deep safety which are some of the least valuable IDP aligned snap we can get.

Week 2 Miami has the Ravens coming to town and their pass-to-rush ratio is close to 50% and that was with a depleted and inefficient backfield. If they can find any support with more talent in their backfield from J.K. Dobbins or the recently acquired Kenyan Drake gets more comfortable with the team, you should see even more plays at or around the line of scrimmage in this game, devaluing those deep snaps for IDP. Holland is a talented football player and play-maker, but for IDP, he is someone we might want to find a better DB2 option.

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IDP Sit/Start: Week 1

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By Jake

Updated: September 16th 2022

Welcome to my IDP Sit/Start Article for the 2022 NFL season. This article aims to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of the position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a startable asset for each given week. The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements! Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

Let’s get to it now that you know what I am trying to do!

START: Danielle Hunter, Minnesota Vikings, DL19

Danielle Hunter has that injury-prone label hanging over his head after back-to-back years of lost seasons (pectoral muscle in 2021, neck in 2020). This is scaring people off from what I strongly believe Danielle Hunter to be, and that is at tier 1 DL for IDP fantasy football. He meets the prerequisites of having pass rush win rates and pressures per game at elite levels when on the field. Secondly, throughout his career he has consistently seen around 80% of the defensive snaps each game and season and nothing has shown us that they are planning to bring that number down. Combine those points with the fact that Hunter is finally paired with another strong pass-rushing partner in offseason signing, Za’Darius Smith, Hunter has a path for success that should make him an every-week starter with top 8 DL upside for the entire season.

SIT: Sam Hubbard, Cincinnati Bengals, DL16

Sam Hubbard had a career year last season, in terms of sacks with 9 (tied career best), tackles at 62 (tied 2nd best), TFLs at 12 (career high), and QB hits with 17 (career high). These are strong numbers for where Hubbard was drafted last year and his perceived value. However, he did this on his highest snap total ever as well. His overall efficiency saw a drop but he delivered on volume. I am sure this is confusing at first because you are asking yourself, “Doesn’t Jake always say to chase volume for IDP?” And you would be right in every case. Volume is the first key to success for an IDP fantasy asset. The problem is, that volume came in what seemed more of a necessity than a desire. Hubbard and Hendrickson saw the vast majority of snaps as Joseph Ossai went down early last season. Ossai was an early round 3 pick (69th overall) and in the preseason, the Bengals were clearly showing signs of him being a key contributor. Once he went down, the Bengals didn’t have the talent or depth to replace that and just rode Hubbard and Hendrickson. With a full season to recover and prepare, Ossai will see an increased role which means a reduced snap count for Hubbard and Hendrickson. This means if you are looking for that high-end DL2 value, you are hoping he improves efficiency which is the less likely outcome.

START: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals, LB26

Isaiah Simmons has had an interesting path to his current situation as it exists today. He was a top 10 draft pick (8th overall, 2020) but found himself on the wrong end of the snap counts (376, 34%) and given praise coming into the season and the increased utilization in other spots on the field, Simmons is looking like the key piece of this defense that he was (presumably) drafted to be. He spent time working with the safeties this offseason and he was recently named the defensive play-caller (given the green dot) for week 1. This aligns with his increased usage last season (1,005 and 94%) and the departure of other key defensive pieces in Jordan Hicks and Chandler Jones.

Right, wrong, or indifferent on how we got to this point, but we are here, and that place is “Success-town”, population Isaiah Simmons. I am sure there are plenty of people who held on tight to Simmons and always had the belief. Others though were most likely scared off from the low utilization, the lack of responsibility given, and even offseason talks that Jalen Thompson (Cardinals’ safety) would be the defensive play-caller this year. To those people I say, now is the time to get Simmons into your starting lineups! His talent, utilization, and opportunities are going to meet in a perfect storm, giving you a top end LB play this week and probably most of this season.

SIT: Anthony Walker Jr., Cleveland Browns, LB27

Going back-to-back in the FantasyPros rankings after Simmons is Anthony Walker Jr., and even though it is only one spot behind him, I would move Anthony Walker even further down that list. The primary reason for this? He is not even the best LB on his team… he might not even be in the top 2 for some people, and that is the case for me. I have him behind Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Jacob Phillips as LB3. This LB room ambiguity was not well-known in Cleveland due to other conversations in Cleveland (starting QB anyone?). There has been a some waffling on the green dot wearer for week 1 and for the season.

With so many things in the way of Walker succeeding and NFL defenses running almost no 3 LB sets to try and “guarantee” that Walker gets the snaps needed to be relevant, I am not rolling the dice on Walker of all people in that LB room. For me, it is JOK or pass. And I would rather pursue other 3-down LBs on other teams that give a better upside overall.

START: Kyler Gordon, Chicago Bears, Unranked

I am getting super deep on this one, but am a big believer in the slot role in Matt Eberflus led defenses. Kenny Moore has shown with the physical toolsets, the right coaching, and the opportunity a cornerback can be relevant. With Matt Eberflus taking over in Chicago, Kyler’s high draft capital and strong RAS, and him taking the lead on the slot role, all things are pointing up for Kyler Gordon!

Kyler Gordon to me is a player that will see the valuable snaps on the field as he was announced as the starter in the slot position and has taken most of his snaps there in the last two preseason games. The presumed microcosm of all of this, his first snap from the slot starting in preseason week 2, Eberflus blitze Gordon from the slot. In my opinion, that is just the beginning for him. With him taking the bulk (if not all) of his snaps so close to the ball and line of scrimmage, he has what we look for in DBs even but moreso for those leagues that require CBs. Also, historically rookie cornerbacks tend to see a strong number of targets against them that keep the floor and value safe for Kyler as well. He is basically free at this point and I am picking up all the shares of Kyler everywhere I can.

SIT (Fade or Trade): Jeremy Chinn, Carolina Panthers, DB5

So this is tough one to treat as a true “sit”. If you spent the required draft capital to require Chinn, it may be hard to actual have Chinn on your bench come week 1 this season. However, let’s just look at what we can probably more realistically do with Chinn, and that is trade him for a “tier down” at DB and maybe something more in another player or draft capital. But why would you get rid of someone from your roster that is a consensus top 5 DB (redraft and dynasty)?

It breaks down to two key components and one consideration. The first being the fact that Chinn has thrived almost exclusively on his ability to rack up tackles while taking the bulk of his snaps in the “Sweet Spot” (Box, Slot, DL) and his production comes heavily from his tackle production. He has not show big-play tendencies from his first two seasons combined:

  • 2 sacks
  • 2 interceptions
  • 3 fumbles (2 forced, 1 recovered)
  • 10 passes defensed
  • 8 TFLs
  • 10 QB hits

And this preseason he has taken 8 snaps in the “Sweet Spot” and 23 at free safety with new teammate, Xavier Woods, taking the bulk of those valuable snaps while they were both on the field. Knowing the usage looking like this and his past success heavily predicated on tackles (which are more easily achieved from the “Sweet Spot”), getting out on Jeremy Chinn now would be the best chance to maximize his value before it starts to potentially shift. Is this to say that if Chinn’s positional play shifts to a deep safety role he can’t produce? No, we have seen others do this; Justin Simmons and Minkah Fitzpatrick are great examples, but also tend to be the outliers. Chinn is good, but his value might be at his highest it will ever be right now, so now is the time to sell!

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Evaluating Rushers into 2022

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: August 8th 2022

Evaluating running backs is a notoriously difficult task using many basic statistics as running back production relies extensively on many factors outside of the back’s control.  The often cited “yards per carry” is one of the single worst NFL statistics in evaluating a player because of these issues.  The following takes a deeper dive evaluating rushing performance by more useful criteria.

The Data

I aggregate 2018-2021 data of running backs with at least 100 carries during that timeframe creating a four-year sample of 112 running backs.  This gives a big enough sample to matter while keeping the data relevant to the evaluation of current NFL players. This article focuses on three key rushing metrics from Pro Football Reference on a per attempt basis: Yards Before Contact (YBC), Yards After Contact (YAC), and Broken Tackles (BRK) to evaluate a group of running backs heading into 2022.

These metrics all depend on outside factors independent of running back skill to some degree.  As examples: offensive line, scheme, situation, and running back role all potentially influence yards before contact; downfield blocking may affect yards after contact;  broken tackle rate can be influenced by how quickly second and later defenders get to the ball carrier.   With that being said, broken tackle rate is widely considered among the most running back independent measures.  The data also suggests it influences yards after contact.  An increase in broken tackle rate correlates with an increase in yards after contact as seen in the plot below.   Yards before contact, on the other hand, displays minimal to no relationship to yards after contact or broken tackle rate (R2 = 0.00 for both) in the data set.

As always, nothing is absolutely certain.  Sometimes we don’t have the available data to properly segregate individual player influences.  Ben Linsey makes an anecdotal case for running back influence on yards before contact:  “The evidence points toward running backs with plus speed and vision being able to consistently avoid contact despite middling to below-average blocking in front of them.”  So, while yards before contact is likely the most team-dependent metric of the three focused in on this article, running back skill also influences it.

The following highlights a number of interesting players heading into the season with ranks of (broken tackles, yards after contact, and yards before contact) from the data sample.

Quality 2nd Year Running Backs to Watch

The hype for Javonte Williams (1 BRK, 33 YAC, 55 YBC) remains strong going into his second season largely due to his ability to break tackles which translated from college.  Williams essentially broke the broken tackle metric in this sample as the top-ranked back.  He more than doubled the average broken tackle rate and was about 18% higher than the next running back in this metric.  The Denver offense should increase scoring opportunities with Russell Wilson at the helm.  The main question is how much Williams’ role increases this year.  Melvin Gordon (27, 35, 47) is absolutely a quality back but wasn’t a priority free agent for the Broncos and only resigned for a marginal deal after failing to secure a bigger contract elsewhere.

Many people call Najee Harris (13, 39, 98) a plodder due to his sub-4 yards per carry figure from his first year.  This is far from the truth.  Pittsburgh’s abysmal offensive line led to one of the worst yards before contact numbers in the dataset which distorted his per carry numbers.  He’s going to get a ton of touches in this offense (which we care about for fantasy).  The offensive line and offense still projects poorly going into the season though.

Elijah Mitchell (44, 15, 57) ranks very similarly to Saquon Barkley (43, 12, 86) and Jonathan Taylor (54, 11, 10) in broken tackles and yards after contact.  San Francisco provides an excellent environment to rack up yards before contact also if Mitchell is able to maintain a hold on most of the rushes.  The lack of passing game utilization for 49er backs limits fantasy upside.

Many project Breece Hall to immediately assume a true workhorse-type role for the Jets after the New York traded up in the 2nd round to get him.  Michael Carter (20, 25, 79) meanwhile performed admirably in a challenging situation last season.  He might just be too good to completely take out of a meaningful role in New York.

Rhamondre Stevenson (3, 8, 91) looked borderline unstoppable at times last year plowing through prospective tacklers for New England.  Does a path exist for him to take over the main back duties or contribute significantly in the passing game?  Incumbent starter Damien Harris (40, 46, 16) ranked as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd highest graded running backs each of the last two seasons.  The Patriots possess an impressive duo at running back no matter how the split plays out.

Green Bay Running Backs

Aaron Jones (25, 22, 15) and AJ Dillon (11, 23, 64) also form one of the butter running back duos for any NFL team.  They complement each other in ways which allow the Packers to utilize both in optimal situations but are both diverse enough to use alone without giving away the play call.  They both make for quality fantasy targets at cost on a Green Bay team without much in the way of proven receiving options.

Josh Jacobs

If one made a list of the most underrated NFL running backs, Josh Jacobs (18, 34, 87) would have to be near the top.  He sits among the most technically sound rushers in the league.  Jacobs ranks as one of the most evasive workhorse backs in the league over the last few seasons.  Only Nick Chubb (6, 1, 39), who I consider the top rusher in the league, compares with Jacobs in terms of making tacklers miss among lead backs as seen in the table below.

Most Forced Missed Tackles on Runs | Since 2019 per Pro Football Focus

Unfortunately for Jacobs, he’s another back stuck behind an awful offensive line the last couple of seasons as evidenced by his 87th ranked yards before carry and probably isn’t getting much better this season.  Some situational concerns also exist with a new coaching staff in Las Vegas this year and failure to utilize the 5th year rookie contract option but Jacobs is in a class of his own for Raiders’ running backs.

Concerns for Cam Akers

It’s been a rough start for Cam Akers (106, 56, 65) who I liked coming out of college.  A devastating Achilles injury short-circuited his second year before it began (he remarkably made his return in 2021, albeit ineffectually) after flashing at the end of his rookie season.  Unfortunately Akers’ body of work leaves a lot to be desired.  He hasn’t shown to be particularly good at any rushing aspect so far. Akers ranks among the worst tackle breakers in the data set next to players past their prime and backups.

Bottom-10 in Broken Tackle Rate

We also don’t know how effective he will be as the history of recovery from Achilles injuries is not encouraging, particularly for running backs.  The Rams were dead last in running back target rate for Stafford’s first season and the offensive line struggles in run blocking.  Akers’ fantasy case really rests on a presumed large rushing workload with touchdown upside for an efficient passing offense.

Cordarrelle Patterson probably won’t Repeat 2021

2021 produced a nice fantasy story for Cordarrelle Patterson (99, 76, 67), the long-time multi-purpose player in his age 30 year.  He beat his previous high in receiving yards and destroyed his previous rushing totals.  Atlanta cast Patterson as the main rusher primarily due to a lack of viable running back options.  The main problem is Patterson just wasn’t very good rushing the ball ranking below average in most categories.  This lack of success shouldn’t be a surprise as Patterson specialized as a returner with occasional wide receiver gadget plays on offense during his career.  While Patterson should maintain some role on offense with plays in the passing game, it’s difficult imagining the Falcons continuing using him as a significant portion of the run game unless his fellow Atlanta running backs fail miserably again.

Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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Looking Forward: Expectations for the NFL Salary Cap

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: June 23rd 2022

Covid issues created unique salary cap problems for the NFL following the 2020 season.  The NFL salary cap unexpectedly dropped substantially after significant NFL revenue losses in 2020.  The article details a brief history of recent cap progression to the current state and what we can expect in the future.  The writing also examines how Reality Sports Online GMs may take advantage of the changing cap.

What happened?

Many teams played with near-empty stadiums primarily due to state Covid restrictions drastically reducing ticket and game day revenue while also seeing TV ratings dip in 2020.  This resulted in the NFL losing approximately $3 to $4 billion in revenue that season.  The NFL collective bargaining agreement (CBA) dictated those losses applied to the following year’s salary cap which would have resulted in the cap dropping by about $70 to $80 million in 2021.  NFL owners and the NFL Players Association, however, came to an agreement in which those losses would be spread out over a three year period instead of the single year.  In effect, the NFL would have three seasons of relatively modest below-market salary caps versus one year with a massive salary cap reduction.  This move mitigated potentially disastrous team salary cap problems throughout the league and kept players from seeing drastic salary reduction in 2021.

What does the Salary Cap look like going forward?

The NFL salary cap averaged about 7% annual growth in the seven years before the 2021 season.  The 2020 CBA increased player revenue shares to 48%+ in 2021 and going forward while an anticipated new TV deal was also expected to raise revenue significantly.   An 8.5% annual growth in the NFL salary cap for the near-term future was a reasonable projection prior to the 2020 season.  The new TV contract, sports betting deals, and potential international expansion may result in even bigger increases.

The chart below displays some of the effects on expectations to the salary cap due to the decreased revenues of 2021 and projections going forward using growth estimates stated above.  The NFL salary cap decreased from $198.2 million in 2020 to $182.5 million in 2021.  While this was only about a $16 million cap decrease, it also probably translated to approximately $30 or $35 million less cap space than NFL teams were planning for before 2020.  The 2022 cap is set to grow a hearty 14% from 2021 but the cap will still be far below what was expected previously.  2023 will show much the same.  These cap decreases have had real NFL consequences, particularly for those teams who were already up against the cap and essentially borrowing against future cap to pay for current player production.  New Orleans and Dallas, for example, were forced to trade individuals (Amari Cooper) for little compensation or allow players to hit free agency (Terron Armstead) they would have preferred to keep if not for cap restraints.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual and Projected NFL Salary Cap 2020-2025

Things get back to normal in 2024, in terms of the salary cap, as the 2020 revenue losses will have been fully accounted for after the 2023 season.  One consequence of this is that 2024 should see an enormous spike in the league salary cap with $40 to $50 million cap increases possible depending on further adjustments.  We have already seen teams calibrating for this reality by heavily back-loading contracts (more than normal) and increasing the usage of “dummy” contract years (items such as voided years at the end of the contract in which the player won’t actually play on the contract but serves as a way to extend cap accounting into the future).

The Los Angeles Rams provide a nice example of this.  Many question how the Rams keep paying big money extensions to players on the team.  They are simply using the rules of cap accounting and taking into account the expected explosion in future team cap.  Matthew Stafford’s contract contains cap hits of just $13.5 million and $20 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively, then balloons to about $50 million per year in future seasons.  Aaron Donald’s new contract added multiple voided years at the end of the deal to help spread his signing bonus over.

What this means for Reality Sports Online GMs

As most Reality Sports Online (RSO) GMs know, RSO mirrors the NFL salary cap in that the NFL salary cap equals the RSO salary cap.  This means we can also expect the RSO salary cap to also dramatically increase over the next few seasons.  The previous Salary Cap Chart from above shows expected cap growth rates of 11% (2023), 19% (2024), and 8.5% (2025 and forward).  Let us see how this compares to RSO contracts.  RSO multi-year deals distribute the total value of a contract based on the number of years resulting in small salary escalations (between 6% and 10%) in each subsequent year.  The four-year contract example from RSO is detailed below starting in 2022 with expected salary cap figures from our previous estimates.

Reality Sports Online Example Contract (4 year / $100 million total value)

“Expected Cap % “is the RSO salary divided by the expected cap. Most notably, compare the RSO contract salary growth rates with the expected cap growth rates above. The NFL Salary cap shows much higher expected growth than the contract salaries. The RSO example contract salary displays a 27% growth rate from year one to four while the salary cap is expected to rise by 43 percent during that period. This results in salaries taking a smaller portion of the expected total cap during the later contract years. In other words, the real expected yearly value of the RSO contract rises as the contract progresses.

The biggest takeaway for RSO GMs is that they should be more willing to invest in long-term contracts than ever before. Acquiring new multi-year deals in free agency and trading expiring contracts for existing long-term contracts should be a strategy focus for many teams. Hits on locked multi-year contract deals could become more valuable with time and misses make for more palatable release candidates with less cap consequences.

Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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Inaugural High Stakes league ’22 update 2

Reply

By Matt Russell

Updated: June 4th 2022

After an emotional or intense experience, you’re likely to say some things differently than you would after you cool down from your climax, think about things, and come back with a rational approach instead of an emotional one.  But even after a couple of weeks I still have to ask, was your rookie draft as good for you as it was for me? <Takes final puff of his smoke and flicks it>

A great draft starts with a great game plan.  You have to set yourself up for success.  But, as we all know, even the best-laid plans can turn into an Amber Heard turd on Johnny Depp’s pillow quicker than you can snort a line of cocaine.  Still, I believe when you enter with a plan and things start to go awry, you can adapt better when you have an end game to look at.  It’s like seeing a whole map with multiple routes that will get you to the finish.  Sure, there is the optimal way.  That’s the one you build your plan around.  Then a tanker explodes on the toll road so you look at your map and find the best alternate route at that time of day.  With no map or plan, you’re just off on a Sunday drive.  I’ve had four RSO rookie drafts this year and this one was one of my first so a plan was important.  By the time my other drafts started a week later, I had a really good idea of landing spots for players.  Still, there was one draft where an early run on mid-tier RB’s surprised me and left me in a different position than I expected to be in.  The alternate route got me there, albeit with a couple of lower-tiered guys than I expected.  However, I finished the High Stakes league draft mostly happy as the majority of it went according to plan.

As we explore this rookie draft the details of our league are important to understand each team’s approach.  This is a Superflex PPR league that has a full starting lineup that looks like this: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, RB/WR/TE, QB/RB/WR/TE.  That’s a total of 9 starting spots along with 13 bench spots and an additional four IR spots.  So, the rosters go deep enough to call us spelunkers.

First, let me give some general notes and thoughts.

  • 7 trades during this draft.  There are multiple times leading up to the draft to make trades but ever since RSO introduced the slow draft with trading some years ago, it has taken drafting, and draft values, to another level.  The ability to trade into a position to “grab your guy”  or even just to grab a player of value who has fallen too far, enables us to pinpoint our timing while allowing the other owner to benefit from not seeing the value in the same pick.  It’s a great feature that makes you feel like Kevin Costner in Draft Day.
  • QB’s went too early.  That’s just an opinion.  I did my homework before this draft and expected something much different to play out.  Let me explain why and feel free to comment on my social media whether you think it was a logical approach – We only had one rookie draft before this year.  It’s our third year in the league but we didn’t have a rookie draft in year one.  So, to get an idea of where the QB values lie we have to look at last year’s draft.  TLaw at 1.01.  Fields at 1.03.  Lance at 1.07.  Zach Wilson 1.09.  Mac Jones, the 15th pick in the NFL draft, went at 2.02 in our draft.  Doesn’t it seem reasonable to expect Pickett, an NFL 20th draft pick, to be available at 2.02 this year?  Well, it wasn’t.  Pickett was snatched at 1.10.  Last year, 3rd round NFL draft pick Mond was picked at 2.12, 2nd round NFL draft pick Trask was picked at 3.02, and 3rd round NFL draft pick Davis Mills was picked at 3.03.  Doesn’t it seem reasonable that this year’s tier trio of Willis, Ridder, and Corral would go near the end of the 2nd round and possibly well into the 3rd round of our draft?  I think it sounds very reasonable, however, all three were gone by 2.06.  That’s barely behind Pickett.  Even NFL 5th rounder and big-time chicken nuggies fan, Sam Howell, got some early 3rd round love at 3.01.  A lack of options changed the landscape for draft expectations this year.  Plus, individual needs can also affect these outcomes.  Clearly, it’ll be good for me to include additional data sets for my homework next year.  Fact is, if you didn’t reach a little this year, you didn’t get a QB.
  • The Wendell Takeover Project made the first big move of the draft in a rather straight-up trade consisting of their ’23 first for this year’s 1.06.  Wendell lost their only RB in McCaffrey due to a bloated contract of around $53m that needed cut to get cap compliant at the deadline, three days before the draft.  This left them hungry for a RB so they made their move to grab the polarizing prospect, James Cook.  With only so many upper-tier prospects at RB this year, Cook was the cheapest and this is a PPR league, after all, which is where he should shine.  Wendell next used their 2nd round pick to grab Rachaad White.  Then, about 10 days after the draft ended, they moved DK Metcalf in a deal to acquire Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake, completing a full revamp of the RB position this offseason.
  • Last year’s champ, “The Don” Piccolo, found a lot of value later in the ’21 rookie draft with picks 1.12 (Waddle), 2.02 (Mac Jones), 2.08 (Gainwell), 2.10 (Amon-Ra), and 3.05 (Chuba).  Almost every one of those names played a role in this squad taking home the title and at least three of those names provided an absolute massive value.  “The Don” entered this ’22 draft in pretty much the same position with no 1st round picks and many 2nd and 3rd round picks.  Can they make the magic happen again?  If last year is any indication, keep your eyes on these prospects that “The Don” drafted: (Traded up to 2.01) Skyy Moore, (2.06) Malik Willis, (2.12) David Bell, (3.04) Wan’Dale Robinson, and (3.12) Justyn Ross.
  • Speaking of last year, we have replaced one owner.  The new owner now sports the team name Ballin on a Budget.  I think this owner did most of his damage before and after the draft.  Regardless, it’s hard to recognize this team from the one they took over in March.  Just a completely new look.  This new look and new owner came to the draft with a new and interesting approach as well.  Only two draft picks, late in round 2, and they used them both on TE’s.  Zach Ertz looks to be their number one but Tre McBride and Greg Dulcich will get to develop for one year behind him.  McBride also provides a handcuff scenario for Ertz.
  • Last year’s runner-up, XFL Stars, didn’t have much faith in this draft class.  They traded away all their picks except the 1.03.  It wasn’t like they didn’t try to trade that one away either but they apparently got no worthwhile bites and had to settle for Drake London.  I’m thinking about offering a ham sandwich for London to see where his value is with this owner.

Now, for a few thoughts from my perspective as the draft progressed.  Going into this draft I didn’t feel like I needed much help at WR.  Although, I lack an elite at the position.  No help is needed at TE.  RB was my biggest need – I wanted to stock up here.  And I could use a QB, but I wasn’t as desperate for one.  Shortly before the draft, I acquired Jordan love (2yrs/$3m) and Cole Kmet (1yr/$1.5m) for the 2.03 pick.  I already have Aaron Rodgers through ’23 and Jameis through ’24 so Love gives me a handcuff.  Plus, on the outside chance he gets traded into a better situation, maybe I get a starter out of the deal.  So, I’ve got the 1.02, 1.12, 2.02, and 3.09.  The plan?  RB at 1.02 of course.  A 2nd RB with one of my next two picks and one pick for wiggle room where I don’t end up with a RB necessarily – I can grab a WR but I’m hoping to get a QB, or a RB, if not.

The draft opens and Big Tings is on the clock.  They announce one last check on the room to see if there is any interest in trading up for the pick and they get no love.  Smart move to ask but they take the obvious choice in Breece Hall.  When it gets to me I don’t hesitate long.  I need a RB here and have to take Walker.  Now to watch the WR’s take over like they did in the NFL draft.  The first pick that affected me was Kenny Pickett at 1.10.  I wasn’t totally shocked but was really hoping he would fall to me at 1.12.  I also had dreams that maybe James Cook would fall this far too but no such luck as Wendell snatched him at 1.06.  Now, I’m eyeballing that second tier of RB’s.  I have them ordered but see them all similarly.  It gets to me at 1.12 and all five are still on the board so I decide I can trade back.  I have the 2.02 coming up also so I feel comfortable moving back from 1.12, up to five spots or so. I find my trade partner in the DC Guardians who owns exactly that 2.05 spot.  They throw in a ’23 2nd rounder and we have ourselves a deal!  They grab Zamir White, the first of those second-tier RB’s, and that completes round one.

The draft is back to me at 2.02.  Plus, I have the 2.05 coming up.  Four of those RB’s are left.  I don’t need a WR here and I think it’s too early to draft one of those second-tier QB’s.  I was ok with any of the RB’s I would end up with at 2.05 now as well.  I consider trading back again but keep looking at the trade board and WR, Jahan Dotson keeps looking back at me.  He’s clearly the last of the upper tier of WR’s.  I don’t need one but I decide that because he’s a first-round NFL talent that he has the potential to turn into my missing elite WR.  We’ll see.  But, I just couldn’t pass up the value of getting him at the 2.02.  After that, I was certain those RB’s would start going.  To my surprise, the next two picks were QB’s Ridder and Corral and it’s back to me at 2.05.  Those QB’s really threw me off – I had them ranked 20th plus.  I didn’t want to miss out on a QB but I felt it was a reach right here and stuck with my rankings.  I also had Willis ranked lower in this league as I wanted a QB who would have a better chance of contributing this year.  I explored some trade options but didn’t want to go back too far and I couldn’t get any bites near the positions I wanted.  Looks like I’ll just have to take a RB here.  Like at QB, I preferred a RB who would have the best chance to contribute the most this year.  I felt that guy was Dameon Pierce.  At this point, I felt I reached my objective of improving my RB’s for this season and I resigned to the fact that I was probably done drafting in the 2nd round.  Knowing I had the 3.09 I thought I’d have a good chance to grab QB Howell at that spot or, add one more RB like Allgeier or Davis-Price (since I owned Sermon).

The third round opens up and Howell goes first at 3.01.  Isn’t that something.  at 3.03 Allgeier is off the board.  3.05 sees Davis-Price drop too.  All three guys I had targeted – poof.  Gone, like a fart in the wind.  It’s at this point I spot another good value on the board.  I don’t go until 3.09 but my local grocery store will tell you I’m a sucker for a good deal or a discount.  Alec Pierce is still there?  Wow.  Seems like a pretty good deal to me.  I think a little tidbit of news was dropped that same day that said he was going to be a starter and I just watched him get picked at 1.12 in my other draft so it seemed like Pierce would be a great value at that spot.  I mean, if he drops to me at 3.09, which isn’t much further, he’s an even better value.  But, I’m always up for a deal and I’m not sure he will drop.  It’s Borderland Bombers on the clock and I look at their lineup.  I see Raheem Mostert (2y/$13m).  I also have Chase Edmonds and Sony Michel.  Not to mention that bum Trey Sermon whose contract I’ve been trying to move since the ’22 season began (3y/$13m).  So, I see an opportunity to get rid of Sermon and acquire Mostert.  I don’t expect anything from either of them this year but having Mostert fill that spot over Sermon just makes sense since I have the other Miami RB’s.  I have a good amount of future picks I had been stacking so for me to offer up a future 3rd and my 3.09 plus Sermon (Which reduces Borderland Bombers’ salary this season – something they needed help with) to get Mostert and that 3.06, I was very happy to do.  I was subsequently happy to get NFL 2nd round talent, Alec Pierce, at 3.06.  Even if I didn’t need another WR.

That’s how you do it.  This team is going to win a championship in ’22.  I can feel it.  If not my team, then, definitely one of the other eleven teams, and I’d put money on that.

As we drift off to sleep during the fantasy doldrums of June and July I hope you enjoy dreaming of the fall season you’ve so carefully crafted for yourself.  I know Kenneth Walker and a 1500-yard season will be prancing around in mine.  You’ll hear from me again sometime in the preseason.  Until then, feel free to send me a note or comment on any of my posts you’ll find on social media.  Find me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter @RSOHighStakes.

 

~ The RSO High Stakes League Storyteller

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